Irish Election Betting

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
9,534
Location
Llandubno, West Wales (very west)
I like having a punt on politics. I have just spent an hour trawling through the prices of Boyles and Paddy Power, and have come to the conclusion that they are dirty sneaky colluding bastards.

There is one bet that I cannot resist, and that is on the number of Green Party seats in the election.

It is going to be 1 or zero. However, I think that 1 has a chance, as Trevor Sargeant has a very good machine in Dublin North, and was seen as being very honest in how he took his medicine after his resignation.

He is Evs with Boyles to get elected, and I think that is about right. So 2/1 about the Greens to get 1 seat is the bet.

I reckon that none of the other Greens have a chance of geting elected:

Gogarty exposed as a moron
White swing will take her well out of contention in Carlow Kilkenny
Cuffe is 8s and should be about 80 to 1 to get in in DL, which has only 4 seats in this election
John Gormley is in a really tough constituency. If Quinn doesn't bring in his running mate, Somerville or Mannix Flynn are far more likely to get in ahead of the Green leader.
Eamo Ryan is the only danger to this bet in Dublin South, but I think he will be wiped.
 
What was their core vote before they got into government as I think they did enough to get those voters back onside in the last 6 months.
 
Their core vote was probably 1.5-3%, and they are currently at 1% in the polls, but I feel that this is unimportant really when considering how many seats a smaller party will get.

Here are some figures. Sinn Féin had 7.5% of the vote in 2007. 5 seats. Green Party had 3.8% of vote in 2002. 6 seats. PDs had 4.7% of votes in 1992. 10 seats. Sinn Fein had 2.6% of vote in 1997. 1 seat.

Probably not making the point very well, but in parties this small, it is fairly easy to weigh up the chances of their candidates in individual constituencies and make a judgement. And I think they have 1 50-50, 1 possible and 4 no-hopers.
 
I know what you mean but I think you might be underestimating the determination of their core vote in places like DLR and South Dublin.

I think you know the nutters I'm talking about. Wouldn't give SVP a fiver but bequeath all their Worldly possessions to the cat.
 
I feel Trev was unjustly treated in being made to resign from govt, but his staged resignation as party leader to supposedly honourably allow the Greens move into govt with FF left a bit of a bitter taste. The really honourable thing to do was leave the green party and castigate those left for making the decision. Even with that, I think he's one of the more dedicated politicians and seems a decent enough bloke, so I'd like to see him get back in.

As for the original question of whether he's worth a bet to get in, I haven't a clue.

Of all the greens I think Ryan is the one most in danger of being tainted with the FF association - less reserved in his promotion of the govt line than others. Again seems one of the more competent politician (as idealists are want to be). And again I haven't a clue whether he's in danger of being elected.
 
I know what you mean Sheikh, but I think you underestimate the opposition and dynamics in those constituencies.

Take DLR. It is now a 4seater. Cuffe got in by the skin of his teeth the last time. Gilmore has a great chance of getting Bacik over the line. RBB will probably get in and FG are a shoo in for a seat. And then Hanafin will be fighting for her seat. And the second FG would also be above Cuffe. I make him #7 fav, probably #8 fav in the constituency.

And Dublin South has 5 seats but I think that Shatter, White and Mitchell are shoo-ins. That leaves 2 seats, and I would be amazed if Shane Ross misses out. So Ryan is in a bunfight with

Corrigan who may get the Kitt vote
White's running mate who will benefit from the Labour swing
The 3rd Fine Gaeler (don't discount this)

For 1 seat. And I think I would make FF the fav in that scenario. Ahead of the greens, as if you are talking about core in Dublin South, FF would trump the tree huggers.
 
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Bar the Bull said:
This election is very exciting on a micro level, but remarkably dull on a macro level. Kenny will be Taoiseach.
Click to expand...

Exactly, as for your point on bookmakers colluding, it's embarrassing. No one can be bothered to do a bit research and price things themselves. I thought the 4/6 for James Riley to be next Minister For Health is a bit of given.


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I had the very same conversation with my old man. I made the same point as you did.

My old man reckons that given that Noonan, Rabbitte, Quinn and Burton (and Bruton) are all gunning for finance and Gilmore is likely to get foreign affairs, it mean that there will be a lot of heavy hitters and very few glamour posts to go around.

So Reilly could be out on his ear. Or to Energy.
 
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Noonan was very popular at EVS and Rabbitte was laid at big prices. Finance is a big gig this time around as you can't do a worse job than your predecessor. Health on the other hand is a no win situation. James Riley has been high profile for the last couple of years he can hardly take any other job. I think the 4/6 is a lazy compilers price. I would be N/O.


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I can't bloody find the market now. I got it sent via Twitter this morning. I'll keep looking.
 
General thoughts - Sinn Fein and Labour will not do quite as well as people are predicting, Fine Gael will do as well or a little better than currently predicted and FF will make marginal improvements on their current polling. The will be no Greens (which I think is a bit of a shame but their leader has been a disaster for them) and too many useless independents.
 
pppolitics Paddy Power
Paddy Power: Next Minister for Health: 4/6 James Reilly, 9/4 Jan O'Sullivan, 5/1 Joan Burton, 13/2 Leo Varadkar #ge11
 
I reckon the bookies might be commissioning their own opinion polls. Perhaps they're sharing the cost, hence the collusion.
 
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