I honestly believe this to be the most significant comment so far on the thread, and I am surprised that Warbler, for all his crystal-ball gazing has not addressed it.
FWIW, I entirely agree with the sentiment. I don't think attacking or even destroying the Caliphate ( which is unlikely) will change the current dynamic.
Even if such a far-fetched outcome of killing off the Caliphate was to be realised, the underlying ideology which is the driver of Islamic State will still be there and will continue to draw in those of twisted mindset.....
Whats the solution? I dunno, and I despair.
Leaving aside the denunciation of Islam and all the fault lines and contradictions that exist there (nothing I'd seek to fundamentally disagree with), I'd return instead to the caliphate and the 'defeat' of the enemy
I'm a little bit nervous at the outset about people who say it won't make any difference, as this increasingly sounds like the last refuge for those who've advocated policies that have helped create the caliphate in the first place. It's almost as if they're trying to cleanse themselves by convincing themselves it would have happened regardless. Sadly I just don't think the evidence supports that. Or more to the point, they've got to explain satisfactorily why this has only happened post western intervention, and post the removal of the dictators. The tensions, pressures, and aspirations have always existed, but only now have they gained the ascendancy. It wasn't Saddam's dictatorship that spawned the islamic State, but rather the failure of Iraqi democracy and to put it frankly, the cowardice of their army. The whole Iraqi transplant experiement in other language. I see no evidence that the likes of the Sadr Army or Ansar al Islam were gaining any traction under the Ba'athists that would lead you to conclude that Iraq was about to fall to into the hands of an Islamic State
That kind of brings me to the caliphate itself. I think you have to respect the zeal with which those who have sworn allegiance to it are prepared to defend it, I think equally you'd be stupid not to show respect for their ability to replenish losses too and recruit, but outside of these factors, they don't hold a strong set of cards for a whole host of strategic reasons. The legitimacy of the caliphate and the loyalty to the caliph is predicated on territorial expansion. If this is checked, and then thrown into reverse, those who've sworn are unbonded (heaven knows where they go) but they are surrounded by hostile places (in theory) albeit I'd like to see Turkey tighten up. I suspect we might be able to push west along the northern frontier to create a Kurdistan which isn't going to be welcoming to any ISIL soldiers attempting to flee. The combined industrial might and military assests of the west have thrown back bigger enemies than ISIL
I think the caliphate can be defeated, but I have little doubt they've benefited hugely from western powers identifying the wrong enemy, and other regional interests always seemingly finding another agenda to prioritise. I do feel however that we need to try and empower Iraq and Syria to regain their own territory rather than blundering in ourselves and becoming ever bigger targets for future attacks. Ultimately, if we have to, then we have to, but we should be trying to build a bigger international coalition (should have been doing that at the outset, but again we got caught looking in other directions)
I think you're right to say Islamofascism isn't going to go away though, and that the defeat of the caliphate won't signal the end of this. The Romans were the super power of the day, and they couldn't surpress christianity. The Soviets couldn't quite get rid of the Russian Orthodox despite confronting it with science. The Chinese the buddhists etc I think you could argue that the fundamental difference is that all these religions wanted was the right to practise, rather than trying to impose and convert on pain of death. That's clearly a massive difference of emphasis, but a strong power can get on top of a religion and possibly hope to manage a state of perma-predominance
As you say though, I'm sure it's going to continue, and there might be an issue as to whether they can claim expansion of the caliphate beyond the middle east constitutes it's continued growth and influence. There's also going to be a first generation of children approaching martyrdom age who were born into the Islamic State hitting the market in the next 10 years to consider too (not sure where they go either). I equally feel though that destroying it will set things back, (not their ambitions - just their capability) and if the destruction is visited upon it by Syria and Iraq, then it might restrict the global grievance or perhaps dilute it amongst many enemies. I'm equally aware though that this might set off a terrible regional conflict between sunni and shia too - that's a very legitimate worry. How are the sunni states going to react if the shia militas and Syrian government set out on a reprisal mission?
I think the conflict from history that it might remind me of most is the 100 years war, which was really a series of campaigns with periods of badly managed peace in between. I think there is a danger that during these periods we can get lulled into a false sense of security, until the snake strikes out from under its stone now and then and another cycle starts. It's why I'm equally worried by this complacent attitude that runs along the lines of
nothings happened yet, none of the bad predictions have come true, so we don't really have anything to worry about - until it does! and when it does, all of this complacency is wiped away at a stroke
I think finally, that you have to be very, very concerned about how our own society is going to evolve and the very likely prospect that this will spill onto our streets eventually, and that for now at least, we are badly prepared to respond to it. We are going to have to look at ways in which we organise society and our protective services, quite probably adopting aspects of the American approach
If I were guessing, I think North Africa will ultimately prove to be the hotbed and that's where I think the epicentre could transfer to within two or three decades
It's a dismal prognosis admittedly, but I still feel we can put a lid on this, but my god if someone said write out a play book of how not to manage a foreign policy, the things our collective leaders have managed over the last 15 years wouldn't be far off your answer