Irish Grand National

I can't ever remember ever being this intrigued, excited and confused at the same time by an Irish Grand National.

Dounikos has been a horse I've been backing all year with a view that he is always a bigger price than he should be (and therefore Value), however after being comprehensively outclassed in the RSA I wouldn't have necessarily fancied him for this - but now Davey Russel rides.... Why did he not ride the more fancied Mal Dini? Did he have a choice?

Further Jockey bookings that perplex me - Why are both Barry Geraghty and Mark Walsh NOT riding either of the 2 JP horses?
Is it all a ruse and Lord Scoundrel will be a non runner and Barry will really ride Scoir Mear....? :ninja:
 
archie said:
Davy can't do the weight for Mall Dini. Likewise Walsh and Geraghty for the JP horses.
Click to expand...

Fair play archie. That was quite obvious on reflection!!! You really have been the go to Man on this thread. All of your replies have been greatly appreciated. Cheers.

I take it you've had a few bob on Kemboy yourselves. Is Willie upbeat about his chances?
 
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Double Handful said:
I take it you've had a few bob on Kemboy yourselves. Is Willie upbeat about his chances?
Click to expand...
I never back my own horses, DH. I get enough of a kick from seeing them run so I'm more than happy with any prize-money.

As Perpetual said earlier, stamina is the great unknown and it's only his fourth chase but he has a fair mark and should act on the going. Willie presumably thinks he has a chance of prize-money and I'll be happy to see him home safe and sound.
 
This is how my figures for tomorrow shape up, with my current musings underneath:

5.00 boYLESPORTS IRISH GRAND NATIONAL CHASE (EXTENDED HANDICAP CHASE) (GRADE A) (5yo+) Winner €270,000 30 runners 3m5f Soft To Heavy RTE2
[TABLE="width: 675"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.[/TD]
[TD]Form[/TD]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Stats[/TD]
[TD]Wt[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[TD]Jockey[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON
(179)[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10 [/TD]
[TD]5-5452 [/TD]
[TD] Mall Dini [/TD]
[TD]tb bf [/TD]
[TD]10-4 [/TD]
[TD]Patrick G Kelly [/TD]
[TD]Mark Walsh[/TD]
[TD]143 [/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]177 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15 [/TD]
[TD]/U1P5- [/TD]
[TD] The Paparrazi Kid [/TD]
[TD]t 1 [/TD]
[TD]10-1 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Brian Hayes[/TD]
[TD]140 [/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]144 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16 [/TD]
[TD]-P84PF [/TD]
[TD] Thunder And Roses [/TD]
[TD]tv CD [/TD]
[TD]10-1 [/TD]
[TD]M F Morris [/TD]
[TD]Ms L O'Neill[/TD]
[TD]140 [/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD](182)[/TD]
[TD]168 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19 [/TD]
[TD]12F407 [/TD]
[TD] Arkwrisht [/TD]
[TD]t [/TD]
[TD]9-12 [/TD]
[TD]Joseph Patrick O'Brien [/TD]
[TD]Rachael Blackmore[/TD]
[TD]137 [/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]172 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 23 [/TD]
[TD]5029F4 [/TD]
[TD] Kilcarry Bridge [/TD]
[TD]t [/TD]
[TD]9-11 [/TD]
[TD]John Patrick Ryan [/TD]
[TD]Dylan Robinson 5[/TD]
[TD]136 [/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]172 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 26 [/TD]
[TD]-1P7UP [/TD]
[TD] Champagne Harmony [/TD]
[TD]b 1 [/TD]
[TD]9-10 [/TD]
[TD]S J Mahon [/TD]
[TD]Chris Meehan 5[/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]167 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 30 [/TD]
[TD]2-F2UP [/TD]
[TD] Forever Gold [/TD]
[TD]tp 1 CD [/TD]
[TD]9-10 [/TD]
[TD]Edward Cawley [/TD]
[TD]Adam Short 5[/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]181[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]172 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9 [/TD]
[TD]031513 [/TD]
[TD] Moulin A Vent [/TD]
[TD]C [/TD]
[TD]10-6 [/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade [/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Moore[/TD]
[TD]145 [/TD]
[TD]180[/TD]
[TD]??[/TD]
[TD]175 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 24 [/TD]
[TD]U-0102 [/TD]
[TD] Oscar Knight [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]9-11 [/TD]
[TD]Thomas Mullins [/TD]
[TD]L P Dempsey[/TD]
[TD]136 [/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD]p
179 Hd[/TD]
[TD]98 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 25 [/TD]
[TD]U-6303 [/TD]
[TD] Squouateur [/TD]
[TD]t C [/TD]
[TD]9-10 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Mark Enright[/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]173 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 28 [/TD]
[TD]12P5P5 [/TD]
[TD] Woods Well [/TD]
[TD]C [/TD]
[TD]9-10 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Andrew Ring 3[/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]168 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5 [/TD]
[TD]0-8PPU [/TD]
[TD] Lord Scoundrel [/TD]
[TD]tb [/TD]
[TD]10-11 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Barry Geraghty[/TD]
[TD]150 [/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[TD]?
(187?)[/TD]
[TD]162 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14 [/TD]
[TD]F53F-0 [/TD]
[TD] Jetstream Jack [/TD]
[TD]tb 1 C [/TD]
[TD]10-1 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Denis O'Regan[/TD]
[TD]140 [/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]107 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 20 [/TD]
[TD]6-PP1F [/TD]
[TD] Bless The Wings [/TD]
[TD]p CD [/TD]
[TD]9-12 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Brian Hughes[/TD]
[TD]137 [/TD]
[TD]178[/TD]
[TD](182e)
184o xc[/TD]
[TD]182 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6 [/TD]
[TD]8-2315 [/TD]
[TD] Snow Falcon [/TD]
[TD]C [/TD]
[TD]10-10 [/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade [/TD]
[TD]Sean Flanagan[/TD]
[TD]149 [/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD]??
(177o Hd)[/TD]
[TD]174 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13 [/TD]
[TD]10-PP2 [/TD]
[TD] Isleofhopendreams [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]10-1 [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]Danny Mullins[/TD]
[TD]140 [/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]170 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17 [/TD]
[TD]-51143 [/TD]
[TD] Call It Magic [/TD]
[TD]b [/TD]
[TD]10-0 [/TD]
[TD]Ross O'Sullivan [/TD]
[TD]A E Lynch[/TD]
[TD]139 [/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]172 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18 [/TD]
[TD]-47046 [/TD]
[TD] General Principle [/TD]
[TD]t [/TD]
[TD]10-0 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]JJ Slevin[/TD]
[TD]139 [/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]168 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7 [/TD]
[TD]06-801 [/TD]
[TD] Pairofbrowneyes [/TD]
[TD]C [/TD]
[TD]10-7
9ex [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]Paul Townend[/TD]
[TD]146 [/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]+p t?[/TD]
[TD]169 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8 [/TD]
[TD]57-214 [/TD]
[TD] Kemboy [/TD]
[TD]C [/TD]
[TD]10-6 [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]BJ Cooper[/TD]
[TD]145 [/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]p t[/TD]
[TD]173 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12 [/TD]
[TD]-95045 [/TD]
[TD] Tell Us More [/TD]
[TD]b [/TD]
[TD]10-3 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Jody McGarvey[/TD]
[TD]142 [/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]160 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 27 [/TD]
[TD]511-94 [/TD]
[TD] Killaro Boy [/TD]
[TD]h C [/TD]
[TD]9-10 [/TD]
[TD]Adrian Murray [/TD]
[TD]Robbie Colgan[/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]+?[/TD]
[TD]167 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 29 [/TD]
[TD]347U42 [/TD]
[TD] Fine Theatre [/TD]
[TD]tb C [/TD]
[TD]9-10 [/TD]
[TD]Paul Nolan [/TD]
[TD]Cathal Landers 7[/TD]
[TD]135 [/TD]
[TD]176[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[TD]166 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1 [/TD]
[TD]61332P [/TD]
[TD] Outlander [/TD]
[TD]b 1 C [/TD]
[TD]11-10 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Mr R James 7[/TD]
[TD]163 [/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]172 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3 [/TD]
[TD]-22111 [/TD]
[TD] Monbeg Notorious [/TD]
[TD]v [/TD]
[TD]10-13 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Jack Kennedy[/TD]
[TD]152 [/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]168 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11 [/TD]
[TD]8-1441 [/TD]
[TD] Folsom Blue [/TD]
[TD]tp D [/TD]
[TD]10-3 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Robbie Power[/TD]
[TD]142 [/TD]
[TD]174[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]169 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4 [/TD]
[TD]9-114P [/TD]
[TD] Dounikos [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]10-12 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Davy Russell[/TD]
[TD]151 [/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]169 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 21 [/TD]
[TD]32106F [/TD]
[TD] Sutton Manor [/TD]
[TD]p [/TD]
[TD]9-12 [/TD]
[TD]Gordon Elliott [/TD]
[TD]Donagh Meyler[/TD]
[TD]137 [/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD](180 Hd)[/TD]
[TD]168 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2 [/TD]
[TD]11F3-1 [/TD]
[TD] Bellshill [/TD]
[TD]C [/TD]
[TD]11-5
8ex [/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins [/TD]
[TD]David Mullins[/TD]
[TD]158 [/TD]
[TD]172[/TD]
[TD]p (172++)[/TD]
[TD]166 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 22 [/TD]
[TD]828713 [/TD]
[TD] Westerner Point [/TD]
[TD]C [/TD]
[TD]9-12 [/TD]
[TD]Eoghan O'Grady [/TD]
[TD]Phillip Enright[/TD]
[TD]137 [/TD]
[TD]170[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]166 [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I’m indebted to Archie for resolving an issue I had with this race. It turns out Davy Russell can’t do the weight for Mall Dini and neither Geraghty nor Mark Walsh can do the weight for any of JP McManus’s runners. You have to admire the latter’s trainers for getting their horses into the race off such low marks. JP also owned two of the three reserves and didn’t make way for either of them so I have to presume he feels the ones who run have better chances.

There are a couple of must-bets in the race. Mall Dini has to be a bet because he’s top rated and should/could have won at Cheltenham. He’d be rated a pound or two higher, maybe, if he had won and he’s clearly still on a curve. But he could also run 5lbs better than I have him and still not win, so many in number are likely other steep-curve improvers. The other must is Squouateur who got an even less effective ride in Mall Dini’s race. He also made a few jumping errors so might well do so again. That’s the gamble I’m taking with him but he remains potentially very well treated on his best hurdling form, working on the assumption that it’s quite normal for them to improve 10lbs and more when they graduate to fences.

This same phenomenon makes Oscar Knight, Snow Falcon and Sutton manor interesting contenders.

I actually think Bellshill could run very well given how the form of the RSA has worked out this season. I remain firmly of the opinion that this season’s Ladbrokes (Hennessy) race is extraordinary, yet I’m not convinced Total Recall would have been involved in the finish of the Gold Cup since he wasn’t getting the kind of ride that would have optimised his chances. I also remain firmly of the belief that Might Bite will run all over Native River on better ground and that, like Altior, he probably has a performance approaching 190 in his locker. I had a very big time rating for the RSA last year but scaled it back, concluding that “if it seems too good to be true it probably is”. I found myself in the same situation with the Ladbrokes race but that one really was over the top to start with. Even scaling it back 11lbs leaves Whisper on a rating higher than Native River’s Gold Cup so the RSA must have been as brilliant as it looked at the time. And Hendo has stated, “We know Might Bite is yards better than Whisper.” That scaled-back rating also left Total Recall in the mid-150s so if he was about to run to 160+ in the Gold Cup you’d have to wonder again about the extent to which the Ladbrokes needs adjusting.

The other +p contenders pretty much make their own cases based on their respective curves and a win for any of them would not surprise me. It’s a fascinating race all in all and the great pity is that heavy ground will maybe throw up an unsatisfactory race.

I’m happy to take Mall Dini, Squouateur, Oscar Knight, Snow Falcon, Sutton Manor and Bellshill to varying win stakes against the field but wouldn’t necessarily expect to get a return!
 
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Current conditions are soft to heavy but overnight rain will probably turn the ground back to full-on heavy.

In those circumstances I suspect a gnarled older horse, suited by conditions but with not too much weight to carry, might prevail over the younger, upward curve brigade. In a normal year Oscar Knight would be the right sort of horse but I think Folsom Blue could be the one for tomorrow.
 
Just seeing that all 3 reserves were officially declared non runners at 13:30 today. I thought in Ireland reserves could still get in on the day of the race.... Is this not usually the case?
 
I'm not sure what price it was earlier but B365 have cut Bellshill to 5/1 (according to oddschecker). Considering it's 10/1 in a few places that's quite a difference.
 
I see Mall Dini is now 2nd fav, however it's never won a chase race, where as all winners 2001 to 2017 had all won at least one.
 
Elsewhere on the card, Rogue Angel looks excellently well handicapped in the 5:45 and I reckon he will go close to winning.
 
Moulin A Vent would have to be my 50p ew bet here.
Very good luck chaps. I think it’s rain rain all day.
 
The going is heavy and the only 2 times since 2000 a runner carrying more than 150lb has won the going has been no worse than good to yielding.
But then the fav has only won twice in that time as well, so we'll see.
 
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Well the Irish handicapper will be a hard man to please if that race doesn't give him a lot of satisfaction.

I at least got a wonderful run for my money from Bellshill.
 
No doubt in my mind Folsom Blue would have won that if Bellshill had kept straighter. Only had a token bet on him as I couldn’t really see him winning off 142 but Elliott has clearly worked some kind of magic with this horse


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Pity about Pairofbrowneyes being an early faller but I'm happy to take the win with General Principle, 20/1 SP is tidy enough but it was nearly 40/1 early on.
 
Chris Cook

[FONT=&quot]A rueful Willie Mullins is working on a theory Bellshill was distracted by something bright in his line of vision when he made his mad leftwards plunge that threw the finish of Monday’s Irish Grand National into disarray.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The consensus in the immediate aftermath was the horse’s wayward path was the result of fatigue but Mullins does not accept that explanation, having talked it over with Bellshill’s jockey, David Mullins.[/FONT]
<aside class="element element-rich-link element--thumbnail element-rich-link--upgraded" data-component="rich-link" data-link-name="rich-link-1 | 1" style="float: left; margin: 0.3125rem 1.25rem 0.75rem -15rem; clear: both; width: 13.75rem; color: rgb(18, 18, 18); font-family: "Guardian Text Egyptian Web", Georgia, serif; font-size: medium; font-variant-ligatures: common-ligatures;">
3500.jpg

[FONT=&quot][h=1]General Principle gives Gordon Elliott his first Irish Grand National victory[/h][/FONT]
<svg width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" class="inline-arrow-in-circle__svg inline-icon__svg">
</path></svg>
[FONT=&quot]Read more[/FONT]



</aside>[FONT=&quot]“No, he wasn’t emptying at all,” the trainer said. “David said he had plenty of running left in him. Whether something caught his eye or what, I don’t know.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]“I’ve got to have a look at the tapes but someone said there might have been a photographer’s coat or a hi-vis jacket might have taken his eye off the fence. David said there was plenty in the horse because he was brought to a standstill and then ran on again.”[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Bellshill moved like the best horse for most of the race and was trading online at odds of about 1-3 as he approached the final fence. However, instead of producing the straightforward leap that would have all but ensured victory, he slowed and hung to his left before clambering over, losing ground and momentum. He was beaten by only one length.[/FONT]
 
Could Mullins be merely trying to cover up for panicking the horse on the run to the last?

He went from seemingly cantering to hard riding in two strides. I wonder if he felt he needed to take a couple of lengths out of the field at a tactically important point in the light of the relatively short run-in but only succeeded in unbalancing the horse.

My immediate recollection of the finish was that he had weakened completely out of the money, probably because I was trying to figure out the identity of everything else involved in that stirring finish but Bellshill had immediately gone out of my mind. I was surprised he'd been fourth past the post as he obviously couldn't have been beaten far so maybe wasn't as tired as it had looked at the last.
 
Not sure if you realise Bellshill was relegated to fifth in the subsequent stewards enquiry ?

[FONT=&quot]063F BoyleSports Irish Grand National S'chase[/FONT][FONT=&quot]The Stewards enquired into possible interference at the final fence involving Bellshill, ridden by D.J. Mullins, placed fourth, Folsom Blue, ridden by R.M. Power, placed fifth and Arkwrisht (FR), ridden by Rachael Blackmore, placed sixth, where it appeared that Bellshill hung to the left causing Arkwrisht and Folsom Blue to check. Evidence was heard from the riders concerned. Having viewed the recording of the race and considered the evidence, the Stewards were of the opinion that the interference was accidental in nature however was significant enough to improve Bellshill's finishing place in relation to Folsom Blue, and they therefore reversed the fourth and fifth placings.

The result now reads:
First: General Principal,
Second: Isleofhopendreams,
Third: Forever Gold,
Fourth: Folsom Blue,
Fifth: Bellshill,
Sixth: Arkwrisht.

Mr. R. Dore, Chairman, absented himself from this enquiry which was chaired by Mr. P.N. Reynolds.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Stewards interviewed J.J. Slevin, rider of General Principle, concerning his use of the whip in the closing stages of this race. Evidence was heard from the rider concerned. Having viewed a recording of the race and considered the evidence, including veterinary evidence from the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board Veterinary Officer, the Stewards were of the opinion that J.J. Slevin was in breach of Regulation 10.3 (f) in that he used his whip with excessive force, and having considered his record in this regard suspended him for 7 racedays.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Stewards interviewed D.E. Mullins, rider of Isleofhopendreams (GB), concerning his use of the whip in the closing stages of this race. Evidence was heard from the rider concerned. Having viewed a recording of the race and considered the evidence the Stewards were of the opinion that D.E. Mullins was in breach of Regulation 10.3 (f) in that he used his whip with excessive frequency, and Regulation 10.4 in that he used his whip without giving his mount time to respond. Having considered his previous record in this regard, the Stewards suspended D.E. Mullins for 3 racedays.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]D.N. Russell, rider of Dounikos (FR) trained by Gordon Elliott, reported to the Clerk of Scales that his mount stopped quickly and pulled up.[/FONT]
 
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