Juvenile Hurdlers 2014/2015

Aragorn said:
Some performance from Beltor. I had to back him for the triumph after because the prices were just wrong. Should be single figures. Could have won that by 20l if O'Brien had let him go earlier.
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Very impressive wasn't he . Found myself wondering whether Ms Mossop will be getting a call from Frank Berry waving a big cheque.
 
Aragorn said:
Some performance from Beltor. I had to back him for the triumph after because the prices were just wrong. Should be single figures. Could have won that by 20l if O'Brien had let him go earlier.
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Totally agree. He was almost pulling all the way round. If into stats, it's a fine race for throwing up triumph winners (I seem to recall). Bigger stable and he would be half the price
 
Shortened into the right kind of price now but it was a definite rick in the market because if he was trained by Mullins he would have been half the 14/1 that was on offer.
 
Nice horse beats an unknown who best for beforehand was beating trees. The 3rd horse hasn't gone a yard on the ground.

Time for the race 3 seconds slower than Day of Heaven who isn't considered to be good enough by NJH to hold an entry at the festival

Quickened of a slow pace may well have flattered him

Having backed Peace and Co I am shaking in my boots :cool:
 
Early pace was slow. He beat Bivouac the same distance on the same ground as Peace and co did.

Im not saying he's the most likely winner and Peace and Co is a worthy favourite but the price after the race for the Triumph was clearly wrong as he's now 11/1 with one bookmaker but generally 10's. Some firms offered 16's after the race.
 
Gutted I missed the 16/1 post race and as said, if he was a Mullins or Hendo poke would be shorter still. A faster pace will help & hopefully he's underestimated on the day and a backable price
 
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Best keep your money in your pockets unless you plan to back him ew in my opinion

Bivouac has run at least 12lbs below his best finishing just ahead of Officer dribble.

The second is thought not good enough for the Triumph and been entered only in the Fred Winter

No doubt Belator will improve again but Peace and Co looks certain to improve for a stronger pace and none of those at Cheltenham last time are likely to get so close to him again.

As far as being a Hendo poke affecting his price goes Hargam is a Hendo poke and he was available around the same price as after he won this trial.

I would think the bookmakers are basing his price on the Bivouac factor and the fact the time was dreadfully slow
 
So did Bivouac run 12lbs below his best behind Peace and Co?

P.s I've started only reading the first lines of your posts because they seem to be getting longer and more boring so if you've actually backed up what you're saying I apologise but past experience tells me it'll read "I know best.... Blah blah.... Hendos a legend blah blah... He rang me this morning to say Peace and Co ha definitely grown wings and was Pegasus incarnate.... Blah blah... When I were a lad.... Blah blah" you get my point..... Blah blah blah ;)
 
Aragorn said:
So did Bivouac run 12lbs below his best behind Peace and Co?

P.s I've started only reading the first lines of your posts because they seem to be getting longer and more boring so if you've actually backed up what you're saying I apologise but past experience tells me it'll read "I know best.... Blah blah.... Hendos a legend blah blah... He rang me this morning to say Peace and Co ha definitely grown wings and was Pegasus incarnate.... Blah blah... When I were a lad.... Blah blah" you get my point..... Blah blah blah ;)
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Pig ignorant post go **** yourself
 
Found an article in the gloucestershire herald saying he's 80% certain to go for the Triumph.

It did say Stephens was originally in favour of going to Aintree.
 
Tanlic said:
Found an article in the gloucestershire herald saying he's 80% certain to go for the Triumph.

It did say Stephens was originally in favour of going to Aintree.
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Fully entitled too. I would be against him.
 
I'm already against him so don't have much of a choice.

He's certainly a much better horse over hurdles than he was on the flat and by some way.

Wasn't a bad race he won at Redcar but then disappointed off 76.

Over hurdles he's made mincemeat of a couple of horses who were on the flat rated about 10lbs his superior.

Bivouac isn't the best of yardsticks having blundered badly at Cheltenham when maybe he'd have finished 3rd
behind Peace and Co then ran a stinker on Saturday.

Officer Dribble who finished 4th on Saturday beaten 16 lengths, had won 2 hurdle races beforehand
but in between the 2 he ran into Peace and Co at Donnie and was beaten a massive 46 lengths

Don't know if you can draw any reliable conclusions from that and it would seem the only way
Robert Stephens has of knowing if he's good enough is go to Cheltenham and find out.
 
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Stephens was reticent and non-committal after the race on RUK when Machin interviewed him; he clearly wanted to let the dust settle.

Tom O'Brien on the other hand looked like he'd just won the lottery....
 
I think he has to run him A

I see NJH said on the SL video he intends to run To Notch in the Supreme if anything should happen to L'Ami Serge

Run on the Old Course which is tighter and more suited to speed I would have thought Hargam would have been the substitute ?

Probably means nothing as Top Notch is the most experienced of his three runners.

How odd the interviewer never asked him which of the 3 he thought had the best chance:blink:..Probably been told do not ask me that!!

Anyway Paddy Power has seen fit to push Peace and Co out to 5/2 and Corals out to 9/4 but Ladbrokes and Bet365 offer only 7/4.

Beltor has gone 8/1 across the boards....but Both Peace and Co and Beltor are tight on the machine with no one willing to lay either but Hargam has taken a few walks to 8/1

It will be interest betting on the day but I could see them going Peace and Co 6/4 Beltor 9/2. More Chance they will go for Beltor to upset the fav than his own stable companion imo

Beltor back to lay looks a good bet to me....green up and have a bet to nothing on what ever you fancy
 
Tanlic said:
Run on the Old Course which is tighter and more suited to speed I would have thought Hargam would have been the substitute ?
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The Supreme hasn't been a great race to shove 4yo's in though Tanlic..very few run in it and only Hors La Loi has won in 26 years..Binocular was 2nd in it.
 
Tanlic said:
I think he has to run him A

I see NJH said on the SL video he intends to run To Notch in the Supreme if anything should happen to L'Ami Serge
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Think you may have slightly misinterpreted that Tanlic. He said he was originally going to be the substitute for Peace and Co in the Triumph but now he goes regardless. At least that is the quote in this morning's RP Cheltenham stable tour, though I admit I haven't seen the Sporting Life video yet.

He's illegible for the Supreme.
 
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Tanlic said:
I think he has to run him A

I see NJH said on the SL video he intends to run To Notch in the Supreme if anything should happen to L'Ami Serge

Run on the Old Course which is tighter and more suited to speed I would have thought Hargam would have been the substitute ?

Probably means nothing as Top Notch is the most experienced of his three runners.

How odd the interviewer never asked him which of the 3 he thought had the best chance:blink:..Probably been told do not ask me that!!

Anyway Paddy Power has seen fit to push Peace and Co out to 5/2 and Corals out to 9/4 but Ladbrokes and Bet365 offer only 7/4.

Beltor has gone 8/1 across the boards....but Both Peace and Co and Beltor are tight on the machine with no one willing to lay either but Hargam has taken a few walks to 8/1

It will be interest betting on the day but I could see them going Peace and Co 6/4 Beltor 9/2. More Chance they will go for Beltor to upset the fav than his own stable companion imo

Beltor back to lay looks a good bet to me....green up and have a bet to nothing on what ever you fancy
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I'm on at 16's - Like I said at the time, the price post race was just wrong.
 
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Not technically a novice as he won a hurdle race in March last year in France, beating the horse that is now with Nichols.
 
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