Irish Grand National

Irish Stamp said:
To be fair it'd cost £2,000ish to run at Compiegne, the fences aren't that big and there's plenty of 50k+ races.

UK trainers would much rather run their horses for 5k or for 30k in Graded races, doubt half of them even look at the likes of Dieppe which is literally a ferry ride and a horse box trip of about 2 kilometres away.

Martin
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British trainers would not know where Dieppe is much less look at the program book
 
It's quite rational for owners in England and Ireland, whatever about trainers, not to send horses to the likes of Compiegne and Dieppe, fine places though they are.

People buy horses for various reasons, but profit is not usually one of them and most owners like to share the occasions when their horses win with friends and others. There's not much point walking around on air after your horse has won if no one else even knows it was running. And you can't have a decent bet on it either because the PMU monopoly means that outside the biggest meetings you would in effect be betting against yourself.
 
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If they're bothered about people knowing it's running and are effectively on a massive ego trip then they should go to the French provincial courses, can guarantee there'd be more folk watching a 15k 5yo+ chase won by something rated the equivalent of about 105 than is at Ludlow or Fairyhouse on a Wednesday.

Martin
 
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Looks like Kemboy will be declared for this

10.3 is a lovely weight, but the distance is a complete unknown and he obv needs to brush up his jumping. Would love a big run run, but wonder if he's just a mullins dart at the trainers title....
 
Outlander top weight of 11-10. Gordon has 12 others.

Willie runs Bellshill, Pairofbrowneyes, Isleofhopendreams and Kemboy (10-6).:cool:

Westerner Point 9-12.
 
Is the general class of this race on the rise?

I'm pretty sure I can remember horses in the low 120s getting in.
 
FFS...... No.31 I'm sick. I suppose it is 1st reserve. Scanning frantically here for one that potentially won't run. No. 29 is Paul Nolan's 'Fine Theatre' who only ran yesterday at Clonmel. Praying he comes out [emoji120]
 
I've been looking at the irish national prev winner profiles vs my ratings. A potential negative for bellshill is that it's only been out once in the last 365 days. Where as prev winners had been out at least 3x but the Bellshill run was a win in just the last couple of months.
I had Outlander as a decent ew shot but I think it's probably carrying too much weight with 161 lbs i.e. the weight range of winners 2000-2017 has been 131 lbs to 158 lbs. Plus the higher weight winners have only been running on good to yielding, where as it's currently likely to be softer than that.

Hhmm thoughts?
 
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Double Handful said:
FFS...... No.31 I'm sick. I suppose it is 1st reserve. Scanning frantically here for one that potentially won't run. No. 29 is Paul Nolan's 'Fine Theatre' who only ran yesterday at Clonmel. Praying he comes out [emoji120]
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Don't panic. If it is meant to be JP will take care of it for you.
 
pawras said:
I've been looking at the irish national prev winner profiles vs my ratings. A potential negative for bellshill is that it's only been out once in the last 365 days. Where as prev winners had been out at least 3x but the Bellshill run was a win in just the last couple of months.
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I like my National winners of all varieties to have had at least 3 runs that season.
 
From 2001-2017 :-
All previous winners have contested a class 2 or better race.
All previous winners have won a class 3 or better race.
 
pawras said:
I've been looking at the irish national prev winner profiles vs my ratings. A potential negative for bellshill is that it's only been out once in the last 365 days. Where as prev winners had been out at least 3x but the Bellshill run was a win in just the last couple of months.
I had Outlander as a decent ew shot but I think it's probably carrying too much weight with 161 lbs i.e. the weight range of winners 2000-2017 has been 131 lbs to 158 lbs. Plus the higher weight winners have only been running on good to yielding, where as it's currently likely to be softer than that.

Hhmm thoughts?
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Bellshill at Cheltenham and Leopardstown:2030F3.
Bellshill everywhere else:12111121111.
 
an capall said:
Don't panic. If it is meant to be JP will take care of it for you.
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Yeah I was thinking that myself. If it's meant to be etc. Took 60/1 NRMB Boosted price each way 4 places with Ladbrokes in case Scoir Mear does get in. If he does run he goes off 20/1 or shorter I think. There are a couple in the race that hold other entries, Including 2 of the JP horses and historically there's usually at least 1 non runner anyway.

Does anyone know the cut off time for a Reserve to be able to get in, in place of a non runner in Irish racing?
 
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