Irish Derby

sunybay

sunybay

At the Start
Joined
May 4, 2003
Messages
4,184
Location
Madrid
Ruler Of The World (6/5), Libertarian (7/2), Trading Leather (6), Galileo Rock (8), Sugar Boy (8), Battle Of Marengo (14), Festive Cheer (20), Little White Cloud (33), Count Of Limonade (50), Cap Orushes (100), Ralston Road (100)
 
I'm against the fav at the price. Trading Leather is the bet at 6/1 e/w. I would love to see Hayes win it on Sugar Boy. It's a very good betting heat.
 
I think he's too short. He was only holding them at bay at Epsom, not getting away from them.
 
I don't think there's any realistic chance of anything behind him at Epsom getting any closer, let alone past him. It's just a question of of whether something that bypassed Epsom is good enough, and that's highly doubtful.
 
I think is between the 2 favorites
Slight preference for Libertarían in a course that will suit more.
 
Stats are there to be broken Edgt! And the horse who had no right on the form book to make the frame at Epsom, but still finished 3rd at 25/1, improving a great deal in the process.... was obviously Galileo Rock. Connections obviously fancied him to improve for the step up in trip to 12F, before The Derby his form wasn't saying much. I think he'll stay well, and I don't think a strong pace will be a bother either with the Godolphin pacemaker in.
 
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And O'Brien has won this seven years n the bounce with worse horses than ROTW. Difficult to see past the fav.
 
Where is Libertarian going after the race ? The blue bin or if they want the horse to retain his connection with Buick , Gosden ?
 
At my reckoning 1972 was the last time Epsom Derby winner was beaten by an Epsom rival at The Curragh when he ran no race behind Steel Pulse 8th at Epsom.
Before that 1969 Prince Regent, considered unlucky at Epsom when 3rd, got the better of Blakeney, who came 4th.
 
I think this is a 2 horse race

What surprise me is some people saying ROTW was less suited by Epsom or the pace rather than Libertarian.

They are likely to face firmer ground.

Ballydoyle would be better suited by a slow pace seeing the pace he showed at Epsom but if You can see a horse not handling Epsom Libertarían was and i think the first 2 in the betting have a similar chance , so the value is with Buicks horse.
 
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