Irish Flat Season 2013

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SlimChance

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We finally get underway on Sunday. Soft ground fit horses will be the order of the day. The opening maiden has a lot of fast ground horses entered that have no chance of running, there could be as few as 5 runners.


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Leopardstown Sunday:

Heritage Stakes - Declaration Of War, Windsor Palace, Bold Thady Quill, Paene Magnus, Elusive Ridge and Sweet Lightning.

Ballysax Stakes Declarations - Battle Of Marengo, Alpinist, Beyond Thankful, Foundry, Imperial Concorde & Sugar Boy.

1000 Guineas Trial - 9 declarations including What Style, Snow Queen, Hint Of A Tint and Bunairgead.

2000 Guineas Trial - 9 declarations including The United States, Move To Strike, Fort Knox, Dibayani and Ballyorban.
 
Good card today. I've had a small double on the United States and What Style and Betfair SP as the former seems quite big. Lots of talk of the cheekpieces but I can't see the problem.
 
This thread died a death mainly due to lazy cunts like OnTheBridle concentrating on work and not punting.

The 6.15 today in the Leopardstown is the race of the day. You can make a case for 4 horses going off favourite and 5 can win. I really like Intensified. The 6th in the maiden he has 2nd to War Command was backed from 6/1 into 11/10 yesterday finishing 4th. Everyone loves the formlines. I think he ran into a tool last tome when beaten at odds of 1/5. He'll improve again. I fully expect this to go off around 9/4 and win. Does anyone have a different view on the race?
 
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Looks like the bookies just prefer Mansion House however the booking of a 7lb claimer puts me off.

The best form is Intensified and despite three 2nds he's sure to go very close again.

The main danger could come from Exogenesis who has already showed he's going the right way when winning his maiden after finishing 7/7 on his first outing.

Very difficult to be confident but I would just give the nod to Ger Lyons horse because he's the most likely to improve again
 
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SlimChance said:
This thread died a death mainly due to lazy cunts like OnTheBridle concentrating on work and not punting.

The 6.15 today in the Leopardstown is the race of the day. You can make a case for 4 horses going off favourite and 5 can win. I really like Intensified. The 6th in the maiden he has 2nd to War Command was backed from 6/1 into 11/10 yesterday finishing 4th. Everyone loves the formlines. I think he ran into a tool last tome when beaten at odds of 1/5. He'll improve again. I fully expect this to go off around 9/4 and win. Does anyone have a different view on the race?
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Sort of. Two points on Intensified anyway:

1. He very much had the run of the race in Leopardstown the second day, dictating a steady gallop and getting first run on War Command. The Wachman colt was caught far too far back and ran a fair bit better than his finishing position suggested (incidentally I thought he didn't get the run of the race again last night). In short, I would be treating that collateral formline with caution.

2. He may well have run into a good horse the last day in the Curragh, but he was also just over a length better than a seemingly unfancied Joanna Morgan newcomer. We're talking about a horse who almost certainly (in my opinion, at least) hasn't progressed from his first run and was last seen turned over at 5's on. Has a whiff of Glor Na Mara/Wexford Opera etc. about him for me.

I would be against him at 9/4, but at 4's he's a watching brief (as is everything else in the race); you'd have to seriously doubt whether there are any superstars in the race.

It's a dreadful punting card really.
 
I take your points but you can't overlook that there was bombs for Intensfied off the show after War Command was smashed up in the morning. He's no Glor Na More for me, this thing has loads of ability. 4/1 is a bet.
 
Fair enough. You know more about the ways of the market, but I just questioned whether that money was because they fancied him to win that night, rather than him being a superstar. Interesting betting heat as well.

One later on the card that slightly catches my eye out of left field is Gumption in the 12f handicap; his Roscommon fourth in a decent handicap entitles him to be shorter than 33's tonight. Hoping 12f brings about a little more improvement as well.
 
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trackside528 said:
Fair enough. You know more about the ways of the market, but I just questioned whether that money was because they fancied him to win that night, rather than him being a superstar. Interesting betting heat as well.
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When War Command was smashed up in the morning (for the right reasons) it was any price that Bolgers would go off favourite. Maybe it was a Betfair move but it was highly significant.
 
Anyone watch the 9.00 this eve? Good for the distance punters..... The winner had been nibbled at 3 figure prices through the day too.
 
Steve T said:
Anyone watch the 9.00 this eve? Good for the distance punters..... The winner had been nibbled at 3 figure prices through the day too.
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I couldn't find a horse to back in the race because it suited several not to win with Galway in mind. It was a scandalous race and all jockeys bar the winner have been given a four day suspension, the very least they deserved. I know the rules don't provide for it, but it would also have been appropriate to ban the horses concerned from running in any race at Galway.
 
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Grey said:
I couldn't find a horse to back in the race because it suited several not to win with Galway in mind. It was a scandalous race and all jockeys bar the winner have been given a four day suspension, the very least they deserved. I know the rules don't provide for it, but it would also have been appropriate to ban the horses concerned from running in any race at Galway.
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All aboard...GPT here we come!
 
Racing at the Curragh on Thursday.

Silver flash stakes, Group 3 (always a good race) value to the winner 39k
Challenge stakes, listed value to the winner 26K
A Handicap, value to the winner 60k
 
That is part of "The Irish Stallion farms EBF challenge series"
12 handicaps will have 50k plus graranteed with a points system for leading trainer of the series giving them money redeemable at the yearling sales this autumn.
Races are named honouring famous Irish stallions Ragusa,Habitat etc
Thursdays race at Leopardstown remembers Nasrullah, the horse the McGraths sold to America in a swap for Hill Gail,the Kentucky Derby winner. Not their brightest move !
 
The gap seems to be growing, 26k for a listed winner and 60 for a handicapper.
The top two rated horses entered in the handicap could conceivably win the listed race .

money redeemable at the yearling sales
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Does that mean they have credit at the Sales ?
 
Their approach to premier handicaps is ridiculous. The number of extra horses that show up for a €40k handicap compared to €80k is negligible. That extra cash could be spread across other handicaps.
 
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