Bachelors Hall
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- Joined
- Apr 24, 2012
- Messages
- 763
The juvenile hurdlers are back on Tuesday and after an absence of a couple of years (several if you discount the ones aborted early on), so too is this thread. A spell on the injury list along with a disinclination to work during lockdown meant that I had plenty of time to compile a fairly comprehensive spreadsheet of every juvenile hurdler to have ran since the 2012/13 season. Although I would like to believe that I didn't completely waste my time and am happy with my body fat percentage being in the low teens rather than single digits, there is a danger that the research is completely misleading and ultimately useless. For example, my research suggests that Kalanisi is a hopeless sire of juvenile hurdlers given that not one of his ten representatives have either picked up a juvenile hurdle or achieved an RPR greater than 107 during this period. Facts on the other hand will show that Kalanisi is now a prominent national hunt sire on the basis of his success as a sire of juveniles - in particular Katchit, Barizan and Alaivan. Furthermore, when looking for unheralded sleeping NH stallions whose progeny improve for the switch to jumps, I discovered that the most promising prospects are predominantly dead, standing abroad or are prohibitively expensive due to their ability to sire two year-olds.
Nevertheless, in the realm of juvenile hurdling where publicly available information is decidedly threadbare, imperfect evidence is better than none whatsoever. Particularly as the genetic attributes necessary for success in juvenile hurdling tend to be specific as there is a demand for both strength and precocity.
While an exhaustive publication of all of the findings might well be in the spirit of a comprehensive research thread, the utility of same is difficult to justify given the bulk and diversity of the information. As such, it would be more appropriate to apply the findings on a race by race basis. Nevertheless, in the meantime here are a few top-tens for the purposes of fun. Not all of the horses listed will have juvenile runners this season.
Top Ten Sires of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by individual winners
Mastercraftsman (21)
Authorized (20)
Cape Cross (13)
Teofilo (13)
Jeremy (13)
Champs Elysees (13)
Pour Moi (11)
Sir Percy (11)
Galileo (10)
Soldier Of Fortune (9)
Top Ten Sires of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of winners to runners (10 or more runners)
Soldier Of Fortune (64)
Maxios (55)
Nathaniel (47)
Pour Moi (46)
Dansili (44)
Motivator (43)
Kapgarde (43)
Sea The Stars (42)
Most Improved (42)
Sinndar (41)
Top Ten Sires of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of horses who recorded an RPR 35lbs greater than the lower of either their last recorded OR on the flat or highest recorded RPR prior to their hurdles debut (10 or more qualifiers)
Authorized (80)
Pour Moi (80)
Aussie Rules (73)
Haafhd (71)
Footstepsinthesand (67)
Canford Cliffs (65)
Fast Company (65)
Sinndar (64)
Montjeu (64)
Casamento (62)
Top Ten Trainers of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by individual winners
Alan King (51)
Gordon Elliott (49)
Paul Nicholls (44)
W P Mullins (38)
Nicky Henderson (34)
Gary Moore (27)
Dan Skelton (25)
Brian Ellison (19)
David Pipe (18)
John Ferguson (17)
Top Ten Trainers of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of winners to runners (10 or more runners)
Nicky Henderson (68)
Stuart Edmunds (64)
W P Mullins (56)
Alan King (53)
Paul Nicholls (50)
John Ferguson (50)
Dr Richard Newland (50)
Neil King (43)
John Quinn (42)
Harry Whittington (42)
Top Ten Trainers of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of horses who recorded an RPR 35lbs greater than the lower of either their last recorded OR on the flat or highest recorded RPR prior to their hurdles debut (10 or more qualifiers)
Gavin Cromwell (81)
W P Mullins (80)
Sheena West (73)
Mrs John Harrington (73)
Noel Meade (71)
Neil King (71)
Philip Kirby (69)
Neil Mulholland (67)
Harry Whittington (67)
Mick Channon (64)
Top Ten thoroughbred families of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by individual winners
14-c (26)
13-c (24)
5-h (23)
9-e (21)
21-a (21)
1-w (20)
9-c (20)
8-f (19)
1-k (19)
2-f (18)
Top ten damsires of juvenile hurdlers who achieved RPRs of 108 or greater by percentage (10 or more runners)
Mansonnien (70)
Turgeon (50)
Lear Fan (50)
Poliglote (46)
Highest Honor (45)
Diesis (44)
Anabaa (43)
Alzao (43)
King's Theatre (42)
Linamix (40)
The RPR figure of 108 was chosen as it would put its achievers in the 75th percentile. I could continue with these top tens ad nauseum but the season will be over before I get through them all. That said, if there are any specific requests using the aforementioned parameters then I will try to accommodate them. I also have stats for the 1268 horses who were sold at public auction as horses-in-training prior to being sent over hurdles. The most interesting findings were that based on extrapolations using mean figures, £119,860 will get you a 108.56 rated juvenile, £49,459 will get you a 97.9 rated juvenile and £3,014 will get you a 54.2 rated plodder. Also, there's a 99.95% chance that you will not recover the sales price through prize money.
So yeah, hopefully this thread will be fun, informative and enduring. I will try to keep it going with race news, previews and musings where applicable and freely welcome any and all contributions and feedback.
Nevertheless, in the realm of juvenile hurdling where publicly available information is decidedly threadbare, imperfect evidence is better than none whatsoever. Particularly as the genetic attributes necessary for success in juvenile hurdling tend to be specific as there is a demand for both strength and precocity.
While an exhaustive publication of all of the findings might well be in the spirit of a comprehensive research thread, the utility of same is difficult to justify given the bulk and diversity of the information. As such, it would be more appropriate to apply the findings on a race by race basis. Nevertheless, in the meantime here are a few top-tens for the purposes of fun. Not all of the horses listed will have juvenile runners this season.
Top Ten Sires of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by individual winners
Mastercraftsman (21)
Authorized (20)
Cape Cross (13)
Teofilo (13)
Jeremy (13)
Champs Elysees (13)
Pour Moi (11)
Sir Percy (11)
Galileo (10)
Soldier Of Fortune (9)
Top Ten Sires of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of winners to runners (10 or more runners)
Soldier Of Fortune (64)
Maxios (55)
Nathaniel (47)
Pour Moi (46)
Dansili (44)
Motivator (43)
Kapgarde (43)
Sea The Stars (42)
Most Improved (42)
Sinndar (41)
Top Ten Sires of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of horses who recorded an RPR 35lbs greater than the lower of either their last recorded OR on the flat or highest recorded RPR prior to their hurdles debut (10 or more qualifiers)
Authorized (80)
Pour Moi (80)
Aussie Rules (73)
Haafhd (71)
Footstepsinthesand (67)
Canford Cliffs (65)
Fast Company (65)
Sinndar (64)
Montjeu (64)
Casamento (62)
Top Ten Trainers of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by individual winners
Alan King (51)
Gordon Elliott (49)
Paul Nicholls (44)
W P Mullins (38)
Nicky Henderson (34)
Gary Moore (27)
Dan Skelton (25)
Brian Ellison (19)
David Pipe (18)
John Ferguson (17)
Top Ten Trainers of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of winners to runners (10 or more runners)
Nicky Henderson (68)
Stuart Edmunds (64)
W P Mullins (56)
Alan King (53)
Paul Nicholls (50)
John Ferguson (50)
Dr Richard Newland (50)
Neil King (43)
John Quinn (42)
Harry Whittington (42)
Top Ten Trainers of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by percentage of horses who recorded an RPR 35lbs greater than the lower of either their last recorded OR on the flat or highest recorded RPR prior to their hurdles debut (10 or more qualifiers)
Gavin Cromwell (81)
W P Mullins (80)
Sheena West (73)
Mrs John Harrington (73)
Noel Meade (71)
Neil King (71)
Philip Kirby (69)
Neil Mulholland (67)
Harry Whittington (67)
Mick Channon (64)
Top Ten thoroughbred families of Juvenile Hurdlers since 2012/13 by individual winners
14-c (26)
13-c (24)
5-h (23)
9-e (21)
21-a (21)
1-w (20)
9-c (20)
8-f (19)
1-k (19)
2-f (18)
Top ten damsires of juvenile hurdlers who achieved RPRs of 108 or greater by percentage (10 or more runners)
Mansonnien (70)
Turgeon (50)
Lear Fan (50)
Poliglote (46)
Highest Honor (45)
Diesis (44)
Anabaa (43)
Alzao (43)
King's Theatre (42)
Linamix (40)
The RPR figure of 108 was chosen as it would put its achievers in the 75th percentile. I could continue with these top tens ad nauseum but the season will be over before I get through them all. That said, if there are any specific requests using the aforementioned parameters then I will try to accommodate them. I also have stats for the 1268 horses who were sold at public auction as horses-in-training prior to being sent over hurdles. The most interesting findings were that based on extrapolations using mean figures, £119,860 will get you a 108.56 rated juvenile, £49,459 will get you a 97.9 rated juvenile and £3,014 will get you a 54.2 rated plodder. Also, there's a 99.95% chance that you will not recover the sales price through prize money.
So yeah, hopefully this thread will be fun, informative and enduring. I will try to keep it going with race news, previews and musings where applicable and freely welcome any and all contributions and feedback.