JULY has arrived and with it the scales of history come poised to weigh the three-year-olds against their elders. While the first half of any year is devoted to finding the best of the Classic generation, the second measures the crop's absolute worth in the wider setting of all-age racing.
One peculiarity with the current group of sophomores is that
Camelot is the standout number one, but there is almost no hierarchy to the remainder of the crop.
The Ballydoyle colt is simply outstanding. Not only is he the sole three-year-old to have shown top class ability, he also outshines his contemporaries in consistency, versatility and, indeed, potential for improvement.
The other European three-year-old colts all lack one or more of those attributes, creating this 'one-beats-melee' situation. Until the sophomores run against the older division it is not entirely clear what this means.
It could be that Camelot is easily beating an up-to-scratch bunch of three-year-olds, making him a superstar to rival
Frankel, it could be that he is simply a normal three-year-old champion and the rest are entirely useless, or it could be that he is an above-average champion and the rest are slightly below average.
In terms of ratings distribution, it is more likely to be the either first or last options and, given the complete lack of hierarchy behind Camelot, you would have to tend towards the latter.
That doesn't put a limit on how good the dominant leader may prove to be, but it does suggest he may be the benefactor of a slightly below-par crop of Classic rivals. This theory will be put to the test in the coming months.
We already know the 2,000 Guineas form is not worth much. The time was two seconds slower than Homecoming Queen clocked in the 1,000 Guineas and runner-up French Fifteen has been unable to boost or even confirm the form in two subsequent starts.
The Derby runners have had mixed fortunes since, with fourth-placed Thought Worthy seemingly improving next time out to finish third in the King Edward VII, while third-placed Astrology flopped in the same race before being used as a pacemaker for Camelot on Saturday.
But the worry over the quality of the Classic crop is not restricted to just the Classics. The St James's Palace Stakes, for instance, was an opportunity for some new blood to enter the fray.
Most Improved (118) had been talked up as a potential leading three-year-old miler. There was a chance he might have rushed in and torn the sophomores a new A-lister, but in only winning by three-quarters of a length from Hermival, he simply joined the melee.
There is only one A-lister; Camelot is way out in front on RPRs. His Epsom success earned him a mark of 128+ and his RPR of 122 for the Guineas means he is still the top-rated three-year-old miler in Europe.
Behind the Ballydoyle big gun there is a yawning gap. French Fifteen (121) and Born To Sea (120) are next best, but neither of those are rock solid. The French horse has been beaten twice since the Guineas, while the horse with the famous brothers earned his best figure under terrible conditions in the Irish Derby on Saturday.
The early indicators are not great but it is the coming months which will determine how we look back on the Classic form.
One guide to its worth will come in the all-age Group 1s at the back-end of the season. In recent years it has not been hard for the sophomores, often in receipt of a handy weight-for-age allowance, to defeat their seniors at Group 1 level.
On average five sophomores per year manage to win all-age Group 1s in Europe and in recent years there has been a minimum of three. That includes the class of 2007, who lost two of their leading players (Teofilo, Holy Roman Emperor) as juveniles, but still produced Authorized, Sakhee's Secret and Darjina.
Last year, even with Pour Moi ruled out after the Derby, Frankel, Dream Ahead, Excelebration, Danedream, Nathaniel, Immortal Verse and Moonlight Cloud all did the business for the three-year-olds.
There are three reasons that this year may not live up to the recent sophomore successes: 1. The older horses (Frankel, Excelebration, Cirrus Des Aigles, St Nicholas Abbey) are very good. 2. With one exception, the sophomores appear to be not very good. 3. Camelot may only race one against his elders - in the Arc.
Other than Camelot, it is hard to see where the Group 1 all-age winners might come from. The form in the book is not good enough for any other three-year-old to beat the old boys in top-flight company, so we should keep an eye out for potential improvers.
Given that none of the highest-rated performances have come from particularly progressive individuals, it may pay to look for something further down the order. Or perhaps it would pay more to simply write them all off?
Could this be the year we get no three-year-old winners at all in the all-age division? Or maybe just one?
One thing's for sure: if you do manage to find another sophomore who can make his or her mark against the best, you're sure to get a decent price.
Until then, much like an equine Germany presiding over his very own Eurozone crisis, it all rests on Camelot.
With the trainers of all five runners complaining that their horse didn't handle the ground, the Irish Derby on Saturday may as well have been run in treacle.
Camelot's "wheels were spinning", it was "too testing" for Akeed Mofeed and Light Heavy "couldn't get his feet out of the ground". None of these horses will be risked in such conditions again, so their ability to handle it matters little.
The winner confirmed his class with an RPR of 123+ and Born To Sea (120) showed he has the stamina of his mother and brothers rather than the speed of his father. But nothing really handled it and the form should be handled cautiously - or not at all.
