Juvenile Hurdlers 2014/2015

Cheers big fella! Old boy is exactly how I feel...

I've behaved myself today and will probably be a good boy until I'm back in England next week.
 
Kalkir returns to action at Leopardstown tomorrow and whilst he looks head and shoulders above anything seen in Ireland this season, the unbeaten duo of Thunder Zone and Crafty Codger should keep him honest whilst Dai Bando is a fair yardstick and Kabjoy, who was below his best last time, is entitled to finish a little closer.

Fontwell hosts its fourth Juvenile of the season and it would probably be as weak as any seen at the West Sussex venue this term.

Bishop Wulstan is the only winner jumps winner in the field and that success came at Ludlow when a 25/1 shot in an October maiden contest. Whilst it helped that the favourite underperformed, his victory wasn't as unexpected as the price implied as he was capable on a going day for Richard Hannon on the flat. The form of that Ludlow contest has stood up nicely for a race of its nature as the runner up since took a handicap and of the horses whom finished in behind to have ran since, every one of them has finished placed. Next time out, he contested a listed race (in name only) at Wetherby where the race wasn't run to suit and he found it all happening too quickly but he kept on at his pace and was beaten by less than nine lengths. The runner up was predictably well beaten at Cheltenham but she did run with credit at Newbury last week to give the form some credence. Bishop Wulstan fell heavily in the middle stages on his penultimate start but showed no ill effects when putting up a career best in either discipline last time out at Doncaster. Although most of his career has been spent on good ground or firmer, he had no problems handling the soft conditions and whilst the tactical astuteness of the conditional on board was questionable, his mount's stamina wasn't as he kept on from a mile out and may well have put his head in front given another fifty yards. The same jockey (who happens to be the trainer's assistant) takes the ride again here and whilst he only has two career wins to his name, the seven pounds will offset the penalty. Libeccio was a reasonable sort on the flat for Andrew Balding, winding up with a rating of 75 before joining Charlie Mann for 36,000 guineas. Going into his jumps debut at Warwick, there were concerns over his attitude and his ability to handle soft and these concerns were well founded as his jumping wasn't the neatest and he finished eleventh of thirteen. He could be capable of being competitive in this sphere but he might need firmer ground and a handicap mark first. Dino Mite is a half sister to the sadly departed Cockney Sparrow and made her debut in the same mares listed race at Aintree in which her illustrious sister finished second behind L'Unique a few seasons ago. Unfortunately for connections, she could not follow in those footsteps as she finished fifty-nine lengths behind the winner. Her tendency to jump right handed didn't help her cause either and does not bode well for a return to a left handed track. Poetic Justice made his debut in a five runner junior bumper at Towcester towards the end of last month and he found himself finishing a well beaten fourth. The gelding who finished twenty-nine lengths ahead of him subsequently finished last in a Plumpton novice. Poetic Justice's connections are also responsible for Norse Legend who despite being useless on the flat, won at Plumpton before finishing a close runner up under a penalty in a much stronger contest at this venue earlier this month so if there's money for the Chris Gordon, it would instil hope in an otherwise hopeless cause.

Whilst all horses are lovely and wonderful, those with experience don't have one picturing a future at the Cheltenham festival. However, the two newcomers aren't any more inspiring - lovely though they both are. Dan Skelton is having an impressive second season as a trainer and hasn't done at all badly with his juveniles this term. Following the respectable placed efforts of Boss des Mottes and Adrakhan, his juveniles came off the mark with the likeable Zarib last week and he hopes to repeat the dose with Rock Of Leon. The son of Rock Of Gibraltar wouldn't be in the same league on the flat as Zarib but he was at least able to win in that discipline before leaving Michael Bell for 16,000 guineas. He took a while to get going but he found his groove when stepping up to distances greater than a mile and a half and narrowly broke his duck in an extended two mile handicap at Wolverhampton. His other best effort came in another low grade handicap over two miles on firm ground at Nottingham. The form of both of these races have worked out well and it's reasonable to assume that over two miles on the flat, he's well handicapped off 57. Nevertheless, this is still not a high level of form, he's ran poorly on his only two attempts on soft ground, two mile two may still not be far enough over hurdles and he was not one to be relied upon in terms of disposition. Par Three will be the first juvenile representative for Tony Carrol since June, a yard which can train juvenile winners such as Blazing Buck and Akdam. Furthermore, in Azamour, he has a sire that has, in the past, produced classy juveniles such as Zarkandar, Third Intention and Dawalan and has been in flying form with this season's crop with Karezak, Seamour and Zarib making the winners enclosure and Magic Magnolia putting in numerous respectable efforts. However, he left the Jessica Harrington yard for just €7,500 after a six run career that saw him finish no closer than fifth. There's every reason to believe he will stay the trip and he is well connected but the fact he left a jumps trainer before being tried in that discipline has to be a concern.

Arbitrary 1-2-3
1. Bishop Wulstan
2. Rock Of Leon
3. Dino Mite

Dino Mite .5 Cockney Sparrow 1st Scottish Champion Hurdle (G2, 148), Ayr 2014
Bishop Wulstan .5 Gibb River 1st Handicap Hurdle (144), Sandown 2012 (.5 Goblet Of Fire 3/2 Mon Michel 3/3 Sword Fish)
Poetic Justice 4/2 Edberg 2nd Melling Chase (G1), Aintree 1992 (4/3 Comanche War Paint)
Rock Of Leon 4/3 Ikra 1st Prix Achille-Fould (Listed), Auteuil 2007
Libeccio 3/1 Poet 1st Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Par Three 2/1 Lexington Bay 3rd Novices' Hurdle, Wetherby 2012

Sires
Rock Of Leon - Rock Of Gibraltar(8)
Par Three - Azamour (4)
Libeccio - Shirocco (3)
Bishop Wulstan - Oratorio (1)
Poetic Justice - Byron
Dino Mite - Doctor Dino
 
I read he's a complete gentleman of a horse....seems they were right did you see notice he went out of his way to say hello to the racegoers :)

Thanks A.......sure to be a lotta people's banker to get off to a good start
 
I bet you wish I was going to tell you Nicky was going to run him in the Supreme................20/1 Ooooo!!! :lol:

Realised that when I woke up this morning and had another look at PC's video

Brain closes down at midnight and it was one of my after midnight posts.:o
 
I need help.

The Triumph ******* Hurdle. After having a stern word with myself after a series of borderline obsessional dalliances I find myself once again in again like a dirty shirt.

This is way beyond a guilty pleasure. This is taking me back to a decidedly dark, unsavoury, and unmanageable for that matter, 'thing' I somehow cultivated for Judith Chalmers in my mid-teens.

Maximum investment, minimum return. Greed rhymes with need. Nicky rhymes with 'sicky' and I've chucked 'em. Lost hours, days, weeks...

Closure. Save a soul. Somebody just give me the winner.

Preferably now.

I won't even back it. Be mine and only mine.......Judith.......e/w????
 
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Ivantheterrible said:
I need help.

The Triumph ******* Hurdle. After having a stern word with myself after a series of borderline obsessional dalliances I find myself once again in again like a dirty shirt.

This is way beyond a guilty pleasure. This is taking me back to a decidedly dark, unsavoury, and unmanageable for that matter, 'thing' I somehow cultivated for Judith Chalmers in my mid-teens.

Maximum investment, minimum return. Greed rhymes with need. Nicky rhymes with 'sicky' and I've chucked 'em. Lost hours, days, weeks...

Closure. Save a soul. Somebody just give me the winner.

Preferably now.

I won't even back it. Be mine and only mine.......Judith.......e/w????
Click to expand...

:)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Ivantheterrible said:
I need help.

The Triumph ******* Hurdle. After having a stern word with myself after a series of borderline obsessional dalliances I find myself once again in again like a dirty shirt.

This is way beyond a guilty pleasure. This is taking me back to a decidedly dark, unsavoury, and unmanageable for that matter, 'thing' I somehow cultivated for Judith Chalmers in my mid-teens.

Maximum investment, minimum return. Greed rhymes with need. Nicky rhymes with 'sicky' and I've chucked 'em. Lost hours, days, weeks...

Closure. Save a soul. Somebody just give me the winner.

Preferably now.

I won't even back it. Be mine and only mine.......Judith.......e/w????
Click to expand...

I would imagine the winner will be owned by a certain S Munir
 
I was making reference not only to the horses in Hendo's care Digger but the thing of Twisters that bolted up in the Grade 1 at Chepstow on Welsh National day.
 
HARGAM

Put in a decent performance today when looking at the times of the other two hurdle races.

Ran 0.5 length slower than Retrieve.

Retrieve is a 120 horse..run to say a 124 here?...Hargam carried 22lb more..and needs 10lb adding for wfa...plus wasn't fully extended.

So you are looking at a rating of 156+ for Hargam..which is also a very similar rating you get if you work off of the 2.00 race.

pretty impressive
 
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I can only assume there is some flaw in your analysis, EC.....156 horses do not get sent to Musselburgh!! :cool:
 
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it is third fav for the triumph Grass..and it wasn't exactly a normal meeting. Clarcam got beat 5 length in same race last year for instance

its possible all 3 hurdle races weren't truly run..but they tie together well.

i'll check the split times tomorrow to see if they did go slow..they looked like decently run races to my eye

last year the juvenile race was 6 seconds slower than scottish county hurdle race for instance

more anorak investigation needed
 
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previous year Samtegal won the race...was 8 lengths slower than Brick Red..146 horse carrying 11-12...samtegal carried 11-8

wfa adjustment would have made Samtegal about a 142 mark..ran 3rd to OC in the Triumph

Hargam is a stone better than Samtegal...and if you remove the freakish performance of OC then Samtegal would come 2nd in an average TH

Hargam is a serious TH horse on that performance..imo
 
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Top work EC thanks for the heads up
Visually he was impressive and I would much be backing him E/W than Peace & Co at 6/4.
 
i'll do some stop watching tomorrow to make sure the older handicap was truly run Fonz..interesting though... especially when you look at samtegal's time v handicap time
 
EC1 said:
HARGAM

Put in a decent performance today when looking at the times of the other two hurdle races.

Ran 0.5 length slower than Retrieve.

Retrieve is a 120 horse..run to say a 124 here?...Hargam carried 22lb more..and needs 10lb adding for wfa...plus wasn't fully extended.

So you are looking at a rating of 156+ for Hargam..which is also a very similar rating you get if you work off of the 2.00 race.

pretty impressive
Click to expand...

Is that all? he has only 20lbs to make up with Peace and Co then who is the next Istabraq.:)
 
EC1 said:
HARGAM

Put in a decent performance today when looking at the times of the other two hurdle races.

Ran 0.5 length slower than Retrieve.

Retrieve is a 120 horse..run to say a 124 here?...Hargam carried 22lb more..and needs 10lb adding for wfa...plus wasn't fully extended.

So you are looking at a rating of 156+ for Hargam..which is also a very similar rating you get if you work off of the 2.00 race.

pretty impressive
Click to expand...

You got me curious so I though I'd look back at some previous results on good going at the track. The one I found back in November all the times were about 3 secs slower (there's good going and good going) but there was a similarity in that the Juvi hurdle and the handicap hurdle were run in much the same time. The winner of the Handicap carried the same weight as Retrieve but the Juvi carried 10lb less than Hargam.

El Beau the juvi in question is rated 127 so surely you'd expect that Hargam having gone through the race without any sort of pressure applied off decent pace would return a decent time?

No doubt it was a decent time but was it exceptional for a Class 1 hurdler? He also clocked a good time at Cheltenham which was almost identical of that of The New One's when he won the International Hurdle.so obviusly he's a quick horse or perhaps just runing in races that return quick times automatically? damned if I know

I can work out that if based on time and it really meant anything he'd leave Peace and Co for dead and he'd be 6/4 and Peace and Co 10/1.......on your rating 156+ Peace and Co 155 again Hargam come out ahead.

The only problem is Peace and Co took out Starchitect giving him weight by 20 lengths that could have been a distance if Daryl Jacob had let him go whereas Hargam at levels beat him an easy 6 lengths.

Something somewhere does not compute:p156+ seems terribly high to me or Peace and Co 's is way too low.......most likely it's the latter who should be running in the Champion Hurdle instead of having another exercise canter round in the Triumph :lol:
 
You got me curious so I though I'd look back at some previous results on good going at the track. The one I found back in November all the times were about 3 secs slower (there's good going and good going) but there was a similarity in that the Juvi hurdle and the handicap hurdle were run in much the same time. The winner of the Handicap carried the same weight as Retrieve but the Juvi carried 10lb less than Hargam.

El Beau the juvi in question is rated 127 so surely you'd expect that Hargam having gone through the race without any sort of pressure applied off decent pace would return a decent time?

If Smart Ruler's race was truly run..something i'm going to have a look at today..then El Beau' rating would be

smart ruler 125 horse carried 10-4 - time 5.6 slow
el beau carried 10-12 - time 6.7 slow

on time - el beau ran 5.5 lengths slower = 125 - 6 = 119
El Beau carried 8lb more = 119+8 = 127

wfa = 16lb = 127+16 = 143
*wfa halved [see below] = 135

Thats IF Smart Ruler is a true representation of that level of horse. There isn't a 3rd 2m race on the card like there is with Hargam to cross check

*I'll just add that I'm not a big fan of adding WFA to its full level when making time figures that should reflect the OHR..I've pointed this out in the past on numerous occasions...on the flat the actual time difference between different aged horses doesn't reflect the official scale...so in this calculation and Harcams its possible that adding the full wedge of it is too much...i'd estimate adding half the wfa scale to keep it realistic in a time calculation..if doing that then you can knock 5lb off Harcam too..and 8 off El Beau's..which i've done above..so Harcam would 151+. Thats still enough to be a serious TH horse...plus he had more to give. Timeform also don't add the full official wfa scale to time figures either..they have their own scale.


No doubt it was a decent time but was it exceptional for a Class 1 hurdler? He also clocked a good time at Cheltenham which was almost identical of that of The New One's when he won the International Hurdle.so obviusly he's a quick horse or perhaps just runing in races that return quick times automatically? damned if I know

The New One's race wasn't a true test..so that can't be a fair comparison.

I can work out that if based on time and it really meant anything he'd leave Peace and Co for dead and he'd be 6/4 and Peace and Co 10/1.......on your rating 156+ Peace and Co 155 again Hargam come out ahead.

Thats not necessarily so unless you have Peace & Co in a similar compariosn to a truly run older handicap on the same day.

The only problem is Peace and Co took out Starchitect giving him weight by 20 lengths that could have been a distance if Daryl Jacob had let him go whereas Hargam at levels beat him an easy 6 lengths.

I think if you look at Starchitects form..he is better on a sounder surface than in slow..comparing the distance he was beaten last time with yesterday is less scientific than comparing times on the same day imo..if Starchitect hasn't appreciated slow ground then his form could be completely different on the two surfaces. He does seem to prefer the sounder surface.

Something somewhere does not compute:p156+ seems terribly high to me or Peace and Co 's is way too low.......most likely it's the latter who should be running in the Champion Hurdle instead of having another exercise canter round in the Triumph :lol:

I agree 156 looks very high..and the WFA is one reason for that which i've addressed above...if you add the full wfa scale to 2yo on the flat in a time figure it always over rates the 2yo..hence in these comparisons i'm using half the wfa scale to keep in line with OHR in a more realistic way.
 
Sunday's Leopardstown race should be informative. There have been persistent rumours that Elliott rates Vercingetorix (another Munir/Souede horse) quite highly and Ricci's top 2 are entered.

It's also interesting to have a decent horse linking several of the form-lines in the way that Karezak does this time.

I've updated last year's RP Key Trends for the Triumph to include Tiger Roll:
- last run between 19 and 55 days ago 11/11
- won at least 50% of hurdle races 10/11
- by Group 1 winning sire 9/11
- pre-race RPR of at least 145 9/11 (the last 9)
- won last time out 8/11
- ran two or three times over hurdles 8/11

They also make the point that, at that time, 8 of the 9 winners since the introduction of the Fred Winter had been in the first 4 in the betting. Tiger Roll was joint 6th in the betting but the favourite, Calipto, was as long as 11/2 so it looked an open race.
 
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