So Dave is finishing off his u turn. There's probably little currency to be gained now from rubbing this in other than to say the simple fact is he could have (and should have) arrived at this decision four years ago. IS was always the threat and not Assad. I think most fair minded people can see this for what it is, an error of judgement being corrected. I'm not quite so convinced that the thankful departure of William Hague isn't completely unconnected. So we move onto the next phase
The speed with which the French and the Russians appear to be speaking with each other, and indeed co-ordinating activity is perhaps a bit surprising. It might even be signalling the beginning of closer links between the EU and Russia in the wider political schema (next 10-20 years). It doesn't seem to me at least to be too big a stretch of the imagination to suggest that over this temporal horizon Europe is likely to be sharing many of the anxieties and tensions that Russia is, rather than those shared by the geographically more isolated America. A natural alliance of the necessary could easily start to evolve once they abandon Tsarism. America (well Obama at least) continues to insist that the threat is over stated and that ISIL are "contained" which naturally enough is going to lead to the French in this case being more receptive to taking Putin up on his offer.
For our part though, we're seemingly faced with the next big decision (albeit events could always take a hand which force this of course). Do we start a bombing campaign? Do we throw the might of our 6 Tornados into fray to tip the balance decisively? or do we take a longer term and more strategic view of this and look to contribute elsewhere and perhaps in a way that might be something other than tokenistic?
I just can't help feeling that Cameron is making another error to compound one he's already made, and that sadly he seems to be aware of it too. If he acknowledges that his dropping bombs and firing missiles is going to make no difference, as he did on Monday, why do it? I get that there is an issue of principle involved, but this is outweighed imo by a requirement to be smart. There are plenty of overs to be bowled in this match yet. My instinct is to take a backseat here, even if this does involve a loss of imaginary national prestige.
Tactically a bombing campaign is only really of any benefit if you've got the infantry in place to capitalise on the weakening of a defensive position that it creates (within the first 6 hours). ISIL will replenish their losses and doubtless use civilian casualties caused by it (genuine or otherwise) to recruit further lemmings.
Ultimately this is likely to be fought as an end game in the rubble of Raaqa, which possibly means sniper rifles and flame throwers, the former of which we do actually have expertise in
In the longer term of course the fight will continue beyond this theatre. At this stage I find myself sympathetic to the aspiration, but in disagreement with the tactics, and questioning whether ego and loss of national prestige isn't all of sudden starting to dangerously drive the decision making process. Indeed, I read an account from the BBC that links it to the trevails of Jeremy Corbyn getting a hard time from Labour MP's on Monday night. If Cameron is seriously formulating defence policy and strategic decisions based around Jeremy Corbyn's internal political issues, then I despair of him. Such a perverse approach is just reckless and endangering all of us with such warped priorities. God forbid he is