Juddmonte International

Tanlic said:
Not the worst idea they have ever had is it?
Click to expand...

If he's good enough to take them far enough in to the race. Though if there was no pace would Gleneagles do too much. This way we should get a decently run race.
 
I wonder why did they left Criterion in the race? Surely not in the same sphere as the top 4 in betting, has to give weight away to younger legs in GH, GLN and TT and the prize money is not that great either.. one upside is that he'll arrive back in Aus in good form for their big races but still..
 
the older horses aren't giving any weight away though..as has been mentioned..wfa..isn't giving weight as in a disadvantage..its correcting immaturity

if Usain Bolt ran against a 16 year old he would have to give a few yards start to him ..just to allow for the 16 year old not being fully grown...thats not making UB disadvantaged..its evening up the maturity gap.
 
WFA is giving weight to lesser physical/mental developed horses due to their younger age, the problem is that some of the 3yo's are physically developed at a much faster rate than normal and you get a very good 3yo that won't be able to stand on his own as a 4yo. We even have a 2yo, namely Acapulco who looks like 4yo and will get huge amount of weight in the Nunthorpe. Calling a younger horse the receiver of weight in a WFA race isn't wrong, is just a scale of how much weight they receive from the handicapper. Timeform has a different scale so which one is correct ? What if GH matured more than 3lbs since last meeting TGG, these scales can't predict improvements for each individual horse. It'll make all the difference if he receives more weight than he has developed in the last month. As far as I'm concerned 3yo's are not extraordinary horses until they prove they can give weight away as 4yo's which most can't do, thats why they're sent to stud as soon as possible.
 
why does a 3yo have to be good to give weight to a 4yo? thats illogical really. thats like asking an average 16 year old to give start to Usain Bolt..just in case he is mature beyond his years. On average your 16 year old..even if it was Bolt himself as a young un would need start against Older Bolt..there is no way a 16 year old is the same as even his own 21 year old self

No one knows if GH is a mature 3yo or an average one..it can't be measured so you have to have a wfa scale. It matters not what Timeform or anyone else has..we have the official one in place.

of course some 3yo's develop more than others..but if you didn't give wfa to 3yo then you wouldn't ever get 3yo's competing against their elders..so most G1's would be fought out by only 4yo+s that hadn't gone to stud..that would damage Group worth..as when top 3yo's don't run in the King George..average OHR drops..see that recent thread

the scale isn't there for individual horses..its an average. not ideal..but then what you going to replace it with?
 
Last edited:
yes the wfa is very important, I'm only arguing that undeveloped horses do in fact `receive weight` with this official scale, meaning that TGG will give weight away but what if GH hasn't improved a bit since they've last met and now the scale only gives him 8lbs advantage vs 11lbs lto, wouldn't TGG be getting closer? If he did improved as expected than the difference between them will be the same, unless TGG finds more at York as he has a good record over there.
 
It's not just his good record at the track, the pace they'll go in this will suit the horse much better. I'm amazed he's double figures with eight left in. Immense each way price and also handy with one of those firms who return stake as a freebie if your selection is second.
 
Last edited:
Sometimes in races 3 lbs is not 3 lbs and GH V TGG is one of them IMO.


If they went off at levels this week I'd still be in Golden Horn's camp.


It's not like TGG is the Mill Reef of 2014 he's a very ordinary animal (comparatively)with limited talent.

Expecting him to beat a good animal like GH and give him weight is like shooting at the moon with a peashooter.

He's entitled to run but the chances of him taking home the bacon and slim to non existent and that's why he's 12/1

These young horse have done what TGG would like to have done but didn't he's out of his league.
 
Last edited:
on his day he did beat Australia, you know the second coming of Christ that AOB wanted us to believe last year.. maybe he'll beat the new Christ this year that many want us to believe GH is.
 
Tanlic said:
These young horse have done what TGG would like to have done but didn't he's out of his league.
Click to expand...

You mean like win a Classic or an all aged Group 1. If you look at the form book again you might find these achievements on his record.

Bottom line is he's twice the price of Time Test, and that is just plain wrong.
 
I think Golden Horn will beat the field in style

for the second place I much prefer The Grey Gatsby
I have him higher than Gleaneagles that is also a doubtful stayer and Time Test that is a good prospect but overrated at the moment, I have him on 119.
 
I'm dubious about Golden Horn over this trip. I know people saying the derby form strong but they are judging that on Jack Hobbs winning the Irish version against the same horses he beat in the derby not sure how that makes it stronger surely the same? His earlier races in the season as well the form has hardly been franked. Personally think the media have just got on the hype bus. Yes he beat TGG in the eclipse but it hardly looked comfortable for a long way and TGG must have been knackered from that battle at Royal Ascot and it came plenty soon enough.
Dettori another negative for me as well it's all very well winning races when you are on the best horse by far,but this season when a horse has needed something extra I don't think I can recall him giving it to the horse like a Moore would.
I'm a massive layer.
 
SP Only said:
I'm dubious about Golden Horn over this trip. I know people saying the derby form strong but they are judging that on Jack Hobbs winning the Irish version against the same horses he beat in the derby not sure how that makes it stronger surely the same? His earlier races in the season as well the form has hardly been franked. Personally think the media have just got on the hype bus. Yes he beat TGG in the eclipse but it hardly looked comfortable for a long way and TGG must have been knackered from that battle at Royal Ascot and it came plenty soon enough.
Click to expand...


whats wrong with the trip?long? short?

the form not being franked?
jack hobbs put in his place twice winning the irish derby in a canter
the eclipse doing all reading bvery well with the last 2 winning group races and the collateral form with the prince of wales reading very well
I think he is a proper 130 horse
 
The 75k spent supplementing a pacemaker hardly suggests the GH team view it a walkover, and I'll be surprised if it's not a closer affair than the Eclipse. Even if Gleneagles doesn't stay, there are a couple of good 10f horses in there that can finish with a rattle, and Frankie will need to be at his finest to draw both stings simultaneously.
Halfway hope GH doesn't win, as he's more likely to turn up for the Arc if his undefeated record's blown.
 
sunybay said:
whats wrong with the trip?long? short?

the form not being franked?
jack hobbs put in his place twice winning the irish derby in a canter
the eclipse doing all reading bvery well with the last 2 winning group races and the collateral form with the prince of wales reading very well
I think he is a proper 130 horse
Click to expand...

I think the trip will be too short for him and he will get done for a turn of foot.
I get JH winning the Irish derby but like I said he beat the same horses as he had in the Derby so don't see how that makes the form stronger just the same? Nothing has franked it outside of him.
Against TGG I can't have TGG running to form after Ascot. How many horses that hard races there performed next time very few.
I think he's a weak favourite in a very strong renewal and like I said feel the media are hyping him up to be something he isn't. I'll be delighted to be wrong but I suspect I won't be.
 
I think he'll win but TGG will chase him hard like he did Australia last year.

Outside of that race the rest of the meeting looks really good, better than RA this year.

Doumen has a 3yo still in the Yorkshire Oaks who looks way too big at 14s. Just a tad worried she won't come over even though the ground will be OK



Some good handicaps, the Lowther looks stacked and the Nunthorpe looks the best renewal for ages. Just a shame the feckers I work for wouldn't give me the week off.
 
It's been raining here since I got up and must have eased the ground a fair bit I think. Must be a question mark over Gleneagles running.
 
The weather forecast in the UK is a joke at the best of times......However on this occasion they got it right they said it could rain but it might not :lol:
 
I like this HEARTBREAK CITY at the foot of the weights. Backed very strongly in Ireland the last time. And Frannie is booked. I know Frannie usually is riding the class horse at the top. Is there anything in that? Or do you see Makin as a better choice? Good luck today all
 
So annoying we had this rain. Quick ground would have made it interesting. Leaning towards the fav now.
 
Back
Top