ISIS...Islamic State Victims

And the harbouring of grievances and wallowing in victim hood as well as drooling over conspiracy theories is most definitely a cancer in the Arab world

Two big uprisings in recent times. Eastern Europe. A few blips but generally speaking ...sorted

Arab world? Bar Tunisia perhaps, riddled with hate and in fighting

Of course not identical situations but the Eastern European states had their difficult borders and ethnic minorities too. One state split without one drop of blood spilled

The obvious exception was Yugoslavia of course

They key to success is always to get a proper democratic structure in place with safeguards for minorities and a thoughtful constitution. From that you will have an inclusive rather than extractive state and prosperity follows
 
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The problem with the 'moderate' Muslim constituency in the UK, is that whilst they will state that the actions of ISIS/Al Queda/take-your-pick are abhorrent, it is almost always qualified with a "but if the West didn't have X/Y/Z policy.....".

This is their ultimate failing, and the reason why domestic tensions between non-Muslims and Muslims are heading towards breaking-point in the UK.

In my view, the 'Islamic world' has utterly-failed to confront the problem of Sunni militantism. There doesn't even seem to be a desire to do so. And in the absence of any visible or tangible attempt at "house-keeping" by Islamic States, the West has very little option but to attempt to address it itself. The world is now too connected for a 'Do Nothing' option to ever be viable. Yet, when the West make attempts at addressing the situation, the Islamic World defaults to it's now established pattern of "Yes, but....."......which is nothing more than a smokescreen to hide their own apparent disinterest in being part of the solution - let alone leading on it, as they should be doing.

It's time that Islamic States stood-up to be counted. They can't have it both ways. If they refuse to accept terrorism for what it is, and continue to hide behind the notion that Western policy is to blame, it won't be long before there is an almighty religious war between Islamic/non- islamic countries. I give it a couple more major atrocities, before it all kicks-off for real.

Great post
 
There in a sentence is what I listened to growing up.

Vastly underrated post.

Any sentence that begins with "The problem with the <insert wide demographic>" will usually end with an unfair and inaccurate sweeping assertion.

Do white people have their own "constituency" which is fundamentally representative of all its "constituents"?
Do Scottish people have their own "constituency" which is fundamentally representative of all its "constituents"?
Do the Jews have their own "constituency" which is fundamentally representative of all its "constituents"?
Do people who drink alcohol have their own "constituency" which is fundamentally representative of all its "constituents"?
Do horse racing fans have their own "constituency" which is fundamentally representative of all its "constituents"?

With the exception of cults, it's an almost universal truth that "Community Leaders" are self appointed and bare little reflection on the precise opinions and viewpoints of the mean average Joe.
 
There in a sentence is what I listened to growing up.


20 years ago this week the Sunday newspapers would have been full of articles against any sort of agreement which involved Republicans in Nothern Ireland.
The current situation isn't perfect but would any of us want things the way they were in early 1994.
 
Vastly underrated post.

Any sentence that begins with "The problem with the <insert wide demographic>" will usually end with an unfair and inaccurate sweeping assertion.

Do white people have their own "constituency" which is fundamentally representative of all its "constituents"?
Do Scottish people have their own "constituency" which is fundamentally representative of all its "constituents"?
Do the Jews have their own "constituency" which is fundamentally representative of all its "constituents"?
Do people who drink alcohol have their own "constituency" which is fundamentally representative of all its "constituents"?
Do horse racing fans have their own "constituency" which is fundamentally representative of all its "constituents"?

With the exception of cults, it's an almost universal truth that "Community Leaders" are self appointed and bare little reflection on the precise opinions and viewpoints of the mean average Joe.

My issue is with Islamic Governments, and the related theocratic elites, rather than with the leity, BH - I thought I'd made that perfectly clear in the original post. Their voices tend to be raised when it comes to Israel/Gaza (rightly so, imv), but the silence is generally deafening, when it comes to IS. Indeed, if the rumours are true, some of them may even be bank-rolling them.

Given the IS approach is self-evidently one that deploys a vindictive and perverse form of Islam, it surely behoves the relevant bodies (governmental and theocratic) across the Islamic world, to try and tackle this thing head-on. Where an all-encompasing Islamic Conference (with a remit to agree a united cross-Sunni/Shia approach to tackling the problem) should exist, there is instead a complete vacuum. There appears to be something verging on indifference on the matter, when an urgent and material response is required. Again, in the total absence of any response from those who matter, it falls to the West to intervene.......because someone absolutely has to.
 
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My comments pertained to this part of your post.

The problem with the 'moderate' Muslim constituency in the UK, is that whilst they will state that the actions of ISIS/Al Queda/take-your-pick are abhorrent, it is almost always qualified with a "but if the West didn't have X/Y/Z policy.....".

This is their ultimate failing, and the reason why domestic tensions between non-Muslims and Muslims are heading towards breaking-point in the UK.

The "Islamic community" is roughly as quiet as the "white community" with regards to both conflicts. What percentage of British Muslims were out on demonstrations? Probably less than the percentage of the "white community" who marched against the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Like the "white community", being comprised of human beings, the majority of British Muslims are pretty apathetic.

As for the differing responses towards the conflicts, the Israeli actions are openly endorsed the government who we fund with our taxes - who in turn - support UK built arms being sold to Israel. The reason why there isn't widespread condemnation from "moderate Muslims" regarding ISIS is apathy and a distinct lack of opposition to the strikes on IS. Indeed, leaders of the community have condemned by both Shia and Sunni community leaders.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28270296

It would be naive to think that there aren't some Muslims funding IS but is isn't the responsibility of average Mohammed the Muslim to shout him out. Likewise, many Jews and Jewish businesses fund Israel and many English people fund some very dubious charities without fully understanding what they entail. Is it the responsibility of horse racing fans to shout out opposition to Charles "the vile cnut" Wentworth or Prince Khalid Abdullah or other any despot that has free roam in our sport?

The notion that the Muslim silent majority has an obligation and responsibility to condemn the actions of IS completely absurd. Just as it's a hopeless wish to expect the Christians in this country to be marching en-masse against the goings on in the Central African Republic. Indeed, where were the Orthodox Christians during the Bosnian massacres? Or the Catholics demanding acknowledgement of their support for the Ustaše etc etc etc

I'm not challenging your comments on Islamic Governments, but then again, I wasn't talking about them.
 
Why are you so touchy? I have never used "the J word" in any derogatory context. I would invite you to go through all of my posts and highlight any hint of anti-semitism. Indeed, I think I'd be much more successful in finding Islamophobia in yours.

Besides, I thought you were already ignoring my posts.

For what it's worth, there's no point in you responding to them since I've already given up on you being able to discuss like an adult. Maybe we can discuss horse racing or what your favourite number is or something else at some point (not cricket though - I find the sport insufferably boring). But regarding political issues, you're simply a paranoid old kook.
 
My comments pertained to this part of your post.



The "Islamic community" is roughly as quiet as the "white community" with regards to both conflicts. What percentage of British Muslims were out on demonstrations? Probably less than the percentage of the "white community" who marched against the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Like the "white community", being comprised of human beings, the majority of British Muslims are pretty apathetic.

As for the differing responses towards the conflicts, the Israeli actions are openly endorsed the government who we fund with our taxes - who in turn - support UK built arms being sold to Israel. The reason why there isn't widespread condemnation from "moderate Muslims" regarding ISIS is apathy and a distinct lack of opposition to the strikes on IS. Indeed, leaders of the community have condemned by both Shia and Sunni community leaders.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28270296

It would be naive to think that there aren't some Muslims funding IS but is isn't the responsibility of average Mohammed the Muslim to shout him out. Likewise, many Jews and Jewish businesses fund Israel and many English people fund some very dubious charities without fully understanding what they entail. Is it the responsibility of horse racing fans to shout out opposition to Charles "the vile cnut" Wentworth or Prince Khalid Abdullah or other any despot that has free roam in our sport?

The notion that the Muslim silent majority has an obligation and responsibility to condemn the actions of IS completely absurd. Just as it's a hopeless wish to expect the Christians in this country to be marching en-masse against the goings on in the Central African Republic. Indeed, where were the Orthodox Christians during the Bosnian massacres? Or the Catholics demanding acknowledgement of their support for the Ustaše etc etc etc

I'm not challenging your comments on Islamic Governments, but then again, I wasn't talking about them.

A straightforward case of you interpreting the word "constituency" in a wider sense than was intended - I was referring to their community leaders. With hindsight, maybe I could have been clearer.

No harm done.
 
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If muslins refrain from condemning isis atrocities and 9/11, which wercarried out in their name abd clearly in their name then they willhave to live with peopledrawing thir own conclusions

that maybe unfair but that is life
 
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It's time that Islamic States stood-up to be counted. They can't have it both ways. If they refuse to accept terrorism for what it is, and continue to hide behind the notion that Western policy is to blame, it won't be long before there is an almighty religious war between Islamic/non- islamic countries. I give it a couple more major atrocities, before it all kicks-off for real.

It's a conclusion I'm coming to. There seems to be an inevitably of creep towards this armageddon scenario it's just that at the moment, such a genocidal conflict is winnable. It might not always be ... I'm sure there's shadowy right wing think tanks in Virginia working it out

I suspect we'll see a series of civil wars and regional conflicts first however as symptoms leading up to the final clash .... oh but wait .... haven't we.....

When I say civil wars I don't expect that these will necessarily be confined to places where we've intervened on spurious grounds either and stirred up more trouble (Libya). It could easily be in our own cities within 20 years or so. I'd expect France to be the western european country that comes under the most intense pressure first

I think also that there might be an element of the 'little old lady who swallowed a fly' at play here as we try to manage things through proxies, and ultimately fail as they go rogue. I'm still not completely clear myself just who ISIS are, and how they evolved in the way they did? If you run the diplomatic timeline alongside their evolution something correlates that looks mighty suspicious

The bottom line however is that

Saddam = No Isis
Gadaffi = No AQIM
Mubarak = No Mussy Brotherhood

It's incredible really. We invade countries and depose leaders who have absolutely no truct whatsoever with Islamic extremism, yet we sit back and do little about those where it grows. On top of that we extend most favoured nation status to those who fund it

There is another bonding here that cuts across tribal loyalties and that's the old fashioned class based one rooted in economic poverty. The poor and disposed of the urban areas of the arab world are more numerous and radical than the middle classes. It might be the borugeois intelligentsia who have the hailing frequencies to western politicians with their dissident think tanks and minor London universities, but ultimately if despotic leaders are overthrown it is the numerically larger group who are themselves products of a harder environment (better street fighters) who come to the fore every time. They did in Iran, Pakistan, Libya, Somalia, and Egypt (the same will happen in Afghanistan with 12 months of the US leaving)

You open up this vacuum and it will be the radicalised urban under class who will fill it, often reinforced by mobile jihadists who will travel across continents in pursuit of the next weak spot. It's why all this Cameron/ Hague talk of supporting moderate muslims is such folly. In the first case you can't identify them, and they have no history of successful urban warfare (they lose)
 
Not convinced by a lot of that warbler

Al queda appeared to have a lot of support Arab the Arab world post 9/11 but it soon drifted away. Sooner or later realty hits home instead of rhetoric.

Organisations such as isis will need a reasonable level of public support to survive. You can't run a state by armed gangs for ever. Or even that long.

Granted hamas have a grip and are understandably nt holding elections

Also the conservative elements in the Muslim world are generally rural (iran Egypt) or in the case or terrorism often actually middle class dreamers and western wannabes


I think grass is a bit wrong about the Arab states bleating about gaza. They don't. Egypt would like to see hamas smashed and Saudi Arabia was silent before being very even handed. Syria Libya and Iraq are a bit busy with other things and even iran seemed restrained. The usual Arab street protesting was either nt reported or just didnt really happen. Qatar seem to be their only backers. Seems as though much of the arab world saw it clearly for what it was and seemingly have no time at all for the moronic hamas.
 
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A straightforward case of you interpreting the word "constituency" in a wider sense than was intended - I was referring to their community leaders. With hindsight, maybe I could have been clearer.

No harm done.

As far as I can see, the majority of "community leaders" in the UK have condemned ISIS about as publicly as possible - as well as urging UK Muslims not to go to Iraq or Syria.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4145471.ece

Have I missed evidence to the contrary?
 
A straightforward case of you interpreting the word "constituency" in a wider sense than was intended - I was referring to their community leaders. With hindsight, maybe I could have been clearer.

No harm done.

I'm surprised you were able to make sense of my post. Not due to any deficiency on your part, rather the actual state of the structure. It seemed to make sense as it was coming out... I have spent all day translating, watching racing and getting overly excited about a German Cup acca so my head's been in many places.

But yeah, we cool.
 
I think also that there might be an element of the 'little old lady who swallowed a fly' at play here as we try to manage things through proxies, and ultimately fail as they go rogue. I'm still not completely clear myself just who ISIS are, and how they evolved in the way they did? If you run the diplomatic timeline alongside their evolution something correlates that looks mighty suspicious

The bottom line however is that

Saddam = No Isis
Gadaffi = No AQIM
Mubarak = No Mussy Brotherhood

It's incredible really. We invade countries and depose leaders who have absolutely no truct whatsoever with Islamic extremism, yet we sit back and do little about those where it grows. On top of that we extend most favoured nation status to those who fund it

It seems obvious to me that the common denominator is state "failure", be that either total failure (Syria) or a situation where a government has almost completely shut out one or more of the minority groups in its population (Iraq and Egypt).

ISIS surely would not have gained the momentum it has were it not for these vacuums in Syria and Iraq.

As for its support (a point you allude to, Clive), no group in the mould of ISIS could exist without the (mostly) tacit support from at least a segment of the population. But I think it is important to disentangle the source of that support from the group's ideology. A lot of Sunni Muslims seem to feel compelled to at least tolerate ISIS due to a lack of other options. In Iraq Maliki has done his best to shut Sunnis out of the decision-making process, and in Syria ISIS are ostensibly waging a war (and seem to be the group most likely to succeed) to topple a hated Shiite tyrant. What is really troubling is the complete failure of moderate Sunni elements to step forward and fill the void.
 
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Not convinced by a lot of that warbler

Al queda appeared to have a lot of support Arab the Arab world post 9/11 but it soon drifted away. Sooner or later realty hits home instead of rhetoric.

Organisations such as isis will need a reasonable level of public support to survive. You can't run a state by armed gangs for ever. Or even that long.

Granted hamas have a grip and are understandably nt holding elections

Also the conservative elements in the Muslim world are generally rural (iran Egypt) or in the case or terrorism often actually middle class dreamers and western wannabes

I don't think you understand the field mechanics of it Clive. AQ were a network of regional grievances. They were never designed as a centralised command and control global terror group. The whole idea was that you pursued your own goals under a radical interpretation and that's flared up since. They had no presence in Iraq or Libya, and little meaningful presence in wider Africa either. Similarly, Indonesia and Pakistan were relatively quiet

The conservative elements might be rural, but they're also passive as well as traditional. You don't need a particularly large army (or public support as you seem to think its called). What you need is about 10,000 well armed and well trained fanatics and you can easily over run a larger population if that population has no expertise or experience of organising and fighting.

History is full of such examples. The Spanish conquistadors are an obvious one. The Italians in the 1930's didn't support fascism but because the means to implement it (the police, the military, and finance of capital interests) were in a numerically small but influential group, they could implement it. Spain was just the same (and the Spanish republic was a democracy) not that voting is actually particularly useful when someone's shooting at you. The bottom line is that the hard line militants are just that - hard - they're better fighters than middle class academics and will win a scrap

ISIS lets not forget have routed an Iraqi army that had been built up, trained, and supplied for 10 years by the USA. ISIS were out numbered by the Iraqi defenders 10 to 1. Figure that out. Sure they've been funded by Qatar (so have FIFA) Qatar have had their ships stopped and found to be gun running from Libya. Qatar were the first Arab country to recognise the Libiyan Transitional Council (immediately after they were granted an agreement to sell Libiyan oil).

http://thinkafricapress.com/libya/what-qatar-doing

I expect we've given all those Gadaffi assests we froze to them now as well and are doing our bit to fund ISIS as well?

You can criticise selectively if you like Clive. But lets not forget that when the dust has settled you've been wrong time and time again as it transpires you've made poor strategic decisions. You need to break out of this blind adherance to following every country that America anoints. Many of them are plain evil and every bit as bad.

I actually think Grasshopper is right looking further down the road. This is heading towards a cataclismic global shoot out eventually, which means the temporarily forgotten places likes Pakistan become important again
 
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As far as I can see, the majority of "community leaders" in the UK have condemned ISIS about as publicly as possible - as well as urging UK Muslims not to go to Iraq or Syria.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/article4145471.ece

Have I missed evidence to the contrary?

They may urge UK Muslims not to go to Iraq or Syria, but what do they do to prevent radicalisation in the first place, tracks? Imam's in the UK have been liberal users of the "Yes, but...." approach over the years.
 
I don't think you understand the field mechanics of it Clive. AQ were a network of regional grievances. They were never designed as a centralised command and control global terror group. The whole idea was that you pursued your own goals under a radical interpretation and that's flared up since. They had no presence in Iraq or Libya, and little meaningful presence in wider Africa either. Similarly, Indonesia and Pakistan were relatively quiet

The conservative elements might be rural, but they're also passive as well as traditional. You don't need a particularly large army (or public support as you seem to think its called). What you need is about 10,000 well armed and well trained fanatics and you can easily over run a larger population if that population has no expertise or experience of organising and fighting.

History is full of such examples. The Spanish conquistadors are an obvious one. The Italians in the 1930's didn't support fascism but because the means to implement it (the police, the military, and finance of capital interests) were in a numerically small but influential group, they could implement it. Spain was just the same (and the Spanish republic was a democracy) not that voting is actually particularly useful when someone's shooting at you. The bottom line is that the hard line militants are just that - hard - they're better fighters than middle class academics and will win a scrap

ISIS lets not forget have routed an Iraqi army that had been built up, trained, and supplied for 10 years by the USA. ISIS were out numbered by the Iraqi defenders 10 to 1. Figure that out. Sure they've been funded by Qatar (so have FIFA) Qatar have had their ships stopped and found to be gun running from Libya. Qatar were the first Arab country to recognise the Libiyan Transitional Council (immediately after they were granted an agreement to sell Libiyan oil).

http://thinkafricapress.com/libya/what-qatar-doing

I expect we've given all those Gadaffi assests we froze to them now as well and are doing our bit to fund ISIS as well?

You can criticise selectively if you like Clive. But lets not forget that when the dust has settled you've been wrong time and time again as it transpires you've made poor strategic decisions. You need to break out of this blind adherance to following every country that America anoints. Many of them are plain evil and every bit as bad.

I actually think Grasshopper is right looking further down the road. This is heading towards a cataclismic global shoot out eventually, which means the temporarily forgotten places likes Pakistan become important again

Good post!

ISIS is the first of its kind to try and set up its own country in my living memory. It's picked the low hanging fruit of the vacuum in Syria and Iraq. The Iraqi army even though "trained" by the USA would always fold and run away just like the Afghan "army" will.

A very small group of fanatics can run riot through a huge group of moderates as proved through history.

The telling time will be when/if ISIS try their luck against an Iran, Saudi etc.

They will never train an army from the people they terrorise, and they will spread themselves too thin.

As repulsive as they are, in the long term ISIS may be the start of the end of Muslim Extremism on a global scale as we know it.......they are going for the jackpot and they will end up with nothing except revulsion.

"IF" it deteriorates, then action would be needed.

USA and probably Iran etc know this??

For all the Iran, Saudi, Syria etc history, they actually now look half decent?
 
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I don't think you understand the field mechanics of it Clive. AQ were a network of regional grievances. They were never designed as a centralised command and control global terror group. The whole idea was that you pursued your own goals under a radical interpretation and that's flared up since. They had no presence in Iraq or Libya, and little meaningful presence in wider Africa either. Similarly, Indonesia and Pakistan were relatively quiet

The conservative elements might be rural, but they're also passive as well as traditional. You don't need a particularly large army (or public support as you seem to think its called). What you need is about 10,000 well armed and well trained fanatics and you can easily over run a larger population if that population has no expertise or experience of organising and fighting.

History is full of such examples. The Spanish conquistadors are an obvious one. The Italians in the 1930's didn't support fascism but because the means to implement it (the police, the military, and finance of capital interests) were in a numerically small but influential group, they could implement it. Spain was just the same (and the Spanish republic was a democracy) not that voting is actually particularly useful when someone's shooting at you. The bottom line is that the hard line militants are just that - hard - they're better fighters than middle class academics and will win a scrap

ISIS lets not forget have routed an Iraqi army that had been built up, trained, and supplied for 10 years by the USA. ISIS were out numbered by the Iraqi defenders 10 to 1. Figure that out. Sure they've been funded by Qatar (so have FIFA) Qatar have had their ships stopped and found to be gun running from Libya. Qatar were the first Arab country to recognise the Libiyan Transitional Council (immediately after they were granted an agreement to sell Libiyan oil).

http://thinkafricapress.com/libya/what-qatar-doing

I expect we've given all those Gadaffi assests we froze to them now as well and are doing our bit to fund ISIS as well?

You can criticise selectively if you like Clive. But lets not forget that when the dust has settled you've been wrong time and time again as it transpires you've made poor strategic decisions. You need to break out of this blind adherance to following every country that America anoints. Many of them are plain evil and every bit as bad.

I actually think Grasshopper is right looking further down the road. This is heading towards a cataclismic global shoot out eventually, which means the temporarily forgotten places likes Pakistan become important again

Wrong on too many accounts

Aq not about "grievances". That's close to justifying their actions. It is an evil ideology who's only grievance wa the actual existence of non believers. Isis is the same. Also they did to all intents and purposes control a country. Afghanistan

Italy is no comparison at all. Mussolini did not exactly bring about the extrme social repression that will come with isis.

Of course I support Americas view. I believe in the success of liberal democratic states. Well I don't have to believe in it, it's there. Blindingly obvious. Eventually we might see such states in the Arab world once they through off the shackles of religous domination and tolerance of dictatorships.

I wonder if many do actually look to the economic success of Israel and wonder? Or maybe Tunisia will lead the way? I once read that there the number of patents (always the best indicator of an developing economy) in the Arab world was a tiny fraction of South Koreas

Americas allies are just as evil as isis? I don't think so.

Also I find your opinions of Arab dictators pretty troubling . Is it really forgotten now what saddam was about? The suggestion too that he had no alternative than to murdr the marsh Arabs because they could have overthrown him is ludicrous. The marsh Arabs????????
.
The idea that there is no alternative is rubbish

They said that about South Africa didnt they? Also about the eastern bloc? Every dictatorship going would have an apologist saying that is the "best for them". Depressing opinion and frankly not justified by even the hard lefts soft spot for "strong men"
 
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They may urge UK Muslims not to go to Iraq or Syria, but what do they do to prevent radicalisation in the first place, tracks? Imam's in the UK have been liberal users of the "Yes, but...." approach over the years.

As has much of the left

Endorsing the murder of a novelist FFs
 
Good post!

ISIS is the first of its kind to try and set up its own country in my living memory. It's picked the low hanging fruit of the vacuum in Syria and Iraq. The Iraqi army even though "trained" by the USA would always fold and run away just like the Afghan "army" will.

A very small group of fanatics can run riot through a huge group of moderates as proved through history.

The telling time will be when/if ISIS try their luck against an Iran, Saudi etc.

They will never train an army from the people they terrorise, and they will spread themselves too thin.

As repulsive as they are, in the long term ISIS may be the start of the end of Muslim Extremism on a global scale as we know it.......they are going for the jackpot and they will end up with nothing except revulsion.

"IF" it deteriorates, then action would be needed.

USA and probably Iran etc know this??

For all the Iran, Saudi, Syria etc history, they actually now look half decent?

As I said before, support for an dropped off a cliff in the Muslim world. There is no chance of extremism throughout the region. The numbers simply are against them. I suspect that hey have peaked anyway
 
It seems obvious to me that the common denominator is state "failure", be that either total failure (Syria) or a situation where a government has almost completely shut out one or more of the minority groups in its population (Iraq and Egypt).

ISIS surely would not have gained the momentum it has were it not for these vacuums in Syria and Iraq.

As for its support (a point you allude to, Clive), no group in the mould of ISIS could exist without the (mostly) tacit support from at least a segment of the population. But I think it is important to disentangle the source of that support from the group's ideology. A lot of Sunni Muslims seem to feel compelled to at least tolerate ISIS due to a lack of other options. In Iraq Maliki has done his best to shut Sunnis out of the decision-making process, and in Syria ISIS are ostensibly waging a war (and seem to be the group most likely to succeed) to topple a hated Shiite tyrant. What is really troubling is the complete failure of moderate Sunni elements to step forward and fill the void.


That's about right. Agree with that entirely. But maybe they have themselves created another vacuum?
 
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Make your bloody mind up Clive.

"That's about right. Agree with that entirely".

You ought to check just what it is you're agreeing with

"ISIS surely would not have gained the momentum it has were it not for these vacuums in Syria and Iraq".

This vacuum in Iraq was created as a direct result of failed American intervention. Unless of course you count removing the person who gave the country stability as a success, and replacing it with civil war that kileld more Iraqis than Saddam

One simple question for you Clive.

Do you believe that if Saddam were in power today and had not been invaded on the back of 9/11 (an act Iraq palpably had nothing to do with) that ISIS would be running half the country today, with the threat of over running if things were left to their own devices? That is a simple yes / no answer

You're other points I might get back to, but they're hopelessly lost really. You're making the fundamental mistake that American commanders made when trying to get a handle on AQ, which frankly by now you should have grasped. They are not (nor were they ever) a traditional top down hierarchical command and control structure. The system is more lattice based cadres bound together by nodes which allows them to define their objectives locally, regionally, or internationally. It's why AQ in Indonesia has vastly different aspirations to that in Somali, or Libya.

You still need to account for me how they ever came into being in Iraq incidentally?
 
Wrong on too many accounts

Aq not about "grievances". That's close to justifying their actions. It is an evil ideology who's only grievance wa the actual existence of non believers. Isis is the same. Also they did to all intents and purposes control a country. Afghanistan

Italy is no comparison at all. Mussolini did not exactly bring about the extrme social repression that will come with isis.

Of course I support Americas view. I believe in the success of liberal democratic states. Well I don't have to believe in it, it's there. Blindingly obvious. Eventually we might see such states in the Arab world once they through off the shackles of religous domination and tolerance of dictatorships.

I wonder if many do actually look to the economic success of Israel and wonder? Or maybe Tunisia will lead the way? I once read that there the number of patents (always the best indicator of an developing economy) in the Arab world was a tiny fraction of South Koreas

Americas allies are just as evil as isis? I don't think so.

Also I find your opinions of Arab dictators pretty troubling . Is it really forgotten now what saddam was about? The suggestion too that he had no alternative than to murdr the marsh Arabs because they could have overthrown him is ludicrous. The marsh Arabs????????
.
The idea that there is no alternative is rubbish

They said that about South Africa didnt they? Also about the eastern bloc? Every dictatorship going would have an apologist saying that is the "best for them". Depressing opinion and frankly not justified by even the hard lefts soft spot for "strong men"


There should be a multiquote function in here somewhere, but for such time as Clive's doubtless salivating all over the Kennington Oval glorifying in the demise of decadent, capitalist India paying the price for their commercial extravagance and wilting in the test match I suppose it's worth revisiting his points

In the first case you're completely wrong. The word 'grievance' is for the beholder to define. AQ was never a top down hierarchy (as already noted). How often do you hear western commentators refer to groups as being "AQ inspired" , or having "links to AQ" or "affiliated to AQ". They rarely refer to them as AQ for the very good reason that AQ barely exists beyond a network. If you want a structural similarity, something like Linkedin isn't that far removed (I'll spare feeding you the obvious line about evil bonding). AQ affiliates are therefore responsible for defining their own jihadist terms and conditions based on whatever grievance they perceive to be operating within their locality, region, or country

You've completely missed the point about Mussolini. The point I was making is that well resourced and motivated minorites can dominate majorities and case mayhem inbetween the period before intervention. You can't vote against an army that doesn't want to listen to the results (as Jonah Savimbi showed in Angola). This is what happened in Italy. The factory owners and industrialists of Turin, and Milan supported Il Duce. As did the judiciary in Rome and the various city police forces and army. Sure the peasent farmers of the south didn't, nor did whole swathes of the working class slum dwellers (there was a reason why the invasion was greeted as a liberation and why so many Italians switched sides) but these people couldn't fight back. They'd have lost. Now you might like to argue that after 10 years of training and supply from the USA better should have been expected of the Iraqi army. That's another point, but if you believe that, then you have to accept that part of the reason why ISIS has gained ground so spectacularly is due to failure on the planning side post Saddam.

As regards supporting America's view, I believe you might have made a slight typo in omitting the word 'blindly'. Can you confirm this please? Similarly, can you also confirm that you believed them blindly when they told you that Iraq possessed WMD, and confirm that in hindsight this turned out to be a lie? In fact Bush even said something hysterical when justifying the decision later on, which was "they sure as hell are now" - when asked as to whether they were a threat when they were invaded - he said that without any sense of irony

I'm not sure that the registry of patents stands up in a region that frankly doesn't need to register patents or invent anything new. The oil states of the gulf have such a completely different economic model that a different set of rules does apply. Even innovative things like 'slant drilling' as practised by Kuwait against Iraq, was copied off the Texans

I wouldn't differentiate betwee ISIS and America's allies that closely Clive. Do you regard the country that finances the terror to be less guilty then? In terms of paralells we have interesting one at the moment by way of broadly similar concept. David Cameron is considering making it an offence to have covered up for someone who you knew to be guilty of child abuse (a third party actor becoming culpable in other words). I suspect he's aiming at the BBC but will back off when he realises he's on a collision course with the Pope, but leaving that aside, if he's prepared to accept that the background conveyance is part of the crime, then the funders of terror (Qatar and Saudi Arabia) get off scot free compared to those who had nothing to do with it (Iraq and Libya). Surely you can see the inconsistency here? If you can't, then you'll never be capable of addressing it, because you'll consistently be looking in the wrong direction for fear of finding something that inconveniences your prejudged position as to who is good and who is bad

The Marsh Arabs if they were supported could have overthrown Saddam. 500 protestors in Benghazi overthrew Gaddafi, as did some motley student in 1978 overthrow the shah and set in train the islamic revolution. Causation in history is well documented and its foolish to say X could never cause Y. In fact the very best example of how a snowball rolls is having its anniversary this year. Could a chauffeur altering his route back from the city in hall in Sarajevo in 1914 really have caused millions of people to be killed in a war, established the Soviet Union, and set in train the conditions that would lead to a second world war in Europe and a nuclear age that followed it? And yet had he returned the other way (the one he was meant to) Princep wouldn't have been sitting in a coffee bar with a revolver and able to take his chance.

More specifially on the marsh arabs though, lets not forget "the world would not shed a tear" (George H Bush when asked about the prospects of them successfully overthrowing Saddam). He followed it up by saying that the "Iraqi should take matters into their own hands". In other language Clive he encouraged them, and if you recall correctly, they made good progress in the first 2-3 weeks, (as indeed the Kurds did in the north). The State Department however did a post Saddam scenario build, and very quickly concluded that a crippled Saddam was an infinitely better option for stability in the region (strange that one isn't it). I'd say the state department of the early 1990's had a better grasp on the situation than they did when the labotimised son came along a decade later. The US (or Bush the first to be more precise) egged the Iraqi opposition on, but on being advised that this might not be a good idea after all, abandoned them to their fate. War and civil war is messy Clive. If you've tried to overthrow and kill people, they'll take their revenge on you 8 times out of 10

The they who said it about South Africa I hope you'll clarify was the reactionary right wing, principally Margaret Thatcher and Ronald O'Reagan. The left wing didn't, precisely because the ANC (and even the PAC for that matter) were established political parties of many decades standing (broadly similar to the British Labour party in longevity - albeit that was a movement turned political). It was definitely Thatch and Reagan who adopted the way know best, and that these people can't be expected to rule themselves because they're dysfunctional tribes (well perhaps Inkhata might have exhibited that a bit) but the ANC didn't. Strangely though, she also negotiated the independence and crooked elections in Rhodesia at the same time? Strange that isn't it? Perhaps the Thatcher family didn't have as much personal business interest in Zimbabwe and were therefore more prepared to prop up a truly nasty regime in South Africa and denounce the likes of Mandela as "terrorists" - which i assume you blindly believed and followed as well? Actually - in fairness to you, I rather suspect you might not have done in truth
 
Too long

Aq was more top down than often assumef. Jason burkes writings are clear on this. Its not coincidental that their attacks lessened as the drones hit?

Saudi and qatar maybe financing but we do not know for certain. if its individuals there then thats that

Miss point entirely on america. I am not talking about one episode but about what they and the west stand for

syria jordan egypt do not have oil. Lack of patents illustrate an economy with little enterprise and diversification. That is an issue
 
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