Juvenile Hurdlers 2022/23
- Thread starter Bachelors Hall
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Bachelors Hall
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You would think so... Although there won't be as many juveniles as bad as that one...
Tomorrow's race probably won't be competitive, but it does feature the return of the Queen of the Summer...
STRATFORD - 22nd August - Preview
Stratford’s juvenile hurdles, the majority of which take place during the summer, are generally less competitive than the standard contest in the division with the average winner’s seasonal RPR of 113.13 being a near half-stone below par. Nevertheless, good juveniles have trod The Bard’s boards and this particular race is generally one of the better at the venue. Held every year between 2007 and 2015, before being resurrected for a two-division renewal last season, it has been taken by the likes of Wensleydale winner and Triumph fifth Leoncavallo in 2015, Prestbury winner and Finesse placed Simarian in 2008, while Architrave (winner in 2010) and Addosh (last year’s runner-up) would each land that decent juvenile contest at Market Rasen’s prelude meeting. This year’s renewal has attracted two previous course and distance winners and a Nigel Twiston-Davies newcomer; although one of those winners could make this contest look very uncompetitive. Though a sharp, left-handed circuit, dosage index figures from Stratford’s juvenile hurdles indicate that stamina is a useful asset at the venue as the mean winning DI of 1.20 is lower only at Cheltenham, Hexham and Chepstow. Jumping can be trickier than usual as the clear round rate of 95.36% is towards the lower quarter of British and Irish racecourses, and that figure drops to 93.47% for hurdling debutants. Experience is also valuable around Stratford as newcomers have an impact value of 0.58 since 2004/05. None of the five runner field are confirmed front-runners and the going was last reported to be Good, Good to Firm in places. The ground will be watered as necessary, although there is also a chance of light rain before racing.
Mutara bg Sean Curran f8-0-3 (55) 62 j2-1-0 (-) 87 96
Muhaarar (Lucky Story){3-c}(0.78) 3/2 Ramonex 136 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (120), Catterick 2018
Making his debut at Kempton in February, Mutara finished no better than midfield on his first three outings. However, in five flat outings since his switch to handicaps in early April, he has yet to finish outside of the first four. It should be noted that these performances came off mark decreasing from 55 and that the winners’ enclosure has thus far eluded him; but by the same token, he has been a consistent animal. He was doing his best work towards the finish when third over eleven furlongs at Windsor in early May and returning to the turf after a Wolverhampton fourth, would twice find only one too good. At Leicester, he was no match for a horse who recently completed a four-timer, and at Chepstow last month, was bested by another subsequent winner. Mutara did little wrong on either occasion and has little to answer for in terms of attitude. Prior to this campaign, Muhaarar had one winner from seven juveniles and the jumpers that appear on the damline prior to Ramonex at 3/2 have been poor. Sean Curran had winners in the division; albeit at a winner to runner rate of 9.09%. None had scored first time out, which afforded lowered expectations for Mutara on his hurdling debut at this track on the tenth of July. Starting at 15/2, having been as short as 9/2 om the ring, Mutara was keen early on, and his being badly balked at the first put paid to his confidence as he was big and ungainly over the remaining obstacles. Never out of the rear, or threatening to get involved in the contest, Mutara was eased on the run-in; finishing over fourteen lengths behind Mucuna. There was ample scope for Mutara to leave that debut performance well behind, and eighteen days later back at Stratford, he found an opportunity which was enhanced by the market leaders disappointing. Donning first time cheekpieces, Mutara’s leap at the first was big, slow and untidy, but though not a model of fluency, his subsequent untidiness was relatively minor and not to the detriment to his performance. He settled quite well and tracked the leader before taking the lead at the hill on the second circuit. While he was being driven all along the final bend, he did not concede the lead and though steep at the last, he got away from the flight quickly enough and forged ahead on the run in to win by a length and a quarter. The form has since been advertised by the second and fourth filling the first two places at Fontwell last week, although it should be noted that it was a poor contest where none of the principles jumped well. Nevertheless, it was an improvement on his debut effort in terms of fluency and there was little to fault in his attitude. Mutara can continue to progress, but he is meeting Mucuna on a pound worse terms than their first encounter and the former will need the latter to underperform placings are to be reversed.
Mucuna bf Milton Harris f8-1-0 (49) 55 j5-4-1 (120) 93 111
Guiliani (Gold Away){14-b}(0.89) 2/1 Capellini 98 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (93), Plumpton 2013
Prior to his forced sabbatical, Milton Harris was no slouch when it came to juvenile hurdlers; saddling Modul to win the Grade 2 Summit and Finesse Hurdles in 2003/04 and subsequently guiding Gulf Punch (rated 45 and claimed for £5000), Pseudonym (also claimed for £5000), Rosie’s Glory (rated 60) and Moonfleet (rated 57) to the winners’ enclosure. Nevertheless, since his glorious return to the shores of Hoofiana, Harris has proven himself in no uncertain terms with an excellent winner to runner record of ten from twenty capped by last season’s hugely admirable Knight Salute. He started the current season as he ended the last by winning a juvenile hurdle at Aintree with the 49 rated Mucuna. During her first five outings, commencing last October, her best effort was a midfield finish in a mile Handicap at Kempton off 46. However, the switch to turf and a step up to ten furlongs saw her get off the mark at Salisbury back in April. She was unable to follow up in a couple of Bath handicaps off 50 during May, finishing fourth on both occasions, but it was apparent that the track did not see her to best effect. The switch to hurdling came at Aintree in the second juvenile of the season and while she was backed from 20/1 into 4/1 second favourite, this was not a clandestine move as there was plenty of evidence for a good showing in a weak race. Although her rating is a low one, Milton Harris, since his return, has trained Romeo’s Bond (55) to win, and Global Agreement (56) to place first time. Mucuna’s pedigree was also feasibly conducive as Guiliani (another first-season sire) is a nephew of Getaway and the damline contains winners Capellini (2/1), listed class handicapper Beringneyev (3/1), Mahogany Blaze (4/3) and Petit Mouchoir (5/5). Held up last of four, in a race ran at a galop comparable to the handicap on the card, Mucuna was novicey over the first three flights as she was steady and awkward over one and two and jumped left while leaving her hind legs in the third. Nevertheless, she was more fluent thereafter and though behind her two remaining rivals when turning for home, was close up and ultimately the last to come off the bridle. Despite being squeezed out at the final flight, she took the lead in a matter of strides and with the rail to help, ran out a decisive and enthusiastic three-length winner. All told, she did not have to improve on her flat form to land the spoils, but her willingness and proven hurdling ability did not go unnoticed. Mucuna returned to the track a week later at Market Rasen and, though very well supported ahead of her Aintree bow, the Market Rasen market was rather lukewarm on her chances as she drifted from a morning 6/4 to 11/4 at the off. Finding herself unsuited by how the race unfolded, and showing a tendency to jump across her hurdles, she ultimately disappointed with her four-and-a-half-length second. Mucuna returned to winning ways next time at Newton Abbot and while the habit of jumping across her hurdles was actually more pronounce, she often went markedly to her left which may indicate that she simply likes jumping toward the inner. The Newton Abbot contest was essentially a match between herself and Free Chakarte. Though the longer priced of the pair during the day’s exchanges, they were almost level at the off with Mucuna going off a fraction longer at 6/5. Still racing keenly on her third jumps outing in as many weeks, she was soon tracking the leader having initially raced third of four. Her hurdling was not wholly fluent as along with going to her left, she skewed at the first, was untidy at the second, tight at the fifth, big at the sixth and slow away from the last two. Despite these errors however, she was travelling best once the race was between the two principals within the microcosm of a Newton Abbot battle, Mucuna’s stamina edge (and possibly her rider’s allowance) told over her rival’s speed. Given how the race developed, it is to her credit that she was able to earn the victory and while it probably amounts to little, the race was the strongest in the division this term from a time perspective – at least up to the point of her Stratford outing on the tenth of July. Under a double penalty, she drifted from a morning 7/4 to start 5/2 favourite, but the price underestimated her prospects. Racing fairly keenly just behind the leaders, she was quite badly baulked at the first and third, but while fairly tight at the fifth and sixth, she lost very little momentum in the air. Mucuna was momentarily outpaced on the turn for home, but found a turn of foot which took her to the front approaching the last and although it could have been jumped cleaner, she was ridden out to ensure a decisive six-length victory. It was not the strongest summer juvenile of all time, but the form could hardly have worked out better in the context of this season with the second, third and fifth all winning next time out. Mucuna was last seen at Newton Abbot five weeks ago where she posted her most impressive effort to date. Though reopposing Free Chakarte on worse terms than their previous narrow encounter, and meeting what would have been an easy course and distance winner but for a late fall, Mucuna was backed from a morning 9/4 to start the 11/8 clear favourite. Racing enthusiastically behind her two market rivals, she went to her left at the second but was otherwise sound. Turning for home, as her rivals were hard at work, Mucuna was firmly on the bridle and she turned into the straight with a healthy advantage. While she dived at the penultimate hurdle and gave the last plenty of respect, her lead extended to twenty-two lengths at the line without any prompt from Bradley Harris. The runner-up ran below par next time, but based on her previous form, the ease with which she was beaten and the race’s sectionals, it would not be controversial to describe Mucuna’s performance as the best seen in the division to date. Unless there is a tactical catastrophe or any of her rivals improve significantly on their previous form, defeat for Mucuna should be able to put her superiority to good use in a contest where everything ought to suit.
Flintstone chg Nigel Twiston-Davies f9-0-5 (63) 71
Starspangledbanner (First Samurai){19-e}(1.00) No jumps relatives
A nine race maiden on the flat, Flintstone is set to be the first juvenile of the campaign for Nigel Twiston-Davies. The master of Grange Hill Farm does have a solid record in the division. He has handled the likes of Bristol de Mai, Torpillo and Mahogany Blaze, and his winner-to-runner rate of 31.82% is the strongest in the field. Twiston-Davies also fares well with his flat recruits, six of his twenty-seven won as juveniles, although only one managed to score first time. Ten seasons ago, the yard had a similar type in Golden Jubilee; Hannon trained mid-sixties performer with an American damline completely bereft of jumpers, carrying the same colours. Golden Jubilee got no further than the first in a Bangor juvenile before finishing well beaten at Warwick – although after a prolonged return to the flat, he did eventually manage to win a Sedgefield handicap off 92. The similarities diverge when it comes to their sires as while Golden Jubilee was Zavata’s one and only juvenile, Starspangledbanner has had eight to date with two finding the winners’ enclosure. Though Flintstone has not managed to win as of yet, he has generally been a fair and consistent sort. His two-year-old career, starting in May, consisted of three runs in as many months; all of which came at Newbury, none of which saw him get closer than twelve lengths to the winner. Following a break of nearly nine months, he returned in a mile handicap at Kempton where he finished a two length second off 64, looking one paced in the closing stages. Over the same trip at Chelmsford, he had to be rousted along for much of the contest before keeping on for a seven length third. The step up to ten furlongs only saw him finish sixth at Goodwood, but the form has worked out quite well for the level. Afterwards, he was given a gelding operation and a two month break and while he could only manage an eight length third at Leicester, the application of blinkers saw him turn in a career best performance at Kempton in early July. Racing over a mile off a mark of 62, he turned for home with all of the field to pass, but was vying for the lead inside the final hundred yards before going down by half a length. The form was boosted by the winner following up in two of his next three starts, but Flintstone did give the impression that he was not entirely committed to the battle. Eight days later, he returned to ten furlongs, racing off the same mark, for a Chepstow handicap in which he was the second favourite of four. Disputing the lead, he appeared to be travelling best in front at the distance but was unable to fend off a couple of rivals and would merely plug on for two and a quarter length third. The runner-up went one better next time, and there was slightly less of a quibble about Flintstone’s resolve. However, on account of his Kempton run, he is now on a BHA mark of 63 which is not obviously generous. Flintstone’s credentials are not without positives as his flat form is the strongest in the line-up, his sire has done respectably with his small legion in the sphere, and while the yard’s first-time record with flat recruits could be better, Twiston-Davies is four from nine with summer juveniles (although three of those wins belong to Goodbye Dancer in 2014). However, despite his fast finish at Kempton, that was in a strongly run contest so stamina is not assured at this point. Moreover, while he has been more or less consistent on the flat, his lesser efforts came on good-to-firm. Flintstone is not a hopeless recruit to the sphere, but there are enough caveats to prevent him from being a serious threat to an in-form Mucuna at the first time of asking.
Ickytoo bf Jonathan Portman f6-0-0 (45) 48
Heeraat (Mark Of Esteem){1-g}(0.33) 0.5 Size Matters 78 4th 2m½f Novices’ Hurdle, Market Rasen 2019
Over the course of three outings either side of Christmas, Ickytoo has only once finished within twelve lengths of the winner. This instance came on her handicap debut two runs ago at Lingfield over a mile. Starting at 22/1 and racing off 46, Ickytoo was held up in the rear before making headway down the hill. Racing widest of all cost her a few places, but she managed to pass three beaten horses inside the final furlong to finish a four-length fifth of ten. However, she was unable to build on this promise over an additional two furlongs last week at Chelmsford, seldom threatening to get any closer than midfield. Switched to hurdling, she represents a yard with a 3.53% strike rate in the sphere and while Jonathan Portman saddled Minder to twice finish second at Stratford in the summer of 2009, he is winless from ten at the venue. Heeraat recently had his first winning juvenile in Rolypolymoly, and Mark Of Esteem has a 25.58% winner-to-runner rate as a damsire. However, Heeraat’s other five juveniles have failed to make the frame, and until reaching Master Finch and Ewar Chieftain (both 5/3), Ickytoo’s relatives on the damline have fared poorly over hurdles.
Intriguing Lady bf Nigel Hawke f12-0-3 (50) 66 j3-0-2 (81) 61 69
Fascinating Rock (Invincible Spirit){9-e}(1.13) 2/1 Arthurian 87 1st 2m½f Juvenile Selling Hurdle, Stratford 2008
With twelve flat outings and three jumps starts to her name, Intriguing Lady is the most experienced runner set to face the starter. She was formerly trained by Mark Johnston who, since 2005, has been the most prolific supplier of juvenile hurdles with 212 former inmates of Kingsley House taking up the vocation. For context, Mick Channon is next on the list with just three others reaching triple digits. Of those 212, fifty were winners, giving a healthy rate of 23.58%, although less than a third would improve on what they had shown for Johnston. The latter factor would be a matter of concern for Intriguing Lady whose early promise was fleeting and has been supplanted by disappointment. Her debut came at Ayr last August where, sporting a hood, she finished second of four behind a fair and experienced rival and ahead of a pair that have subsequently achieved little. Running green and down the field on her next two starts, she posted her career best on her handicap debut in a seven-furlong Newcastle nursery in October off 65. She was arguably unlucky when sixth in a Chelmsford claimer on her seventh and final start as a two-year-old, but on her first four starts of 2022, finished last in a handicap, last in a claimer, third in a seller won by a 54 rated animal, then eighth of nine in a Southwell handicap. Intriguing Lady was last seen finishing midfield in a Wolverhampton handicap where, sporting her fourth form of headgear, refused to settle before weakening late on. After this final outing, Intriguing Lady went to the Tattersalls Ascot March Sale where she commanded just £2,000. Such an appraisal is not inherently damning to a young hurdler’s prospects, however, as five of the thirty-four juveniles to have left Mark Johnston’s at public auction for less than £5,000 would be winners. Her new handler, Nigel Hawke, has a respectable record in the sphere with a 19.70% winner to runner rate that increases to 25.71% with flat sourced horses. The lion’s share of this success come from those from Jim Bolger’s with seven of the ten such horses winning. Indeed, the winner-to-runner rate for those not trained by Jim Bolger drops to 8%. Fascinating Rock’s record is below average by general standards with his sole winner from eight being the Joseph O’Brien trained Faron, and his clear round rate of 81.82% being low by any measure. Intriguing Lady’s uncle did win a juvenile hurdle, albeit a weak Stratford seller, and apart from minor winner Manjaam at 3/2, jumping prowess on the damline is negligible before reaching Mengli Khan at 4/2. Drifting from 9/1 to 14/1 at Hexham, all concerns manifested in the contest itself as she raced keenly, made errors at most flights before weakening tamely on leaving the back and finishing well beaten. Next time at Newton Abbot, Intriguing Lady was sent off the 20/1 outsider of the field but there was improvement from her Hexham showing. Held up in the rear, she settled much better and her jumping also saw significant improvement with her skewing over the second being the only error of note. Nevertheless, she was still treading water on the turn for home and but for her remaining rivals pulling themselves up after the penultimate flight mele, she may have finished last. In fairness, she was carried widest of all by the loose horse and though she had no chance with the winner and less chance with the would-be winner, she began to look one that could work with a reasonable mark. This fanciful notion was rather dampened on her return to Newton Abbot on the first of July as her 10/1 odds were made to look miniscule by Mucuna to the tune of fifty-three lengths. Never leaving the rear, her jumping was a mixed bag before a tired and untidy jump three out put an end to her futile pursuit of the leaders; although she did win the battle for third by a length. Intriguing Lady was subsequently given a mark of 81 which might be helpful in the long-run, but would be of no use to her here.
tl;dr
Mutara – Honest maiden on the flat at a modest level and hurdles debut was forgivable due to early interference. Returned to Stratford with a victory and though form is nothing special, a winner has come out of the race. Likeable sort and entitled to further improvement but has a lot to find with Mucuna.
Mucuna – Won a low grade handicap but has been a revelation over hurdles. Has won four from five during the summer and is comfortably the best seen in the division to date. Holds very strong chance on paper and can only be undone by extreme tactics, massive underperformance or unexpected improvement from rivals.
Flintstone – Maiden on flat but strongest form from that sphere. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ first juvenile of the season. Yard does well overall but flat recruits improve with experience. Potentials on breeding but may prefer softer ground and faces stiff task first time.
Ickytoo – One run from six on the flat was not abysmal but still way short of what is required here. Sire and trainer are capable of getting winners but not habitually so and damline offers little encouragement.
Intriguing Lady – Snippets of form for Mark Johnston but sold cheaply to trainer who does better with different type. Modicum of promise over hurdles but nowhere near enough to suggest she can make an impact here.
Outstanding prospects
1. Mucuna
Reasonable prospects
.
Feasible prospects
2. Mutara
3. Flintstone
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
4. Intriguing Lady
5. Ickytoo
Tomorrow's race probably won't be competitive, but it does feature the return of the Queen of the Summer...
STRATFORD - 22nd August - Preview
Stratford’s juvenile hurdles, the majority of which take place during the summer, are generally less competitive than the standard contest in the division with the average winner’s seasonal RPR of 113.13 being a near half-stone below par. Nevertheless, good juveniles have trod The Bard’s boards and this particular race is generally one of the better at the venue. Held every year between 2007 and 2015, before being resurrected for a two-division renewal last season, it has been taken by the likes of Wensleydale winner and Triumph fifth Leoncavallo in 2015, Prestbury winner and Finesse placed Simarian in 2008, while Architrave (winner in 2010) and Addosh (last year’s runner-up) would each land that decent juvenile contest at Market Rasen’s prelude meeting. This year’s renewal has attracted two previous course and distance winners and a Nigel Twiston-Davies newcomer; although one of those winners could make this contest look very uncompetitive. Though a sharp, left-handed circuit, dosage index figures from Stratford’s juvenile hurdles indicate that stamina is a useful asset at the venue as the mean winning DI of 1.20 is lower only at Cheltenham, Hexham and Chepstow. Jumping can be trickier than usual as the clear round rate of 95.36% is towards the lower quarter of British and Irish racecourses, and that figure drops to 93.47% for hurdling debutants. Experience is also valuable around Stratford as newcomers have an impact value of 0.58 since 2004/05. None of the five runner field are confirmed front-runners and the going was last reported to be Good, Good to Firm in places. The ground will be watered as necessary, although there is also a chance of light rain before racing.
Mutara bg Sean Curran f8-0-3 (55) 62 j2-1-0 (-) 87 96
Muhaarar (Lucky Story){3-c}(0.78) 3/2 Ramonex 136 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (120), Catterick 2018
Making his debut at Kempton in February, Mutara finished no better than midfield on his first three outings. However, in five flat outings since his switch to handicaps in early April, he has yet to finish outside of the first four. It should be noted that these performances came off mark decreasing from 55 and that the winners’ enclosure has thus far eluded him; but by the same token, he has been a consistent animal. He was doing his best work towards the finish when third over eleven furlongs at Windsor in early May and returning to the turf after a Wolverhampton fourth, would twice find only one too good. At Leicester, he was no match for a horse who recently completed a four-timer, and at Chepstow last month, was bested by another subsequent winner. Mutara did little wrong on either occasion and has little to answer for in terms of attitude. Prior to this campaign, Muhaarar had one winner from seven juveniles and the jumpers that appear on the damline prior to Ramonex at 3/2 have been poor. Sean Curran had winners in the division; albeit at a winner to runner rate of 9.09%. None had scored first time out, which afforded lowered expectations for Mutara on his hurdling debut at this track on the tenth of July. Starting at 15/2, having been as short as 9/2 om the ring, Mutara was keen early on, and his being badly balked at the first put paid to his confidence as he was big and ungainly over the remaining obstacles. Never out of the rear, or threatening to get involved in the contest, Mutara was eased on the run-in; finishing over fourteen lengths behind Mucuna. There was ample scope for Mutara to leave that debut performance well behind, and eighteen days later back at Stratford, he found an opportunity which was enhanced by the market leaders disappointing. Donning first time cheekpieces, Mutara’s leap at the first was big, slow and untidy, but though not a model of fluency, his subsequent untidiness was relatively minor and not to the detriment to his performance. He settled quite well and tracked the leader before taking the lead at the hill on the second circuit. While he was being driven all along the final bend, he did not concede the lead and though steep at the last, he got away from the flight quickly enough and forged ahead on the run in to win by a length and a quarter. The form has since been advertised by the second and fourth filling the first two places at Fontwell last week, although it should be noted that it was a poor contest where none of the principles jumped well. Nevertheless, it was an improvement on his debut effort in terms of fluency and there was little to fault in his attitude. Mutara can continue to progress, but he is meeting Mucuna on a pound worse terms than their first encounter and the former will need the latter to underperform placings are to be reversed.
Mucuna bf Milton Harris f8-1-0 (49) 55 j5-4-1 (120) 93 111
Guiliani (Gold Away){14-b}(0.89) 2/1 Capellini 98 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (93), Plumpton 2013
Prior to his forced sabbatical, Milton Harris was no slouch when it came to juvenile hurdlers; saddling Modul to win the Grade 2 Summit and Finesse Hurdles in 2003/04 and subsequently guiding Gulf Punch (rated 45 and claimed for £5000), Pseudonym (also claimed for £5000), Rosie’s Glory (rated 60) and Moonfleet (rated 57) to the winners’ enclosure. Nevertheless, since his glorious return to the shores of Hoofiana, Harris has proven himself in no uncertain terms with an excellent winner to runner record of ten from twenty capped by last season’s hugely admirable Knight Salute. He started the current season as he ended the last by winning a juvenile hurdle at Aintree with the 49 rated Mucuna. During her first five outings, commencing last October, her best effort was a midfield finish in a mile Handicap at Kempton off 46. However, the switch to turf and a step up to ten furlongs saw her get off the mark at Salisbury back in April. She was unable to follow up in a couple of Bath handicaps off 50 during May, finishing fourth on both occasions, but it was apparent that the track did not see her to best effect. The switch to hurdling came at Aintree in the second juvenile of the season and while she was backed from 20/1 into 4/1 second favourite, this was not a clandestine move as there was plenty of evidence for a good showing in a weak race. Although her rating is a low one, Milton Harris, since his return, has trained Romeo’s Bond (55) to win, and Global Agreement (56) to place first time. Mucuna’s pedigree was also feasibly conducive as Guiliani (another first-season sire) is a nephew of Getaway and the damline contains winners Capellini (2/1), listed class handicapper Beringneyev (3/1), Mahogany Blaze (4/3) and Petit Mouchoir (5/5). Held up last of four, in a race ran at a galop comparable to the handicap on the card, Mucuna was novicey over the first three flights as she was steady and awkward over one and two and jumped left while leaving her hind legs in the third. Nevertheless, she was more fluent thereafter and though behind her two remaining rivals when turning for home, was close up and ultimately the last to come off the bridle. Despite being squeezed out at the final flight, she took the lead in a matter of strides and with the rail to help, ran out a decisive and enthusiastic three-length winner. All told, she did not have to improve on her flat form to land the spoils, but her willingness and proven hurdling ability did not go unnoticed. Mucuna returned to the track a week later at Market Rasen and, though very well supported ahead of her Aintree bow, the Market Rasen market was rather lukewarm on her chances as she drifted from a morning 6/4 to 11/4 at the off. Finding herself unsuited by how the race unfolded, and showing a tendency to jump across her hurdles, she ultimately disappointed with her four-and-a-half-length second. Mucuna returned to winning ways next time at Newton Abbot and while the habit of jumping across her hurdles was actually more pronounce, she often went markedly to her left which may indicate that she simply likes jumping toward the inner. The Newton Abbot contest was essentially a match between herself and Free Chakarte. Though the longer priced of the pair during the day’s exchanges, they were almost level at the off with Mucuna going off a fraction longer at 6/5. Still racing keenly on her third jumps outing in as many weeks, she was soon tracking the leader having initially raced third of four. Her hurdling was not wholly fluent as along with going to her left, she skewed at the first, was untidy at the second, tight at the fifth, big at the sixth and slow away from the last two. Despite these errors however, she was travelling best once the race was between the two principals within the microcosm of a Newton Abbot battle, Mucuna’s stamina edge (and possibly her rider’s allowance) told over her rival’s speed. Given how the race developed, it is to her credit that she was able to earn the victory and while it probably amounts to little, the race was the strongest in the division this term from a time perspective – at least up to the point of her Stratford outing on the tenth of July. Under a double penalty, she drifted from a morning 7/4 to start 5/2 favourite, but the price underestimated her prospects. Racing fairly keenly just behind the leaders, she was quite badly baulked at the first and third, but while fairly tight at the fifth and sixth, she lost very little momentum in the air. Mucuna was momentarily outpaced on the turn for home, but found a turn of foot which took her to the front approaching the last and although it could have been jumped cleaner, she was ridden out to ensure a decisive six-length victory. It was not the strongest summer juvenile of all time, but the form could hardly have worked out better in the context of this season with the second, third and fifth all winning next time out. Mucuna was last seen at Newton Abbot five weeks ago where she posted her most impressive effort to date. Though reopposing Free Chakarte on worse terms than their previous narrow encounter, and meeting what would have been an easy course and distance winner but for a late fall, Mucuna was backed from a morning 9/4 to start the 11/8 clear favourite. Racing enthusiastically behind her two market rivals, she went to her left at the second but was otherwise sound. Turning for home, as her rivals were hard at work, Mucuna was firmly on the bridle and she turned into the straight with a healthy advantage. While she dived at the penultimate hurdle and gave the last plenty of respect, her lead extended to twenty-two lengths at the line without any prompt from Bradley Harris. The runner-up ran below par next time, but based on her previous form, the ease with which she was beaten and the race’s sectionals, it would not be controversial to describe Mucuna’s performance as the best seen in the division to date. Unless there is a tactical catastrophe or any of her rivals improve significantly on their previous form, defeat for Mucuna should be able to put her superiority to good use in a contest where everything ought to suit.
Flintstone chg Nigel Twiston-Davies f9-0-5 (63) 71
Starspangledbanner (First Samurai){19-e}(1.00) No jumps relatives
A nine race maiden on the flat, Flintstone is set to be the first juvenile of the campaign for Nigel Twiston-Davies. The master of Grange Hill Farm does have a solid record in the division. He has handled the likes of Bristol de Mai, Torpillo and Mahogany Blaze, and his winner-to-runner rate of 31.82% is the strongest in the field. Twiston-Davies also fares well with his flat recruits, six of his twenty-seven won as juveniles, although only one managed to score first time. Ten seasons ago, the yard had a similar type in Golden Jubilee; Hannon trained mid-sixties performer with an American damline completely bereft of jumpers, carrying the same colours. Golden Jubilee got no further than the first in a Bangor juvenile before finishing well beaten at Warwick – although after a prolonged return to the flat, he did eventually manage to win a Sedgefield handicap off 92. The similarities diverge when it comes to their sires as while Golden Jubilee was Zavata’s one and only juvenile, Starspangledbanner has had eight to date with two finding the winners’ enclosure. Though Flintstone has not managed to win as of yet, he has generally been a fair and consistent sort. His two-year-old career, starting in May, consisted of three runs in as many months; all of which came at Newbury, none of which saw him get closer than twelve lengths to the winner. Following a break of nearly nine months, he returned in a mile handicap at Kempton where he finished a two length second off 64, looking one paced in the closing stages. Over the same trip at Chelmsford, he had to be rousted along for much of the contest before keeping on for a seven length third. The step up to ten furlongs only saw him finish sixth at Goodwood, but the form has worked out quite well for the level. Afterwards, he was given a gelding operation and a two month break and while he could only manage an eight length third at Leicester, the application of blinkers saw him turn in a career best performance at Kempton in early July. Racing over a mile off a mark of 62, he turned for home with all of the field to pass, but was vying for the lead inside the final hundred yards before going down by half a length. The form was boosted by the winner following up in two of his next three starts, but Flintstone did give the impression that he was not entirely committed to the battle. Eight days later, he returned to ten furlongs, racing off the same mark, for a Chepstow handicap in which he was the second favourite of four. Disputing the lead, he appeared to be travelling best in front at the distance but was unable to fend off a couple of rivals and would merely plug on for two and a quarter length third. The runner-up went one better next time, and there was slightly less of a quibble about Flintstone’s resolve. However, on account of his Kempton run, he is now on a BHA mark of 63 which is not obviously generous. Flintstone’s credentials are not without positives as his flat form is the strongest in the line-up, his sire has done respectably with his small legion in the sphere, and while the yard’s first-time record with flat recruits could be better, Twiston-Davies is four from nine with summer juveniles (although three of those wins belong to Goodbye Dancer in 2014). However, despite his fast finish at Kempton, that was in a strongly run contest so stamina is not assured at this point. Moreover, while he has been more or less consistent on the flat, his lesser efforts came on good-to-firm. Flintstone is not a hopeless recruit to the sphere, but there are enough caveats to prevent him from being a serious threat to an in-form Mucuna at the first time of asking.
Ickytoo bf Jonathan Portman f6-0-0 (45) 48
Heeraat (Mark Of Esteem){1-g}(0.33) 0.5 Size Matters 78 4th 2m½f Novices’ Hurdle, Market Rasen 2019
Over the course of three outings either side of Christmas, Ickytoo has only once finished within twelve lengths of the winner. This instance came on her handicap debut two runs ago at Lingfield over a mile. Starting at 22/1 and racing off 46, Ickytoo was held up in the rear before making headway down the hill. Racing widest of all cost her a few places, but she managed to pass three beaten horses inside the final furlong to finish a four-length fifth of ten. However, she was unable to build on this promise over an additional two furlongs last week at Chelmsford, seldom threatening to get any closer than midfield. Switched to hurdling, she represents a yard with a 3.53% strike rate in the sphere and while Jonathan Portman saddled Minder to twice finish second at Stratford in the summer of 2009, he is winless from ten at the venue. Heeraat recently had his first winning juvenile in Rolypolymoly, and Mark Of Esteem has a 25.58% winner-to-runner rate as a damsire. However, Heeraat’s other five juveniles have failed to make the frame, and until reaching Master Finch and Ewar Chieftain (both 5/3), Ickytoo’s relatives on the damline have fared poorly over hurdles.
Intriguing Lady bf Nigel Hawke f12-0-3 (50) 66 j3-0-2 (81) 61 69
Fascinating Rock (Invincible Spirit){9-e}(1.13) 2/1 Arthurian 87 1st 2m½f Juvenile Selling Hurdle, Stratford 2008
With twelve flat outings and three jumps starts to her name, Intriguing Lady is the most experienced runner set to face the starter. She was formerly trained by Mark Johnston who, since 2005, has been the most prolific supplier of juvenile hurdles with 212 former inmates of Kingsley House taking up the vocation. For context, Mick Channon is next on the list with just three others reaching triple digits. Of those 212, fifty were winners, giving a healthy rate of 23.58%, although less than a third would improve on what they had shown for Johnston. The latter factor would be a matter of concern for Intriguing Lady whose early promise was fleeting and has been supplanted by disappointment. Her debut came at Ayr last August where, sporting a hood, she finished second of four behind a fair and experienced rival and ahead of a pair that have subsequently achieved little. Running green and down the field on her next two starts, she posted her career best on her handicap debut in a seven-furlong Newcastle nursery in October off 65. She was arguably unlucky when sixth in a Chelmsford claimer on her seventh and final start as a two-year-old, but on her first four starts of 2022, finished last in a handicap, last in a claimer, third in a seller won by a 54 rated animal, then eighth of nine in a Southwell handicap. Intriguing Lady was last seen finishing midfield in a Wolverhampton handicap where, sporting her fourth form of headgear, refused to settle before weakening late on. After this final outing, Intriguing Lady went to the Tattersalls Ascot March Sale where she commanded just £2,000. Such an appraisal is not inherently damning to a young hurdler’s prospects, however, as five of the thirty-four juveniles to have left Mark Johnston’s at public auction for less than £5,000 would be winners. Her new handler, Nigel Hawke, has a respectable record in the sphere with a 19.70% winner to runner rate that increases to 25.71% with flat sourced horses. The lion’s share of this success come from those from Jim Bolger’s with seven of the ten such horses winning. Indeed, the winner-to-runner rate for those not trained by Jim Bolger drops to 8%. Fascinating Rock’s record is below average by general standards with his sole winner from eight being the Joseph O’Brien trained Faron, and his clear round rate of 81.82% being low by any measure. Intriguing Lady’s uncle did win a juvenile hurdle, albeit a weak Stratford seller, and apart from minor winner Manjaam at 3/2, jumping prowess on the damline is negligible before reaching Mengli Khan at 4/2. Drifting from 9/1 to 14/1 at Hexham, all concerns manifested in the contest itself as she raced keenly, made errors at most flights before weakening tamely on leaving the back and finishing well beaten. Next time at Newton Abbot, Intriguing Lady was sent off the 20/1 outsider of the field but there was improvement from her Hexham showing. Held up in the rear, she settled much better and her jumping also saw significant improvement with her skewing over the second being the only error of note. Nevertheless, she was still treading water on the turn for home and but for her remaining rivals pulling themselves up after the penultimate flight mele, she may have finished last. In fairness, she was carried widest of all by the loose horse and though she had no chance with the winner and less chance with the would-be winner, she began to look one that could work with a reasonable mark. This fanciful notion was rather dampened on her return to Newton Abbot on the first of July as her 10/1 odds were made to look miniscule by Mucuna to the tune of fifty-three lengths. Never leaving the rear, her jumping was a mixed bag before a tired and untidy jump three out put an end to her futile pursuit of the leaders; although she did win the battle for third by a length. Intriguing Lady was subsequently given a mark of 81 which might be helpful in the long-run, but would be of no use to her here.
tl;dr
Mutara – Honest maiden on the flat at a modest level and hurdles debut was forgivable due to early interference. Returned to Stratford with a victory and though form is nothing special, a winner has come out of the race. Likeable sort and entitled to further improvement but has a lot to find with Mucuna.
Mucuna – Won a low grade handicap but has been a revelation over hurdles. Has won four from five during the summer and is comfortably the best seen in the division to date. Holds very strong chance on paper and can only be undone by extreme tactics, massive underperformance or unexpected improvement from rivals.
Flintstone – Maiden on flat but strongest form from that sphere. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ first juvenile of the season. Yard does well overall but flat recruits improve with experience. Potentials on breeding but may prefer softer ground and faces stiff task first time.
Ickytoo – One run from six on the flat was not abysmal but still way short of what is required here. Sire and trainer are capable of getting winners but not habitually so and damline offers little encouragement.
Intriguing Lady – Snippets of form for Mark Johnston but sold cheaply to trainer who does better with different type. Modicum of promise over hurdles but nowhere near enough to suggest she can make an impact here.
Outstanding prospects
1. Mucuna
Reasonable prospects
.
Feasible prospects
2. Mutara
3. Flintstone
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
4. Intriguing Lady
5. Ickytoo
Bachelors Hall
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If one were to look up the word "idiosyncratic" in the dictionary, you will find a dry description of the word "idiosyncratic". Nevertheless, if horse racing were to ever release an illustrated dictionary of the turf, a picture of Cartmel racecourse will likely accompany the definition. Set in the glorious South Lakes and nestled between the woods and the priory, it is essentially a funfair surrounded by a racecourse. While even the child version of this author would lament that those raucous children seemed more interested in the irrelevant festivities than the racing itself - a sentiment which has gotten worse with age and has expanded to encompass a large section of the racegoing public - it is not for nothing that this charming venue is a favourite of all who have made a visit. Good juveniles have graced the Cumbrian carnival with 2011 winner Countrywide Flame being the most notable, 2014 winner Vosne Romanee becoming a useful sort, while Silver Streak rather surprisingly finished fourth here in 2016 on his hurdling debut. However, given its rather novel nature, participants in Cartmel's juvenile hurdles are typically a modest breed with the average winner's seasonal RPR of 107.16 being the lowest in the country. Apart from the home stretch being located on the track's inner, there is not a great deal idiosyncratic about the hurdles course itself. A tight, flat, left handed circuit, the winning juvenile DIs of 1.32 median, 1.84 mean are predictably higher than average - although against those of the average runner, they are still quite low comparatively which ties into the notion that speedy flat breds will not get an easy ride. A point further illustrated by the fact that while the clear round rate of 96.32% is close to bang average, the completion rate of 81.60% is the tenth lowest in the division. All six odds-on favourites in Cartmel's juveniles since 2004/05 have justified their favouritism and with the median winner's SP being the second lowest in the country at 2.63, it is not a course prone to surprise results. This year’s renewal consists entirely of hurdling debutants with three bringing official flat ratings exceeding the average for juvenile hurdles, and two having scored on the level. The going is currently described as good with a moderate chance of overnight rain interrupting the warm and cloudy weather forecast between now and post time. Nevertheless, as three of the field made the running last time out with a few showing a tendency to race keenly, the pace should still be an honest one.
Barneys Gift bg Philip Kirby f9-1-3 (74) 79
Johnny Barnes (Mark Of Esteem){14-c}(0.33) 2/3 Furimix 57.0 1st 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-sur-Mer 2020
The highest rated and most experienced of these on the flat, Barneys Gift comes into the race with one win from nine, and a BHA mark of 74. He began his career in France with Jo Hughes where he reached the frame twice in four outings over seven furlongs last July; finishing third behind a couple of useful sorts at Compiegne, and a two length second in a Vichy maiden. After finishing midfield back at Vichy over a mile, he made the move to Philip Kirby’s yard where, following a creditable staying on third in a six furlong novice stakes at Pontefract, would get off the mark over an extra furlong at Redcar in early November. Coated in sweat and racing enthusiastically, he made all to justify his being backed from a morning 4/1 to 6/4 favouritism; pressing for home at the distance and holding on by three-quarters of a length at the line. The form was fairly standard for its type, although four subsequent winners have come out of the race and the mark of 78 awarded to Barneys Gift was reasonable. Given a winter break and a gelding operation, he fared poorly on his first two attempts in handicap company, finishing a tailed off last at Ripon on heavy ground, and six lengths behind the remainder at Haydock on good-to-firm. There was more promise when last seen in early June; finishing fifth of nine back at Haydock over seven furlongs on soft ground. However, he may have been flattered by setting the steady tempo and his effort petered out tamely inside the final furlong. Barneys Gift does have a trainer with a solid record in the division. Since his first forays in 2008, Philip Kirby has a good winner-to-runner rate of 27.03% headed by Skycutter; another ex-Jo Hughes animal for the same connections who won his first two starts last term. Skycutter was a good stone superior on the flat, however, and the Kirby yard has been struggling for winners recently. The pedigree offers even less encouragement as first crop sire Johnny Barnes has modest credentials for the sphere. Standing at less than 16 hands, the son of Acclamation peaked at Group Three standard and never raced beyond a mile. His preference for soft ground has been passed on to his early progeny, although that might not be so helpful in this instance. Mark Of Esteem is a fairly useful damsire, although while five descendants of the third dam have tried jumping, only one, Furimix (2/3), would show any form and that came in a claiming hurdle. On his two-year-old ability, Barneys Gift would probably be more interesting, but his credentials are crabbed not only by his and his trainer’s poor recent form, but also his questionable stamina and the lack of obvious redemption in the pedigree.
Golden Ticket bg John C McConnell f7-0-0 (57) 63
Galileo Gold (Acclamation){23-b}(1.22) 2/1 Barliffey 91 2nd 2m2f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (83), Kelso 2011
John McConnell has sent a nine strong team to Cartmel for this meeting, and his winner on Saturday brought his strike rate at the course to 30%. The Meath trainer also has a solid record with juveniles he takes to Britain; amassing four wins from twenty-one starts. Golden Ticket is set to be his first juvenile to run at the Cumbrian venue, who will be making his stable bow having been claimed out of Andrew Oliver’s for €5,000 back in July. Juveniles leaving Andrew Oliver have a fair 18.92% winner-to-runner rate, headed by Mega Fortune and Dodging Bullets, although only Gibson Park would win after fetching less than five figures. Moreover, while McConnell’s first claimed juvenile, Bringbackmemorie, finished a good second at Down Royal last week, he was quadruple the asking price of Golden Ticket. Beating just two home at Punchestown on his racecourse debut last September, Golden Ticket finished midfield at Dundalk prior to a winter break, before returning to finish last at Navan in March. Gelded and switched to handicaps with a hood fitted, his initial mark of 68 looked harsh as he finished no closer than six lengths to the winner at Gowran Park and Leopardstown twice. Better was expected from his dropping into claiming company for a ten furlong contest at Fairyhouse, where he was backed from 10/1 to 6/1 in the morning before starting the 9/2 third favourite of nine. Tracking the leader from the outset, he was called upon for his effort on entering the straight but while he challenged briefly at the distance, he was swamped inside the final furlong; finishing a two-and-a -quarter length fourth. Though it was one of his better performances, the fact that he finished just behind a 47 rated gelding puts the form into perspective. Golden Ticket would be the lowest rated runner in the line-up, and his pedigree is only fair at best. He is set to be the first hurdler for Galileo Gold, a son of Paco Boy whose nine juveniles failed to win between them. The 2,000 Guineas winner does stand at a reasonable 16.1hh and is a half-brother to winning hurdlers Palladium and Petit Palais. His uncle, Barliffey finished second in a weak Kelso handicap and that is the extent of jumps ability on the damline. While any Irish raider would warrant close inspection in a contest such as this, Golden Ticket’s profile is otherwise moderate and it may be telling that connections have opted to come here rather than take in a more competitive event closer to home.
Octopus grg Jennie Candlish f7-0-1 (60) 66
Kendargent (Refuse To Bend){8-a}(0.54) 0.5 Mackenberg 144 1st 2m3f Novices’ Chase, Catterick 2022
Starting his career with Joseph Tuite, Octopus was outclassed at York and Newbury on his first two outings last October. A switch to the all weather, under the care of Kevin Philippart de Foy, saw him backed from 22/1 to 15/2 on course and he duly posted a career best at Chelmsford when a four-length third of fifteen in a seven furlong restricted novice stakes. The race produced six individual winners at three, however, four handicap outings this term showed that Octopus had not trained on quite so well as modest efforts at Windsor, Chelmsford, Brighton and Leicester saw his mark drop from 68 to 60; all without finishing closer than sixth or nearer than seven lengths to the winner. His latest outing at Leicester back in May was as good a performance as any this season. Sporting first-time cheekpieces, Octopus broke well and led up to the two-furlong marker before falling through the field to finish seventh by as many lengths. Withdrawn from the Tattersalls Ascot May Sale, he has joined Jennie Candlish for a new career over jumps. Best known in the division for causing a 200/1 upset with Maoi Chinn Tire in the 2010 Wensleydale, Candlish’s overall winner-to-runner rate in the sphere stands at 13.33% with an improvement rate of just 27.78%. Sire Kendargent has a decent enough record with his juveniles, counting three winners from twelve to date. King d’Argent and Silver Shade managed to score first time out while Kenyan won a handicap during his initial campaign despite being rated just 45 on the flat. From the family of Brametot (2/1) and Monsun (3/1), Octopus is also a half-brother to Mackenberg who landed a hat trick of northern novice chases last term. Outside of his Chelmsford third, Octopus will need to improve on his flat form and a couple have more substantial profiles overall. Notwithstanding, his pedigree is not without merit and if the recent gelding has a positive effect, he probably won’t disgrace himself here.
The Churchill Lad bg Rebecca Menzies f6-1-0 (67) 72
Churchill (Discreetly Mine){20-a}(0.71) 5/2 Wishlon 158 3rd Christmas Hurdle, Kempton 1988
Representing the first crop of Churchill and coming from the family of Jack Sullivan (2/1) and Seventh Heaven (2/3), The Churchill Lad commanded 105,000 guineas as a foal and 130,000 guineas as a yearling before joining the Joseph O’Brien. Starting his career last December, his first three outings came in successive months wherein he finished sixth in Dundalk maidens on each occasion. He was largely undone by inexperience first time out and his second outing can be forgiven due to a very slow start. Stepping up to ten furlongs for his final Irish engagement, The Churchill Lad raced in close order, but was done by a lack of pace in the closing stages; finishing just over four lengths behind the winner. The Churchill Lad was entered for the Tattersalls Online Sale in March, but was withdrawn beforehand in order to join Rebecca Menzies. There can be a degree of caution when it comes to those let go by Joseph O’Brien as of the eighteen to have left Owning Hill, just two would win as juveniles. That being said, Menzies may be an exception to this trend as the promising Hasty Brook has at least maintained his form, and The Churchill Lad has shown no signs of regression since moving to Howe Hills. He was initially set to take in the season’s curtain raiser at Hexham in June, but was instead redirected to Haydock for a ten furlong handicap off 67. Having his first start on turf, he once again fell asleep in the stalls and racing off a sound pace, was still bringing up the rear turning into the straight. Met with traffic issues three furlongs out, he had to be brought wide to make his effort and though green under pressure, ran on to snatch fourth in the final strides. He started at 33/1 for his next outing at Newcastle later in June, but was still fairly disappointing in a first time hood where, having raced keenly for much of the contest, was unable to quicken in a race which benefited those at the head of affairs. Nevertheless, after missing engagements at Carlisle and Wolverhampton, The Churchill Lad was able to break his duck at the sixth time of asking when returning to Newcastle for a two mile handicap ten days ago. Held up behind the field while taking a keen hold, he was shaken up approaching the distance whereafter he picked off his rivals one-by-one. Under a strong drive, he caught the clear leader at the furlong pole and though the idling rival was spurred on by the new challenge, The Churchill Lad pulled out extra towards the finish to prevail by a decisive neck; the pair finishing nine lengths clear of the strung out remainder. Much of what can be discerned from The Churchill Lad’s pedigree insofar as his hurdling prospects are concerned will be based on conjecture. Churchill has yet to have a runner over jumps and there are no national hunt horses nearby on the predominantly American damline. Notwithstanding, Churchill’s prospects are not without merit for this vocation. Winner of the National and Dewhurst stakes at two before landing the English and Irish Guineas double, Churchill did finish second in the International but was not wholly proven beyond a mile. While he is out of Galileo, the damline is not entirely conducive to stamina, with full-sister Clemmie restricted to eight furlongs, and granddam Airwave being a very fast mare. Nevertheless, Churchill’s full-brother Blenheim Palace stayed at least eleven furlongs, and his height of 16.2hh, and overall class, will be positives in this endeavour. The distaff side provides only one piece of distance evidence regarding jumps potential, although this does come in the form of Wishlon who finished third in the 1988 Christmas Hurdle as a novice. Though not yet granted the most powerful ammunition, the up and coming Rebecca Menzies has done well to date with her picking up black type with the £2,000 Fabianski, getting a win out of the 51 rated Tabou Beach Boy, having only one fall/unseat from thirty-four runs, and boasting an improvement rate of 55.55% (the highest in this field). The Churchill Lad looks as strong a juvenile prospect as any handled by his trainer and with proven stamina and recent form, he comes into this race with intriguing prospects.
Eclairant Le Monde bf Donald McCain f4-0-1 (67) 71
Champs Elysees (Halling){4-m}(1.67) 2/1 Elgin 155 1st Kingwell Hurdle (G2), Wincanton 2018
Donald McCain possesses the strongest juvenile hurdling record of the trainers represented in this field with a winner runner rate of 29.82% headed by the likes of Navajo Pass, Hollow Tree and Starchitect. He also has three wins from eight in this particular contest with Gentifan winning in 2006, Ormesher in 2018 and Sacre Pierre last season. Though Never No Trouble has yet to get him off the mark for this season, he will be hoping for better with his intriguingly bred Eclairant Le Monde. Like Navajo Pass and two other winners from ten, she lived in Cholmondeley during her flat career which ended with a mark of 67. A six length fourth of nine on her sole two-year-old outing at Newcastle, she was still green when finishing sixth of twelve on her return in a Ripon maiden towards the end of May. Stepped up to an extended eleven furlongs for a Haydock novice stakes, she took up the running three furlongs out but was unsurprisingly outclassed by the front pair; one winning a handicap off 86 next time, and the other placing second in a listed race. Nevertheless, though she was beaten ten lengths, she did keep on well for third. She was unable to build on this promise when last seen in early July finishing fifth in a Carlisle maiden; weakening late on to finish over six lengths behind the winner, but within a length of subsequent improver Maggie’s Delight. On bare form, Eclairant Le Monde’s mark of 67 is probably as good as she has shown, but it still holds up well on these terms and her pedigree suggests that she should make a juvenile hurdler. Champs Elysees has a solid winner-to-runner rate of 25.42% with half of his progeny matching or surpassing their flat ability over hurdles. Her dam Clemency won twice as a novice hurdler and is a half-sister to the high-class Elgin. Mystique Heights is another winner at 3/2, while Dodging Bullets can be found further back on the damline at 5/2. Moreover, the yard is currently enjoying a grand spell of form, with all but one of their eleven most recent runners placing first or second, including a double on Saturday’s card. Eclairant Le Monde’s profile ticks practically every box and the yard also has a good record when it comes to wind operations performed on their inmates. Whether she is willing to put herself into a driving finish remains to be seen, but she would still be entitled to every respect here.
Strong prospects
1. The Churchill Lad
2. Eclairant Le Monde
Feasible/ Moderate prospects
3. Octopus
4. Barneys Gift
5. Golden Ticket
Barneys Gift bg Philip Kirby f9-1-3 (74) 79
Johnny Barnes (Mark Of Esteem){14-c}(0.33) 2/3 Furimix 57.0 1st 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-sur-Mer 2020
The highest rated and most experienced of these on the flat, Barneys Gift comes into the race with one win from nine, and a BHA mark of 74. He began his career in France with Jo Hughes where he reached the frame twice in four outings over seven furlongs last July; finishing third behind a couple of useful sorts at Compiegne, and a two length second in a Vichy maiden. After finishing midfield back at Vichy over a mile, he made the move to Philip Kirby’s yard where, following a creditable staying on third in a six furlong novice stakes at Pontefract, would get off the mark over an extra furlong at Redcar in early November. Coated in sweat and racing enthusiastically, he made all to justify his being backed from a morning 4/1 to 6/4 favouritism; pressing for home at the distance and holding on by three-quarters of a length at the line. The form was fairly standard for its type, although four subsequent winners have come out of the race and the mark of 78 awarded to Barneys Gift was reasonable. Given a winter break and a gelding operation, he fared poorly on his first two attempts in handicap company, finishing a tailed off last at Ripon on heavy ground, and six lengths behind the remainder at Haydock on good-to-firm. There was more promise when last seen in early June; finishing fifth of nine back at Haydock over seven furlongs on soft ground. However, he may have been flattered by setting the steady tempo and his effort petered out tamely inside the final furlong. Barneys Gift does have a trainer with a solid record in the division. Since his first forays in 2008, Philip Kirby has a good winner-to-runner rate of 27.03% headed by Skycutter; another ex-Jo Hughes animal for the same connections who won his first two starts last term. Skycutter was a good stone superior on the flat, however, and the Kirby yard has been struggling for winners recently. The pedigree offers even less encouragement as first crop sire Johnny Barnes has modest credentials for the sphere. Standing at less than 16 hands, the son of Acclamation peaked at Group Three standard and never raced beyond a mile. His preference for soft ground has been passed on to his early progeny, although that might not be so helpful in this instance. Mark Of Esteem is a fairly useful damsire, although while five descendants of the third dam have tried jumping, only one, Furimix (2/3), would show any form and that came in a claiming hurdle. On his two-year-old ability, Barneys Gift would probably be more interesting, but his credentials are crabbed not only by his and his trainer’s poor recent form, but also his questionable stamina and the lack of obvious redemption in the pedigree.
Golden Ticket bg John C McConnell f7-0-0 (57) 63
Galileo Gold (Acclamation){23-b}(1.22) 2/1 Barliffey 91 2nd 2m2f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (83), Kelso 2011
John McConnell has sent a nine strong team to Cartmel for this meeting, and his winner on Saturday brought his strike rate at the course to 30%. The Meath trainer also has a solid record with juveniles he takes to Britain; amassing four wins from twenty-one starts. Golden Ticket is set to be his first juvenile to run at the Cumbrian venue, who will be making his stable bow having been claimed out of Andrew Oliver’s for €5,000 back in July. Juveniles leaving Andrew Oliver have a fair 18.92% winner-to-runner rate, headed by Mega Fortune and Dodging Bullets, although only Gibson Park would win after fetching less than five figures. Moreover, while McConnell’s first claimed juvenile, Bringbackmemorie, finished a good second at Down Royal last week, he was quadruple the asking price of Golden Ticket. Beating just two home at Punchestown on his racecourse debut last September, Golden Ticket finished midfield at Dundalk prior to a winter break, before returning to finish last at Navan in March. Gelded and switched to handicaps with a hood fitted, his initial mark of 68 looked harsh as he finished no closer than six lengths to the winner at Gowran Park and Leopardstown twice. Better was expected from his dropping into claiming company for a ten furlong contest at Fairyhouse, where he was backed from 10/1 to 6/1 in the morning before starting the 9/2 third favourite of nine. Tracking the leader from the outset, he was called upon for his effort on entering the straight but while he challenged briefly at the distance, he was swamped inside the final furlong; finishing a two-and-a -quarter length fourth. Though it was one of his better performances, the fact that he finished just behind a 47 rated gelding puts the form into perspective. Golden Ticket would be the lowest rated runner in the line-up, and his pedigree is only fair at best. He is set to be the first hurdler for Galileo Gold, a son of Paco Boy whose nine juveniles failed to win between them. The 2,000 Guineas winner does stand at a reasonable 16.1hh and is a half-brother to winning hurdlers Palladium and Petit Palais. His uncle, Barliffey finished second in a weak Kelso handicap and that is the extent of jumps ability on the damline. While any Irish raider would warrant close inspection in a contest such as this, Golden Ticket’s profile is otherwise moderate and it may be telling that connections have opted to come here rather than take in a more competitive event closer to home.
Octopus grg Jennie Candlish f7-0-1 (60) 66
Kendargent (Refuse To Bend){8-a}(0.54) 0.5 Mackenberg 144 1st 2m3f Novices’ Chase, Catterick 2022
Starting his career with Joseph Tuite, Octopus was outclassed at York and Newbury on his first two outings last October. A switch to the all weather, under the care of Kevin Philippart de Foy, saw him backed from 22/1 to 15/2 on course and he duly posted a career best at Chelmsford when a four-length third of fifteen in a seven furlong restricted novice stakes. The race produced six individual winners at three, however, four handicap outings this term showed that Octopus had not trained on quite so well as modest efforts at Windsor, Chelmsford, Brighton and Leicester saw his mark drop from 68 to 60; all without finishing closer than sixth or nearer than seven lengths to the winner. His latest outing at Leicester back in May was as good a performance as any this season. Sporting first-time cheekpieces, Octopus broke well and led up to the two-furlong marker before falling through the field to finish seventh by as many lengths. Withdrawn from the Tattersalls Ascot May Sale, he has joined Jennie Candlish for a new career over jumps. Best known in the division for causing a 200/1 upset with Maoi Chinn Tire in the 2010 Wensleydale, Candlish’s overall winner-to-runner rate in the sphere stands at 13.33% with an improvement rate of just 27.78%. Sire Kendargent has a decent enough record with his juveniles, counting three winners from twelve to date. King d’Argent and Silver Shade managed to score first time out while Kenyan won a handicap during his initial campaign despite being rated just 45 on the flat. From the family of Brametot (2/1) and Monsun (3/1), Octopus is also a half-brother to Mackenberg who landed a hat trick of northern novice chases last term. Outside of his Chelmsford third, Octopus will need to improve on his flat form and a couple have more substantial profiles overall. Notwithstanding, his pedigree is not without merit and if the recent gelding has a positive effect, he probably won’t disgrace himself here.
The Churchill Lad bg Rebecca Menzies f6-1-0 (67) 72
Churchill (Discreetly Mine){20-a}(0.71) 5/2 Wishlon 158 3rd Christmas Hurdle, Kempton 1988
Representing the first crop of Churchill and coming from the family of Jack Sullivan (2/1) and Seventh Heaven (2/3), The Churchill Lad commanded 105,000 guineas as a foal and 130,000 guineas as a yearling before joining the Joseph O’Brien. Starting his career last December, his first three outings came in successive months wherein he finished sixth in Dundalk maidens on each occasion. He was largely undone by inexperience first time out and his second outing can be forgiven due to a very slow start. Stepping up to ten furlongs for his final Irish engagement, The Churchill Lad raced in close order, but was done by a lack of pace in the closing stages; finishing just over four lengths behind the winner. The Churchill Lad was entered for the Tattersalls Online Sale in March, but was withdrawn beforehand in order to join Rebecca Menzies. There can be a degree of caution when it comes to those let go by Joseph O’Brien as of the eighteen to have left Owning Hill, just two would win as juveniles. That being said, Menzies may be an exception to this trend as the promising Hasty Brook has at least maintained his form, and The Churchill Lad has shown no signs of regression since moving to Howe Hills. He was initially set to take in the season’s curtain raiser at Hexham in June, but was instead redirected to Haydock for a ten furlong handicap off 67. Having his first start on turf, he once again fell asleep in the stalls and racing off a sound pace, was still bringing up the rear turning into the straight. Met with traffic issues three furlongs out, he had to be brought wide to make his effort and though green under pressure, ran on to snatch fourth in the final strides. He started at 33/1 for his next outing at Newcastle later in June, but was still fairly disappointing in a first time hood where, having raced keenly for much of the contest, was unable to quicken in a race which benefited those at the head of affairs. Nevertheless, after missing engagements at Carlisle and Wolverhampton, The Churchill Lad was able to break his duck at the sixth time of asking when returning to Newcastle for a two mile handicap ten days ago. Held up behind the field while taking a keen hold, he was shaken up approaching the distance whereafter he picked off his rivals one-by-one. Under a strong drive, he caught the clear leader at the furlong pole and though the idling rival was spurred on by the new challenge, The Churchill Lad pulled out extra towards the finish to prevail by a decisive neck; the pair finishing nine lengths clear of the strung out remainder. Much of what can be discerned from The Churchill Lad’s pedigree insofar as his hurdling prospects are concerned will be based on conjecture. Churchill has yet to have a runner over jumps and there are no national hunt horses nearby on the predominantly American damline. Notwithstanding, Churchill’s prospects are not without merit for this vocation. Winner of the National and Dewhurst stakes at two before landing the English and Irish Guineas double, Churchill did finish second in the International but was not wholly proven beyond a mile. While he is out of Galileo, the damline is not entirely conducive to stamina, with full-sister Clemmie restricted to eight furlongs, and granddam Airwave being a very fast mare. Nevertheless, Churchill’s full-brother Blenheim Palace stayed at least eleven furlongs, and his height of 16.2hh, and overall class, will be positives in this endeavour. The distaff side provides only one piece of distance evidence regarding jumps potential, although this does come in the form of Wishlon who finished third in the 1988 Christmas Hurdle as a novice. Though not yet granted the most powerful ammunition, the up and coming Rebecca Menzies has done well to date with her picking up black type with the £2,000 Fabianski, getting a win out of the 51 rated Tabou Beach Boy, having only one fall/unseat from thirty-four runs, and boasting an improvement rate of 55.55% (the highest in this field). The Churchill Lad looks as strong a juvenile prospect as any handled by his trainer and with proven stamina and recent form, he comes into this race with intriguing prospects.
Eclairant Le Monde bf Donald McCain f4-0-1 (67) 71
Champs Elysees (Halling){4-m}(1.67) 2/1 Elgin 155 1st Kingwell Hurdle (G2), Wincanton 2018
Donald McCain possesses the strongest juvenile hurdling record of the trainers represented in this field with a winner runner rate of 29.82% headed by the likes of Navajo Pass, Hollow Tree and Starchitect. He also has three wins from eight in this particular contest with Gentifan winning in 2006, Ormesher in 2018 and Sacre Pierre last season. Though Never No Trouble has yet to get him off the mark for this season, he will be hoping for better with his intriguingly bred Eclairant Le Monde. Like Navajo Pass and two other winners from ten, she lived in Cholmondeley during her flat career which ended with a mark of 67. A six length fourth of nine on her sole two-year-old outing at Newcastle, she was still green when finishing sixth of twelve on her return in a Ripon maiden towards the end of May. Stepped up to an extended eleven furlongs for a Haydock novice stakes, she took up the running three furlongs out but was unsurprisingly outclassed by the front pair; one winning a handicap off 86 next time, and the other placing second in a listed race. Nevertheless, though she was beaten ten lengths, she did keep on well for third. She was unable to build on this promise when last seen in early July finishing fifth in a Carlisle maiden; weakening late on to finish over six lengths behind the winner, but within a length of subsequent improver Maggie’s Delight. On bare form, Eclairant Le Monde’s mark of 67 is probably as good as she has shown, but it still holds up well on these terms and her pedigree suggests that she should make a juvenile hurdler. Champs Elysees has a solid winner-to-runner rate of 25.42% with half of his progeny matching or surpassing their flat ability over hurdles. Her dam Clemency won twice as a novice hurdler and is a half-sister to the high-class Elgin. Mystique Heights is another winner at 3/2, while Dodging Bullets can be found further back on the damline at 5/2. Moreover, the yard is currently enjoying a grand spell of form, with all but one of their eleven most recent runners placing first or second, including a double on Saturday’s card. Eclairant Le Monde’s profile ticks practically every box and the yard also has a good record when it comes to wind operations performed on their inmates. Whether she is willing to put herself into a driving finish remains to be seen, but she would still be entitled to every respect here.
Strong prospects
1. The Churchill Lad
2. Eclairant Le Monde
Feasible/ Moderate prospects
3. Octopus
4. Barneys Gift
5. Golden Ticket
Bachelors Hall
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A couple of days after the south lakes hosted their sole juvenile hurdle of the season at Cartmel, Lake Worcester is set to host its own solitary juvenile hurdle. Though the race is generally contested by ordinary sorts, Cliffs Of Dover and Chief Justice, winners in 2016 and 2018 respectively, went on to make an impact in graded company while 2019 winner, Maria Magdalena, would place second in that season’s Wensleydale. This year's renewal brings together a pair who have already won in the division this term, along with a winner from the flat who has not quite taken to hurdling thus far. A flat, left handed circuit with a long home straight, winning DIs at Worcester are quite inconsistent due to a relatively low sample size. Nevertheless, given the pace that often prevails at the venue, there would appear to be an inclination towards stamina. Furthermore, with the clear round rate of 94.90% being the fifth lowest in Britain, Worcester can catch out inexperienced sorts. The going is currently described as good and with warm and dry weather forecast between now and racing, the ground will be watered as is necessary.
Flintstone chg Nigel Twiston-Davies f9-0-5 (63) 71 j1-1-0 (-) 82 92
Starspangledbanner (First Samurai){19-e}(1.00) No jumps relatives
A nine race maiden on the flat, Flintstone made it one from one for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ juvenile campaign when winning at Stratford nine days ago. The master of Grange Hill Farm does have a solid record in the division. He has handled the likes of Bristol de Mai, Torpillo and Mahogany Blaze, and his winner-to-runner rate of 33.33% is the strongest in the field. Twiston-Davies also fares well with his flat recruits, six of his twenty-seven won as juveniles, although prior to nine days ago, only one managed to score first time. Ten seasons ago, the yard had a similar type in Golden Jubilee; Hannon trained mid-sixties performer with an American damline completely bereft of jumpers, carrying the same colours. Golden Jubilee got no further than the first in a Bangor juvenile before finishing well beaten at Warwick – although after a prolonged return to the flat, he did eventually manage to win a Sedgefield handicap off 92. The similarities diverge when it comes to their sires as while Golden Jubilee was Zavata’s one and only juvenile, Starspangledbanner had eight prior to Stratford with two finding the winners’ enclosure. Though Flintstone has not managed to win as of yet, he has generally been a fair and consistent sort. His two-year-old career, starting in May, consisted of three runs in as many months; all of which came at Newbury, none of which saw him get closer than twelve lengths to the winner. Following a break of nearly nine months, he returned in a mile handicap at Kempton where he finished a two length second off 64, looking one paced in the closing stages. Over the same trip at Chelmsford, he had to be rousted along for much of the contest before keeping on for a seven length third. The step up to ten furlongs only saw him finish sixth at Goodwood, but the form has worked out quite well for the level. Afterwards, he was given a gelding operation and a two month break and while he could only manage an eight length third at Leicester, the application of blinkers saw him turn in a career best performance at Kempton in early July. Racing over a mile off a mark of 62, he turned for home with all of the field to pass, but was vying for the lead inside the final hundred yards before going down by half a length. The form was boosted by the winner following up in two of his next three starts, but Flintstone did give the impression that he was not entirely committed to the battle. Eight days later, he returned to ten furlongs, racing off the same mark, for a Chepstow handicap in which he was the second favourite of four. Disputing the lead, he appeared to be travelling best in front at the distance but was unable to fend off a couple of rivals and would merely plug on for two and a quarter length third. The runner-up went one better next time, and there was less of a quibble about Flintstone’s resolve. His hurdling bow came in a class three contest, although the defection of Mucuna make it a weak race for the grade and Flintstone would start the 13/8 second favourite behind the penalised Mutara. Racing with enthusiasm, his early jumping was big and cautious and while it became neater after going out onto the second circuit, he maintained a tendency to rather hop his flights. He disputed second for much of the contest and was shaken along passing the hill before looking decidedly outpaced on the home turn; trading as high as 26/1 in-running. Nevertheless, any lingering concerns over his resolve were dispelled as he chased the leader down the straight and, though trailing his hind legs through the last, would dourly wear down the favourite before asserting in the final fifty yards. The winning time was the slowest against standard on the card and there is little to suggest that the runner-up had improved since his course and distance win last time out. Strictly on form, Flintstone has some five pounds to find on Rolypolymoly. Nevertheless, the way his jumping improved throughout the contest suggests that he can leave his debut showing behind and his overall profile suggests that he is the more likely of the pair to make a hurdler. Moreover, there was plenty to like about the way he battled at Stratford which may well be the deciding factor between a pair with identical flat ratings.
Rolypolymoly bg Adam West f7-0-1 (63) 69 j2-1-1 (107) 91 97
Heeraat (Monsun){1-k}(0.60) 2/1 Zoffalee 135 1st 2m1f 4yo Handicap Hurdle (112), Ballinrobe 2019
Currently rated 63 on the flat, Rolypolymoly looked a fairly treated animal in that sphere and his two runs in hurdle contests to date show that he is just as good over jumps. After finishing sixth of nine on his debut at Salisbury last September, he rounded off his two year old campaign with midfield finishes at Goodwood and Kempton which earned him a BHA figure of 67. He ran to a similar level when midfield on his return at Pontefract over a mile in April, but shaped better when stepped up ten furlongs at Nottingham and Leicester, despite taking a keen grip at the latter when finishing just over three lengths behind in third. His latest flat appearance came at Salisbury, carrying top weight in a class four handicap over a mile and a half. He was supported into 7/2 second favouritism having been available at 5/1 but while he settled well enough in midfield, found himself with little room once the race picked up off a modest tempo. Whatever chance he held at the furlong marker was extinguished as he was blocked off once again and he was resigned to beating just one home. Though it can not be said that he was definitely an unlucky loser, he should have finished closer than he did in a race where the front two have both scored since. Rolypolymoly‘s damline offered flashes of optimism for his new vocation as he is out of a Monsun (36.11% winner to runner as a damsire) half-sister to capable hurdler Zoffalee. However, sire Heeraat’s five previous juveniles had finished no better than sixth in the sphere. As such, Rolypolymoly has become his sire’s best juvenile in a jumps career that began at Stratford on the tenth of July. Though up against three previous winners, he was backed down from a morning 10/1 to start the race as the 10/3 second favourite. Held up towards the rear, he did not jump with conspicuous fluency as he was awkward when hopping over the second and third, and tight at the fourth and seventh. He made headway towards the end of the back to get within striking distance, but his effort was blighted by his jumping the path on the approach to the last; from which he was slow to get away. The winner was long gone, but Rolypolymoly did rally to gain a couple of places on the run-in to finish a sixth-length second; three lengths clear of the remainder. He reappeared a fortnight later at Uttoxeter where he was supported from 3/1 in the morning to go off the 5/4 favourite. Though he hopped over the first, he jumped much more fluently on this occasion and was slotted in third position in the tightly bunched five strong field. He was within a length of the lead at three out and while he missed the hurdle, rather clambering over it, the mistake cost him little relative momentum and he was a length clear jumping the penultimate flight. From there, he was driven out and after a tidy enough jump at the last, was able to forge seven lengths clear by the line. The winning time was nothing out of the ordinary, but the form was given a boost when the runner-up landed a Killarney maiden next time out; although that horse subsequently flopped at Down Royal and the third was well beaten in a Fontwell maiden next time. Rolypolymoly was due to run at Market Rasen the following week, but was withdrawn on account of a cut leg. Now making his return after five weeks off the track, he has the ability to make a good account of himself here, although he has less scope for improvement than Flintstone and while the conditional’s claim could be handy, Rolypolymoly would not be a steering job.
Anger Management bg John Ryan f6-0-0 (44) 43 j1-0-1 (-) 77 80
Ribchester (Nayef){22-a}(1.22) 3/2 Allow Me 129 1st 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle (120), Catterick 2012
Four-time Group One winner and dual Champion Miler Ribchester is having his first jumpers this season. No taller than average, Ribchester is of the speedy Iffraaj-Zafonic sireline and his third dam was the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Mehthaaf. Nevertheless, one uncle, Tactic won over a mile and six while another, Bangkok, is being marketed as a dual-purpose sire. While half-brother Golconda Prince was unable to build on his fifth in a Huntington juvenile, another uncle, Taaresh, landed four low-grade hurdles over the minimum trip at Worcester and Wincanton. The first into the fold for Ribchester’s jumps stallion career was the six race maiden Anger Management, whose official flat rating of 44 exceeds his accomplishments. Beaten a combined seventy-seven lengths in two starts at Newmarket last Autumn, his four runs in 2022, between eight and fourteen furlongs, saw him finish no closer than twelve lengths to the winner. While the fair handicap hurdler, Allow Me, appears at 3/2 on the damline, six others within that proximity have achieved the sum total of nothing over hurdles from a combined twenty-four starts (although Nicholas Bill (Ghofar, Bollin William, Just Jasmine) is out of the fifth dam). Trainer John Ryan does have a decent enough record in the sphere with five winners from twenty-one juveniles, although only one of those would score first-time-out. At the end of last month at Market Rasen, Anger Management did not improve on that tally and was flattered by his second placing. Sent off the unfancied 16/1 outsider of three, Anger Management kept out of trouble at the back of the field as he hopped and skewed over the majority of hurdles. Off the bridle after jumping the last in the back, he managed to pass the patently underperforming second favourite three furlongs from home, but never posed even the remotest of threats to the very easy winner. By sheer virtue of his poor flat form, Anger Management may already be a better hurdler, but he still has a great deal to find if he is to make an impact here.
Rogue Mission grg Milton Harris f5-1-1 (67) 70 j2-0-0 (-) 64 70
El Kabeir (Spinning World){2-d}(4.33) 2/1 Primus Inter Pares 107 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (101), Catterick 2008
At the 2021 Tattersalls July Sale, Milton Harris walked away with four juvenile hurdlers for sums between fourteen and twenty thousand guineas. Three of these, Aliomaana, Genuflex and Knight Salute, would all find the winners’ enclosure with the latter named – incidentally the least expensive of the bunch – capping off a fantastic campaign with success in the Grade One Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree. Returning to the well at this year’s sale, Mr Harris brought along a much thicker wallet, and left with five potential juveniles; three costing over fifty-five thousand guineas. The cheapest of the quintet this time around was Rogue Mission, who commanded a comparatively modest sum of fifteen thousand guineas. Gelded before his racecourse debut in early January, Rogue Mission’s five flat outings have all come at Lingfield, the first four under the care of Tom Clover. A steady 25/1 ahead of a ten furlong novice stakes, Rogue Mission dove out of stalls, took keen hold in rear and went nowhere under pressure; finishing a ten length seventh of eight. He reappeared three weeks later in an identical contest where he attracted outside support in the ring, shortening four points to 12/1 at the off. He started better on this occasion, although he did have another horse to bounce off when leaving the stalls. Still keen and held up towards the rear, he moved into a prominent position turning for home and although he took a while to gather himself under pressure, Rogue Mission was able to narrowly get the best of an honest battle inside the final half-furlong with the pair finishing a couple of lengths clear. The runner-up sadly lost his life next time out, although the third and fourth have each given the form a bit of substance in subsequent outings. Four weeks later, Rogue Mission was outclassed in a match race against a horse who had finished a length second to a subsequent listed winner before he made his handicap debut over ten furlongs back in May. Returning after a ten-week break off a mark of 71, Rogue Mission was friendless in the market and ran accordingly. Ridden from the stalls, he made a short lived effort while going wide on the home turn, but ultimately finished a near nine length seventh of eight. Tom Clover has previously supplied only one juvenile hurdler in the form of Appreciate; who incidentally also joined Milton Harris. Based on his four runs in the division, Appreciate looked harshly treated by his mark of 90, although he has gone on to land a four-timer this Summer. Rogue Mission’s damline largely consists of milers and three (at 3/2) who went over jumps fared poorly. Nevertheless, half-brother Rare Groove won over two miles on the flat and uncle Primus Inter Pares was a winning handicap chaser over the intermediate trip. These strands of stamina influence will have to offset the lack of same from first-crop stallion El Kabeir. From the Scat Daddy/Johannesburg line (which has enjoyed little success in the sphere), El Kabir was a graded – rather than top class – miler in America, and while his height of 16.1hh is adequate, his DI of 5.86 is a concern. Moreover, while Rogue Mission has form over ten furlongs, none of his races have been strongly run affairs. Uncharacteristically these days for a Milton Harris juvenile, Rogue Mission was unfancied ahead of his hurdles debut at Stratford, as he went from an opening show of 11/4 in the morning to 13/2 at the off. In the event, he settled well enough but tight jumps at the first couple of flights saw him expend energy getting away and slow, untidy jumps at the fifth and sixth had him struggling along the back. His pecking on landing at the penultimate flight saw that he was tailed off before the home turn from which he completed in his own time. Rogue Mission returned to Lingfield for a racing league contest where he started at 125/1 and never got involved; finishing thirteen lengths behind his much better fancied stablemate Postmark. The best of his flat form sets the standard here, but his latest efforts leave plenty to be desired. While entitled to improve in the long run, it is worth noting that each of the yard’s juveniles to have won on their second outings placed either first or second on their debuts. As it so happened, Rogue Mission made it no further than the first flight when running at Fontwell a fortnight ago where, having approached the hurdle with plenty on his mind, he somehow went over it horizontally; giving Harry Reed no chance of maintaining the partnership.
Cailin Saoirse bf Alexandra Dunn f7-0-1 (48) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Bated Breath (Bahamian Bounty){14-a}(3.00) 3/2 Future Gold 75 5th 2m 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Cork 2020
Three efforts in Irish two-year-old maidens for Philip Byrne, where she finished no better than eighth or any closer than six lengths to the winner, earned Cailin Saoirse a stiff looking mark of 59. Returning in April at Navan, she was beaten by over ten lengths and the drop to 55 did see her finish in the first half of the field, although still beaten over twelve lengths. A further drop to 50 enabled her to finish a length-and-a-half fourth at Fairyhouse after which she joined Alexandra Dunn. Her UK debut came in a Ffos Lass 0-50 Classified Stakes last month over the longest trip she had encountered to date; an extended seven furlongs. There was enough support to send her off the 3/1 favourite of fourteen but she was unable to justify the gamble as while she travelled well and was in a decent position, she was too slow to challenge, ultimately finishing a three length third. Cailin Saoirse shaped as though a little further would suit and her dam did win over twelve furlongs, but stamina for hurdling is still far from assured. Moreover, there is no evidence of jumping ability on the damline and her new trainer has had just one winning juvenile from twenty-two. There was a period of support for her in the markets ahead of her hurdles bow at Fontwell, opening in the ring at 7/1 having earlier been 16/1, although she eventually drifted out again to 18/1 at the off. In the event, she also dispatched of her rider at the first flight with another flamboyant leap.
Milly Molly Mandy grf Bill Turner f4-0-0 (42) 41
Hellvelyn (King Charlemagne){21-a}(2.00) 2/1 Norfolk Sky 119 4th TBA Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (L), Cheltenham 2014
Somerset trainer Bill Turner generally has more runners on the flat than over jumps, but his record with juvenile hurdlers is quite respectable. Though only 29.17% improve for the switch in codes, his winner to runner rate of 18.97% is a fair one and it increases to 27.03% with those he trained himself on the flat. Indeed, five of these would win at the first time of asking, including the 35 rated A Double Ewe Bee who landed a Ludlow juvenile seller at odds of 66/1 in December 2004. Rated half a stone superior is Milly Molly Mandy, who will be the yard’s first juvenile this season. Milly Molly Mandy first saw the racecourse at Southwell last August where she was beat one of her eight rivals home, finishing some thirty lengths behind the winner. Later that month, she beat two home at Chelmsford; getting to within eleven lengths of the winner with her ninth place finish. That was the last seen of her until this July where she returned to Southwell to finish just over fifteen lengths last of seven in a mile maiden. Her last appearance came in a Brighton classified stakes four weeks ago where she again finished last, some twenty-five lengths behind the winner. Milly Molly Mandy now makes the switch to hurdles and while two of her dam’s siblings failed to win over jumps, Norfolk Sky did win twice as a novice and came within seven lengths of picking up some black type at Cheltenham. The third dam produced two more winners in Toskano and Knocktopher, while the 2005 Free Handicap Hurdle winner, Admiral, appears at 4/3 on the damline. However, for all the sparkles of promise found on the distaff side, none of Hellvelyn’s five previous juvenile hurdlers managed to breach the first five in nine starts between them. Strictly on flat form, Milly Molly Mandy can be given no realistic chance and the sire offers no assistance in this regard either. Nevertheless, her trainer and damline offer traces of intrigue for her as a recruit to the division without making her of any serious interest in this company first time around.
Strong prospects
1. Flintstone
Reasonable prospects
2. Rolypolymoly
Feasible prospects
3. Rogue Mission
Moderate/Negligible prospects
4. Milly Molly Mandy
5. Anger Management
6. Cailin Saoirse
Flintstone chg Nigel Twiston-Davies f9-0-5 (63) 71 j1-1-0 (-) 82 92
Starspangledbanner (First Samurai){19-e}(1.00) No jumps relatives
A nine race maiden on the flat, Flintstone made it one from one for Nigel Twiston-Davies’ juvenile campaign when winning at Stratford nine days ago. The master of Grange Hill Farm does have a solid record in the division. He has handled the likes of Bristol de Mai, Torpillo and Mahogany Blaze, and his winner-to-runner rate of 33.33% is the strongest in the field. Twiston-Davies also fares well with his flat recruits, six of his twenty-seven won as juveniles, although prior to nine days ago, only one managed to score first time. Ten seasons ago, the yard had a similar type in Golden Jubilee; Hannon trained mid-sixties performer with an American damline completely bereft of jumpers, carrying the same colours. Golden Jubilee got no further than the first in a Bangor juvenile before finishing well beaten at Warwick – although after a prolonged return to the flat, he did eventually manage to win a Sedgefield handicap off 92. The similarities diverge when it comes to their sires as while Golden Jubilee was Zavata’s one and only juvenile, Starspangledbanner had eight prior to Stratford with two finding the winners’ enclosure. Though Flintstone has not managed to win as of yet, he has generally been a fair and consistent sort. His two-year-old career, starting in May, consisted of three runs in as many months; all of which came at Newbury, none of which saw him get closer than twelve lengths to the winner. Following a break of nearly nine months, he returned in a mile handicap at Kempton where he finished a two length second off 64, looking one paced in the closing stages. Over the same trip at Chelmsford, he had to be rousted along for much of the contest before keeping on for a seven length third. The step up to ten furlongs only saw him finish sixth at Goodwood, but the form has worked out quite well for the level. Afterwards, he was given a gelding operation and a two month break and while he could only manage an eight length third at Leicester, the application of blinkers saw him turn in a career best performance at Kempton in early July. Racing over a mile off a mark of 62, he turned for home with all of the field to pass, but was vying for the lead inside the final hundred yards before going down by half a length. The form was boosted by the winner following up in two of his next three starts, but Flintstone did give the impression that he was not entirely committed to the battle. Eight days later, he returned to ten furlongs, racing off the same mark, for a Chepstow handicap in which he was the second favourite of four. Disputing the lead, he appeared to be travelling best in front at the distance but was unable to fend off a couple of rivals and would merely plug on for two and a quarter length third. The runner-up went one better next time, and there was less of a quibble about Flintstone’s resolve. His hurdling bow came in a class three contest, although the defection of Mucuna make it a weak race for the grade and Flintstone would start the 13/8 second favourite behind the penalised Mutara. Racing with enthusiasm, his early jumping was big and cautious and while it became neater after going out onto the second circuit, he maintained a tendency to rather hop his flights. He disputed second for much of the contest and was shaken along passing the hill before looking decidedly outpaced on the home turn; trading as high as 26/1 in-running. Nevertheless, any lingering concerns over his resolve were dispelled as he chased the leader down the straight and, though trailing his hind legs through the last, would dourly wear down the favourite before asserting in the final fifty yards. The winning time was the slowest against standard on the card and there is little to suggest that the runner-up had improved since his course and distance win last time out. Strictly on form, Flintstone has some five pounds to find on Rolypolymoly. Nevertheless, the way his jumping improved throughout the contest suggests that he can leave his debut showing behind and his overall profile suggests that he is the more likely of the pair to make a hurdler. Moreover, there was plenty to like about the way he battled at Stratford which may well be the deciding factor between a pair with identical flat ratings.
Rolypolymoly bg Adam West f7-0-1 (63) 69 j2-1-1 (107) 91 97
Heeraat (Monsun){1-k}(0.60) 2/1 Zoffalee 135 1st 2m1f 4yo Handicap Hurdle (112), Ballinrobe 2019
Currently rated 63 on the flat, Rolypolymoly looked a fairly treated animal in that sphere and his two runs in hurdle contests to date show that he is just as good over jumps. After finishing sixth of nine on his debut at Salisbury last September, he rounded off his two year old campaign with midfield finishes at Goodwood and Kempton which earned him a BHA figure of 67. He ran to a similar level when midfield on his return at Pontefract over a mile in April, but shaped better when stepped up ten furlongs at Nottingham and Leicester, despite taking a keen grip at the latter when finishing just over three lengths behind in third. His latest flat appearance came at Salisbury, carrying top weight in a class four handicap over a mile and a half. He was supported into 7/2 second favouritism having been available at 5/1 but while he settled well enough in midfield, found himself with little room once the race picked up off a modest tempo. Whatever chance he held at the furlong marker was extinguished as he was blocked off once again and he was resigned to beating just one home. Though it can not be said that he was definitely an unlucky loser, he should have finished closer than he did in a race where the front two have both scored since. Rolypolymoly‘s damline offered flashes of optimism for his new vocation as he is out of a Monsun (36.11% winner to runner as a damsire) half-sister to capable hurdler Zoffalee. However, sire Heeraat’s five previous juveniles had finished no better than sixth in the sphere. As such, Rolypolymoly has become his sire’s best juvenile in a jumps career that began at Stratford on the tenth of July. Though up against three previous winners, he was backed down from a morning 10/1 to start the race as the 10/3 second favourite. Held up towards the rear, he did not jump with conspicuous fluency as he was awkward when hopping over the second and third, and tight at the fourth and seventh. He made headway towards the end of the back to get within striking distance, but his effort was blighted by his jumping the path on the approach to the last; from which he was slow to get away. The winner was long gone, but Rolypolymoly did rally to gain a couple of places on the run-in to finish a sixth-length second; three lengths clear of the remainder. He reappeared a fortnight later at Uttoxeter where he was supported from 3/1 in the morning to go off the 5/4 favourite. Though he hopped over the first, he jumped much more fluently on this occasion and was slotted in third position in the tightly bunched five strong field. He was within a length of the lead at three out and while he missed the hurdle, rather clambering over it, the mistake cost him little relative momentum and he was a length clear jumping the penultimate flight. From there, he was driven out and after a tidy enough jump at the last, was able to forge seven lengths clear by the line. The winning time was nothing out of the ordinary, but the form was given a boost when the runner-up landed a Killarney maiden next time out; although that horse subsequently flopped at Down Royal and the third was well beaten in a Fontwell maiden next time. Rolypolymoly was due to run at Market Rasen the following week, but was withdrawn on account of a cut leg. Now making his return after five weeks off the track, he has the ability to make a good account of himself here, although he has less scope for improvement than Flintstone and while the conditional’s claim could be handy, Rolypolymoly would not be a steering job.
Anger Management bg John Ryan f6-0-0 (44) 43 j1-0-1 (-) 77 80
Ribchester (Nayef){22-a}(1.22) 3/2 Allow Me 129 1st 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle (120), Catterick 2012
Four-time Group One winner and dual Champion Miler Ribchester is having his first jumpers this season. No taller than average, Ribchester is of the speedy Iffraaj-Zafonic sireline and his third dam was the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Mehthaaf. Nevertheless, one uncle, Tactic won over a mile and six while another, Bangkok, is being marketed as a dual-purpose sire. While half-brother Golconda Prince was unable to build on his fifth in a Huntington juvenile, another uncle, Taaresh, landed four low-grade hurdles over the minimum trip at Worcester and Wincanton. The first into the fold for Ribchester’s jumps stallion career was the six race maiden Anger Management, whose official flat rating of 44 exceeds his accomplishments. Beaten a combined seventy-seven lengths in two starts at Newmarket last Autumn, his four runs in 2022, between eight and fourteen furlongs, saw him finish no closer than twelve lengths to the winner. While the fair handicap hurdler, Allow Me, appears at 3/2 on the damline, six others within that proximity have achieved the sum total of nothing over hurdles from a combined twenty-four starts (although Nicholas Bill (Ghofar, Bollin William, Just Jasmine) is out of the fifth dam). Trainer John Ryan does have a decent enough record in the sphere with five winners from twenty-one juveniles, although only one of those would score first-time-out. At the end of last month at Market Rasen, Anger Management did not improve on that tally and was flattered by his second placing. Sent off the unfancied 16/1 outsider of three, Anger Management kept out of trouble at the back of the field as he hopped and skewed over the majority of hurdles. Off the bridle after jumping the last in the back, he managed to pass the patently underperforming second favourite three furlongs from home, but never posed even the remotest of threats to the very easy winner. By sheer virtue of his poor flat form, Anger Management may already be a better hurdler, but he still has a great deal to find if he is to make an impact here.
Rogue Mission grg Milton Harris f5-1-1 (67) 70 j2-0-0 (-) 64 70
El Kabeir (Spinning World){2-d}(4.33) 2/1 Primus Inter Pares 107 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (101), Catterick 2008
At the 2021 Tattersalls July Sale, Milton Harris walked away with four juvenile hurdlers for sums between fourteen and twenty thousand guineas. Three of these, Aliomaana, Genuflex and Knight Salute, would all find the winners’ enclosure with the latter named – incidentally the least expensive of the bunch – capping off a fantastic campaign with success in the Grade One Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree. Returning to the well at this year’s sale, Mr Harris brought along a much thicker wallet, and left with five potential juveniles; three costing over fifty-five thousand guineas. The cheapest of the quintet this time around was Rogue Mission, who commanded a comparatively modest sum of fifteen thousand guineas. Gelded before his racecourse debut in early January, Rogue Mission’s five flat outings have all come at Lingfield, the first four under the care of Tom Clover. A steady 25/1 ahead of a ten furlong novice stakes, Rogue Mission dove out of stalls, took keen hold in rear and went nowhere under pressure; finishing a ten length seventh of eight. He reappeared three weeks later in an identical contest where he attracted outside support in the ring, shortening four points to 12/1 at the off. He started better on this occasion, although he did have another horse to bounce off when leaving the stalls. Still keen and held up towards the rear, he moved into a prominent position turning for home and although he took a while to gather himself under pressure, Rogue Mission was able to narrowly get the best of an honest battle inside the final half-furlong with the pair finishing a couple of lengths clear. The runner-up sadly lost his life next time out, although the third and fourth have each given the form a bit of substance in subsequent outings. Four weeks later, Rogue Mission was outclassed in a match race against a horse who had finished a length second to a subsequent listed winner before he made his handicap debut over ten furlongs back in May. Returning after a ten-week break off a mark of 71, Rogue Mission was friendless in the market and ran accordingly. Ridden from the stalls, he made a short lived effort while going wide on the home turn, but ultimately finished a near nine length seventh of eight. Tom Clover has previously supplied only one juvenile hurdler in the form of Appreciate; who incidentally also joined Milton Harris. Based on his four runs in the division, Appreciate looked harshly treated by his mark of 90, although he has gone on to land a four-timer this Summer. Rogue Mission’s damline largely consists of milers and three (at 3/2) who went over jumps fared poorly. Nevertheless, half-brother Rare Groove won over two miles on the flat and uncle Primus Inter Pares was a winning handicap chaser over the intermediate trip. These strands of stamina influence will have to offset the lack of same from first-crop stallion El Kabeir. From the Scat Daddy/Johannesburg line (which has enjoyed little success in the sphere), El Kabir was a graded – rather than top class – miler in America, and while his height of 16.1hh is adequate, his DI of 5.86 is a concern. Moreover, while Rogue Mission has form over ten furlongs, none of his races have been strongly run affairs. Uncharacteristically these days for a Milton Harris juvenile, Rogue Mission was unfancied ahead of his hurdles debut at Stratford, as he went from an opening show of 11/4 in the morning to 13/2 at the off. In the event, he settled well enough but tight jumps at the first couple of flights saw him expend energy getting away and slow, untidy jumps at the fifth and sixth had him struggling along the back. His pecking on landing at the penultimate flight saw that he was tailed off before the home turn from which he completed in his own time. Rogue Mission returned to Lingfield for a racing league contest where he started at 125/1 and never got involved; finishing thirteen lengths behind his much better fancied stablemate Postmark. The best of his flat form sets the standard here, but his latest efforts leave plenty to be desired. While entitled to improve in the long run, it is worth noting that each of the yard’s juveniles to have won on their second outings placed either first or second on their debuts. As it so happened, Rogue Mission made it no further than the first flight when running at Fontwell a fortnight ago where, having approached the hurdle with plenty on his mind, he somehow went over it horizontally; giving Harry Reed no chance of maintaining the partnership.
Cailin Saoirse bf Alexandra Dunn f7-0-1 (48) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Bated Breath (Bahamian Bounty){14-a}(3.00) 3/2 Future Gold 75 5th 2m 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Cork 2020
Three efforts in Irish two-year-old maidens for Philip Byrne, where she finished no better than eighth or any closer than six lengths to the winner, earned Cailin Saoirse a stiff looking mark of 59. Returning in April at Navan, she was beaten by over ten lengths and the drop to 55 did see her finish in the first half of the field, although still beaten over twelve lengths. A further drop to 50 enabled her to finish a length-and-a-half fourth at Fairyhouse after which she joined Alexandra Dunn. Her UK debut came in a Ffos Lass 0-50 Classified Stakes last month over the longest trip she had encountered to date; an extended seven furlongs. There was enough support to send her off the 3/1 favourite of fourteen but she was unable to justify the gamble as while she travelled well and was in a decent position, she was too slow to challenge, ultimately finishing a three length third. Cailin Saoirse shaped as though a little further would suit and her dam did win over twelve furlongs, but stamina for hurdling is still far from assured. Moreover, there is no evidence of jumping ability on the damline and her new trainer has had just one winning juvenile from twenty-two. There was a period of support for her in the markets ahead of her hurdles bow at Fontwell, opening in the ring at 7/1 having earlier been 16/1, although she eventually drifted out again to 18/1 at the off. In the event, she also dispatched of her rider at the first flight with another flamboyant leap.
Milly Molly Mandy grf Bill Turner f4-0-0 (42) 41
Hellvelyn (King Charlemagne){21-a}(2.00) 2/1 Norfolk Sky 119 4th TBA Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (L), Cheltenham 2014
Somerset trainer Bill Turner generally has more runners on the flat than over jumps, but his record with juvenile hurdlers is quite respectable. Though only 29.17% improve for the switch in codes, his winner to runner rate of 18.97% is a fair one and it increases to 27.03% with those he trained himself on the flat. Indeed, five of these would win at the first time of asking, including the 35 rated A Double Ewe Bee who landed a Ludlow juvenile seller at odds of 66/1 in December 2004. Rated half a stone superior is Milly Molly Mandy, who will be the yard’s first juvenile this season. Milly Molly Mandy first saw the racecourse at Southwell last August where she was beat one of her eight rivals home, finishing some thirty lengths behind the winner. Later that month, she beat two home at Chelmsford; getting to within eleven lengths of the winner with her ninth place finish. That was the last seen of her until this July where she returned to Southwell to finish just over fifteen lengths last of seven in a mile maiden. Her last appearance came in a Brighton classified stakes four weeks ago where she again finished last, some twenty-five lengths behind the winner. Milly Molly Mandy now makes the switch to hurdles and while two of her dam’s siblings failed to win over jumps, Norfolk Sky did win twice as a novice and came within seven lengths of picking up some black type at Cheltenham. The third dam produced two more winners in Toskano and Knocktopher, while the 2005 Free Handicap Hurdle winner, Admiral, appears at 4/3 on the damline. However, for all the sparkles of promise found on the distaff side, none of Hellvelyn’s five previous juvenile hurdlers managed to breach the first five in nine starts between them. Strictly on flat form, Milly Molly Mandy can be given no realistic chance and the sire offers no assistance in this regard either. Nevertheless, her trainer and damline offer traces of intrigue for her as a recruit to the division without making her of any serious interest in this company first time around.
Strong prospects
1. Flintstone
Reasonable prospects
2. Rolypolymoly
Feasible prospects
3. Rogue Mission
Moderate/Negligible prospects
4. Milly Molly Mandy
5. Anger Management
6. Cailin Saoirse
Bachelors Hall
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FONTWELL - 4th SEPTEMBER
Seventeen days ago, Fontwell’s juvenile season opened with a maiden hurdle and the three-year-olds are set to return in what is a traditionally stronger contest. Though lacking the star power of Goshen, Blazing Bailey and Mr Thriller, who had all contested later events at the venue, it has been taken by the likes of King’s Wharf (2012), Vosne Romanee (2014), and Talking About You (2020) while Diable de Sivola would finish second in 2016. As such, while the average winners’ seasonal RPR from last month’s maiden was just 99.33, this contest has one of 110.03. The line up here consists of three with experience; amongst them two previous winners, including one from the Fontwell maiden, as well as the third from said contest; two winners from the flat – including the highest rated flat recruit to date – and an racecourse debutant. None of the form brought by the experienced runners exceeds a mark of 100 (though two have been given harsh official marks to that effect), but newcomers can be at something of a disadvantage at Fontwell. In terms of strike-rate, they fare just worse than average, but only Hereford and Taunton are trickier courses for juveniles to negotiate first time. Moreover, in the seventeen runnings of this contest since 2005, five had gone to newcomers, with the remaining twelve having already ran over hurdles; the impact values being 0.58 and 1.43 respectively. In terms of other course characteristics, Fontwell is a flat, left-handed track which invariably hosts its juvenile contests over eighteen furlongs; resulting in winning Dis and completion rates being on the lower side of standard. A couple of these have made the running under either code, and while nothing does so habitually, the pace should be honest without being particularly frenetic. The going has most recently been described as good and with mainly dry weather expected between now and post time, watering will be employed to maintain the good ground.
Graffiti bg Gary Brown f7-0-0 (64) 70 j2-1-1 (106) 90 95
Sixties Icon (Excellent Art){A34}(0.82) 1/1 Banksy’s Art 100 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2018
The winner of that course and distance maiden covered in the introduction, Graffiti started off over a mile at Goodwood last September for Mick Channon. He then ran twice at Pontefract in the Autumn, finishing no nearer than eight lengths behind the winner in a pair of novice stakes. Following a winter break, he had a couple of spins on the all-weather in handicap company and while he finished last on each occasion, was at least able to finish closer. His initial mark of 71 was quite difficult to justify, and a return to the turf, drop to 67 and switch to Gary Brown’s failed to trigger a change in fortunes as he was tailed off at Pontefract over ten furlongs before looking decidedly slow over a mile when beating just one home at Newbury in June. Graffiti did shape as though he can get the trip over jumps and his full-brother, Banksy’s Art, managed to place third in a juvenile hurdle. His only other jumping relative, Big Kev (3/1), achieved little, although sire Sixties Icon (covered more in Mr Freedom’s profile) does have solid credentials for the sphere, course and time of year. Former inmates of Mick Channon’s have a solid winner-to-runner rate of 24.16%, although this drops to 19.09% when removing those who went to Sheena West; Banksy’s Art amongst them. Gary Brown himself had not enjoyed a winning juvenile from the nine he saddled since Hilali won Stratford in 2012, and the yard’s improvement rate of 16.67% is not encouraging. There was a distinct lack of confidence ahead of his Stratford bow, drifting to 25/1 from a morning show of 8s, and he hardly convinced in his temperament of jumping. Held up towards the rear, Graffiti took a keen hold as he hopped over his early hurdles, was tight and awkward at the fifth and missed the sixth. Though awkward again at the next, he did make headway over the hill and was on the leader’s quarters turning for home. From there, he looked a difficult ride under pressure and did not seem resolute on the run to the line, but while never looking to challenge the winner, Mutara, he did finish five-and-a-half lengths clear of the remainder. The form looks to amount to little as Mutata was a 55 rated flat horse who was well held on his debut, and subsequently a beaten odds-on favourite over course and distance. The remainder were either poor or badly underperformed. Little enthusiasm can be garnered from the clock either with the winning time some seven seconds slower than that posted by a 104 handicapper on the card. Five days prior to the Fontwell contest, Graffiti was given a spin on the flat in a twelve furlong Newbury handicap, but after again pulling in the rear found little when the race unfolded and was ultimately beaten twelve lengths. A recent spin was not particularly noteworthy for the trainer who is zero from twenty with runners returning within nine days. Nevertheless, it may have been a factor which enabled him to justify his being supported from 9/4 into 7/4 favouritism. Graffiti again pulled hard during the first circuit, but jumped somewhat better overall than he had at Stratford; with his wandering on the approach to a couple of early flights, skewing over another pair, and hitting the top of the sixth being the most egregious errors. Having been held up in rear during the first circuit, he moved into third along the back second time around before turning for home within a couple of lengths of the lead, travelling best of all. After the penultimate flight, he loomed alongside the leader while firmly on the bridle and following a jazzy leap at the last, was pushed out to extend a lengths advantage to a comfortable seven at the line. The form of the race was such that he did not have to improve from Stratford to win the contest, and the winning time, along with the fact that nothing jumped all too fluently, supports the notion that the race took little winning. With the benefit of course experience, Graffiti would be quite evenly matched with the reopposing Mutara, although none of the four to have come from that maiden have fared better than second in this race. The standard he sets is largely moderate and though he may not quite warrant a squiggle, there are probably a couple of hardier sorts in opposition should it turn into that kind of contest.
Mutara bg Sean Curran f8-0-3 (55) 62 j3-1-2 (107) 87 97
Muhaarar (Lucky Story){3-c}(0.78) 3/2 Ramonex 136 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (120), Catterick 2018
Making his debut at Kempton in February, Mutara finished no better than midfield on his first three outings. However, in five flat outings since his switch to handicaps in early April, he has yet to finish outside of the first four. It should be noted that these performances came off mark decreasing from 55 and that the winners’ enclosure has thus far eluded him; but by the same token, he has been a consistent animal. He was doing his best work towards the finish when third over eleven furlongs at Windsor in early May and returning to the turf after a Wolverhampton fourth, would twice find only one too good. At Leicester, he was no match for a horse who recently completed a four-timer, and at Chepstow last month, was bested by another subsequent winner. Mutara did little wrong on either occasion and has little to answer for in terms of attitude. Prior to this campaign, Muhaarar had one winner from seven juveniles and the jumpers that appear on the damline prior to Ramonex at 3/2 have been poor. Sean Curran had winners in the division; albeit at a winner to runner rate of 9.09%. None had scored first time out, which afforded lowered expectations for Mutara on his hurdling debut at this track on the tenth of July. Starting at 15/2, having been as short as 9/2 om the ring, Mutara was keen early on, and his being badly balked at the first put paid to his confidence as he was big and ungainly over the remaining obstacles. Never out of the rear, or threatening to get involved in the contest, Mutara was eased on the run-in; finishing over fourteen lengths behind Mucuna. There was ample scope for Mutara to leave that debut performance well behind, and eighteen days later back at Stratford, he found an opportunity which was enhanced by the market leaders disappointing. Donning first time cheekpieces, Mutara’s leap at the first was big, slow and untidy, but though not a model of fluency, his subsequent untidiness was relatively minor and not to the detriment to his performance. He settled quite well and tracked the leader before taking the lead at the hill on the second circuit. While he was being driven all along the final bend, he did not concede the lead and though steep at the last, he got away from the flight quickly enough and forged ahead on the run in to win by a length and a quarter from Graffiti. The form has since been somewhat advertised by the second and fourth filling the first two places at Fontwell, although it should be noted that it was a poor contest where none of the principles jumped well. Nevertheless, it was an improvement on his debut effort in terms of fluency and there was little to fault in his attitude. The withdrawal of Mucuna in a class three event back at Stratford a fortnight ago saw Mutara start the 4/6 favourite in a weak race for its type. However, he had become noticeably sweaty and, having the pace-making duties foisted upon him, was rather sketchy when hopping over the first three flights. Increasing the tempo going over the hill, he rounded the home turn with a three length advantage and appeared to have his main rival, Flintstone, outpaced; although not to the extent that his in-running price of 1.01 might suggest. By the time they reached the last, Flintstone had got to within a length and while Mutara was slightly the quicker away he was worn down at the half-furlong point before going down by a length and a quarter. Furlong for furlong, the winning time was the slowest on the card against the standard, and Flintstone subsequently disappointed when third at Worcester earlier this week. Mutara is quite evenly matched with Graffiti, and trainer Sean Curran did win this race with Talking About You in 2020, although neither set a strong standard for the flat recruits.
Cabrakan bc Milton Harris f12-1-4 (76) 83
Divine Prophet (More Than Ready){1-x}(3.00) 3/1 Enqelaab 1st 2m2f Maiden Hurdle, Downpatrick 1993
The renaissance of Milton Harris will be of no mystery to followers of the juvenile hurdling division. Last season was an especially fruitful one with six of his eight representatives managing to land at least one race; headed by his first Grade One winner in Knight Salute. One remarkable aspect of this success is that five of those winners were bought at public auction with none commanding a fee exceeding 21,000 guineas, or bringing a BHA rating in excess of 75. The yard is already off the mark this term with Mucuna, and though changing hands privately, his latest introduction is the 76 rated Cabrakan. Formerly with Richard Hannon, who is also the source of last season’s Wensleydale runner-up for the yard, Genuflex, Cabrakan is the veteran of twelve races on the flat. His career began with a seventh placing in a Newmarket novice stakes last August, finishing just over fourteen lengths behind Coroebus. Later that month, he got to within a neck of shedding his maiden tag at Ffos Las in a race inundated with future winners, before closing his season with a fourth at Kempton. His return came in a mile handicap at Windsor in early April where he was a one paced fourth off 76. Stepped up to ten furlongs, he was within a couple of lengths of the winner when third of nine at Beverley, and last of four at Salisbury. After disappointing in a falsely run race at Doncaster, he found improvement for the application of blinkers and a step up to thirteen furlongs when a staying on third at Bath. In early July, Cabrakan was able to get off the mark on his ninth attempt when landing an eleven furlong Kempton handicap off 74. Settled in midfield and racing off a true galop, he was travelling best of all when turning for home in third on the inner. His response when asked to pick up at the distance was not immediate, but the penny dropped at the furlong marker and he ran through the line to win by a neck twice. The form has yet to be rigorously tested but the second and fifth have each won since. Cabrakan’s stint with Richard Hannon ended with a couple of lesser efforts in slowly ran races behind Caius Chorister, but he was back to something like his best on his stable debut in a racing league contest at Newcastle ten days ago. Racing over an extended twelve furlongs and attracting outside support to start at 14/1, Cabrakan raced in the rear and had yet to pass a rival with two furlongs left to run. He began to pick off rivals going into the final furlong; which he completed fastest of all to finish a two-and-a-half length fifth. He is now switched to the discipline for which he was bought and while statistics suggest that newcomers can find Fontwell to be tricky, Milton Harris has the most substantial 100% clear-round record of all British and Irish trainers, with his tally currently at fifty-six. Pedigree based evidence for hurdling potential is rather thin on the ground. Nothing up to the third dam has been tried over hurdles, although she did produce a maiden winner in Enqelaab, as well as the dam of low grade winning handicapper Mohtarres. The fifth dam has branches which extend to the likes of Turgeon, Lute Antique and Pique Sous from 5/5 onwards. Antipodean sire Divine Prophet raced neither outside of the Southern hemisphere nor beyond a mile. Set to have his first runner over hurdles, the 2016 Caulfield Guineas winner has a largely speed based pedigree, but is a reasonable height for a jumps sire and being a son of Choisir is a positive (Olympic Glory and Starspangledbanner each have 33.33% winner-runner rates while Choisir himself had one of 30%). In any case, Cabrakan has already proven himself a capable stayer and with the best part of a stone in hand of his rivals on recent flat form, he has solid prospects of making an immediate impact for his always dangerous trainer.
Executive Pool bg Gary Moore f6-1-1 (54) 64
Churchill (Fastnet Rock){4-c}(0.80) 2/1 Final Approach 150 1st County Handicap Hurdle (G3,139), Cheltenham 2011
Despite being a winner on the flat, Executive Pool’s official rating of 54 is just a pound away from being the lowest in this line-up. Nevertheless, his pedigree and trainer make him difficult to dismiss on his hurdling debut. First-season sire Churchill stands at 16.2hh tall and though never quite proving that his stamina matched his class on the track, his offspring are showing themselves well capable of getting a trip and his career as a jumps stallion got off to a perfect start with The Churchill Lad. Executive Pool is out of a half-sister to the County Hurdle winner Final Approach, and is quite closely related to three other winning jumpers in Genuine Pearl (3/1), King Of Dubai (3/2) and King Red (3/2). Gary Moore has a strong winner-to-runner rate of 36.41% and his strike-rate at Fontwell is an excellent 28.72% which increases to 33.33% with hurdling debutants. He has won this particular contest three times from thirteen runners, with each success being a newcomer; including in 2017 with the 52 rated Lord E which Gary Moore trained himself on the flat. Executive Pool has also spent his career to date at Cisswood, which started off with three unremarkable efforts last Autumn in which he finished well beaten at Sandown, Goodwood and Chelmsford. His seasonal reappearance came in a 0-50 classified stakes at Brighton in early June over a mile and a half on soft ground. With first-time blinkers applied, he started the 10/3 second favourite having opened at 7/1 in the morning, and was sent straight into the lead from the outset. Setting a solid tempo, he was travelling strongest at the distance and although he drifted right and left across the track under pressure, he was always doing enough to hold the runner-up by half-a-length with the pair seven lengths clear of the rest. The runner-up has not been out since, but while the third and seventh subsequently won similarly weak events, a better indication of Executive Pool’s ability came later that month in a Windsor apprentice handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Running off a revised mark of 55, he once again set a decent tempo and looked the most likely winner at the distance; trading as low as 1.26 in-running. He was caught inside the final furlong and carried his head high in the closing stages before going down by a length-and-a-quarter. Nevertheless, the winner was landing a brace under a penalty and the pair finished six lengths clear of the remainder. He was slightly below par when returning to the all-weather three weeks ago where he raced in midfield off a modest gallop before running on in the straight to snatch a five-and-a-half length third. This effort is somewhat excusable due to the lack of pace and a possible lack of fitness. While there is a class deficit for Executive Pool to overcome, he is still a largely unexposed improver with some fine attributes for a hurdling career. A respectable hurdling debut would not be unexpected, although there is a concern over the yard’s recent form.
Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j1-0-1 (-) 75 77
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
As mentioned in Graffiti’s profile, juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen whereas those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of 38.46%. Seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which is encouraging for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and after being beaten eleven lengths at Sandown on his debut last June, was beaten nineteen and fifteen lengths at Kempton and Salisbury before being put away for the winter. In May came his return in a Bath mile handicap off 59 for which he attracted outside support; starting at 10/1 having opened at twice the price in the morning. Pulling hard in the early stages, he struggled for room in the final couple of furlongs and though he only managed an eighth place finish, he was not given a vigorous ride in posting a new career best. He failed to build on that degree of promise in a similar contest at Ripon next time and while traffic issues were something of a feature, he had no such excuses when making no show whatsoever at Windsor next time. Given a two month break, a change of scenery, and a step up to a mile-and-a-half, Mr Freedom ran a considerably better race when returning to Windsor at the start of the month. Settling better on the prominent side of midfield, he was unable to accelerate with the principle as the race developed, but still ran on for a three-and-a-quarter length fourth of ten. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a fair winner-runner rate of 20.41%, his strike-rate before October is a healthy 32.14% and he has had four wins from twenty at Fontwell. Moreover, Sheena West has had three winning juveniles at Fontwell, including the 46 rated Feb Thirtyfirst, the 53 rated Hi Note, and the 52 rated Whipperway who scored on his hurdling debut. These factors did not translate into a successful hurdling debut at this venue seventeen days ago, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third behind Graffiti. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate does jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. If he has indeed learned from his debut then Mr Freedom would hold a good chance of finishing much closer to Graffiti, although whether he actually has is another matter.
Miss Fedora bf Seamus Mullins Unraced
Helmet (Shamardal){12-b}(1.32) 3/1 Jurako 56.0 1st 3500m 4yo Claiming Hurdle, Compiegne 2005
The sole racecourse debutant in the line-up, Miss Fedora represents a Seamus Mullins with a fairly modest 11.67% winner-to-runner rate in the sphere, a first-time strike rate of 3.51%, and a zero from twenty-eight record with juveniles at Fontwell. Sire Helmet has a similarly modest winner-to-runner rate of 12.50%, but while two of the third dam’s hurdlers achieved little, a third, Jurako, won a French claimer at four. Channel Baie (3/2) is another winning descendent while the fifth dam produced the mighty Ouija Board as well as four winning jumpers headed by Spectrometer and Star Selection. Since 2004/05, only 25 from 1,038 previously unraced juveniles made winning debuts, and though far from irredeemable, the profile of Miss Fedora warrants little particular interest in this line-up.
Strong prospects
1. Cabrakan
Reasonable prospects
2. Executive Pool
Feasible prospects
3. Graffiti
4. Mutara
5. Mr Freedom
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
6. Miss Fedora
Seventeen days ago, Fontwell’s juvenile season opened with a maiden hurdle and the three-year-olds are set to return in what is a traditionally stronger contest. Though lacking the star power of Goshen, Blazing Bailey and Mr Thriller, who had all contested later events at the venue, it has been taken by the likes of King’s Wharf (2012), Vosne Romanee (2014), and Talking About You (2020) while Diable de Sivola would finish second in 2016. As such, while the average winners’ seasonal RPR from last month’s maiden was just 99.33, this contest has one of 110.03. The line up here consists of three with experience; amongst them two previous winners, including one from the Fontwell maiden, as well as the third from said contest; two winners from the flat – including the highest rated flat recruit to date – and an racecourse debutant. None of the form brought by the experienced runners exceeds a mark of 100 (though two have been given harsh official marks to that effect), but newcomers can be at something of a disadvantage at Fontwell. In terms of strike-rate, they fare just worse than average, but only Hereford and Taunton are trickier courses for juveniles to negotiate first time. Moreover, in the seventeen runnings of this contest since 2005, five had gone to newcomers, with the remaining twelve having already ran over hurdles; the impact values being 0.58 and 1.43 respectively. In terms of other course characteristics, Fontwell is a flat, left-handed track which invariably hosts its juvenile contests over eighteen furlongs; resulting in winning Dis and completion rates being on the lower side of standard. A couple of these have made the running under either code, and while nothing does so habitually, the pace should be honest without being particularly frenetic. The going has most recently been described as good and with mainly dry weather expected between now and post time, watering will be employed to maintain the good ground.
Graffiti bg Gary Brown f7-0-0 (64) 70 j2-1-1 (106) 90 95
Sixties Icon (Excellent Art){A34}(0.82) 1/1 Banksy’s Art 100 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2018
The winner of that course and distance maiden covered in the introduction, Graffiti started off over a mile at Goodwood last September for Mick Channon. He then ran twice at Pontefract in the Autumn, finishing no nearer than eight lengths behind the winner in a pair of novice stakes. Following a winter break, he had a couple of spins on the all-weather in handicap company and while he finished last on each occasion, was at least able to finish closer. His initial mark of 71 was quite difficult to justify, and a return to the turf, drop to 67 and switch to Gary Brown’s failed to trigger a change in fortunes as he was tailed off at Pontefract over ten furlongs before looking decidedly slow over a mile when beating just one home at Newbury in June. Graffiti did shape as though he can get the trip over jumps and his full-brother, Banksy’s Art, managed to place third in a juvenile hurdle. His only other jumping relative, Big Kev (3/1), achieved little, although sire Sixties Icon (covered more in Mr Freedom’s profile) does have solid credentials for the sphere, course and time of year. Former inmates of Mick Channon’s have a solid winner-to-runner rate of 24.16%, although this drops to 19.09% when removing those who went to Sheena West; Banksy’s Art amongst them. Gary Brown himself had not enjoyed a winning juvenile from the nine he saddled since Hilali won Stratford in 2012, and the yard’s improvement rate of 16.67% is not encouraging. There was a distinct lack of confidence ahead of his Stratford bow, drifting to 25/1 from a morning show of 8s, and he hardly convinced in his temperament of jumping. Held up towards the rear, Graffiti took a keen hold as he hopped over his early hurdles, was tight and awkward at the fifth and missed the sixth. Though awkward again at the next, he did make headway over the hill and was on the leader’s quarters turning for home. From there, he looked a difficult ride under pressure and did not seem resolute on the run to the line, but while never looking to challenge the winner, Mutara, he did finish five-and-a-half lengths clear of the remainder. The form looks to amount to little as Mutata was a 55 rated flat horse who was well held on his debut, and subsequently a beaten odds-on favourite over course and distance. The remainder were either poor or badly underperformed. Little enthusiasm can be garnered from the clock either with the winning time some seven seconds slower than that posted by a 104 handicapper on the card. Five days prior to the Fontwell contest, Graffiti was given a spin on the flat in a twelve furlong Newbury handicap, but after again pulling in the rear found little when the race unfolded and was ultimately beaten twelve lengths. A recent spin was not particularly noteworthy for the trainer who is zero from twenty with runners returning within nine days. Nevertheless, it may have been a factor which enabled him to justify his being supported from 9/4 into 7/4 favouritism. Graffiti again pulled hard during the first circuit, but jumped somewhat better overall than he had at Stratford; with his wandering on the approach to a couple of early flights, skewing over another pair, and hitting the top of the sixth being the most egregious errors. Having been held up in rear during the first circuit, he moved into third along the back second time around before turning for home within a couple of lengths of the lead, travelling best of all. After the penultimate flight, he loomed alongside the leader while firmly on the bridle and following a jazzy leap at the last, was pushed out to extend a lengths advantage to a comfortable seven at the line. The form of the race was such that he did not have to improve from Stratford to win the contest, and the winning time, along with the fact that nothing jumped all too fluently, supports the notion that the race took little winning. With the benefit of course experience, Graffiti would be quite evenly matched with the reopposing Mutara, although none of the four to have come from that maiden have fared better than second in this race. The standard he sets is largely moderate and though he may not quite warrant a squiggle, there are probably a couple of hardier sorts in opposition should it turn into that kind of contest.
Mutara bg Sean Curran f8-0-3 (55) 62 j3-1-2 (107) 87 97
Muhaarar (Lucky Story){3-c}(0.78) 3/2 Ramonex 136 1st 2m3f Handicap Chase (120), Catterick 2018
Making his debut at Kempton in February, Mutara finished no better than midfield on his first three outings. However, in five flat outings since his switch to handicaps in early April, he has yet to finish outside of the first four. It should be noted that these performances came off mark decreasing from 55 and that the winners’ enclosure has thus far eluded him; but by the same token, he has been a consistent animal. He was doing his best work towards the finish when third over eleven furlongs at Windsor in early May and returning to the turf after a Wolverhampton fourth, would twice find only one too good. At Leicester, he was no match for a horse who recently completed a four-timer, and at Chepstow last month, was bested by another subsequent winner. Mutara did little wrong on either occasion and has little to answer for in terms of attitude. Prior to this campaign, Muhaarar had one winner from seven juveniles and the jumpers that appear on the damline prior to Ramonex at 3/2 have been poor. Sean Curran had winners in the division; albeit at a winner to runner rate of 9.09%. None had scored first time out, which afforded lowered expectations for Mutara on his hurdling debut at this track on the tenth of July. Starting at 15/2, having been as short as 9/2 om the ring, Mutara was keen early on, and his being badly balked at the first put paid to his confidence as he was big and ungainly over the remaining obstacles. Never out of the rear, or threatening to get involved in the contest, Mutara was eased on the run-in; finishing over fourteen lengths behind Mucuna. There was ample scope for Mutara to leave that debut performance well behind, and eighteen days later back at Stratford, he found an opportunity which was enhanced by the market leaders disappointing. Donning first time cheekpieces, Mutara’s leap at the first was big, slow and untidy, but though not a model of fluency, his subsequent untidiness was relatively minor and not to the detriment to his performance. He settled quite well and tracked the leader before taking the lead at the hill on the second circuit. While he was being driven all along the final bend, he did not concede the lead and though steep at the last, he got away from the flight quickly enough and forged ahead on the run in to win by a length and a quarter from Graffiti. The form has since been somewhat advertised by the second and fourth filling the first two places at Fontwell, although it should be noted that it was a poor contest where none of the principles jumped well. Nevertheless, it was an improvement on his debut effort in terms of fluency and there was little to fault in his attitude. The withdrawal of Mucuna in a class three event back at Stratford a fortnight ago saw Mutara start the 4/6 favourite in a weak race for its type. However, he had become noticeably sweaty and, having the pace-making duties foisted upon him, was rather sketchy when hopping over the first three flights. Increasing the tempo going over the hill, he rounded the home turn with a three length advantage and appeared to have his main rival, Flintstone, outpaced; although not to the extent that his in-running price of 1.01 might suggest. By the time they reached the last, Flintstone had got to within a length and while Mutara was slightly the quicker away he was worn down at the half-furlong point before going down by a length and a quarter. Furlong for furlong, the winning time was the slowest on the card against the standard, and Flintstone subsequently disappointed when third at Worcester earlier this week. Mutara is quite evenly matched with Graffiti, and trainer Sean Curran did win this race with Talking About You in 2020, although neither set a strong standard for the flat recruits.
Cabrakan bc Milton Harris f12-1-4 (76) 83
Divine Prophet (More Than Ready){1-x}(3.00) 3/1 Enqelaab 1st 2m2f Maiden Hurdle, Downpatrick 1993
The renaissance of Milton Harris will be of no mystery to followers of the juvenile hurdling division. Last season was an especially fruitful one with six of his eight representatives managing to land at least one race; headed by his first Grade One winner in Knight Salute. One remarkable aspect of this success is that five of those winners were bought at public auction with none commanding a fee exceeding 21,000 guineas, or bringing a BHA rating in excess of 75. The yard is already off the mark this term with Mucuna, and though changing hands privately, his latest introduction is the 76 rated Cabrakan. Formerly with Richard Hannon, who is also the source of last season’s Wensleydale runner-up for the yard, Genuflex, Cabrakan is the veteran of twelve races on the flat. His career began with a seventh placing in a Newmarket novice stakes last August, finishing just over fourteen lengths behind Coroebus. Later that month, he got to within a neck of shedding his maiden tag at Ffos Las in a race inundated with future winners, before closing his season with a fourth at Kempton. His return came in a mile handicap at Windsor in early April where he was a one paced fourth off 76. Stepped up to ten furlongs, he was within a couple of lengths of the winner when third of nine at Beverley, and last of four at Salisbury. After disappointing in a falsely run race at Doncaster, he found improvement for the application of blinkers and a step up to thirteen furlongs when a staying on third at Bath. In early July, Cabrakan was able to get off the mark on his ninth attempt when landing an eleven furlong Kempton handicap off 74. Settled in midfield and racing off a true galop, he was travelling best of all when turning for home in third on the inner. His response when asked to pick up at the distance was not immediate, but the penny dropped at the furlong marker and he ran through the line to win by a neck twice. The form has yet to be rigorously tested but the second and fifth have each won since. Cabrakan’s stint with Richard Hannon ended with a couple of lesser efforts in slowly ran races behind Caius Chorister, but he was back to something like his best on his stable debut in a racing league contest at Newcastle ten days ago. Racing over an extended twelve furlongs and attracting outside support to start at 14/1, Cabrakan raced in the rear and had yet to pass a rival with two furlongs left to run. He began to pick off rivals going into the final furlong; which he completed fastest of all to finish a two-and-a-half length fifth. He is now switched to the discipline for which he was bought and while statistics suggest that newcomers can find Fontwell to be tricky, Milton Harris has the most substantial 100% clear-round record of all British and Irish trainers, with his tally currently at fifty-six. Pedigree based evidence for hurdling potential is rather thin on the ground. Nothing up to the third dam has been tried over hurdles, although she did produce a maiden winner in Enqelaab, as well as the dam of low grade winning handicapper Mohtarres. The fifth dam has branches which extend to the likes of Turgeon, Lute Antique and Pique Sous from 5/5 onwards. Antipodean sire Divine Prophet raced neither outside of the Southern hemisphere nor beyond a mile. Set to have his first runner over hurdles, the 2016 Caulfield Guineas winner has a largely speed based pedigree, but is a reasonable height for a jumps sire and being a son of Choisir is a positive (Olympic Glory and Starspangledbanner each have 33.33% winner-runner rates while Choisir himself had one of 30%). In any case, Cabrakan has already proven himself a capable stayer and with the best part of a stone in hand of his rivals on recent flat form, he has solid prospects of making an immediate impact for his always dangerous trainer.
Executive Pool bg Gary Moore f6-1-1 (54) 64
Churchill (Fastnet Rock){4-c}(0.80) 2/1 Final Approach 150 1st County Handicap Hurdle (G3,139), Cheltenham 2011
Despite being a winner on the flat, Executive Pool’s official rating of 54 is just a pound away from being the lowest in this line-up. Nevertheless, his pedigree and trainer make him difficult to dismiss on his hurdling debut. First-season sire Churchill stands at 16.2hh tall and though never quite proving that his stamina matched his class on the track, his offspring are showing themselves well capable of getting a trip and his career as a jumps stallion got off to a perfect start with The Churchill Lad. Executive Pool is out of a half-sister to the County Hurdle winner Final Approach, and is quite closely related to three other winning jumpers in Genuine Pearl (3/1), King Of Dubai (3/2) and King Red (3/2). Gary Moore has a strong winner-to-runner rate of 36.41% and his strike-rate at Fontwell is an excellent 28.72% which increases to 33.33% with hurdling debutants. He has won this particular contest three times from thirteen runners, with each success being a newcomer; including in 2017 with the 52 rated Lord E which Gary Moore trained himself on the flat. Executive Pool has also spent his career to date at Cisswood, which started off with three unremarkable efforts last Autumn in which he finished well beaten at Sandown, Goodwood and Chelmsford. His seasonal reappearance came in a 0-50 classified stakes at Brighton in early June over a mile and a half on soft ground. With first-time blinkers applied, he started the 10/3 second favourite having opened at 7/1 in the morning, and was sent straight into the lead from the outset. Setting a solid tempo, he was travelling strongest at the distance and although he drifted right and left across the track under pressure, he was always doing enough to hold the runner-up by half-a-length with the pair seven lengths clear of the rest. The runner-up has not been out since, but while the third and seventh subsequently won similarly weak events, a better indication of Executive Pool’s ability came later that month in a Windsor apprentice handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Running off a revised mark of 55, he once again set a decent tempo and looked the most likely winner at the distance; trading as low as 1.26 in-running. He was caught inside the final furlong and carried his head high in the closing stages before going down by a length-and-a-quarter. Nevertheless, the winner was landing a brace under a penalty and the pair finished six lengths clear of the remainder. He was slightly below par when returning to the all-weather three weeks ago where he raced in midfield off a modest gallop before running on in the straight to snatch a five-and-a-half length third. This effort is somewhat excusable due to the lack of pace and a possible lack of fitness. While there is a class deficit for Executive Pool to overcome, he is still a largely unexposed improver with some fine attributes for a hurdling career. A respectable hurdling debut would not be unexpected, although there is a concern over the yard’s recent form.
Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j1-0-1 (-) 75 77
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
As mentioned in Graffiti’s profile, juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen whereas those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of 38.46%. Seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which is encouraging for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and after being beaten eleven lengths at Sandown on his debut last June, was beaten nineteen and fifteen lengths at Kempton and Salisbury before being put away for the winter. In May came his return in a Bath mile handicap off 59 for which he attracted outside support; starting at 10/1 having opened at twice the price in the morning. Pulling hard in the early stages, he struggled for room in the final couple of furlongs and though he only managed an eighth place finish, he was not given a vigorous ride in posting a new career best. He failed to build on that degree of promise in a similar contest at Ripon next time and while traffic issues were something of a feature, he had no such excuses when making no show whatsoever at Windsor next time. Given a two month break, a change of scenery, and a step up to a mile-and-a-half, Mr Freedom ran a considerably better race when returning to Windsor at the start of the month. Settling better on the prominent side of midfield, he was unable to accelerate with the principle as the race developed, but still ran on for a three-and-a-quarter length fourth of ten. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a fair winner-runner rate of 20.41%, his strike-rate before October is a healthy 32.14% and he has had four wins from twenty at Fontwell. Moreover, Sheena West has had three winning juveniles at Fontwell, including the 46 rated Feb Thirtyfirst, the 53 rated Hi Note, and the 52 rated Whipperway who scored on his hurdling debut. These factors did not translate into a successful hurdling debut at this venue seventeen days ago, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third behind Graffiti. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate does jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. If he has indeed learned from his debut then Mr Freedom would hold a good chance of finishing much closer to Graffiti, although whether he actually has is another matter.
Miss Fedora bf Seamus Mullins Unraced
Helmet (Shamardal){12-b}(1.32) 3/1 Jurako 56.0 1st 3500m 4yo Claiming Hurdle, Compiegne 2005
The sole racecourse debutant in the line-up, Miss Fedora represents a Seamus Mullins with a fairly modest 11.67% winner-to-runner rate in the sphere, a first-time strike rate of 3.51%, and a zero from twenty-eight record with juveniles at Fontwell. Sire Helmet has a similarly modest winner-to-runner rate of 12.50%, but while two of the third dam’s hurdlers achieved little, a third, Jurako, won a French claimer at four. Channel Baie (3/2) is another winning descendent while the fifth dam produced the mighty Ouija Board as well as four winning jumpers headed by Spectrometer and Star Selection. Since 2004/05, only 25 from 1,038 previously unraced juveniles made winning debuts, and though far from irredeemable, the profile of Miss Fedora warrants little particular interest in this line-up.
Strong prospects
1. Cabrakan
Reasonable prospects
2. Executive Pool
Feasible prospects
3. Graffiti
4. Mutara
5. Mr Freedom
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
6. Miss Fedora
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Last year, in the corresponding piece for this corresponding race, I opened with some rather pompous waffle about the subject of tradition. Though the recycling of words can sometimes stunt creativity and make perspectives stale, it is also a useful time saving exercise. Plus, recent events have made it rather apt. So in what will hopefully be a break from some ghastly bickering over whether the ceremonial figurehead of a faded empire ought to be chastised with the same vitriol as explicit human traffickers, or if holding the hand of a grieving loved one is appropriate, here is a gloriously verbose preview essay on the topic of young horses jumping over hurdles on an autumnal Sunday afternoon in East Sussex.
Tradition. In and of itself an innocuous work which carries very little meaning without context. However, in the age of tribal polemicism, it is a word which often evokes strong reactions. For some, it is a ghastly impediment to the progress required to save society. For others, it is a value structure to be protected at all costs lest society collapse. As with most subjects of this nature, the truth lies somewhere in between and sometimes, a tradition is a matter of whimsy, largely inconsequential to the fate of humanity. One such tradition is juvenile hurdlers racing at Plumpton in September. Tomorrow’s contest is one which has been held uninterrupted since 1997; an unbroken streak which, due either to abandonments or the racing programme, must stand as one of the longest in the sphere. Furthermore, a glance at the 1965/66 Sporting Chronicle I have to hand shows that Henry Price’s Gliko won Plumpton’s curtain raiser for the season and going back to the 30th of September 1888, Calpurnin and Achilles were taking on older rivals at the same venue.
Not all tradition needs to be rich and while Plumpton been graced by juveniles of the calibre of Pentland Hills and Devilment in the past decade, tomorrow’s contest is generally less auspicious. The winner’s average seasonal RPR of 109.61 is considerably lower than standard, with subsequent Summit Hurdle runner-up City Dreamer (2017), and last year’s Scottish triumph winner Impulsive One being the only notable graduate in recent times. This year’s edition looks like a reasonable renewal as it features a couple of above average and well connected flat recruits along with a previous winner. A sharp, undulating, left-handed circuit, Plumpton’s winning DIs of 1.25 median, 1.48 mean, are fairly standard across courses; although they do rise slightly for this particular contest which is generally run on top of the ground. Its clear round rate of 95.23% is in the lowest quarter, but while this can catch out newcomers more so than at other venues, such horses actually have a slightly better strike rate (12.50%) than their more experienced counterparts (8.64%) in this particular contest. As such, a well-schooled debutant would not be ruled out. The going was most recently reported as Good (Good to Firm on the chase course), with watering amidst the dry weather scheduled between now and post time. A couple have made the running in the past and with a free-running newcomer unraced beyond a mile, the pace should be quite solid.
Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j2-1-1 (102) 87 93
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
Echoing the Bolger-Hawke route covered in I Have A Voice’s profile, juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere; and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen. After Fontwell a fortnight ago, those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of sixteen from forty. Prior to Mr Freedom’s victory, seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which afforded encouragement for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and after being beaten eleven lengths at Sandown on his debut last June, was beaten nineteen and fifteen lengths at Kempton and Salisbury before being put away for the winter. In May came his return in a Bath mile handicap off 59 for which he attracted outside support; starting at 10/1 having opened at twice the price in the morning. Pulling hard in the early stages, he struggled for room in the final couple of furlongs and though he only managed an eighth place finish, he was not given a vigorous ride in posting a new career best. He failed to build on that degree of promise in a similar contest at Ripon next time and while traffic issues were something of a feature, he had no such excuses when making no show whatsoever at Windsor next time. Given a two month break, a change of scenery, and a step up to a mile-and-a-half, Mr Freedom ran a considerably better race when returning to Windsor at the start of the month. Settling better on the prominent side of midfield, he was unable to accelerate with the principle as the race developed, but still ran on for a three-and-a-quarter length fourth of ten. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a solid winner-runner rate of 22.45%, his strike-rate before October is a healthy 33.33% and he has had three wins from fourteen at Plumpton. Moreover, Sheena West has had eight winning juveniles at Plumpton, including six rated 54 or below. These factors did not translate into a successful hurdling debut at Fontwell last month, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate did jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. Seventeen days later, or two weeks ago, all of the above led to Mr Freedom belying the relative lack of enthusiasm in the market to comfortably score back at the venue. Taking a firm hold while bringing up the field at a modest tempo, Mr Freedom still showed a tendency to hop and skew at his early flights, but it was much less pronounced than on his debut and he did hurdle quite quickly on occasion. Still bringing up the rear of a tightly bunched field jumping the penultimate flight, he passed a couple of rivals approaching the last where he was within a length of the lead. From there, he had the pace to quickly put the race to bed, winning readily by two, four and seven lengths. Given how the race unfolded, the winning time was far from impressive and little more could be said of the form. The runner-up was an uncompelling debutant and those with experience were below par. This race presents a stronger challenge, and it is probably worth nothing that the comparatively poor record of experienced horses in this contest also extends to previous winners who count just one victory from twelve. Nevertheless, while there is a class deficit to bridge, Mr Freedom did win with something in hand and with the yard still apparently in decent form, there is no reason why he can not continue this upward trajectory.
Borntobealeader chg David Pipe f9-1-2 (72) 77
Churchill (Loup Solitaire){1-w}(0.50) 2/1 Sporazene 160 1st Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2003
Pond House has long been associated with horses recruited from flat sellers and claimers. The pater enjoyed considerable success with Make A Stand and Potentate, along with winning machines Allegation, Indian Jockey and Mohana. David has continued the trend with those acquired from the continent in Adagio, who won the Finale before finishing second at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, and he opened his account this term with Koi Dodville. The latest expedition, Borntobealeader, joined the yard after winning a Goodwood seller at the end of last month. Since taking charge at Pond House, David Pipe has bought twelve juvenile hurdlers out of British sales races, with five scoring during their first campaigns in the sphere; giving a healthy winner-to-runner rate of 41.67%. Though none were able to win first time, the two highest rated (Teaser and Ocean Pride) did finish runner-up and at £21,000 Borntobealeader will be the most expensive of the kind. He would also have one of the more intriguing pedigrees as the classy Churchill is already off the mark with his first crop of jumpers, and the damline has plenty of substance for the sphere. Half-brother Photo Choc won the listed Prix Rohan on his sole start over hurdles, uncle Sporazene was a Grade One winning juvenile, another uncle, Shalako, won three times and placed fifth in a Greatwood while the third dam produced the useful French handicap chaser, Scarlino. Borntobealeader was previously trained by an Amanda Perrett whose alumni have a solid 20.37% winner-to-runner rate in the sphere; headed by Street Entertainer who moved to Pond House for 12,000gns at the 2010 Tattersalls Autumn Sale. The highlight of his four starts at two was a six-length second in a Newbury novice stakes; a performance which only justified his initial BHA mark of 74 by virtue of the long term exploits of his rivals that day. His seasonal reappearance came in a ten furlong Goodwood handicap at the end of April in which he finished a staying on third off 72, beaten by just over three-lengths. He ran to a similar level at Salisbury over a further two furlongs where he was somewhat worried out of the battle inside the final furlong, but had no real excuses in his failing to justify favouritism in fourth. He was beaten twelve and fourteen on his next two outings at Goodwood and Newbury, but following a gelding operation and a drop into selling company, was able to break his duck at Goodwood three weeks ago. Backed from a morning 3/1 into 7/4 second favouritism in the six-runner, eleven furlong affair, Borntobealeader was held up towards the rear and travelled strongest of all entering the straight. Making smooth headway to get to the leader’s quarters at the distance, he was asked for his effort at the furlong marker and though his response was not immediate, he did stay on to pass the line with a comfortable near four-length advantage. The form has not been subsequently tested and the standard brought into the race was what could be expected in such a race. Nevertheless, the winning time was fair for the level, the field finished strung out and the runner-up had won two of her last three starts. David Pipe’s first time clear round rate of 93.51% is a point below standard, but his strike-rate of 18.18%. Though the yard’s ex-sellers are not habitual first-time winners, Borntobealeader has stronger credentials in terms of form and breeding than most of his type as well as in this line-up and he should make a decent showing in a race where the benefit of previous experience is not especially pronounced.
Executive Pool bg Gary Moore f6-1-1 (54) 64 j1-0-0 (-) 75 80
Churchill (Fastnet Rock){4-c}(0.80) 2/1 Final Approach 150 1st Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (G3,139), Cheltenham 2011
Despite being a winner on the flat, Executive Pool’s official rating of 54 puts him upwards of a stone behind three of the newcomers here. Nevertheless, despite failing to land the odds on his hurdling debut at Fontwell a fortnight ago, his pedigree and trainer make him difficult to dismiss at this stage. First-season sire Churchill stands at 16.2hh tall and though never quite proving that his stamina matched his class on the track, his offspring are showing themselves well capable of getting a trip and his career as a jumps stallion got off to a perfect start with The Churchill Lad. Executive Pool is out of a half-sister to the County Hurdle winner Final Approach, and is quite closely related to three other winning jumpers in Genuine Pearl (3/1), King Of Dubai (3/2) and King Red (3/2). Gary Moore has a strong winner-to-runner rate of 36.24% and his record at Plumpton is covered in Starspangledjama’s profile. Executive Pool also spent his career to date at Cisswood, which started off with three unremarkable efforts last Autumn in which he finished well beaten at Sandown, Goodwood and Chelmsford. His seasonal reappearance came in a 0-50 classified stakes at Brighton in early June over a mile and a half on soft ground. With first-time blinkers applied, he started the 10/3 second favourite having opened at 7/1 in the morning, and was sent straight into the lead from the outset. Setting a solid tempo, he was travelling strongest at the distance and although he drifted right and left across the track under pressure, he was always doing enough to hold the runner-up by half-a-length with the pair seven lengths clear of the rest. The runner-up has not been out since, but while the third and seventh subsequently won similarly weak events, a better indication of Executive Pool’s ability came later that month in a Windsor apprentice handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Running off a revised mark of 55, he once again set a decent tempo and looked the most likely winner at the distance; trading as low as 1.26 in-running. He was caught inside the final furlong and carried his head high in the closing stages before going down by a length-and-a-quarter. Nevertheless, the winner was landing a brace under a penalty and the pair finished six lengths clear of the remainder. He was slightly below par when returning to the all-weather last month at Lingfield where he raced in midfield off a modest gallop before running on in the straight to snatch a five-and-a-half length third. This effort is somewhat excusable due to the lack of pace and a possible lack of fitness. Still considered a largely unexposed improver with some fine attributes for a hurdling career ahead of his Fontwell but a respectable showing would not have been unexpected. Although there was a concern over the yard’s form going into the race, the withdrawal of a Milton Harris runner saw him backed from a morning 8/1 to 6/4 favourite at flagfall. For all that Executive Pool raced keenly off a steady gallop in the early stages, there were no other ominous signs as his hurdling was perfectly sound save for being a little steep at the first and reaching slightly at the fifth. Leaving the back, he appeared to be travelling strongest of all at the leader’s quarters at which point he traded odds-on in running. However, he began to be shaken up turning for home and had no response as he was passed by three rivals on the approach to the last; a flight which he missed completely before being allowed to complete in his own time some thirteen lengths behind Mr Freedom. The form of that race lacks substance and the newcomers here do make this look a stronger contest. Nevertheless, Executive Pool is certainly entitled to come on for that experience and with the sharper nature of Plumpton probably in his favour, his prospects are not without merit.
I Have A Voice bg Nigel Hawke f8-1-1 (77) 88
Vocalised (Teofilo){23-b}(1.82) 0.5 Repetitio 124 3rd Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2019
Nigel Hawke’s record with ex-Jim Bolger horses has been a topic covered on numerous occasions in my writing due to the uniquely impressive results. Outside of this dynamic Hawke’s winner-to-runner rate with juvenile hurdles stands at 9.09% while ex-Bolger juveniles have one of 20%. Nevertheless, of the ten who have moved from Coolcullen to Thorne Farm seven found the winners’ enclosure. What makes this arrangement all the more intriguing is that it constitutes part a journey which ultimately leads to the Keri Brion and the American jumps programme; as trodden by the likes of Historic Heart, Boulette, Theocrat and, the winner of this very contest in 2020, Peat Moss. The latest to embark on this path is the highest rated newcomer in this field; I Have A Voice. His three outings at two came over inadequate trips at Naas, Curragh and Tipperary, leaving him to start his three-year-old campaign with a mark of 69. Sporting cheekpieces on his return in a ten-furlong April Cork handicap, having dispatched of his testicles and changed ownership over the winter, I Have A Voice had been supported from 8/1 to 9/2, but his pulling hard and suffering minor traffic issues would only see him manage a three length fourth. Next time at Roscommon the following month, he received less support in the market, but though he still ran keenly, there were no real excuses for his running to a similar level in finishing a four-length fifth of nine. Ten days later, I Have A Voice reappeared in a ten furlong handicap at Leopardstown, this time racing off 67. He was heavily supported from a morning 11/1 to 4/1 second favourite at the off and vindicated this confidence in emphatic style. Sent straight into the lead before tracking the sound tempo, he moved to dispute with half a mile to run before turning into the straight with a length’s advantage. From there, he was asked to press ahead and though initially ponderous under pressure, he ran on strongly to the line; winning by three-and-a-quarter lengths with ten back to the fifth. No winners have since come out of the race, and the ten pound rise in the weights was sufficient in anchoring him to a battling second place finish at Limerick over an extended eleven furlongs the following week. This would cap his spell in Ireland, and his British debut came a couple of months later in a two-mile Nottingham handicap off 78. He drifted like a barge in the betting, going from 12/1 to 33/1, and he ran like one in the contest itself; racing close up and sent on his way leaving the back before dropping out very tamely to finish a tailed off last. Such a flat performance is not inherently foreboding for this type of horse. Indeed, New Reality was beaten thirty-six lengths on his final flat outing before making a winning debut at Perth last September. However, Nigel Hawke’s first-time strike rate with juveniles is a mere 4.55%, and would have been lower had the aforementioned New Reality not been gifted his Perth victory. Moreover, hurdling bows seemingly count as a schooling module for yard’s juveniles; as per their first-time clear round rate of 89.39%. In terms of breeding, the pedigree of I Have A Voice is very much a curate’s egg. Half-brother and fellow traveller Repetitio was a capable juvenile hurdler, while granddam Six Nations produced four winning jumpers in Canadian Diamond, Casimir Road, Tri Nations and Calcutta Cup. Further back on the damline are the high class Japanese jumper Ken Hovawart (3/4), Souffleur (4/4), His Excellency (4/4) and Ruling (5/3). However, sire Vocalised has yet to cover himself in glory as a producer of young hurdlers, with his twenty-three runners amassing just a solitary win from fifty-five attempts. Overall, I Have A Voice has a compelling profile, bolstered by his background, flat ability and the distaff side of his pedigree. However, given his most recent outing, the sire’s record and his trainer’s M.O., the best of I Have A Voice is unlikely to be seen immediately.
Major Gatsby grg Bill Turner f16-4-4 (69) 75
The Grey Gatsby (Dream Ahead){7-a}(0.33) 3/1 Park’s Prodigy 105 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Newcastle 2007
During his estimable stud career, Danehill Dancer established himself as a fine producer of juvenile hurdling sires headed by the likes of Choisir, Jeremy and Mastercraftsman. The next generation are also showing signs of maintaining the standard with Kingston Hill, Starspangledbanner and Olympic Glory already producing winners in the sphere. The latest to join the ranks is the best named of the lot. The Grey Gatsby is not the tallest at 16.0hh, but he won the French Derby and Irish Champion Stakes at three, and is a cousin of winner Bombilla (Mastercraftsman) from the family of Triumph winner Burning Victory (3/3) and jumps influence Nonoalco (5/1). His first runner over hurdles is set to be Major Gatsby; a four-time winner on the flat at seven furlongs. An early-season two-year-old, he initially earned an official rating of 53 which dropped to 48 prior to a short head second placing in a Lingfield nursery last December. Like his father, Major Gatsby improved from two to three, registering his first success on his tenth outing when snatching a Wolverhampton handicap off 52 in January. He was off for six weeks before landing the brace back at the course, and after a length-and-a-quarter second at Kempton, would complete a Black Country hat-trick in April off 61. Given another month’s break, he ran his first good race on turf when second at Lingfield before gaining his first success on the surface at Brighton in June off 65. In each of his successes, he had shown a reluctance to settle into his races. However, this is not to suggest that he is a difficult partner as he has consistently given generously under pressure for his inexperienced riders. Major Gatsby was last seen five weeks ago at Windsor where, dropped down to six furlongs on firm ground following the longest break of his career to date, could only manage fourth of fifth; although he was not disgraced in being outpaced by just over two lengths in a fair race for the grade. His entire career has been spent under the care of Bill Turner, whose 18.64% winner-to-runner rate in the sphere increases to 20% for those who also ran for him on the flat. Turner has also had two winners from ten at Plumpton, although each of these already had at least four hurdles runs to their names beforehand. Furthermore, his charges can often find themselves underestimated in the division with big priced winners A Double Ewe Bee (66/1), Just Mossie (33/1) and Scrappy Jack (22/1) contributing to a £63.95 level stakes profit since 2004/05. The closest jumps relative on Major Gatsby’s damline, Prince Of Cardamom (2/1), was tailed off on both outings. Nevertheless, the third-dam heads a lineage of successful juvenile hurdlers as the dam of Park’s Prodigy, and granddam of Stepney Causeway and Don’t Take Me Alive as well as the prolific Tamarillo Grove. More distant relatives include top class jumpers Contraband (4/2), Royal Gait (5/2), Bold Gait (5/3) and Lieutenant Miller (5/5). The likeable Major Gatsby could make for a fairly capable recruit to the sphere, and while his stamina is currently unproven, breeding suggests he should eventually get the trip. However, “eventually” is the operative word and given that he is a horse who raced enthusiastically over short distances on the flat, it is highly likely that he will need to learn from this experience before he translates his ability to hurdles.
Starspangledjama bg Gary Moore f4-0-0 (45) 46
Starspangledbanner (Pour Moi){10-d}(0.23) 3/2 Snap Shots 72 6th 2m Maiden Hurdle, Worcester 2018
Gary Moore’s record in juvenile hurdles, counting seventy-nine individual winners since 2004/05, is one of the strongest in the country. His strike-rate at Plumpton stands at a healthy 23.53% including four in this particular contest. Taking newcomers in isolation, that equates to a 50% success rate and while three were rated 65 and above on the flat, 2013 winner Orla’s Rainbow was rated just 46. Along with Executive Pool, he saddles another newcomer in Starspangledjama. However, while Orla’s Rainbow managed to place in a selling handicap, Starspangledjama has shown the sum total of nothing in four starts on the flat. Gelded before his debut last summer and beaten a combined seventy-two lengths, the only time he finished ahead of a rival was when ninth at Kempton over six furlongs last September in a restricted race which saw him start at 500/1. His sole outing at three came over a mile and a half on heavy ground in an Epsom handicap off 46 ten days ago where he spent the entirety of the race in last position. The only jumper on his damline (which includes Mount Nelson at 3/2, and Reference Point at 5/1), was Snap Shots at 3/2 who achieved very little. Sire Starspangledbanner is a positive and being generous, it can be argued that Starspangledjama is feasibly unexposed in these conditions. However, while Jamie Moore does take the ride, that factor evokes more curiosity than enthusiasm.
Boudica Warrior bf Amy Murphy f8-0-1 (59) 67 j2-0-1 (84) 69 74
War Command (Noverre){4-m}(2.67) 2/1 Rayhani 126 1st 2m Maiden Hurdle, Limerick 2010
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/boudica-warrior
Beaten eighth of eleven on her racecourse debut at Chelmsford in December, Boudica Warrior was denied by just a length and a quarter the following month in a twelve furlong Wolverhampton maiden. Her second to the useful but quirky Charles St preceded her selling for £8,500 at the ThoroughBid January all-weather sale, although she would stay with Alice Haynes for her next three starts; the latter two seeing her beaten four lengths in handicaps off 62 and 60. From there, Boudica Warrior switched to Amy Murphy’s yard and her next three outings came in French claimers. At Vichy in May, she cut out most of the running over 2000m before being headed a furlong out and dropping to fourth. In early June, she tracked the leader at Saint-Cloud over 2800m before fading rapidly at the distance and three weeks later, on soft ground over a quarter mile shorter at Salon, again made most before struggling from the home turn. She was given a valeur of 27.0 which equates to the BHA mark of 59 brought to her hurdling debut at Uttoxeter nearly a month ago. On breeding, her hurdling credentials were fair-to-middling as sire War Command has had two winning juveniles from thirteen; albeit with a modest improvement rate of 22.22%, and while uncle Rayhani won a Limerick maiden hurdle, his two half-brothers achieved little in ten jumps outings between them. Amy Murphy does have five wins to her name in the sphere, although four of these came during the post-lockdown summer of 2020 where her yard was clearly ahead of the game. Boudica Warrior started the 22/1 outsider of five at Uttoxeter and her early jumping, skewed and trailed her legs through the first, skewing to the right at the third and hopping over the fourth, saw her pass the stands at the tail of the field. Though going left at the fifth, she was better at the next and turned into the straight looking a threat. However, the threat was short lived as she was awkward at three out and a steep and rather tired leap at the penultimate flight gave the initiative to the leading pair. A steady and laboured jump at the last betrayed her fatigue and she eventually trailed in a seventeen length third of four finishers. The form does not amount to much as while the winner was a fair second on his debut, his task was made easier by Free Chakarte’s underperformance and the time suggests nothing beyond the ordinary. Boudica Warrior fared no better for the experience in a Fontwell maiden last month where, jumping clumsily, she disputed the lead for much of the contest before tiring on leaving the back and fading tamely to finish a twenty-five length fifth. She was reported to have finished lame although the vet certificate from Friday’s ThoroughBid sale indicates no lasting effects. Incidentally, she changed hands for £3,000 and while it would be unfair to dismiss the sale as futile, she does have a fair deal to prove at this juncture.
Strong prospects
1. Borntobealeader
Reasonable prospects
2. Mr Freedom
3. Executive Pool
Feasible prospects
4. I Have A Voice
5. Major Gatsby
Moderate/Negligible prospects
6. Boudica Warrior
7. Starspangledjama
Tradition. In and of itself an innocuous work which carries very little meaning without context. However, in the age of tribal polemicism, it is a word which often evokes strong reactions. For some, it is a ghastly impediment to the progress required to save society. For others, it is a value structure to be protected at all costs lest society collapse. As with most subjects of this nature, the truth lies somewhere in between and sometimes, a tradition is a matter of whimsy, largely inconsequential to the fate of humanity. One such tradition is juvenile hurdlers racing at Plumpton in September. Tomorrow’s contest is one which has been held uninterrupted since 1997; an unbroken streak which, due either to abandonments or the racing programme, must stand as one of the longest in the sphere. Furthermore, a glance at the 1965/66 Sporting Chronicle I have to hand shows that Henry Price’s Gliko won Plumpton’s curtain raiser for the season and going back to the 30th of September 1888, Calpurnin and Achilles were taking on older rivals at the same venue.
Not all tradition needs to be rich and while Plumpton been graced by juveniles of the calibre of Pentland Hills and Devilment in the past decade, tomorrow’s contest is generally less auspicious. The winner’s average seasonal RPR of 109.61 is considerably lower than standard, with subsequent Summit Hurdle runner-up City Dreamer (2017), and last year’s Scottish triumph winner Impulsive One being the only notable graduate in recent times. This year’s edition looks like a reasonable renewal as it features a couple of above average and well connected flat recruits along with a previous winner. A sharp, undulating, left-handed circuit, Plumpton’s winning DIs of 1.25 median, 1.48 mean, are fairly standard across courses; although they do rise slightly for this particular contest which is generally run on top of the ground. Its clear round rate of 95.23% is in the lowest quarter, but while this can catch out newcomers more so than at other venues, such horses actually have a slightly better strike rate (12.50%) than their more experienced counterparts (8.64%) in this particular contest. As such, a well-schooled debutant would not be ruled out. The going was most recently reported as Good (Good to Firm on the chase course), with watering amidst the dry weather scheduled between now and post time. A couple have made the running in the past and with a free-running newcomer unraced beyond a mile, the pace should be quite solid.
Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j2-1-1 (102) 87 93
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
Echoing the Bolger-Hawke route covered in I Have A Voice’s profile, juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere; and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen. After Fontwell a fortnight ago, those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of sixteen from forty. Prior to Mr Freedom’s victory, seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which afforded encouragement for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and after being beaten eleven lengths at Sandown on his debut last June, was beaten nineteen and fifteen lengths at Kempton and Salisbury before being put away for the winter. In May came his return in a Bath mile handicap off 59 for which he attracted outside support; starting at 10/1 having opened at twice the price in the morning. Pulling hard in the early stages, he struggled for room in the final couple of furlongs and though he only managed an eighth place finish, he was not given a vigorous ride in posting a new career best. He failed to build on that degree of promise in a similar contest at Ripon next time and while traffic issues were something of a feature, he had no such excuses when making no show whatsoever at Windsor next time. Given a two month break, a change of scenery, and a step up to a mile-and-a-half, Mr Freedom ran a considerably better race when returning to Windsor at the start of the month. Settling better on the prominent side of midfield, he was unable to accelerate with the principle as the race developed, but still ran on for a three-and-a-quarter length fourth of ten. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a solid winner-runner rate of 22.45%, his strike-rate before October is a healthy 33.33% and he has had three wins from fourteen at Plumpton. Moreover, Sheena West has had eight winning juveniles at Plumpton, including six rated 54 or below. These factors did not translate into a successful hurdling debut at Fontwell last month, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate did jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. Seventeen days later, or two weeks ago, all of the above led to Mr Freedom belying the relative lack of enthusiasm in the market to comfortably score back at the venue. Taking a firm hold while bringing up the field at a modest tempo, Mr Freedom still showed a tendency to hop and skew at his early flights, but it was much less pronounced than on his debut and he did hurdle quite quickly on occasion. Still bringing up the rear of a tightly bunched field jumping the penultimate flight, he passed a couple of rivals approaching the last where he was within a length of the lead. From there, he had the pace to quickly put the race to bed, winning readily by two, four and seven lengths. Given how the race unfolded, the winning time was far from impressive and little more could be said of the form. The runner-up was an uncompelling debutant and those with experience were below par. This race presents a stronger challenge, and it is probably worth nothing that the comparatively poor record of experienced horses in this contest also extends to previous winners who count just one victory from twelve. Nevertheless, while there is a class deficit to bridge, Mr Freedom did win with something in hand and with the yard still apparently in decent form, there is no reason why he can not continue this upward trajectory.
Borntobealeader chg David Pipe f9-1-2 (72) 77
Churchill (Loup Solitaire){1-w}(0.50) 2/1 Sporazene 160 1st Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2003
Pond House has long been associated with horses recruited from flat sellers and claimers. The pater enjoyed considerable success with Make A Stand and Potentate, along with winning machines Allegation, Indian Jockey and Mohana. David has continued the trend with those acquired from the continent in Adagio, who won the Finale before finishing second at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals, and he opened his account this term with Koi Dodville. The latest expedition, Borntobealeader, joined the yard after winning a Goodwood seller at the end of last month. Since taking charge at Pond House, David Pipe has bought twelve juvenile hurdlers out of British sales races, with five scoring during their first campaigns in the sphere; giving a healthy winner-to-runner rate of 41.67%. Though none were able to win first time, the two highest rated (Teaser and Ocean Pride) did finish runner-up and at £21,000 Borntobealeader will be the most expensive of the kind. He would also have one of the more intriguing pedigrees as the classy Churchill is already off the mark with his first crop of jumpers, and the damline has plenty of substance for the sphere. Half-brother Photo Choc won the listed Prix Rohan on his sole start over hurdles, uncle Sporazene was a Grade One winning juvenile, another uncle, Shalako, won three times and placed fifth in a Greatwood while the third dam produced the useful French handicap chaser, Scarlino. Borntobealeader was previously trained by an Amanda Perrett whose alumni have a solid 20.37% winner-to-runner rate in the sphere; headed by Street Entertainer who moved to Pond House for 12,000gns at the 2010 Tattersalls Autumn Sale. The highlight of his four starts at two was a six-length second in a Newbury novice stakes; a performance which only justified his initial BHA mark of 74 by virtue of the long term exploits of his rivals that day. His seasonal reappearance came in a ten furlong Goodwood handicap at the end of April in which he finished a staying on third off 72, beaten by just over three-lengths. He ran to a similar level at Salisbury over a further two furlongs where he was somewhat worried out of the battle inside the final furlong, but had no real excuses in his failing to justify favouritism in fourth. He was beaten twelve and fourteen on his next two outings at Goodwood and Newbury, but following a gelding operation and a drop into selling company, was able to break his duck at Goodwood three weeks ago. Backed from a morning 3/1 into 7/4 second favouritism in the six-runner, eleven furlong affair, Borntobealeader was held up towards the rear and travelled strongest of all entering the straight. Making smooth headway to get to the leader’s quarters at the distance, he was asked for his effort at the furlong marker and though his response was not immediate, he did stay on to pass the line with a comfortable near four-length advantage. The form has not been subsequently tested and the standard brought into the race was what could be expected in such a race. Nevertheless, the winning time was fair for the level, the field finished strung out and the runner-up had won two of her last three starts. David Pipe’s first time clear round rate of 93.51% is a point below standard, but his strike-rate of 18.18%. Though the yard’s ex-sellers are not habitual first-time winners, Borntobealeader has stronger credentials in terms of form and breeding than most of his type as well as in this line-up and he should make a decent showing in a race where the benefit of previous experience is not especially pronounced.
Executive Pool bg Gary Moore f6-1-1 (54) 64 j1-0-0 (-) 75 80
Churchill (Fastnet Rock){4-c}(0.80) 2/1 Final Approach 150 1st Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (G3,139), Cheltenham 2011
Despite being a winner on the flat, Executive Pool’s official rating of 54 puts him upwards of a stone behind three of the newcomers here. Nevertheless, despite failing to land the odds on his hurdling debut at Fontwell a fortnight ago, his pedigree and trainer make him difficult to dismiss at this stage. First-season sire Churchill stands at 16.2hh tall and though never quite proving that his stamina matched his class on the track, his offspring are showing themselves well capable of getting a trip and his career as a jumps stallion got off to a perfect start with The Churchill Lad. Executive Pool is out of a half-sister to the County Hurdle winner Final Approach, and is quite closely related to three other winning jumpers in Genuine Pearl (3/1), King Of Dubai (3/2) and King Red (3/2). Gary Moore has a strong winner-to-runner rate of 36.24% and his record at Plumpton is covered in Starspangledjama’s profile. Executive Pool also spent his career to date at Cisswood, which started off with three unremarkable efforts last Autumn in which he finished well beaten at Sandown, Goodwood and Chelmsford. His seasonal reappearance came in a 0-50 classified stakes at Brighton in early June over a mile and a half on soft ground. With first-time blinkers applied, he started the 10/3 second favourite having opened at 7/1 in the morning, and was sent straight into the lead from the outset. Setting a solid tempo, he was travelling strongest at the distance and although he drifted right and left across the track under pressure, he was always doing enough to hold the runner-up by half-a-length with the pair seven lengths clear of the rest. The runner-up has not been out since, but while the third and seventh subsequently won similarly weak events, a better indication of Executive Pool’s ability came later that month in a Windsor apprentice handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Running off a revised mark of 55, he once again set a decent tempo and looked the most likely winner at the distance; trading as low as 1.26 in-running. He was caught inside the final furlong and carried his head high in the closing stages before going down by a length-and-a-quarter. Nevertheless, the winner was landing a brace under a penalty and the pair finished six lengths clear of the remainder. He was slightly below par when returning to the all-weather last month at Lingfield where he raced in midfield off a modest gallop before running on in the straight to snatch a five-and-a-half length third. This effort is somewhat excusable due to the lack of pace and a possible lack of fitness. Still considered a largely unexposed improver with some fine attributes for a hurdling career ahead of his Fontwell but a respectable showing would not have been unexpected. Although there was a concern over the yard’s form going into the race, the withdrawal of a Milton Harris runner saw him backed from a morning 8/1 to 6/4 favourite at flagfall. For all that Executive Pool raced keenly off a steady gallop in the early stages, there were no other ominous signs as his hurdling was perfectly sound save for being a little steep at the first and reaching slightly at the fifth. Leaving the back, he appeared to be travelling strongest of all at the leader’s quarters at which point he traded odds-on in running. However, he began to be shaken up turning for home and had no response as he was passed by three rivals on the approach to the last; a flight which he missed completely before being allowed to complete in his own time some thirteen lengths behind Mr Freedom. The form of that race lacks substance and the newcomers here do make this look a stronger contest. Nevertheless, Executive Pool is certainly entitled to come on for that experience and with the sharper nature of Plumpton probably in his favour, his prospects are not without merit.
I Have A Voice bg Nigel Hawke f8-1-1 (77) 88
Vocalised (Teofilo){23-b}(1.82) 0.5 Repetitio 124 3rd Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2019
Nigel Hawke’s record with ex-Jim Bolger horses has been a topic covered on numerous occasions in my writing due to the uniquely impressive results. Outside of this dynamic Hawke’s winner-to-runner rate with juvenile hurdles stands at 9.09% while ex-Bolger juveniles have one of 20%. Nevertheless, of the ten who have moved from Coolcullen to Thorne Farm seven found the winners’ enclosure. What makes this arrangement all the more intriguing is that it constitutes part a journey which ultimately leads to the Keri Brion and the American jumps programme; as trodden by the likes of Historic Heart, Boulette, Theocrat and, the winner of this very contest in 2020, Peat Moss. The latest to embark on this path is the highest rated newcomer in this field; I Have A Voice. His three outings at two came over inadequate trips at Naas, Curragh and Tipperary, leaving him to start his three-year-old campaign with a mark of 69. Sporting cheekpieces on his return in a ten-furlong April Cork handicap, having dispatched of his testicles and changed ownership over the winter, I Have A Voice had been supported from 8/1 to 9/2, but his pulling hard and suffering minor traffic issues would only see him manage a three length fourth. Next time at Roscommon the following month, he received less support in the market, but though he still ran keenly, there were no real excuses for his running to a similar level in finishing a four-length fifth of nine. Ten days later, I Have A Voice reappeared in a ten furlong handicap at Leopardstown, this time racing off 67. He was heavily supported from a morning 11/1 to 4/1 second favourite at the off and vindicated this confidence in emphatic style. Sent straight into the lead before tracking the sound tempo, he moved to dispute with half a mile to run before turning into the straight with a length’s advantage. From there, he was asked to press ahead and though initially ponderous under pressure, he ran on strongly to the line; winning by three-and-a-quarter lengths with ten back to the fifth. No winners have since come out of the race, and the ten pound rise in the weights was sufficient in anchoring him to a battling second place finish at Limerick over an extended eleven furlongs the following week. This would cap his spell in Ireland, and his British debut came a couple of months later in a two-mile Nottingham handicap off 78. He drifted like a barge in the betting, going from 12/1 to 33/1, and he ran like one in the contest itself; racing close up and sent on his way leaving the back before dropping out very tamely to finish a tailed off last. Such a flat performance is not inherently foreboding for this type of horse. Indeed, New Reality was beaten thirty-six lengths on his final flat outing before making a winning debut at Perth last September. However, Nigel Hawke’s first-time strike rate with juveniles is a mere 4.55%, and would have been lower had the aforementioned New Reality not been gifted his Perth victory. Moreover, hurdling bows seemingly count as a schooling module for yard’s juveniles; as per their first-time clear round rate of 89.39%. In terms of breeding, the pedigree of I Have A Voice is very much a curate’s egg. Half-brother and fellow traveller Repetitio was a capable juvenile hurdler, while granddam Six Nations produced four winning jumpers in Canadian Diamond, Casimir Road, Tri Nations and Calcutta Cup. Further back on the damline are the high class Japanese jumper Ken Hovawart (3/4), Souffleur (4/4), His Excellency (4/4) and Ruling (5/3). However, sire Vocalised has yet to cover himself in glory as a producer of young hurdlers, with his twenty-three runners amassing just a solitary win from fifty-five attempts. Overall, I Have A Voice has a compelling profile, bolstered by his background, flat ability and the distaff side of his pedigree. However, given his most recent outing, the sire’s record and his trainer’s M.O., the best of I Have A Voice is unlikely to be seen immediately.
Major Gatsby grg Bill Turner f16-4-4 (69) 75
The Grey Gatsby (Dream Ahead){7-a}(0.33) 3/1 Park’s Prodigy 105 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Newcastle 2007
During his estimable stud career, Danehill Dancer established himself as a fine producer of juvenile hurdling sires headed by the likes of Choisir, Jeremy and Mastercraftsman. The next generation are also showing signs of maintaining the standard with Kingston Hill, Starspangledbanner and Olympic Glory already producing winners in the sphere. The latest to join the ranks is the best named of the lot. The Grey Gatsby is not the tallest at 16.0hh, but he won the French Derby and Irish Champion Stakes at three, and is a cousin of winner Bombilla (Mastercraftsman) from the family of Triumph winner Burning Victory (3/3) and jumps influence Nonoalco (5/1). His first runner over hurdles is set to be Major Gatsby; a four-time winner on the flat at seven furlongs. An early-season two-year-old, he initially earned an official rating of 53 which dropped to 48 prior to a short head second placing in a Lingfield nursery last December. Like his father, Major Gatsby improved from two to three, registering his first success on his tenth outing when snatching a Wolverhampton handicap off 52 in January. He was off for six weeks before landing the brace back at the course, and after a length-and-a-quarter second at Kempton, would complete a Black Country hat-trick in April off 61. Given another month’s break, he ran his first good race on turf when second at Lingfield before gaining his first success on the surface at Brighton in June off 65. In each of his successes, he had shown a reluctance to settle into his races. However, this is not to suggest that he is a difficult partner as he has consistently given generously under pressure for his inexperienced riders. Major Gatsby was last seen five weeks ago at Windsor where, dropped down to six furlongs on firm ground following the longest break of his career to date, could only manage fourth of fifth; although he was not disgraced in being outpaced by just over two lengths in a fair race for the grade. His entire career has been spent under the care of Bill Turner, whose 18.64% winner-to-runner rate in the sphere increases to 20% for those who also ran for him on the flat. Turner has also had two winners from ten at Plumpton, although each of these already had at least four hurdles runs to their names beforehand. Furthermore, his charges can often find themselves underestimated in the division with big priced winners A Double Ewe Bee (66/1), Just Mossie (33/1) and Scrappy Jack (22/1) contributing to a £63.95 level stakes profit since 2004/05. The closest jumps relative on Major Gatsby’s damline, Prince Of Cardamom (2/1), was tailed off on both outings. Nevertheless, the third-dam heads a lineage of successful juvenile hurdlers as the dam of Park’s Prodigy, and granddam of Stepney Causeway and Don’t Take Me Alive as well as the prolific Tamarillo Grove. More distant relatives include top class jumpers Contraband (4/2), Royal Gait (5/2), Bold Gait (5/3) and Lieutenant Miller (5/5). The likeable Major Gatsby could make for a fairly capable recruit to the sphere, and while his stamina is currently unproven, breeding suggests he should eventually get the trip. However, “eventually” is the operative word and given that he is a horse who raced enthusiastically over short distances on the flat, it is highly likely that he will need to learn from this experience before he translates his ability to hurdles.
Starspangledjama bg Gary Moore f4-0-0 (45) 46
Starspangledbanner (Pour Moi){10-d}(0.23) 3/2 Snap Shots 72 6th 2m Maiden Hurdle, Worcester 2018
Gary Moore’s record in juvenile hurdles, counting seventy-nine individual winners since 2004/05, is one of the strongest in the country. His strike-rate at Plumpton stands at a healthy 23.53% including four in this particular contest. Taking newcomers in isolation, that equates to a 50% success rate and while three were rated 65 and above on the flat, 2013 winner Orla’s Rainbow was rated just 46. Along with Executive Pool, he saddles another newcomer in Starspangledjama. However, while Orla’s Rainbow managed to place in a selling handicap, Starspangledjama has shown the sum total of nothing in four starts on the flat. Gelded before his debut last summer and beaten a combined seventy-two lengths, the only time he finished ahead of a rival was when ninth at Kempton over six furlongs last September in a restricted race which saw him start at 500/1. His sole outing at three came over a mile and a half on heavy ground in an Epsom handicap off 46 ten days ago where he spent the entirety of the race in last position. The only jumper on his damline (which includes Mount Nelson at 3/2, and Reference Point at 5/1), was Snap Shots at 3/2 who achieved very little. Sire Starspangledbanner is a positive and being generous, it can be argued that Starspangledjama is feasibly unexposed in these conditions. However, while Jamie Moore does take the ride, that factor evokes more curiosity than enthusiasm.
Boudica Warrior bf Amy Murphy f8-0-1 (59) 67 j2-0-1 (84) 69 74
War Command (Noverre){4-m}(2.67) 2/1 Rayhani 126 1st 2m Maiden Hurdle, Limerick 2010
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/boudica-warrior
Beaten eighth of eleven on her racecourse debut at Chelmsford in December, Boudica Warrior was denied by just a length and a quarter the following month in a twelve furlong Wolverhampton maiden. Her second to the useful but quirky Charles St preceded her selling for £8,500 at the ThoroughBid January all-weather sale, although she would stay with Alice Haynes for her next three starts; the latter two seeing her beaten four lengths in handicaps off 62 and 60. From there, Boudica Warrior switched to Amy Murphy’s yard and her next three outings came in French claimers. At Vichy in May, she cut out most of the running over 2000m before being headed a furlong out and dropping to fourth. In early June, she tracked the leader at Saint-Cloud over 2800m before fading rapidly at the distance and three weeks later, on soft ground over a quarter mile shorter at Salon, again made most before struggling from the home turn. She was given a valeur of 27.0 which equates to the BHA mark of 59 brought to her hurdling debut at Uttoxeter nearly a month ago. On breeding, her hurdling credentials were fair-to-middling as sire War Command has had two winning juveniles from thirteen; albeit with a modest improvement rate of 22.22%, and while uncle Rayhani won a Limerick maiden hurdle, his two half-brothers achieved little in ten jumps outings between them. Amy Murphy does have five wins to her name in the sphere, although four of these came during the post-lockdown summer of 2020 where her yard was clearly ahead of the game. Boudica Warrior started the 22/1 outsider of five at Uttoxeter and her early jumping, skewed and trailed her legs through the first, skewing to the right at the third and hopping over the fourth, saw her pass the stands at the tail of the field. Though going left at the fifth, she was better at the next and turned into the straight looking a threat. However, the threat was short lived as she was awkward at three out and a steep and rather tired leap at the penultimate flight gave the initiative to the leading pair. A steady and laboured jump at the last betrayed her fatigue and she eventually trailed in a seventeen length third of four finishers. The form does not amount to much as while the winner was a fair second on his debut, his task was made easier by Free Chakarte’s underperformance and the time suggests nothing beyond the ordinary. Boudica Warrior fared no better for the experience in a Fontwell maiden last month where, jumping clumsily, she disputed the lead for much of the contest before tiring on leaving the back and fading tamely to finish a twenty-five length fifth. She was reported to have finished lame although the vet certificate from Friday’s ThoroughBid sale indicates no lasting effects. Incidentally, she changed hands for £3,000 and while it would be unfair to dismiss the sale as futile, she does have a fair deal to prove at this juncture.
Strong prospects
1. Borntobealeader
Reasonable prospects
2. Mr Freedom
3. Executive Pool
Feasible prospects
4. I Have A Voice
5. Major Gatsby
Moderate/Negligible prospects
6. Boudica Warrior
7. Starspangledjama
Colin
At the Start
Wonderful stuff, BH.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Aug 2, 2005
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- 25,763
I took 9/4 as soon as I read your piece yesterday afternoon, BH, when only B365 were quoting. Glad I did. 11/8 tops now.
Bachelors Hall
Conditional
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- Apr 24, 2012
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- 763
At least the "strong prospect" beat the opening show again 
Once again, a solid reminder that I AM NOT A TIPSTER. I am a writer/researcher/previewer/pseud. Provided that the result can make sense in hindsight according to whatever I write beforehand, I am satisfied with the previews.
Incidentally, the underlined ratings have been doing quite well over the past couple of months...
Once again, a solid reminder that I AM NOT A TIPSTER. I am a writer/researcher/previewer/pseud. Provided that the result can make sense in hindsight according to whatever I write beforehand, I am satisfied with the previews.
Incidentally, the underlined ratings have been doing quite well over the past couple of months...
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,763
At least the "strong prospect" beat the opening show again
Once again, a solid reminder that I AM NOT A TIPSTER. I am a writer/researcher/previewer/pseud. Provided that the result can make sense in hindsight according to whatever I write beforehand, I am satisfied with the previews.
Totally understood and appreciated. I feel the same way about myself. I [usually] put in the work and share my findings with what I hope are like-minded cyberfriends.
Bachelors Hall
Conditional
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2012
- Messages
- 763
The juvenile hurdle on Market Rasen’s ‘Prelude’ card was, in 2003, a selling race. That contest was won by Quick who was bought-in for 3,600 guineas ahead of a career which saw him place at the Cheltenham festival. With the exception of 2005, it has since been a Class 2 contest and carries a very respectable roll call that would warrant a title along the lines of “Triumph Hurdle of the Summer”. Indeed, 2006 winner Katchit would follow up in the real deal at Cheltenham later that season while Franchoek, runner-up in 2007, and Barizan, winner in 2009, would each finish second in the Festival showpiece. Recent years have been comparatively barren with the latest graduate to reach the front five in the Triumph being 2015 winner Leoncavallo. Nevertheless, the likes of Fox Norton, Cliffs of Dover and Talking About You have emerged from this race to collect pattern races during the same season. Though this contest is usually representative of the best juvenile hurdlers seen over the summer, this summer’s crop has lacked the strength and depth of previous seasons. Just two come into this race with hurdling experience and while the unexposed The Churchill Lad put up one of the more impressive British performances to date, Via Serica failed to show on his start over course and distance. Moreover, only one of the four newcomers won on the flat and although their form is above average in the grand scheme of things, it is ten pound short of that shown by four of the six winning newcomers in this race. Notwithstanding, all six declared runners have positives in their profile and while it is a stretch to imagine many of these contesting the season’s better races, it should still be an interesting and informative affair.
Set in the town rumoured to be the subject of Elton John’s “Saturday Night’s Alright For Fighting”, Market Rasen is a fairly tight, right handed circuit with minor undulations. Favouring sharper sorts, its average winners’ DIs of 1.27 median, 1.68 mean, are some of the highest in the country and while they drop for this particular contest, this would be more due to class correlation than any real stamina requirements; the average winner’s seasonal RPR being eight pounds higher than in other races at the venue. The clear round rate of 95.72% is fractionally below the national average although it does see more juveniles pull up than standard. Previous winners have an impact value of 1.79 in this race although while newcomers can struggle to jump around the venue, they are historically at no discernible disadvantage in this race. The ground is currently riding as good and has been watered to maintained with little to no rain is forecast before post time. A few of these have made the running on the flat, including a free-running sort who did so over an extended mile last time out. Without being particularly strong or searching, the pace should at least be honest.
The Churchill Lad bg Rebecca Menzies f6-1-0 (67) 72 j1-1-0 (-) 101 103
Churchill (Discreetly Mine){20-a}(0.71) 5/2 Wishlon 158 3rd Christmas Hurdle, Kempton 1988
Representing the first crop of Churchill and coming from the family of Jack Sullivan (2/1) and Seventh Heaven (2/3), The Churchill Lad commanded 105,000 guineas as a foal and 130,000 guineas as a yearling before joining the Joseph O’Brien. Starting his career last December, his first three outings came in successive months wherein he finished sixth in Dundalk maidens on each occasion. He was largely undone by inexperience first time out and his second outing can be forgiven due to a very slow start. Stepping up to ten furlongs for his final Irish engagement, The Churchill Lad raced in close order, but was done by a lack of pace in the closing stages; finishing just over four lengths behind the winner. The Churchill Lad was entered for the Tattersalls Online Sale in March, but was withdrawn beforehand in order to join Rebecca Menzies. There can be a degree of caution when it comes to those let go by Joseph O’Brien as of the eighteen to have left Owning Hill, just two would win as juveniles. That being said, Menzies may be an exception to this trend as the promising Hasty Brook has at least maintained his form, and The Churchill Lad has shown no signs of regression since moving to Howe Hills. He was initially set to take in the season’s curtain raiser at Hexham in June, but was instead redirected to Haydock for a ten furlong handicap off 67. Having his first start on turf, he once again fell asleep in the stalls and racing off a sound pace, was still bringing up the rear turning into the straight. Met with traffic issues three furlongs out, he had to be brought wide to make his effort and though green under pressure, ran on to snatch fourth in the final strides. He started at 33/1 for his next outing at Newcastle later in June, but was still fairly disappointing in a first time hood where, having raced keenly for much of the contest, was unable to quicken in a race which benefited those at the head of affairs. Nevertheless, after missing engagements at Carlisle and Wolverhampton, The Churchill Lad was able to break his duck at the sixth time of asking when returning to Newcastle for a two mile handicap in mid-August. Held up behind the field while taking a keen hold, he was shaken up approaching the distance whereafter he picked off his rivals one-by-one. Under a strong drive, he caught the clear leader at the furlong pole and though the idling rival was spurred on by the new challenge, The Churchill Lad pulled out extra towards the finish to prevail by a decisive neck; the pair finishing nine lengths clear of the strung out remainder. Much of what can be discerned from The Churchill Lad’s pedigree insofar as his hurdling prospects are concerned would have been based on conjecture. The Churchill Lad was Churchill’s first runner over jumps, and there are no national hunt horses nearby on the predominantly American damline. Notwithstanding, Churchill’s prospects are not without merit for this vocation. Winner of the National and Dewhurst stakes at two before landing the English and Irish Guineas double, Churchill did finish second in the International but was not wholly proven beyond a mile. While he is out of Galileo, the damline is not entirely conducive to stamina, with full-sister Clemmie restricted to eight furlongs, and granddam Airwave being a very fast mare. Nevertheless, Churchill’s full-brother Blenheim Palace stayed at least eleven furlongs, and his height of 16.2hh, and overall class, will be positives in this endeavour. The distaff side provides only one piece of distance evidence regarding jumps potential, although this does come in the form of Wishlon who finished third in the 1988 Christmas Hurdle as a novice. Though not yet granted the most powerful ammunition, the up and coming Rebecca Menzies has done well to date with her picking up black type with the £2,000 Fabianski, getting a win out of the 51 rated Tabou Beach Boy, having only one fall/unseat from thirty-four runs, and boasting an improvement rate of 55.55% (the highest in this field). The Churchill Lad looked as strong a juvenile prospect as any handled by his trainer and he made a near flawless start to his hurdling career at Cartmel four weeks ago. Backed into 15/8 having opened at 9/4, The Churchill Lad was held up last of four in a strongly ran race. He moved into third on passing the sticky toffee pudding shop and gained another position along the woodside before entering the final bend poised on the leader’s quarters. Jumping the last, The Churchill Lad held a lead of several lengths which was extended in no uncertain terms on the run-in before he was eased in the final hundred yards; crossing the line twenty-four and thirty-eight lengths to the good over his rivals. Quite what he achieved is difficult to ascertain as the front pair went off too quickly for their own good, the third was never at the races and the winning time was modest compared to everything else on the card. Nevertheless, The Churchill Lad travelled as well as any juvenile seen in Britain this season, and his hurdling was also up there as the only semblances of imperfection came when he was somewhat tight at the third, fifth and sixth. It is highly probable that he came close to the best of his performances on the level and shaped as though he would improve for the experience. The Churchill Lad does have a penalty to shoulder and also has a bit to find with a few rivals on flat form. Nevertheless, his experience at Cartmel should stand him in good stead here, the race could be ran to suit, and with the yard amongst the winners at Perth this week, The Churchill Lad holds decent prospects in a fairly weak renewal of this contest.
Just Another One bg Nigel Hawke f2-0-2 (-) 77
Vocalised (Galileo){1-x}(1.09) 1/2 Leagan Gaeilge 116 1st 3yo Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 2019
Nigel Hawke’s record with ex-Jim Bolger horses has been a topic covered on numerous occasions in my writing due to the uniquely impressive results. Outside of this dynamic Hawke’s winner-to-runner rate with juvenile hurdles stands at 9.09% while ex-Bolger juveniles have one of 20%. Nevertheless, of the eleven who have moved from Coolcullen to Thorne Farm seven found the winners’ enclosure. What makes this arrangement all the more intriguing is that it constitutes part a journey which ultimately leads to the Keri Brion and the American jumps programme; as trodden by the likes of Historic Heart, Boulette, Theocrat and Peat Moss. This season’s class began with I Have A Voice last week at Plumpton, and following on his hooves is Just Another One. Gelded in December and leaving Bolger’s to join Hawke in July, Just Another One first saw the racecourse in August for an uncompetitive five-runner Nottingham maiden held over an extended mile on good-to-firm. Drifting from a morning 20/1 to 66/1 at the off, Just Another One spent the early stages of the contest in rear and, at times, somewhat detached from the pack. He made headway to move into second at the distance and while he never stood a chance against the 85 rated long odds-on favourite, he comfortably held the remaining three to the tune of nearly four lengths. A fortnight later, he reappeared in a restricted ten-furlong maiden at Ffos Lass where he fluctuated in the market before starting at 33/1. He was sent into the lead before disputing at an even tempo. Responding to pressure two furlongs out, he was headed a furlong out and carried across the track by the 85 rated winner. Though he rallied, he ultimately went down by a neck and was probably flattered by the proximity. Nevertheless, the fourth and fifth each placed next time out and the form is amongst the stronger represented in this line-up. Sire Vocalised has a weak record in the sphere, with only one of his twenty-four juveniles managing a win from fifty-six outings. Nevertheless, that win did come from Just Another One’s niece/half-sister Leagan Gaeilge, who won her first and only start over hurdles; namely a moderate edition of the three-year-old maiden at Leopardstown’s festive meeting. However, the only others on the damline to try hurdling, full-brother San Aer and half-brother Advena, achieved little in the sphere. Juveniles trained by Nigel Hawke, regardless of where they were previously trained, seldom perform on their hurdling debuts; their first-time strike-rate standing at just 4.48%. He did win this with Nachi Falls in 2016, a dual winner having his fourth start, and saddled Tiger Roll to make a winning debut at the course in November 2013. Tiger Roll was an exception to many a rule and New Reality being gifted his debut win last term puts this record into further context. This is before one mentions that Hawke has had one win from forty-nine under both codes since June. While the unexposed and clearly capable Just Another One is an interesting recruit for the division, the yard’s recent form and overall record with newcomers tempers enthusiasm on this occasion.
Via Serica bg Stuart Edmunds f6-0-2 (63) 68 j1-0-1 (-) 51 60
Golden Horn (Nayef){14-a}(1.50) 2/2 Douglas Dc 126 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Tramore 2022
Since 2004/2005, three-hundred-and-eight British and Irish trainers have saddled ten or more juvenile hurdlers. Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have the strongest winner-to-runner rates, while in third place on 55.56% is Paul Nicholls. At the start of the current season, Stuart Edmunds held a share of third place with Paul Nicholls, although the poor debut showings of Rendition and Via Serica have seen his rate drop to a merely impressive 50%. The latter will be attempting to arrest this deterioration and redeem himself by giving the yard its second consecutive win in this race after Addosh took last year’s renewal. Starting his career with Brian Meehan, the entirety of Winter separated Via Serica’s first two outings which came in maidens at Nottingham in October over an extended mile, and Newbury in April over eleven furlongs. He was green on each occasion, finishing nearer last than first with upwards of thirteen lengths between himself and the winner. Thirteen lengths was also the margin of defeat in a ten-furlong Windsor maiden, although being a well stung out field where he was within a couple of lengths of two subsequent winners, it did mark a career best. Stepping up in trip and into handicap company in mid-May, Via Serica was a three length third over a mile and a half at Bath off 64; looking green under pressure but, incidentally, finishing ahead of the season’s leading juvenile to date in Mucuna. Sporting first-time cheekpieces, he filled the same position at Windsor five days later where he led briefly at the distance but while plugging on, did not appear to throw himself into every stride. This would be his last run out of Manton Lodge Stables; a yard whose graduates have a fair winner-to-runner rate of 19.05% in juvenile hurdles, and a lesser 33.33% improvement rate. He was withdrawn prior to passing through Tattersalls at Ascot – the twelve such juveniles leaving Brian Meehan in this fashion won one race from forty-four starts. Via Serica’s debut for Stuart Edmunds (winless on the flat since December 2016) came at Sandown over a mile and six where he never left the rear, drifted when making his challenge at the distance before weakening late on to finish six lengths behind the runner-up (the well-handicapped winner in a different league). Via Serica has a feasible pedigree for the sphere with Golden Horn showing a 25% winner-to-runner rate, cousin Douglas Dc winning a maiden juvenile, and four relatives at 3/2 on the damline (Mikado, Bombyx, National Trust and Freedom Now) all successful over jumps. Via Serica’s hurdles bow came over this course and distance eight weeks ago in a three-runner contest where he was the best treated on official flat ratings. However, there were also concerns over his lack of jumps experience, questionable resolve and poor stable form. Though these concerns were not sufficient in preventing his shortening from 3/1 to 6/4 in the ring, they manifested on the track in no uncertain terms. Tracking the favourite for much of the contest, his early jumping was acceptable save for his clipping the first. However, after flattening the fourth, he had to be ridden into the next and was in trouble when hitting the last in the straight. Though he just about held on along the turn for home, his effort completely flattened out at the three furlong marker from where he was relegated into third, jumped the last two in the fashion of a tired horse and finished completely tailed off. While the Edmunds yard has gone a month without any winners, its runners over the past fortnight have been reaching the frame and it would be safe to assume that they are past the worst of their cold spell. Via Serica should be able to draw a line through his hurdles bow, although he would still need to prove that the experience did not leave a lasting impression and even at his best, his chances would not be profoundly obvious in this company.
Cape Helles bf Donald McCain f5-1-0 (73) 77
Australia (Danehill Dancer){6-e}(0.63) 0.5 Evening Hush 129 2nd Finale Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Chepstow 2016
As far as juvenile hurdling damlines are concerned, Cape Helles possesses one of the more appropriate ones for the division. Half-sister Evening Hush finished second in the Grade One Finale Hurdle, cousin Wolf Prince finished second in the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle, and another cousin, Sonoran Sands, won twice in the sphere. Basalt (2/1), Fleeting Moment (2/2), Sayeh (3/1) and Hired Hand (3/1) are other successful closely-related jumpers. Sire Australia also has a solid record in the division with a 25% winner-to-runner rate from his first three crops. The only newcomer with winning flat form in this line-up, Cape Helles was unraced as a two-year-old and started her career in a Newcastle maiden over a mile in March. Starting at 20/1, she was unsuited by the trip and pace, but emerged with some credit in failing by a short-head to grab third. The following month at Haydock over the same trip, she ran to a similar level but was unable to take advantage of her prominent position at the head of a muddling pace; fading to finish a nine-length seventh behind Nashwa. Cape Helles broke her duck at the third time of asking in a nine-furlong Carlisle maiden towards the end of May. The subject of strong support throughout the day, starting at 17/2 having been 50/1 during the morning, Cape Helles broke well and while having to be niggled along early on, was able to race in a handy position. Turning for home within striking range, she took the lead off the better travelling favourite approaching the final furlong and stayed on to hold her rival by three-quarters of a length at the line. Though Cape Helles showed a likeable attitude in front, the runner-up almost certainly failed to give best. While the remainder of the field were upwards of five lengths behind, the performance did not warrant a rating of 77 and this played out in her two subsequent outings in handicap company. She was not disgraced at Ripon next time as despite her being beaten seven lengths, raced prominently in a strongly run race from which the first and third won next time out. However, she did finish weakly when last seen ten weeks ago when an eight length last of five at Doncaster in a twelve furlong fillies’ contest. Cape Helles spent her flat career with Donald McCain, and is set to become the twelfth such horse to go juvenile hurdling; among which she is the third highest rated behind Navajo Pass (85) and Goobinator (82). Three of the previous eleven won during their juvenile campaigns (the two aforementioned along with the 63 rated Ormesher) and all three would also do so at the first time of asking. Based on the yard’s record with self-trained hurdling newcomers, the ten week absence is not a major concern; even if that record improves with race fitness. Cape Helles has plenty going for her on pedigree and is not harshly treated on these terms. Furthermore, Donald McCain’s record with juvenile newcomers at Market Rasen stands at two wins and three placings from eleven and with the yard absolutely flying at the moment, a good showing would come as no surprise.
Exciting News bf Dan Skelton f4-0-2 (75) 81
Night Of Thunder (Pivotal){9-f}(1.17) 3/2 Whisper Cool 108 1st 3-Y-O Hurdle, Killarney 2010
Similar to the Bolger-Hawke connection, but probably more famous, is that between the Gredleys and Dan Skelton. While its roots potentially began with Rock Of Leon and The Raven Master, each formerly with Michael Bell prior to winning as juveniles for Skelton, the successful connection was showcased at the highest level when Allmankind won at Cheltenham and Chepstow before finishing third in the Triumph. Since then, Stepney Causeway and Too Friendly (ex-George Scott) would become useful multiple winners with only once-raced Nevendon failing to win. In Exciting News, the trend of Gredley horses joining Dan Skelton from Michael Bell is set to continue this term. Exciting News made her racecourse debut in a ten furlong fillies’ novice stakes at Wetherby in April. Racing keenly towards the rear, she was nearer last than first when asked for her effort at the three furlong marker. Though she hung under pressure, the penny did drop inside the final furlong as she made a couple of places to finish runner-up to Lingfield Oaks trial winner Rogue Millennium by a length and a half. The third also went on to win three of her next five outings and a mark surpassing 80 would not be unreasonable for this performance. However, she failed to build on that promise next time in an Ascot maiden where she folded very tamely inside the final two furlongs having subsequently been found in season. Given a five week break, she returned for a fillies’ maiden at Nottingham over an extended mile for which she halved in price to 5/2 through the day before settling at 3/1 in the ring. Racing keenly once again, she tracked the Godolphin pair throughout and while they pulled five clear of Exciting News, she herself was upwards of three and a half lengths ahead of the remainder; although everything in behind was well beaten on its next outing. Exciting News was last seen at the beginning of August making her handicap debut over an extended mile at Beverley. Racing off 77 and with only one behind her in the market at 18/1, she pulled herself into a clear lead which she held to the furlong pole before fading to finish a four-and-a-half-length fifth. Dan Skelton has a fine record in the division overall, with a winner-to-runner rate of 37.93% and a healthy improvement rate of 54.76%. He has also fared well at this venue, counting three winning juveniles from twelve, although the yard has not been busy as of late with its first runner since the seventh of this month finishing weakly at Worcester. Exciting News does not possess the most substantial pedigree, with her sire, Night Of Thunder being largely untested. A son of Dubawi (who as a grandsire has a fair 16.9% winner-to-runner rate, and a weak improvement rate of 21.28%), Night Of Thunder has yet to have winning juvenile, but has had his first winning hurdler, and being of an average height, his overall profile neither obviously positive nor negative at this juncture. The third dam of Exciting News is the granddam of the winning juvenile Whisper Cool, although all other descendants to have tried hurdling have done so without success. On account of her connections and the promise of her Wetherby debut, the decently sized Exciting News provokes interest as a juvenile recruit. However, while Market Rasen can favour front-runners, her free running nature and likely freshness following her absence will go against her at this stage of her education.
Jewel Of Kabeir bf Adrian Paul Keatley f3-0-1 (65) 68
El Kabeir (Lemon Drop Kid){9-e}(2.08) 2/1 Waaheb 146 2nd Future Champions Novice Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2012
Adrian Paul Keatley has saddled just one winning juvenile from thirteen, and she would not win until her third outing. His latest runner, Jewel Of Kabeir, has just about the weakest flat form in this field and that is based on a stand out performance last time out. Beaten eighteen lengths on her debut at Wolverhampton last December, she returned towards the end of June to finish a thirteen length eighth of ten in a Thirsk novice stakes over a mile. The latter was not without a modicum of promise, but it was not enough to prevent her going off the 80/1 outsider of five in a similar contest at Pontefract some six weeks ago. Held up in rear, she was still in touch with the field approaching the final furlong and while the winner had bolted clear, Jewel Of Kabeir managed to thread through the pack to grab second in the dying strides, just over five lengths behind the winner. The pace was quite strong but not to the extent that would give a ready explanation for Jewel Of Kabeir’s improvement. While the remainder of the field were all rated in the seventies, it is likely that given how easily the winner scored, most underperformed on the day. First season stallion El Kabeir is from a Scat Daddy/Johannesburg line which has enjoyed little success in the sphere. El Kabir was a graded – rather than top class – miler in America, and while his height of 16.1hh is adequate, his DI of 5.86 is a concern. The damline offers much more encouragement, however, as uncle Waaheb was very useful on his day and the third dam produced three multiple winners in Mutakarrim, Ghaabesh and Daasij as well as the dam of high-class juvenile Power Elite. Jewel Of Kebeir is still unexposed, and if her Pontefract second can be taken at face value then she has the ability to perform at an average level in this division. The distaff side of her pedigree offers further encouragement although with the yard’s record in the division, and its recent form across all racing, Jewel Of Kabeir may be one for the longer term.
Strong prospects
1. The Churchill Lad
Reasonable prospects
2. Cape Helles
Feasible prospects
3. Exciting News
Moderate prospects
4. Just Another One
5. Via Serica
6. Jewel Of Kabeir
Negligible prospects
.
Set in the town rumoured to be the subject of Elton John’s “Saturday Night’s Alright For Fighting”, Market Rasen is a fairly tight, right handed circuit with minor undulations. Favouring sharper sorts, its average winners’ DIs of 1.27 median, 1.68 mean, are some of the highest in the country and while they drop for this particular contest, this would be more due to class correlation than any real stamina requirements; the average winner’s seasonal RPR being eight pounds higher than in other races at the venue. The clear round rate of 95.72% is fractionally below the national average although it does see more juveniles pull up than standard. Previous winners have an impact value of 1.79 in this race although while newcomers can struggle to jump around the venue, they are historically at no discernible disadvantage in this race. The ground is currently riding as good and has been watered to maintained with little to no rain is forecast before post time. A few of these have made the running on the flat, including a free-running sort who did so over an extended mile last time out. Without being particularly strong or searching, the pace should at least be honest.
The Churchill Lad bg Rebecca Menzies f6-1-0 (67) 72 j1-1-0 (-) 101 103
Churchill (Discreetly Mine){20-a}(0.71) 5/2 Wishlon 158 3rd Christmas Hurdle, Kempton 1988
Representing the first crop of Churchill and coming from the family of Jack Sullivan (2/1) and Seventh Heaven (2/3), The Churchill Lad commanded 105,000 guineas as a foal and 130,000 guineas as a yearling before joining the Joseph O’Brien. Starting his career last December, his first three outings came in successive months wherein he finished sixth in Dundalk maidens on each occasion. He was largely undone by inexperience first time out and his second outing can be forgiven due to a very slow start. Stepping up to ten furlongs for his final Irish engagement, The Churchill Lad raced in close order, but was done by a lack of pace in the closing stages; finishing just over four lengths behind the winner. The Churchill Lad was entered for the Tattersalls Online Sale in March, but was withdrawn beforehand in order to join Rebecca Menzies. There can be a degree of caution when it comes to those let go by Joseph O’Brien as of the eighteen to have left Owning Hill, just two would win as juveniles. That being said, Menzies may be an exception to this trend as the promising Hasty Brook has at least maintained his form, and The Churchill Lad has shown no signs of regression since moving to Howe Hills. He was initially set to take in the season’s curtain raiser at Hexham in June, but was instead redirected to Haydock for a ten furlong handicap off 67. Having his first start on turf, he once again fell asleep in the stalls and racing off a sound pace, was still bringing up the rear turning into the straight. Met with traffic issues three furlongs out, he had to be brought wide to make his effort and though green under pressure, ran on to snatch fourth in the final strides. He started at 33/1 for his next outing at Newcastle later in June, but was still fairly disappointing in a first time hood where, having raced keenly for much of the contest, was unable to quicken in a race which benefited those at the head of affairs. Nevertheless, after missing engagements at Carlisle and Wolverhampton, The Churchill Lad was able to break his duck at the sixth time of asking when returning to Newcastle for a two mile handicap in mid-August. Held up behind the field while taking a keen hold, he was shaken up approaching the distance whereafter he picked off his rivals one-by-one. Under a strong drive, he caught the clear leader at the furlong pole and though the idling rival was spurred on by the new challenge, The Churchill Lad pulled out extra towards the finish to prevail by a decisive neck; the pair finishing nine lengths clear of the strung out remainder. Much of what can be discerned from The Churchill Lad’s pedigree insofar as his hurdling prospects are concerned would have been based on conjecture. The Churchill Lad was Churchill’s first runner over jumps, and there are no national hunt horses nearby on the predominantly American damline. Notwithstanding, Churchill’s prospects are not without merit for this vocation. Winner of the National and Dewhurst stakes at two before landing the English and Irish Guineas double, Churchill did finish second in the International but was not wholly proven beyond a mile. While he is out of Galileo, the damline is not entirely conducive to stamina, with full-sister Clemmie restricted to eight furlongs, and granddam Airwave being a very fast mare. Nevertheless, Churchill’s full-brother Blenheim Palace stayed at least eleven furlongs, and his height of 16.2hh, and overall class, will be positives in this endeavour. The distaff side provides only one piece of distance evidence regarding jumps potential, although this does come in the form of Wishlon who finished third in the 1988 Christmas Hurdle as a novice. Though not yet granted the most powerful ammunition, the up and coming Rebecca Menzies has done well to date with her picking up black type with the £2,000 Fabianski, getting a win out of the 51 rated Tabou Beach Boy, having only one fall/unseat from thirty-four runs, and boasting an improvement rate of 55.55% (the highest in this field). The Churchill Lad looked as strong a juvenile prospect as any handled by his trainer and he made a near flawless start to his hurdling career at Cartmel four weeks ago. Backed into 15/8 having opened at 9/4, The Churchill Lad was held up last of four in a strongly ran race. He moved into third on passing the sticky toffee pudding shop and gained another position along the woodside before entering the final bend poised on the leader’s quarters. Jumping the last, The Churchill Lad held a lead of several lengths which was extended in no uncertain terms on the run-in before he was eased in the final hundred yards; crossing the line twenty-four and thirty-eight lengths to the good over his rivals. Quite what he achieved is difficult to ascertain as the front pair went off too quickly for their own good, the third was never at the races and the winning time was modest compared to everything else on the card. Nevertheless, The Churchill Lad travelled as well as any juvenile seen in Britain this season, and his hurdling was also up there as the only semblances of imperfection came when he was somewhat tight at the third, fifth and sixth. It is highly probable that he came close to the best of his performances on the level and shaped as though he would improve for the experience. The Churchill Lad does have a penalty to shoulder and also has a bit to find with a few rivals on flat form. Nevertheless, his experience at Cartmel should stand him in good stead here, the race could be ran to suit, and with the yard amongst the winners at Perth this week, The Churchill Lad holds decent prospects in a fairly weak renewal of this contest.
Just Another One bg Nigel Hawke f2-0-2 (-) 77
Vocalised (Galileo){1-x}(1.09) 1/2 Leagan Gaeilge 116 1st 3yo Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 2019
Nigel Hawke’s record with ex-Jim Bolger horses has been a topic covered on numerous occasions in my writing due to the uniquely impressive results. Outside of this dynamic Hawke’s winner-to-runner rate with juvenile hurdles stands at 9.09% while ex-Bolger juveniles have one of 20%. Nevertheless, of the eleven who have moved from Coolcullen to Thorne Farm seven found the winners’ enclosure. What makes this arrangement all the more intriguing is that it constitutes part a journey which ultimately leads to the Keri Brion and the American jumps programme; as trodden by the likes of Historic Heart, Boulette, Theocrat and Peat Moss. This season’s class began with I Have A Voice last week at Plumpton, and following on his hooves is Just Another One. Gelded in December and leaving Bolger’s to join Hawke in July, Just Another One first saw the racecourse in August for an uncompetitive five-runner Nottingham maiden held over an extended mile on good-to-firm. Drifting from a morning 20/1 to 66/1 at the off, Just Another One spent the early stages of the contest in rear and, at times, somewhat detached from the pack. He made headway to move into second at the distance and while he never stood a chance against the 85 rated long odds-on favourite, he comfortably held the remaining three to the tune of nearly four lengths. A fortnight later, he reappeared in a restricted ten-furlong maiden at Ffos Lass where he fluctuated in the market before starting at 33/1. He was sent into the lead before disputing at an even tempo. Responding to pressure two furlongs out, he was headed a furlong out and carried across the track by the 85 rated winner. Though he rallied, he ultimately went down by a neck and was probably flattered by the proximity. Nevertheless, the fourth and fifth each placed next time out and the form is amongst the stronger represented in this line-up. Sire Vocalised has a weak record in the sphere, with only one of his twenty-four juveniles managing a win from fifty-six outings. Nevertheless, that win did come from Just Another One’s niece/half-sister Leagan Gaeilge, who won her first and only start over hurdles; namely a moderate edition of the three-year-old maiden at Leopardstown’s festive meeting. However, the only others on the damline to try hurdling, full-brother San Aer and half-brother Advena, achieved little in the sphere. Juveniles trained by Nigel Hawke, regardless of where they were previously trained, seldom perform on their hurdling debuts; their first-time strike-rate standing at just 4.48%. He did win this with Nachi Falls in 2016, a dual winner having his fourth start, and saddled Tiger Roll to make a winning debut at the course in November 2013. Tiger Roll was an exception to many a rule and New Reality being gifted his debut win last term puts this record into further context. This is before one mentions that Hawke has had one win from forty-nine under both codes since June. While the unexposed and clearly capable Just Another One is an interesting recruit for the division, the yard’s recent form and overall record with newcomers tempers enthusiasm on this occasion.
Via Serica bg Stuart Edmunds f6-0-2 (63) 68 j1-0-1 (-) 51 60
Golden Horn (Nayef){14-a}(1.50) 2/2 Douglas Dc 126 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Tramore 2022
Since 2004/2005, three-hundred-and-eight British and Irish trainers have saddled ten or more juvenile hurdlers. Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have the strongest winner-to-runner rates, while in third place on 55.56% is Paul Nicholls. At the start of the current season, Stuart Edmunds held a share of third place with Paul Nicholls, although the poor debut showings of Rendition and Via Serica have seen his rate drop to a merely impressive 50%. The latter will be attempting to arrest this deterioration and redeem himself by giving the yard its second consecutive win in this race after Addosh took last year’s renewal. Starting his career with Brian Meehan, the entirety of Winter separated Via Serica’s first two outings which came in maidens at Nottingham in October over an extended mile, and Newbury in April over eleven furlongs. He was green on each occasion, finishing nearer last than first with upwards of thirteen lengths between himself and the winner. Thirteen lengths was also the margin of defeat in a ten-furlong Windsor maiden, although being a well stung out field where he was within a couple of lengths of two subsequent winners, it did mark a career best. Stepping up in trip and into handicap company in mid-May, Via Serica was a three length third over a mile and a half at Bath off 64; looking green under pressure but, incidentally, finishing ahead of the season’s leading juvenile to date in Mucuna. Sporting first-time cheekpieces, he filled the same position at Windsor five days later where he led briefly at the distance but while plugging on, did not appear to throw himself into every stride. This would be his last run out of Manton Lodge Stables; a yard whose graduates have a fair winner-to-runner rate of 19.05% in juvenile hurdles, and a lesser 33.33% improvement rate. He was withdrawn prior to passing through Tattersalls at Ascot – the twelve such juveniles leaving Brian Meehan in this fashion won one race from forty-four starts. Via Serica’s debut for Stuart Edmunds (winless on the flat since December 2016) came at Sandown over a mile and six where he never left the rear, drifted when making his challenge at the distance before weakening late on to finish six lengths behind the runner-up (the well-handicapped winner in a different league). Via Serica has a feasible pedigree for the sphere with Golden Horn showing a 25% winner-to-runner rate, cousin Douglas Dc winning a maiden juvenile, and four relatives at 3/2 on the damline (Mikado, Bombyx, National Trust and Freedom Now) all successful over jumps. Via Serica’s hurdles bow came over this course and distance eight weeks ago in a three-runner contest where he was the best treated on official flat ratings. However, there were also concerns over his lack of jumps experience, questionable resolve and poor stable form. Though these concerns were not sufficient in preventing his shortening from 3/1 to 6/4 in the ring, they manifested on the track in no uncertain terms. Tracking the favourite for much of the contest, his early jumping was acceptable save for his clipping the first. However, after flattening the fourth, he had to be ridden into the next and was in trouble when hitting the last in the straight. Though he just about held on along the turn for home, his effort completely flattened out at the three furlong marker from where he was relegated into third, jumped the last two in the fashion of a tired horse and finished completely tailed off. While the Edmunds yard has gone a month without any winners, its runners over the past fortnight have been reaching the frame and it would be safe to assume that they are past the worst of their cold spell. Via Serica should be able to draw a line through his hurdles bow, although he would still need to prove that the experience did not leave a lasting impression and even at his best, his chances would not be profoundly obvious in this company.
Cape Helles bf Donald McCain f5-1-0 (73) 77
Australia (Danehill Dancer){6-e}(0.63) 0.5 Evening Hush 129 2nd Finale Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Chepstow 2016
As far as juvenile hurdling damlines are concerned, Cape Helles possesses one of the more appropriate ones for the division. Half-sister Evening Hush finished second in the Grade One Finale Hurdle, cousin Wolf Prince finished second in the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle, and another cousin, Sonoran Sands, won twice in the sphere. Basalt (2/1), Fleeting Moment (2/2), Sayeh (3/1) and Hired Hand (3/1) are other successful closely-related jumpers. Sire Australia also has a solid record in the division with a 25% winner-to-runner rate from his first three crops. The only newcomer with winning flat form in this line-up, Cape Helles was unraced as a two-year-old and started her career in a Newcastle maiden over a mile in March. Starting at 20/1, she was unsuited by the trip and pace, but emerged with some credit in failing by a short-head to grab third. The following month at Haydock over the same trip, she ran to a similar level but was unable to take advantage of her prominent position at the head of a muddling pace; fading to finish a nine-length seventh behind Nashwa. Cape Helles broke her duck at the third time of asking in a nine-furlong Carlisle maiden towards the end of May. The subject of strong support throughout the day, starting at 17/2 having been 50/1 during the morning, Cape Helles broke well and while having to be niggled along early on, was able to race in a handy position. Turning for home within striking range, she took the lead off the better travelling favourite approaching the final furlong and stayed on to hold her rival by three-quarters of a length at the line. Though Cape Helles showed a likeable attitude in front, the runner-up almost certainly failed to give best. While the remainder of the field were upwards of five lengths behind, the performance did not warrant a rating of 77 and this played out in her two subsequent outings in handicap company. She was not disgraced at Ripon next time as despite her being beaten seven lengths, raced prominently in a strongly run race from which the first and third won next time out. However, she did finish weakly when last seen ten weeks ago when an eight length last of five at Doncaster in a twelve furlong fillies’ contest. Cape Helles spent her flat career with Donald McCain, and is set to become the twelfth such horse to go juvenile hurdling; among which she is the third highest rated behind Navajo Pass (85) and Goobinator (82). Three of the previous eleven won during their juvenile campaigns (the two aforementioned along with the 63 rated Ormesher) and all three would also do so at the first time of asking. Based on the yard’s record with self-trained hurdling newcomers, the ten week absence is not a major concern; even if that record improves with race fitness. Cape Helles has plenty going for her on pedigree and is not harshly treated on these terms. Furthermore, Donald McCain’s record with juvenile newcomers at Market Rasen stands at two wins and three placings from eleven and with the yard absolutely flying at the moment, a good showing would come as no surprise.
Exciting News bf Dan Skelton f4-0-2 (75) 81
Night Of Thunder (Pivotal){9-f}(1.17) 3/2 Whisper Cool 108 1st 3-Y-O Hurdle, Killarney 2010
Similar to the Bolger-Hawke connection, but probably more famous, is that between the Gredleys and Dan Skelton. While its roots potentially began with Rock Of Leon and The Raven Master, each formerly with Michael Bell prior to winning as juveniles for Skelton, the successful connection was showcased at the highest level when Allmankind won at Cheltenham and Chepstow before finishing third in the Triumph. Since then, Stepney Causeway and Too Friendly (ex-George Scott) would become useful multiple winners with only once-raced Nevendon failing to win. In Exciting News, the trend of Gredley horses joining Dan Skelton from Michael Bell is set to continue this term. Exciting News made her racecourse debut in a ten furlong fillies’ novice stakes at Wetherby in April. Racing keenly towards the rear, she was nearer last than first when asked for her effort at the three furlong marker. Though she hung under pressure, the penny did drop inside the final furlong as she made a couple of places to finish runner-up to Lingfield Oaks trial winner Rogue Millennium by a length and a half. The third also went on to win three of her next five outings and a mark surpassing 80 would not be unreasonable for this performance. However, she failed to build on that promise next time in an Ascot maiden where she folded very tamely inside the final two furlongs having subsequently been found in season. Given a five week break, she returned for a fillies’ maiden at Nottingham over an extended mile for which she halved in price to 5/2 through the day before settling at 3/1 in the ring. Racing keenly once again, she tracked the Godolphin pair throughout and while they pulled five clear of Exciting News, she herself was upwards of three and a half lengths ahead of the remainder; although everything in behind was well beaten on its next outing. Exciting News was last seen at the beginning of August making her handicap debut over an extended mile at Beverley. Racing off 77 and with only one behind her in the market at 18/1, she pulled herself into a clear lead which she held to the furlong pole before fading to finish a four-and-a-half-length fifth. Dan Skelton has a fine record in the division overall, with a winner-to-runner rate of 37.93% and a healthy improvement rate of 54.76%. He has also fared well at this venue, counting three winning juveniles from twelve, although the yard has not been busy as of late with its first runner since the seventh of this month finishing weakly at Worcester. Exciting News does not possess the most substantial pedigree, with her sire, Night Of Thunder being largely untested. A son of Dubawi (who as a grandsire has a fair 16.9% winner-to-runner rate, and a weak improvement rate of 21.28%), Night Of Thunder has yet to have winning juvenile, but has had his first winning hurdler, and being of an average height, his overall profile neither obviously positive nor negative at this juncture. The third dam of Exciting News is the granddam of the winning juvenile Whisper Cool, although all other descendants to have tried hurdling have done so without success. On account of her connections and the promise of her Wetherby debut, the decently sized Exciting News provokes interest as a juvenile recruit. However, while Market Rasen can favour front-runners, her free running nature and likely freshness following her absence will go against her at this stage of her education.
Jewel Of Kabeir bf Adrian Paul Keatley f3-0-1 (65) 68
El Kabeir (Lemon Drop Kid){9-e}(2.08) 2/1 Waaheb 146 2nd Future Champions Novice Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2012
Adrian Paul Keatley has saddled just one winning juvenile from thirteen, and she would not win until her third outing. His latest runner, Jewel Of Kabeir, has just about the weakest flat form in this field and that is based on a stand out performance last time out. Beaten eighteen lengths on her debut at Wolverhampton last December, she returned towards the end of June to finish a thirteen length eighth of ten in a Thirsk novice stakes over a mile. The latter was not without a modicum of promise, but it was not enough to prevent her going off the 80/1 outsider of five in a similar contest at Pontefract some six weeks ago. Held up in rear, she was still in touch with the field approaching the final furlong and while the winner had bolted clear, Jewel Of Kabeir managed to thread through the pack to grab second in the dying strides, just over five lengths behind the winner. The pace was quite strong but not to the extent that would give a ready explanation for Jewel Of Kabeir’s improvement. While the remainder of the field were all rated in the seventies, it is likely that given how easily the winner scored, most underperformed on the day. First season stallion El Kabeir is from a Scat Daddy/Johannesburg line which has enjoyed little success in the sphere. El Kabir was a graded – rather than top class – miler in America, and while his height of 16.1hh is adequate, his DI of 5.86 is a concern. The damline offers much more encouragement, however, as uncle Waaheb was very useful on his day and the third dam produced three multiple winners in Mutakarrim, Ghaabesh and Daasij as well as the dam of high-class juvenile Power Elite. Jewel Of Kebeir is still unexposed, and if her Pontefract second can be taken at face value then she has the ability to perform at an average level in this division. The distaff side of her pedigree offers further encouragement although with the yard’s record in the division, and its recent form across all racing, Jewel Of Kabeir may be one for the longer term.
Strong prospects
1. The Churchill Lad
Reasonable prospects
2. Cape Helles
Feasible prospects
3. Exciting News
Moderate prospects
4. Just Another One
5. Via Serica
6. Jewel Of Kabeir
Negligible prospects
.
Colin
At the Start
Another epic analysis.
Bachelors Hall
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Apologies for dropping off the radar. Rather annoyingly, work and general life are not bedfellows of exhaustive research projects. The past few races have also been fairly bobbins but that's by the by. Nevertheless, tomorrow's contest at Wetherby was well worth a three-quarter-arsed essay 
Jump racing returns to Wetherby with the fixture featuring a juvenile hurdle that has been present on the card since the early eighties. Since 2004, its average winner’s seasonal best RPR of 105.7 has been nearly a stone below standard and has seldom had much bearing on the future. Nevertheless, fairly useful sorts in Simply Gifted and Mixsterthetrixter made their jumps debuts in the contest during the nineties, with Poker de Sivola and King d’Argent also being introduced in subsequent renewals. The race is also a springboard for the Wensleydale Hurdle later in the month, although of the thirty-two to take in both races, only Aviation (eighth in the 2005 running) would go on to land perhaps the weakest ever edition of that contest. This year’s renewal could be above-average as it pits the unbeaten The Churchill Lad against Milton Harris’ most expensive juvenile hurdler seen to date. A flat, galloping track, the West Yorkshire venue’s average winning DI of 1.26 is close to standard, although the clear round rate of 94.6% is the fourth lowest in Britain. Experience is a useful asset in this particular contest, with newcomers having a 6.35% strike rate compared to 10.53% for those with a run under their girths; although this gap is not especially pronounced across all races at the course. The going is currently described as good, good to firm in places with a chance of light rain falling before post time. None of the seven runners are habitual pacesetters and though a couple have raced fairly enthusiastically, the gallop is unlikely to be overly taxing.
The Churchill Lad bg Rebecca Menzies f6-1-0 (67) 72 j1-1-0 (-) 101 103
Churchill (Discreetly Mine){20-a}(0.71) 5/2 Wishlon 158 3rd Christmas Hurdle, Kempton 1988
Representing the first crop of Churchill and coming from the family of Jack Sullivan (2/1) and Seventh Heaven (2/3), The Churchill Lad commanded 105,000 guineas as a foal and 130,000 guineas as a yearling before joining the Joseph O’Brien. Starting his career last December, his first three outings came in successive months wherein he finished sixth in Dundalk maidens on each occasion. He was largely undone by inexperience first time out and his second outing can be forgiven due to a very slow start. Stepping up to ten furlongs for his final Irish engagement, The Churchill Lad raced in close order, but was done by a lack of pace in the closing stages; finishing just over four lengths behind the winner. The Churchill Lad was entered for the Tattersalls Online Sale in March, but was withdrawn beforehand in order to join Rebecca Menzies. There can be a degree of caution when it comes to those let go by Joseph O’Brien as of the eighteen to have left Owning Hill, just two would win as juveniles. That being said, Menzies may be an exception to this trend as the promising Hasty Brook has at least maintained his form, and The Churchill Lad has shown no signs of regression since moving to Howe Hills. He was initially set to take in the season’s curtain raiser at Hexham in June, but was instead redirected to Haydock for a ten furlong handicap off 67. Having his first start on turf, he once again fell asleep in the stalls and racing off a sound pace, was still bringing up the rear turning into the straight. Met with traffic issues three furlongs out, he had to be brought wide to make his effort and though green under pressure, ran on to snatch fourth in the final strides. He started at 33/1 for his next outing at Newcastle later in June, but was still fairly disappointing in a first time hood where, having raced keenly for much of the contest, was unable to quicken in a race which benefited those at the head of affairs. Nevertheless, after missing engagements at Carlisle and Wolverhampton, The Churchill Lad was able to break his duck at the sixth time of asking when returning to Newcastle for a two mile handicap in mid-August. Held up behind the field while taking a keen hold, he was shaken up approaching the distance whereafter he picked off his rivals one-by-one. Under a strong drive, he caught the clear leader at the furlong pole and though the idling rival was spurred on by the new challenge, The Churchill Lad pulled out extra towards the finish to prevail by a decisive neck; the pair finishing nine lengths clear of the strung out remainder. Much of what can be discerned from The Churchill Lad’s pedigree insofar as his hurdling prospects are concerned would have been based on conjecture. The Churchill Lad was Churchill’s first runner over jumps, and there are no national hunt horses nearby on the predominantly American damline. Notwithstanding, Churchill’s prospects are not without merit for this vocation. Winner of the National and Dewhurst stakes at two before landing the English and Irish Guineas double, Churchill did finish second in the International but was not wholly proven beyond a mile. While he is out of Galileo, the damline is not entirely conducive to stamina, with full-sister Clemmie restricted to eight furlongs, and granddam Airwave being a very fast mare. Nevertheless, Churchill’s full-brother Blenheim Palace stayed at least eleven furlongs, and his height of 16.2hh, and overall class, will be positives in this endeavour. The distaff side provides only one piece of distance evidence regarding jumps potential, although this does come in the form of Wishlon who finished third in the 1988 Christmas Hurdle as a novice. Though not yet granted the most powerful ammunition, the up and coming Rebecca Menzies has done well to date with her picking up black type with the £2,000 Fabianski, getting a win out of the 51 rated Tabou Beach Boy, having only one fall/unseat from thirty-four runs, and boasting an improvement rate of 55.55% (the highest in this field). The Churchill Lad looked as strong a juvenile prospect as any handled by his trainer and he made a near flawless start to his hurdling career at Cartmel six weeks ago. Backed into 15/8 having opened at 9/4, The Churchill Lad was held up last of four in a strongly ran race. He moved into third on passing the sticky toffee pudding shop and gained another position along the woodside before entering the final bend poised on the leader’s quarters. Jumping the last, The Churchill Lad held a lead of several lengths which was extended in no uncertain terms on the run-in before he was eased in the final hundred yards; crossing the line twenty-four and thirty-eight lengths to the good over his rivals. Quite what he achieved is difficult to ascertain as the front pair went off too quickly for their own good, the third was never at the races and the winning time was modest compared to everything else on the card. Nevertheless, The Churchill Lad travelled as well as any juvenile seen in Britain this season, and his hurdling was also up there as the only semblances of imperfection came when he was somewhat tight at the third, fifth and sixth. It is highly probable that he came close to the best of his performances on the level and shaped as though he would improve for the experience. The Churchill Lad does have a penalty to shoulder and on these terms, the interesting Highland Frolic is a stone well in on flat form. That pre-race exuberance cost him his taking part in a Market Rasen contest a fortnight ago is also a concern, the race is not certain to be run to suit and the yard has yet to have a winner from fifteen this month. Nevertheless, his experience at Cartmel should stand him in good stead here and he is the only proven winner in this line-up on either code so an honest showing is not difficult to envisage.
Ballynaveen Boy grg Sam Allwood f7-0-0 (44) 49
El Kabeir (Oasis Dream){4-m}(3.00) 0.5 Demi Plie 134 1st 2m4f Mares Handicap Chase (127), Fairyhouse 2019
Sam Allwood has yet to saddle a winning juvenile hurdler from six, El Kabeir has yet to produce one from four, and the 44 rated Ballynaveen Boy is not an obvious candidate to buck those trends. Beaten by over a dozen lengths in six of his seven flat outings, and only once running close to his BHA mark, the only glimmer of optimism appears on the damline. Distantly related to Enable (4/2), he is a half-brother to the fairly useful mare Demi Plie (by Mastercraftsman) and the third dam produced three useful winning jumpers in Tandem, Gallant Light and Porgy.
Highland Frolic bg Milton Harris f4-0-1 (73) 81
Highland Reel (Nayef){4-n}(0.82) 2/1 Trebizond 112 1st 1m7½f Maiden Hurdle, Roscommon 2021
Since returning from an enforced sabbatical, Milton Harris has made an art of both training and sourcing juvenile hurdlers. Without spending more than 27,000 guineas at public sale, he has saddled ten winning juveniles from twenty-three including his first Grade One winner in Knight Salute last season. This success has instilled both confidence and ambition in his owners which manifested in four juveniles being recruited over the summer for sums exceeding £50,000. The first of these to jump a hurdle is set to be Highland Frolic; a maiden who left John Gosden with a BHA rating of 73. Juvenile hurdlers who started their careers at Clarehaven tend not to set the division alight with their winner to runner rate a fair 16.67%, and a modest improvement rate of 21.74%. Nevertheless, Milton Harris has thus far bucked that trend with both his ex-Gosden recruits, Pyramid Place and Aliomaana, winning multiple races. Incidentally, the former was the most expensive recruit for the yard prior to the recent spree. Gelded prior to seeing the racecourse and sporting blinkers first time out, Highland Frolic made his debut in a Haydock novice stakes over a near mile and a half back in April. Starting at twice his morning show of 6/1, he was held up in rear off a very modest tempo and found himself caught napping when the race picked up entering the straight. Nevertheless, despite running green having been given plenty to do, he made good ground inside the distance and though unable to reach the front pair, ran on well to finish a length and a half third; splitting a pair of next time out winners. He ran no kind of race next time at Yarmouth where he was a drifter in the market before finishing completely tailed off. Highland Frolic was more stable in the market for his next appearance a fortnight later in a twelve furlong Salisbury maiden. Ridden out of the stalls with purpose, he set a strong pace and though he was off the bridle half a mile from home, he held his position until approaching the distance whereafter he fell into a near six length fifth. Making the switch into handicap company when last seen some four months ago at Doncaster, Highland Frolic was given a mark of 74. An awkward start forced a reversion to more conservative tactics behind a steady gallop, although while he was in a decent enough position in the straight, he was unable to make any real impression on the contest as he plugged on for a near six-length fourth. Nevertheless, the form has worked out well for the level, with the second, third and fifth winning over the next couple of months. Being a half-brother to Palace Pier, neither his breeding nor yearling price tag of 320,000 guineas suggested a juvenile hurdling campaign was a goal for Highland Frolic. Nevertheless, the pedigree is not wholly inconsistent with his new venture as Highland Reel has made a fine start in the sphere, with half of his four hurdlers to date winning, and the other half placing. Uncle Trebizond also won a maiden at four years old while another, Burns Night, would also land a modest staying handicap hurdle later in his career. Since 2018, the sole Milton Harris juvenile sent to Wetherby was Wensleydale runner-up Genuflex, and Highland Frolic will be the yard’s sole runner on the card. Lack of experience is always a factor for newcomers, although Milton Harris has a fine record in this regard as attested by the fact that five of his twenty juveniles since 2018 scored first time, and none fifty-six since 2004 has fallen or unseated. Highland Frolic is a patently interesting recruit to the sphere and has plenty of positives in his profile, although racecourse evidence does suggest that he may benefit from a solid pace which is not a given here.
John The Pirate brg Philip Kirby Unraced
Mondialiste (Dalakhani){7-a}(0.51) 3/1 Ashnaya 115 1st 2m7½f Novice Chase, Wetherby 2005
Philip Kirby has a solid winner-to-runner rate of 26.32% with juvenile hurdlers, although his first time strike rate is just 6.25%. John The Pirate is set to make his racecourse debut in a juvenile hurdle, and such horses have a strike-rate of just 2.40% first time out. None of the yard’s five previously unraced juveniles managed a win during their initial campaigns. He is part of Mondialiste’s first crop of jumpers, which currently has a record of one fall and one unplaced from two starts. Standing at a decent 16.1hh, the globetrotting Mondialiste won his first race at four before landing the Woodbine Mile and Arlington Million as well as finishing third in the Prix Jean Prat. Though a son of Galileo, whose winner to runner rate as a grandsire is a decent 27.6%, Mondialiste’s nephew Intello has had one winning juvenile from eight with none improving on their flat form. John The Pirate’s imminent damline consists of several maidens of little note, although cousin Richard Strauss, along with Ashnaya (3/1) did win over jumps and the class increases further out with Contraband (3/2), High Ransom (3/2), Royal Gait (4/2) and Lieutenant Miller (4/5). Hungarian super sprinter Overdose also appears at 3/2.
Robin Goodfellow bg Tracy Waggott f6-0-0 (42) 45
Dark Angel (Kingmambo){22-b}(1.08) 0.5 Ruggero 0 PU 2m Novices’ Hurdle, Warwick 2015
Born a Godolphin horse but failing to run in the blue colours, Robin Goodfellow joined Tracy Waggott for 14,000 guineas at Tattersalls in May. In six outings since May, at distances ranging from a mile to a mile and six, his best effort was a plodding on fifth of nine off 46 in a ferociously run Musselburgh handicap. His yard has yet to have a winning juvenile from fourteen having twenty-nine starts between them. Dark Angel’s record is solid in the division but the damline is without any winning jumper before Rosodeaux at 5/3. One half-brother pulled up on both outings over hurdles, but another, Buratino, has sired a couple of winners in the sphere.
Run At Dawn chg Nigel Hawke f2-0-0 (-) 60
Dawn Approach (Teofilo){13-c}(0.45) 1/0 Ringside Humour 123 4th 2m½f Mares Novice Hurdle, Punchestown 2017
Nigel Hawke’s record with ex-Jim Bolger horses has been a topic covered on numerous occasions in my writing due to the uniquely impressive results. Outside of this dynamic Hawke’s winner-to-runner rate with juvenile hurdles stands at 9.09% while ex-Bolger juveniles have one of 20%. Nevertheless, of the eleven who have moved from Coolcullen to Thorne Farm seven found the winners’ enclosure. What makes this arrangement all the more intriguing is that it constitutes part a journey which ultimately leads to the Keri Brion and the American jumps programme; as trodden by the likes of Boulette, Theocrat, Peat Moss and, the winner of this very contest in 2020, Historic Heart. Furthermore, the Nigel Hawke yard has a record of two winners from five in Wetherby juveniles. However, the yard’s first time strike rate stands at just 4.41%, and the Wetherby winners already had plenty of experience; Pola Chance was making his seventh appearance over hurdles, and Historic Heart his fourth. The latest Bolger-Hawke-America candidate is Run At Dawn who made his racecourse debut for Hawke at Ffos Las in early August in a heavy ground maiden over an extended seven furlongs. Though far too green to do himself justice, he still outran his 80/1 SP when eventually figuring out how to go in a straight line to finish a seven and a half length third. He returned to the former coal mine later than month, but weakened to finish fifth over ten furlongs. Though his dam was a fair novice hurdler, Run At Dawn has a modest pedigree for the sphere overall. Sire Dawn Approach has had just one winning juvenile from seventeen, and the nearest winner on the damline is Concetta at 5/5. Run At Dawn is unexposed and does provoke some curiosity, although his profile is not sufficiently substantial to warrant considerable attention first time out.
Vintage Valley grg Donald McCain f3-0-0 (65) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 87 85
Mastercraftsman (Araafa){1-i}(1.50) 2/2 Genuflex 106 2nd Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2021
In 2011, Hollow Tree left Andrew Balding to join Donald McCain for who he won three races as a juvenile including the Grade One Finale Hurdle. Since then, two other juveniles failed to score having made that journey, although there is some evidence to suggest that Vintage Valley is capable of breaking that trend. A thrice raced maiden on the flat, Vintage Valley shaped with some promise on his debut at Haydock in April when running green and lacking the pace to better fifth in a steadily run mile and a half contest. He failed to show on his return to that venue the following month, but probably matched the form of his debut when fifth of eight at Chepstow back in June. After fetching £32,000 at the Tattersalls Ascot Sale in July, Vintage Valley made his hurdling debut at Sedgefield a fortnight ago in the same contest McCain introduced Genever Dragon to make a winning debut two years ago. On breeding, there is plenty of encouragement in the pedigree for the game. Mastercraftsman is one of the most successful sires of juveniles and along with Genuflex, he is also a cousin of Gendarme and Good Prince, as well as a nephew of Ginistrelli. Starting at 10/1, he was much easier in the market of the two Fyffe runners, although the other was rated eighteen pounds superior on the flat and already had a run over hurdles to his name. Leading early before getting a lead in the straight first time round, he disputed going out onto the second circuit before a tight jump at the last in the back saw him lose ground. Well behind by the time they turned for home, Vintage Valley merely got the better of a scrap with a 100/1 outsider for a twenty-nine length fourth. Apart from tight jumps at the first, and the same flight on the second circuit, he posted a fair round of jumping; albeit with a tendency to go towards his left. The bare form of Vintage Valley’s debut is modest, but he shapes as though he ought to improve in due course. Notwithstanding, the leading pair have more substance about them and with McCain having won only two from thirty with juveniles at Wetherby, there will be better opportunities later in the season.
Strong prospects
1. Highland Frolic
2. The Churchill Lad
Feasible/Moderate prospects
3. Vintage Valley
4. Run At Dawn
Negligible prospects
5. John The Pirate
6. Ballynaveen Boy
7. Robin Goodfellow
Jump racing returns to Wetherby with the fixture featuring a juvenile hurdle that has been present on the card since the early eighties. Since 2004, its average winner’s seasonal best RPR of 105.7 has been nearly a stone below standard and has seldom had much bearing on the future. Nevertheless, fairly useful sorts in Simply Gifted and Mixsterthetrixter made their jumps debuts in the contest during the nineties, with Poker de Sivola and King d’Argent also being introduced in subsequent renewals. The race is also a springboard for the Wensleydale Hurdle later in the month, although of the thirty-two to take in both races, only Aviation (eighth in the 2005 running) would go on to land perhaps the weakest ever edition of that contest. This year’s renewal could be above-average as it pits the unbeaten The Churchill Lad against Milton Harris’ most expensive juvenile hurdler seen to date. A flat, galloping track, the West Yorkshire venue’s average winning DI of 1.26 is close to standard, although the clear round rate of 94.6% is the fourth lowest in Britain. Experience is a useful asset in this particular contest, with newcomers having a 6.35% strike rate compared to 10.53% for those with a run under their girths; although this gap is not especially pronounced across all races at the course. The going is currently described as good, good to firm in places with a chance of light rain falling before post time. None of the seven runners are habitual pacesetters and though a couple have raced fairly enthusiastically, the gallop is unlikely to be overly taxing.
The Churchill Lad bg Rebecca Menzies f6-1-0 (67) 72 j1-1-0 (-) 101 103
Churchill (Discreetly Mine){20-a}(0.71) 5/2 Wishlon 158 3rd Christmas Hurdle, Kempton 1988
Representing the first crop of Churchill and coming from the family of Jack Sullivan (2/1) and Seventh Heaven (2/3), The Churchill Lad commanded 105,000 guineas as a foal and 130,000 guineas as a yearling before joining the Joseph O’Brien. Starting his career last December, his first three outings came in successive months wherein he finished sixth in Dundalk maidens on each occasion. He was largely undone by inexperience first time out and his second outing can be forgiven due to a very slow start. Stepping up to ten furlongs for his final Irish engagement, The Churchill Lad raced in close order, but was done by a lack of pace in the closing stages; finishing just over four lengths behind the winner. The Churchill Lad was entered for the Tattersalls Online Sale in March, but was withdrawn beforehand in order to join Rebecca Menzies. There can be a degree of caution when it comes to those let go by Joseph O’Brien as of the eighteen to have left Owning Hill, just two would win as juveniles. That being said, Menzies may be an exception to this trend as the promising Hasty Brook has at least maintained his form, and The Churchill Lad has shown no signs of regression since moving to Howe Hills. He was initially set to take in the season’s curtain raiser at Hexham in June, but was instead redirected to Haydock for a ten furlong handicap off 67. Having his first start on turf, he once again fell asleep in the stalls and racing off a sound pace, was still bringing up the rear turning into the straight. Met with traffic issues three furlongs out, he had to be brought wide to make his effort and though green under pressure, ran on to snatch fourth in the final strides. He started at 33/1 for his next outing at Newcastle later in June, but was still fairly disappointing in a first time hood where, having raced keenly for much of the contest, was unable to quicken in a race which benefited those at the head of affairs. Nevertheless, after missing engagements at Carlisle and Wolverhampton, The Churchill Lad was able to break his duck at the sixth time of asking when returning to Newcastle for a two mile handicap in mid-August. Held up behind the field while taking a keen hold, he was shaken up approaching the distance whereafter he picked off his rivals one-by-one. Under a strong drive, he caught the clear leader at the furlong pole and though the idling rival was spurred on by the new challenge, The Churchill Lad pulled out extra towards the finish to prevail by a decisive neck; the pair finishing nine lengths clear of the strung out remainder. Much of what can be discerned from The Churchill Lad’s pedigree insofar as his hurdling prospects are concerned would have been based on conjecture. The Churchill Lad was Churchill’s first runner over jumps, and there are no national hunt horses nearby on the predominantly American damline. Notwithstanding, Churchill’s prospects are not without merit for this vocation. Winner of the National and Dewhurst stakes at two before landing the English and Irish Guineas double, Churchill did finish second in the International but was not wholly proven beyond a mile. While he is out of Galileo, the damline is not entirely conducive to stamina, with full-sister Clemmie restricted to eight furlongs, and granddam Airwave being a very fast mare. Nevertheless, Churchill’s full-brother Blenheim Palace stayed at least eleven furlongs, and his height of 16.2hh, and overall class, will be positives in this endeavour. The distaff side provides only one piece of distance evidence regarding jumps potential, although this does come in the form of Wishlon who finished third in the 1988 Christmas Hurdle as a novice. Though not yet granted the most powerful ammunition, the up and coming Rebecca Menzies has done well to date with her picking up black type with the £2,000 Fabianski, getting a win out of the 51 rated Tabou Beach Boy, having only one fall/unseat from thirty-four runs, and boasting an improvement rate of 55.55% (the highest in this field). The Churchill Lad looked as strong a juvenile prospect as any handled by his trainer and he made a near flawless start to his hurdling career at Cartmel six weeks ago. Backed into 15/8 having opened at 9/4, The Churchill Lad was held up last of four in a strongly ran race. He moved into third on passing the sticky toffee pudding shop and gained another position along the woodside before entering the final bend poised on the leader’s quarters. Jumping the last, The Churchill Lad held a lead of several lengths which was extended in no uncertain terms on the run-in before he was eased in the final hundred yards; crossing the line twenty-four and thirty-eight lengths to the good over his rivals. Quite what he achieved is difficult to ascertain as the front pair went off too quickly for their own good, the third was never at the races and the winning time was modest compared to everything else on the card. Nevertheless, The Churchill Lad travelled as well as any juvenile seen in Britain this season, and his hurdling was also up there as the only semblances of imperfection came when he was somewhat tight at the third, fifth and sixth. It is highly probable that he came close to the best of his performances on the level and shaped as though he would improve for the experience. The Churchill Lad does have a penalty to shoulder and on these terms, the interesting Highland Frolic is a stone well in on flat form. That pre-race exuberance cost him his taking part in a Market Rasen contest a fortnight ago is also a concern, the race is not certain to be run to suit and the yard has yet to have a winner from fifteen this month. Nevertheless, his experience at Cartmel should stand him in good stead here and he is the only proven winner in this line-up on either code so an honest showing is not difficult to envisage.
Ballynaveen Boy grg Sam Allwood f7-0-0 (44) 49
El Kabeir (Oasis Dream){4-m}(3.00) 0.5 Demi Plie 134 1st 2m4f Mares Handicap Chase (127), Fairyhouse 2019
Sam Allwood has yet to saddle a winning juvenile hurdler from six, El Kabeir has yet to produce one from four, and the 44 rated Ballynaveen Boy is not an obvious candidate to buck those trends. Beaten by over a dozen lengths in six of his seven flat outings, and only once running close to his BHA mark, the only glimmer of optimism appears on the damline. Distantly related to Enable (4/2), he is a half-brother to the fairly useful mare Demi Plie (by Mastercraftsman) and the third dam produced three useful winning jumpers in Tandem, Gallant Light and Porgy.
Highland Frolic bg Milton Harris f4-0-1 (73) 81
Highland Reel (Nayef){4-n}(0.82) 2/1 Trebizond 112 1st 1m7½f Maiden Hurdle, Roscommon 2021
Since returning from an enforced sabbatical, Milton Harris has made an art of both training and sourcing juvenile hurdlers. Without spending more than 27,000 guineas at public sale, he has saddled ten winning juveniles from twenty-three including his first Grade One winner in Knight Salute last season. This success has instilled both confidence and ambition in his owners which manifested in four juveniles being recruited over the summer for sums exceeding £50,000. The first of these to jump a hurdle is set to be Highland Frolic; a maiden who left John Gosden with a BHA rating of 73. Juvenile hurdlers who started their careers at Clarehaven tend not to set the division alight with their winner to runner rate a fair 16.67%, and a modest improvement rate of 21.74%. Nevertheless, Milton Harris has thus far bucked that trend with both his ex-Gosden recruits, Pyramid Place and Aliomaana, winning multiple races. Incidentally, the former was the most expensive recruit for the yard prior to the recent spree. Gelded prior to seeing the racecourse and sporting blinkers first time out, Highland Frolic made his debut in a Haydock novice stakes over a near mile and a half back in April. Starting at twice his morning show of 6/1, he was held up in rear off a very modest tempo and found himself caught napping when the race picked up entering the straight. Nevertheless, despite running green having been given plenty to do, he made good ground inside the distance and though unable to reach the front pair, ran on well to finish a length and a half third; splitting a pair of next time out winners. He ran no kind of race next time at Yarmouth where he was a drifter in the market before finishing completely tailed off. Highland Frolic was more stable in the market for his next appearance a fortnight later in a twelve furlong Salisbury maiden. Ridden out of the stalls with purpose, he set a strong pace and though he was off the bridle half a mile from home, he held his position until approaching the distance whereafter he fell into a near six length fifth. Making the switch into handicap company when last seen some four months ago at Doncaster, Highland Frolic was given a mark of 74. An awkward start forced a reversion to more conservative tactics behind a steady gallop, although while he was in a decent enough position in the straight, he was unable to make any real impression on the contest as he plugged on for a near six-length fourth. Nevertheless, the form has worked out well for the level, with the second, third and fifth winning over the next couple of months. Being a half-brother to Palace Pier, neither his breeding nor yearling price tag of 320,000 guineas suggested a juvenile hurdling campaign was a goal for Highland Frolic. Nevertheless, the pedigree is not wholly inconsistent with his new venture as Highland Reel has made a fine start in the sphere, with half of his four hurdlers to date winning, and the other half placing. Uncle Trebizond also won a maiden at four years old while another, Burns Night, would also land a modest staying handicap hurdle later in his career. Since 2018, the sole Milton Harris juvenile sent to Wetherby was Wensleydale runner-up Genuflex, and Highland Frolic will be the yard’s sole runner on the card. Lack of experience is always a factor for newcomers, although Milton Harris has a fine record in this regard as attested by the fact that five of his twenty juveniles since 2018 scored first time, and none fifty-six since 2004 has fallen or unseated. Highland Frolic is a patently interesting recruit to the sphere and has plenty of positives in his profile, although racecourse evidence does suggest that he may benefit from a solid pace which is not a given here.
John The Pirate brg Philip Kirby Unraced
Mondialiste (Dalakhani){7-a}(0.51) 3/1 Ashnaya 115 1st 2m7½f Novice Chase, Wetherby 2005
Philip Kirby has a solid winner-to-runner rate of 26.32% with juvenile hurdlers, although his first time strike rate is just 6.25%. John The Pirate is set to make his racecourse debut in a juvenile hurdle, and such horses have a strike-rate of just 2.40% first time out. None of the yard’s five previously unraced juveniles managed a win during their initial campaigns. He is part of Mondialiste’s first crop of jumpers, which currently has a record of one fall and one unplaced from two starts. Standing at a decent 16.1hh, the globetrotting Mondialiste won his first race at four before landing the Woodbine Mile and Arlington Million as well as finishing third in the Prix Jean Prat. Though a son of Galileo, whose winner to runner rate as a grandsire is a decent 27.6%, Mondialiste’s nephew Intello has had one winning juvenile from eight with none improving on their flat form. John The Pirate’s imminent damline consists of several maidens of little note, although cousin Richard Strauss, along with Ashnaya (3/1) did win over jumps and the class increases further out with Contraband (3/2), High Ransom (3/2), Royal Gait (4/2) and Lieutenant Miller (4/5). Hungarian super sprinter Overdose also appears at 3/2.
Robin Goodfellow bg Tracy Waggott f6-0-0 (42) 45
Dark Angel (Kingmambo){22-b}(1.08) 0.5 Ruggero 0 PU 2m Novices’ Hurdle, Warwick 2015
Born a Godolphin horse but failing to run in the blue colours, Robin Goodfellow joined Tracy Waggott for 14,000 guineas at Tattersalls in May. In six outings since May, at distances ranging from a mile to a mile and six, his best effort was a plodding on fifth of nine off 46 in a ferociously run Musselburgh handicap. His yard has yet to have a winning juvenile from fourteen having twenty-nine starts between them. Dark Angel’s record is solid in the division but the damline is without any winning jumper before Rosodeaux at 5/3. One half-brother pulled up on both outings over hurdles, but another, Buratino, has sired a couple of winners in the sphere.
Run At Dawn chg Nigel Hawke f2-0-0 (-) 60
Dawn Approach (Teofilo){13-c}(0.45) 1/0 Ringside Humour 123 4th 2m½f Mares Novice Hurdle, Punchestown 2017
Nigel Hawke’s record with ex-Jim Bolger horses has been a topic covered on numerous occasions in my writing due to the uniquely impressive results. Outside of this dynamic Hawke’s winner-to-runner rate with juvenile hurdles stands at 9.09% while ex-Bolger juveniles have one of 20%. Nevertheless, of the eleven who have moved from Coolcullen to Thorne Farm seven found the winners’ enclosure. What makes this arrangement all the more intriguing is that it constitutes part a journey which ultimately leads to the Keri Brion and the American jumps programme; as trodden by the likes of Boulette, Theocrat, Peat Moss and, the winner of this very contest in 2020, Historic Heart. Furthermore, the Nigel Hawke yard has a record of two winners from five in Wetherby juveniles. However, the yard’s first time strike rate stands at just 4.41%, and the Wetherby winners already had plenty of experience; Pola Chance was making his seventh appearance over hurdles, and Historic Heart his fourth. The latest Bolger-Hawke-America candidate is Run At Dawn who made his racecourse debut for Hawke at Ffos Las in early August in a heavy ground maiden over an extended seven furlongs. Though far too green to do himself justice, he still outran his 80/1 SP when eventually figuring out how to go in a straight line to finish a seven and a half length third. He returned to the former coal mine later than month, but weakened to finish fifth over ten furlongs. Though his dam was a fair novice hurdler, Run At Dawn has a modest pedigree for the sphere overall. Sire Dawn Approach has had just one winning juvenile from seventeen, and the nearest winner on the damline is Concetta at 5/5. Run At Dawn is unexposed and does provoke some curiosity, although his profile is not sufficiently substantial to warrant considerable attention first time out.
Vintage Valley grg Donald McCain f3-0-0 (65) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 87 85
Mastercraftsman (Araafa){1-i}(1.50) 2/2 Genuflex 106 2nd Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2021
In 2011, Hollow Tree left Andrew Balding to join Donald McCain for who he won three races as a juvenile including the Grade One Finale Hurdle. Since then, two other juveniles failed to score having made that journey, although there is some evidence to suggest that Vintage Valley is capable of breaking that trend. A thrice raced maiden on the flat, Vintage Valley shaped with some promise on his debut at Haydock in April when running green and lacking the pace to better fifth in a steadily run mile and a half contest. He failed to show on his return to that venue the following month, but probably matched the form of his debut when fifth of eight at Chepstow back in June. After fetching £32,000 at the Tattersalls Ascot Sale in July, Vintage Valley made his hurdling debut at Sedgefield a fortnight ago in the same contest McCain introduced Genever Dragon to make a winning debut two years ago. On breeding, there is plenty of encouragement in the pedigree for the game. Mastercraftsman is one of the most successful sires of juveniles and along with Genuflex, he is also a cousin of Gendarme and Good Prince, as well as a nephew of Ginistrelli. Starting at 10/1, he was much easier in the market of the two Fyffe runners, although the other was rated eighteen pounds superior on the flat and already had a run over hurdles to his name. Leading early before getting a lead in the straight first time round, he disputed going out onto the second circuit before a tight jump at the last in the back saw him lose ground. Well behind by the time they turned for home, Vintage Valley merely got the better of a scrap with a 100/1 outsider for a twenty-nine length fourth. Apart from tight jumps at the first, and the same flight on the second circuit, he posted a fair round of jumping; albeit with a tendency to go towards his left. The bare form of Vintage Valley’s debut is modest, but he shapes as though he ought to improve in due course. Notwithstanding, the leading pair have more substance about them and with McCain having won only two from thirty with juveniles at Wetherby, there will be better opportunities later in the season.
Strong prospects
1. Highland Frolic
2. The Churchill Lad
Feasible/Moderate prospects
3. Vintage Valley
4. Run At Dawn
Negligible prospects
5. John The Pirate
6. Ballynaveen Boy
7. Robin Goodfellow
Colin
At the Start
Great work again, BH.
Bachelors Hall
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Thanks Colin
The "top prospects" have been doing miserably this season so am not sure how much of a handle I have on this year's bunch. I think the seconds are doing alright but I haven't really had a look. Would be happier if more was going as expected but for however dumb I can feel from time to time, at least I am not the genius who came up with this sort of race...
Junior “National Hunt” Hurdles are a dumb idea. In August, I wrote a piece about them and had I previewed the first race of its kind, which took place at Ffos Las last Sunday, I would have borrowed heavily from said piece. Since this is the first race of its kind that I will preview, I will just repost the whole thing; partially for posterity, and partially because apart from some misunderstanding of the race’s conditions, my view has stayed unchanged for the most part.
______________________________________________________________________________
This season will see the introduction of Junior National Hunt Development Hurdle Races. They will be open to juveniles that have not previously competed in a Flat race, or a Jump race except for a NH Flat or Junior National Hunt Development Hurdle Race. According to Richard Wayman of the BHA, their purpose is to provide “young jumping horses with the opportunity to start their careers at an earlier stage”. The idea, according to TBA’s Bryan Mayoh is that “Jump horses need to be broken and taught to jump earlier than has been traditional in Britain”.
As things currently stand, juvenile hurdles in Britain, that traditionally begin at Hexham on Epsom Derby Day, are the opportunity and there is nothing to prevent any trainer from breaking in horses and teaching them to jump in order to participate in these contests. Indeed, in Britain and Ireland since 2004/05, 1035 horses have made their first racecourse appearances as juvenile hurdlers while 643 entered the division having started in NH Flat races and a further 103 joined from the French AQPS division. There have also been 18 juvenile hurdlers during the tail end of the season from the point-to-point field. Whether these will be excluded from the new races is not clear although for what it is worth, none of them fared better than Cobaltic who finished second in a Wexford maiden in 2019 (incidentally, Seabass does form part of this very niche group).
The apparent issue is that the French bred youngsters with hurdling experience regularly outperform the homegrown talent, and this notion is played out in the statistics. During this period, there have been 504 such imports enter the division. Their winner-to-runner rate is 45.83%, their strike rate is 22.96% and 68.25% of these animals achieve RPRs exceeding 107 during their initial campaigns. These figures alone are useless without context, so their impact values compared to all juvenile hurdlers (1.00 being the standard) read as 2.51, 2.61 and 3.92 respectively. Naturally, the fact that many of the ex-French hurdlers will have already shown sufficient ability to warrant the expense of import will skew the figures, but that they are able to outperform the local horses to such a degree is still very notable.
There is another group of juveniles with even better figures, although these are flat recruits who were officially rated 100 and above. Given that this type is invariably the most expensive available through public sale, and is increasingly sent to race in warmer climes, their relevance would be of diminishing interest to breeders and organisers alike.
Insofar as those qualified to run in this new subdivision of juvenile hurdling are concerned, it would be useful to see how such types have fared over the years;
From this table, the most prominent finding is that if you want to win one of these races, simply buy a French bumper horse. This is perfectly fine for those who wish to mop up a few races which will be less competitive than open juvenile hurdles. However, quite how it resolves the issues this initiative sets out to remedy is another matter entirely. Furthermore, of the 72 unraced horses who won as juveniles, 28 of them were bred in France at a winner-to-runner rate of 16.67% (ahead of Germany – 8.33%, Britain – 6.49%, America – 6.25%, and Ireland – 4.60%). Among the sires of the unraced French bred winners were Discover d’Auteuil, Kapgarde and Maille Pistol, while the sires of ex-AQPS performers includes the likes of Buck’s Boum, Cokoriko, Dom Alco and Great Pretender before we even get past the G’s.
The direction of where this exposition is going is not very well hidden, but it is one rooted in fundamental breeding theory. If you want a precocious foal, you send a speedy mare to Dark Angel or No Nay Never. If you want a foal that will stay, then send a stout mare to Camelot or Nathaniel. If you want your foal to hold its form for a few years then maybe use Sea The Stars or Dubawi.
If you want a jumper who will win races as early as three, send a jumps mare to a stallion who did well over obstacles at an early age.
The common denominator among a sizable portion of successful young hurdlers in France is that their sires ran over hurdles themselves. The likes of Saint des Saints, Kapgarde, Turgeon, Balko and Great Pretender have been mainstays on the leading sire lists for over a generation while Cokoriko, Jeu St Eloi, Castle du Berlais (all by jumpers themselves), Choeur du Nord, Magneticjim and Gemix promise to perpetuate this precept for the foreseeable future.
The above notwithstanding, these Junior National Hunt Development Hurdle Races will be welcomed in this quarter; albeit purely as a novelty offshoot to the division rather than as an initiative that will make any discernible impact on the British jumps breeding industry. The solution to the dearth of young jumps talent produced by British breeders would be to stock more stallions with jumps experience. Simply buying existing stallions from France would be a short-cut but perhaps not one conducive to long term success. A more viable and sustainable option would be to encourage connections to keep their national hunt prospects entire. Rather admirably, this is being attempted by the Pitchall Stud in an effort to keep Midnight Legend’s legacy alive with Midnights Legacy. However, it is a hefty responsibility for one horse to carry on its shoulders. The mares’ side of the sport has seen an expansive proliferation of races and save for the festival’s mares’ hurdle detracting from several Champion Hurdles and Stayers Hurdles over the years, the positive results on the breed have been self-evident. An equivalent series of jumps contests for colts and horses would, at this juncture, suffer greatly from the shallow pool of possible participants. Nevertheless, if a significant bonus was offered to connections of an entire horse winning or even reaching the frame in a Grade One hurdle, that would most probably yield far greater results than this latest initiative.
______________________________________________________________________________
Regarding the bit within the conditions I misunderstood, it turns out that those who had raced prior to the 1st of October 2022 are not qualified. However, while it states that horses must not have ran in flat races, it is not clear whether Bumpers held since the start of this month are counted. Nor does it make any mention of a horse making a winning jumps debut in France since October (and it is worth noting that Auteuil and Cagnes-sur-Mer each host decent newcomers races during this time period).
In any event, the first one was held last Sunday and to the astonishment of absolutely nobody, there were just five declared runners, four were French bred and the rank outsider was an Irish bred by Milan who has not had a single winning juvenile from seventeen, out of a mare by Presenting who has one winner from twenty-two as a sire, and none from twenty-two as a damsire. The second edition has just four newcomers set to face the starter. Half are French bred, one is a flat bred who has an accidentally good pedigree for the sphere, and the other is the first runner over hurdles for an actual British based jumps sire; albeit a slow maturing staying type.
Quite how these races are supposed to strengthen the British national hunt breeding industry is anybody’s guess. Perhaps the genius in the programme’s design will stun us all in a decade’s time. But for now, it is just a stupid novelty which will serve no purpose beyond messing up my stats for unraced horses. Indeed, if any good horses do emerge, they can remain novices for next season provided they stick to three races. What a stupid, stupid idea. Newton Abbot is a tight track with its winning Dis putting it in the sharper third of racecourses. The going is currently good although light showers are forecast.
Him Malaya bg Paul Nicholls Unraced
Martaline (Kendor){12-e}(0.57) 1/1 Malaya 142 1st Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2017
Paul Nicholls is one of the most successful trainers of juvenile hurdlers around. Since 2004, he has trained 105 individual winning juveniles (second only to Alan King), earned £2.3 million (second only to Willie Mullins) and won Grade Ones with Adrien du Pont, All Yours, Celestial Halo, Monmiral, Quel Destin and Zarkandar. Many of his juvenile hurdlers have also gone on to become top class in the long term including Clan des Obeaux, Frodon, Twist Magic and Dodging Bullets. However, not once has he sent a horse out to make his racing debut in a juvenile hurdle. The closest to doing so has been with Grand Sancy who ran in a couple of “junior bumpers” in 2017 before a four race campaign which saw him twice finish second in novice hurdles before a well held fourth in the Adonis and his pulling up in the Fred Winter. Nevertheless, there will be few more appropriate juveniles for his first foray into this novelty sphere than Him Malaya. As his fairly witty name suggests, Him Malaya is a full-brother to Malaya; a filly who won the Listed Wensleydale Juvenile for the yard in 2017 before winning the juvenile handicap at Ascot later in the season and eventually landing the Imperial Cup. Malaya was very much an early sort as she took a three-year-old hurdle at Lyon in March (by thirty lengths) as well as the listed Prix d’Iena in May before moving to Ditcheat. However, she was also a useful fairly sort on the flat and thought good enough to run in listed company at two. Him Malaya is also an uncle of this season’s useful looking three-year-old hurdler Jac Jumper, his grandam was a good multiple winner over jumps while other capable relatives include Cladour (2/1), Daytona Beach AA (2/2) and Saint Charles (3/1). Martaline is one of the strongest French sires of three-year-old jumpers (34.69% winner to runner in his native country) and his exported juveniles have represented him well as per We Have A Dream, Riviere d’Etel and the aforementioned Malaya. None of his five unraced British or Irish juvenile debutants managed a win in eleven starts although his juvenile offspring are undefeated at Newton Abbot thanks to Hell Red. Paul Nicholls also has a solid record at the venue, boasting three wins and three placings from nine starts, and his overall stable form is strong at the moment.
Ice N Slice chg Kayley Woollacott Unraced
New Approach (Medicean){11-d}(0.60) 2/1 Thomas Hobson 158 1st Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Warwick 2016
Kayley Woollacott has yet to saddle a juvenile hurdler although her late husband did have seven run without success; including three who would have qualified for these races. Her first runner in the sphere is set to be Ice N Slice who, after fetching 105,000 guineas as a yearling, failed to see the racecourse for Jessica Harrington and was sold for just 5,500 guineas at the Tattersalls May Online sale. Those who Jessica Harrington eschews a juvenile hurdling career for the sales have just a 3.03% strike rate, although few will have more compelling pedigrees for the sphere. Sire New Approach has a fine winner to runner rate of 40.74% headed by useful multiple scorers in Stepney Causeway, Jaleo and last season’s top class Pied Piper (he is also two wins from three with juveniles at Newton Abbot). Ice N Slice is also a nephew of the talented Thomas Hobson and Fearless, while his third dam produced another classy type in Torpichen. Nevertheless, the tumbling sales prices and the trainer having a quiet spell (only recent runner failed to land gamble) limit appeal here.
Jupiter Allen chg Jane Williams Unraced
Castle du Berlais (Network){u}(0.23) 1/0 Bienvenue Allen 55.0 1st 3600m 45yo AQPS Mares Conditions Hurdle, Argentan 2016
Of all the British trainers who this series would have appealed to, there is no more obvious candidate than the George Nympton pairing of Nick and Jane Williams. While the woeful record of unraced newcomers is covered in the introduction, Nick and Jane Williams are something of an exception. Since 2004, they have had sixteen such horses win in the sphere (four doing so first-time-out), along with another five winners who were trained by the pair to make their debuts in France. Amongst these horses are graded winning juveniles Flying Tiger, Le Rocher and Me Voici, along with the top class pair of Fox Norton and Reve de Sivola. They naturally had a runner in the first race of its kind at Ffos Las, although that one ran out at the last while still competitive. Their second such runner is set to be Jupiter Allen who, in the spirit of firsts, is set to be the maiden British representative of first-crop sire Castle du Berlais (also mentioned in the intro). A son of Saint des Saints, Castle du Berlais has the type of pedigree one would expect in a French based jumps sire. A full-brother to the dam of Grade One winner Altesse du Berlais and Grade One placed Colbert du Berlais, he is a half-brother to Sire du Berlais, the son of another Grade One winning mare, and the nephew of Royal Rosa and Royal Atalza. During his brief racing career, he won two of eight starts including the Prix Roger de Minvielle; a listed chase for three-year-olds. His first season at stud has started well, with four winners from fifteen including the useful looking Goliath du Rheu and Chief Cove. Jupiter Allen’s damline has plenty of winning jumpers, although those nearby are not wholly precocious. His dam registered her sole success as a five-year-old while uncle Doll Allen and granddam Nadou won in cross country chases. There are earlier types from the third dam including Montreal (3/1), Eden Conti (3/2), Moissac (4/1), Mirande (4/1), Connetable (4/3) and Hemevoici (4/3). Any horse of this nature sent out by the yard will be of obvious interest and current stable form is better than numbers suggest. However, Newton Abbot is not the dour test that would probably bring out the best in Jupiter Allen.
Sailing Grace bf Anthony Honeyball Unraced
Dartmouth (Scorpion){1-w}(0.69) 1/0 War Creation 121 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (112), Haydock 2017
From the archetypal first-crop French jumps stallion to the fairly typical first-crop British jumps stallion. Dartmouth won a mile maiden at Sandown as a two year old, though he would spend all but the end of his three-year-old campaign handicapping. At four, he won the Ormonde and Hardwicke before placing in the King George and Canadian International, and his five-year-old campaign saw him win the Yorkshire Cup and fail by a nose to win the Lonsdale. Though he has had a flat winner (over twelve furlongs), Dartmouth has the hallmarks of a jumps stallion. A tall horse at 16.1hh, he is a half-brother to a hurdler who won his sole race at six, while Forgotten Voice, Idol’s Lad, Big Occasion (3/2) Flash Ball and Boarding School (4/2) also appear on his damline. Seven of the ten sons of Dubawi to have tried have produced winning juvenile hurdlers, although the combined winner runner rate is a fair 18.06%His first runner over jumps is set to be Sailing Grace who is out of a winning hurdler by Scorpion; another typical jumps sire who, though capable of producing top-class jumpers in Might Bite and Riders On the Storm, had an abysmal record with juvenile hurdlers – none of his sixteen winning from thirty starts between them. Sailing Grace is the niece of three other winning jumpers in Taniokey, Blazer’s Mill and On The Sixth Day, while Plaid Maid (5/3), Carruthers and Coneygree (5/4) are notable distant relatives. Anthony Honeyball is not a prolific trainer of juveniles although of the ten he has saddled, three were able to win with two doing so first time out. Sailing Grace has a reasonable profile for a national hunt horse, although based on most available evidence, “store horse” types tend not to make juvenile hurdlers.
Strong prospects
1. Him Malaya
Reasonable prospects
2. Jupiter Allen
Moderate prospects
3. Sailing Grace
4. Ice N Slice
The "top prospects" have been doing miserably this season so am not sure how much of a handle I have on this year's bunch. I think the seconds are doing alright but I haven't really had a look. Would be happier if more was going as expected but for however dumb I can feel from time to time, at least I am not the genius who came up with this sort of race...
Junior “National Hunt” Hurdles are a dumb idea. In August, I wrote a piece about them and had I previewed the first race of its kind, which took place at Ffos Las last Sunday, I would have borrowed heavily from said piece. Since this is the first race of its kind that I will preview, I will just repost the whole thing; partially for posterity, and partially because apart from some misunderstanding of the race’s conditions, my view has stayed unchanged for the most part.
______________________________________________________________________________
This season will see the introduction of Junior National Hunt Development Hurdle Races. They will be open to juveniles that have not previously competed in a Flat race, or a Jump race except for a NH Flat or Junior National Hunt Development Hurdle Race. According to Richard Wayman of the BHA, their purpose is to provide “young jumping horses with the opportunity to start their careers at an earlier stage”. The idea, according to TBA’s Bryan Mayoh is that “Jump horses need to be broken and taught to jump earlier than has been traditional in Britain”.
As things currently stand, juvenile hurdles in Britain, that traditionally begin at Hexham on Epsom Derby Day, are the opportunity and there is nothing to prevent any trainer from breaking in horses and teaching them to jump in order to participate in these contests. Indeed, in Britain and Ireland since 2004/05, 1035 horses have made their first racecourse appearances as juvenile hurdlers while 643 entered the division having started in NH Flat races and a further 103 joined from the French AQPS division. There have also been 18 juvenile hurdlers during the tail end of the season from the point-to-point field. Whether these will be excluded from the new races is not clear although for what it is worth, none of them fared better than Cobaltic who finished second in a Wexford maiden in 2019 (incidentally, Seabass does form part of this very niche group).
The apparent issue is that the French bred youngsters with hurdling experience regularly outperform the homegrown talent, and this notion is played out in the statistics. During this period, there have been 504 such imports enter the division. Their winner-to-runner rate is 45.83%, their strike rate is 22.96% and 68.25% of these animals achieve RPRs exceeding 107 during their initial campaigns. These figures alone are useless without context, so their impact values compared to all juvenile hurdlers (1.00 being the standard) read as 2.51, 2.61 and 3.92 respectively. Naturally, the fact that many of the ex-French hurdlers will have already shown sufficient ability to warrant the expense of import will skew the figures, but that they are able to outperform the local horses to such a degree is still very notable.
There is another group of juveniles with even better figures, although these are flat recruits who were officially rated 100 and above. Given that this type is invariably the most expensive available through public sale, and is increasingly sent to race in warmer climes, their relevance would be of diminishing interest to breeders and organisers alike.
Insofar as those qualified to run in this new subdivision of juvenile hurdling are concerned, it would be useful to see how such types have fared over the years;
From this table, the most prominent finding is that if you want to win one of these races, simply buy a French bumper horse. This is perfectly fine for those who wish to mop up a few races which will be less competitive than open juvenile hurdles. However, quite how it resolves the issues this initiative sets out to remedy is another matter entirely. Furthermore, of the 72 unraced horses who won as juveniles, 28 of them were bred in France at a winner-to-runner rate of 16.67% (ahead of Germany – 8.33%, Britain – 6.49%, America – 6.25%, and Ireland – 4.60%). Among the sires of the unraced French bred winners were Discover d’Auteuil, Kapgarde and Maille Pistol, while the sires of ex-AQPS performers includes the likes of Buck’s Boum, Cokoriko, Dom Alco and Great Pretender before we even get past the G’s.
The direction of where this exposition is going is not very well hidden, but it is one rooted in fundamental breeding theory. If you want a precocious foal, you send a speedy mare to Dark Angel or No Nay Never. If you want a foal that will stay, then send a stout mare to Camelot or Nathaniel. If you want your foal to hold its form for a few years then maybe use Sea The Stars or Dubawi.
If you want a jumper who will win races as early as three, send a jumps mare to a stallion who did well over obstacles at an early age.
The common denominator among a sizable portion of successful young hurdlers in France is that their sires ran over hurdles themselves. The likes of Saint des Saints, Kapgarde, Turgeon, Balko and Great Pretender have been mainstays on the leading sire lists for over a generation while Cokoriko, Jeu St Eloi, Castle du Berlais (all by jumpers themselves), Choeur du Nord, Magneticjim and Gemix promise to perpetuate this precept for the foreseeable future.
The above notwithstanding, these Junior National Hunt Development Hurdle Races will be welcomed in this quarter; albeit purely as a novelty offshoot to the division rather than as an initiative that will make any discernible impact on the British jumps breeding industry. The solution to the dearth of young jumps talent produced by British breeders would be to stock more stallions with jumps experience. Simply buying existing stallions from France would be a short-cut but perhaps not one conducive to long term success. A more viable and sustainable option would be to encourage connections to keep their national hunt prospects entire. Rather admirably, this is being attempted by the Pitchall Stud in an effort to keep Midnight Legend’s legacy alive with Midnights Legacy. However, it is a hefty responsibility for one horse to carry on its shoulders. The mares’ side of the sport has seen an expansive proliferation of races and save for the festival’s mares’ hurdle detracting from several Champion Hurdles and Stayers Hurdles over the years, the positive results on the breed have been self-evident. An equivalent series of jumps contests for colts and horses would, at this juncture, suffer greatly from the shallow pool of possible participants. Nevertheless, if a significant bonus was offered to connections of an entire horse winning or even reaching the frame in a Grade One hurdle, that would most probably yield far greater results than this latest initiative.
______________________________________________________________________________
Regarding the bit within the conditions I misunderstood, it turns out that those who had raced prior to the 1st of October 2022 are not qualified. However, while it states that horses must not have ran in flat races, it is not clear whether Bumpers held since the start of this month are counted. Nor does it make any mention of a horse making a winning jumps debut in France since October (and it is worth noting that Auteuil and Cagnes-sur-Mer each host decent newcomers races during this time period).
In any event, the first one was held last Sunday and to the astonishment of absolutely nobody, there were just five declared runners, four were French bred and the rank outsider was an Irish bred by Milan who has not had a single winning juvenile from seventeen, out of a mare by Presenting who has one winner from twenty-two as a sire, and none from twenty-two as a damsire. The second edition has just four newcomers set to face the starter. Half are French bred, one is a flat bred who has an accidentally good pedigree for the sphere, and the other is the first runner over hurdles for an actual British based jumps sire; albeit a slow maturing staying type.
Quite how these races are supposed to strengthen the British national hunt breeding industry is anybody’s guess. Perhaps the genius in the programme’s design will stun us all in a decade’s time. But for now, it is just a stupid novelty which will serve no purpose beyond messing up my stats for unraced horses. Indeed, if any good horses do emerge, they can remain novices for next season provided they stick to three races. What a stupid, stupid idea. Newton Abbot is a tight track with its winning Dis putting it in the sharper third of racecourses. The going is currently good although light showers are forecast.
Him Malaya bg Paul Nicholls Unraced
Martaline (Kendor){12-e}(0.57) 1/1 Malaya 142 1st Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2017
Paul Nicholls is one of the most successful trainers of juvenile hurdlers around. Since 2004, he has trained 105 individual winning juveniles (second only to Alan King), earned £2.3 million (second only to Willie Mullins) and won Grade Ones with Adrien du Pont, All Yours, Celestial Halo, Monmiral, Quel Destin and Zarkandar. Many of his juvenile hurdlers have also gone on to become top class in the long term including Clan des Obeaux, Frodon, Twist Magic and Dodging Bullets. However, not once has he sent a horse out to make his racing debut in a juvenile hurdle. The closest to doing so has been with Grand Sancy who ran in a couple of “junior bumpers” in 2017 before a four race campaign which saw him twice finish second in novice hurdles before a well held fourth in the Adonis and his pulling up in the Fred Winter. Nevertheless, there will be few more appropriate juveniles for his first foray into this novelty sphere than Him Malaya. As his fairly witty name suggests, Him Malaya is a full-brother to Malaya; a filly who won the Listed Wensleydale Juvenile for the yard in 2017 before winning the juvenile handicap at Ascot later in the season and eventually landing the Imperial Cup. Malaya was very much an early sort as she took a three-year-old hurdle at Lyon in March (by thirty lengths) as well as the listed Prix d’Iena in May before moving to Ditcheat. However, she was also a useful fairly sort on the flat and thought good enough to run in listed company at two. Him Malaya is also an uncle of this season’s useful looking three-year-old hurdler Jac Jumper, his grandam was a good multiple winner over jumps while other capable relatives include Cladour (2/1), Daytona Beach AA (2/2) and Saint Charles (3/1). Martaline is one of the strongest French sires of three-year-old jumpers (34.69% winner to runner in his native country) and his exported juveniles have represented him well as per We Have A Dream, Riviere d’Etel and the aforementioned Malaya. None of his five unraced British or Irish juvenile debutants managed a win in eleven starts although his juvenile offspring are undefeated at Newton Abbot thanks to Hell Red. Paul Nicholls also has a solid record at the venue, boasting three wins and three placings from nine starts, and his overall stable form is strong at the moment.
Ice N Slice chg Kayley Woollacott Unraced
New Approach (Medicean){11-d}(0.60) 2/1 Thomas Hobson 158 1st Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Warwick 2016
Kayley Woollacott has yet to saddle a juvenile hurdler although her late husband did have seven run without success; including three who would have qualified for these races. Her first runner in the sphere is set to be Ice N Slice who, after fetching 105,000 guineas as a yearling, failed to see the racecourse for Jessica Harrington and was sold for just 5,500 guineas at the Tattersalls May Online sale. Those who Jessica Harrington eschews a juvenile hurdling career for the sales have just a 3.03% strike rate, although few will have more compelling pedigrees for the sphere. Sire New Approach has a fine winner to runner rate of 40.74% headed by useful multiple scorers in Stepney Causeway, Jaleo and last season’s top class Pied Piper (he is also two wins from three with juveniles at Newton Abbot). Ice N Slice is also a nephew of the talented Thomas Hobson and Fearless, while his third dam produced another classy type in Torpichen. Nevertheless, the tumbling sales prices and the trainer having a quiet spell (only recent runner failed to land gamble) limit appeal here.
Jupiter Allen chg Jane Williams Unraced
Castle du Berlais (Network){u}(0.23) 1/0 Bienvenue Allen 55.0 1st 3600m 45yo AQPS Mares Conditions Hurdle, Argentan 2016
Of all the British trainers who this series would have appealed to, there is no more obvious candidate than the George Nympton pairing of Nick and Jane Williams. While the woeful record of unraced newcomers is covered in the introduction, Nick and Jane Williams are something of an exception. Since 2004, they have had sixteen such horses win in the sphere (four doing so first-time-out), along with another five winners who were trained by the pair to make their debuts in France. Amongst these horses are graded winning juveniles Flying Tiger, Le Rocher and Me Voici, along with the top class pair of Fox Norton and Reve de Sivola. They naturally had a runner in the first race of its kind at Ffos Las, although that one ran out at the last while still competitive. Their second such runner is set to be Jupiter Allen who, in the spirit of firsts, is set to be the maiden British representative of first-crop sire Castle du Berlais (also mentioned in the intro). A son of Saint des Saints, Castle du Berlais has the type of pedigree one would expect in a French based jumps sire. A full-brother to the dam of Grade One winner Altesse du Berlais and Grade One placed Colbert du Berlais, he is a half-brother to Sire du Berlais, the son of another Grade One winning mare, and the nephew of Royal Rosa and Royal Atalza. During his brief racing career, he won two of eight starts including the Prix Roger de Minvielle; a listed chase for three-year-olds. His first season at stud has started well, with four winners from fifteen including the useful looking Goliath du Rheu and Chief Cove. Jupiter Allen’s damline has plenty of winning jumpers, although those nearby are not wholly precocious. His dam registered her sole success as a five-year-old while uncle Doll Allen and granddam Nadou won in cross country chases. There are earlier types from the third dam including Montreal (3/1), Eden Conti (3/2), Moissac (4/1), Mirande (4/1), Connetable (4/3) and Hemevoici (4/3). Any horse of this nature sent out by the yard will be of obvious interest and current stable form is better than numbers suggest. However, Newton Abbot is not the dour test that would probably bring out the best in Jupiter Allen.
Sailing Grace bf Anthony Honeyball Unraced
Dartmouth (Scorpion){1-w}(0.69) 1/0 War Creation 121 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (112), Haydock 2017
From the archetypal first-crop French jumps stallion to the fairly typical first-crop British jumps stallion. Dartmouth won a mile maiden at Sandown as a two year old, though he would spend all but the end of his three-year-old campaign handicapping. At four, he won the Ormonde and Hardwicke before placing in the King George and Canadian International, and his five-year-old campaign saw him win the Yorkshire Cup and fail by a nose to win the Lonsdale. Though he has had a flat winner (over twelve furlongs), Dartmouth has the hallmarks of a jumps stallion. A tall horse at 16.1hh, he is a half-brother to a hurdler who won his sole race at six, while Forgotten Voice, Idol’s Lad, Big Occasion (3/2) Flash Ball and Boarding School (4/2) also appear on his damline. Seven of the ten sons of Dubawi to have tried have produced winning juvenile hurdlers, although the combined winner runner rate is a fair 18.06%His first runner over jumps is set to be Sailing Grace who is out of a winning hurdler by Scorpion; another typical jumps sire who, though capable of producing top-class jumpers in Might Bite and Riders On the Storm, had an abysmal record with juvenile hurdlers – none of his sixteen winning from thirty starts between them. Sailing Grace is the niece of three other winning jumpers in Taniokey, Blazer’s Mill and On The Sixth Day, while Plaid Maid (5/3), Carruthers and Coneygree (5/4) are notable distant relatives. Anthony Honeyball is not a prolific trainer of juveniles although of the ten he has saddled, three were able to win with two doing so first time out. Sailing Grace has a reasonable profile for a national hunt horse, although based on most available evidence, “store horse” types tend not to make juvenile hurdlers.
Strong prospects
1. Him Malaya
Reasonable prospects
2. Jupiter Allen
Moderate prospects
3. Sailing Grace
4. Ice N Slice
Bachelors Hall
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Up until 1996, Kempton’s first juvenile hurdle of the season had been known as the Riverdale – a name which survived from the sixties and predated the Ferry Boat Chase, Charisma Gold Cup and Captain Quist Hurdles. Though a contest with more ordinary renewals than good, it did launch the jumps careers of Broadsword, Barnbrook Again, Silver Wedge and Bring Sweets during the eighties and nineties, while Combermere and Runway Romance were other useful graduates during the period. In 2002, the finish was fought between hurdling newcomers Spectroscope and Nas Na Riogh; who would go on to win the Triumph and Finale Hurdles respectively, and last year, the Anniversary winner, Knight Salute, saw off Scottish Triumph hero Impulsive One. In between these editions, the race was also contested by the likes of Chief Yeoman, Trouble At Bay, Noble Request, Quel Destin, Cerium, Katies Tutor and All Set To Go. This year’s edition looks fair-to-middling at this juncture as while five of the seven are maidens, four have flat ratings higher than the average winner of the contest. The standard is set by Chepstow runner-up, Age Of Sail, who ran creditably in what was probably the best British juvenile seen to date, although Alan King has won this race five times and he introduces a 79 rated newcomer. Kempton is a flat, right handed circuit with a reputation of being a speedy track. However, it's winning DIs of 1.00 median, 1.22 mean are low compared to other courses (sixth lowest in Britain) as well as the beaten runners at the venue. Though stamina would theoretically become more of an issue on a testing surface, the figures for this contest (invariably ran on good ground) are consistent with the standard for the course. Clear round and completion rates are on the fairer side of average and though newcomers are at a slight disadvantage in this particular contest, their overall record at the venue shows little discernible difference. The going at Kempton is currently described as good, good to firm in places, and while watering will continue throughout Saturday, there is no rain forecast before post time. With only two instances of frontrunning in the field, the pace may not be especially strong.
Admiralty House chg Alan King f7-0-4 (79) 86
Sea The Stars (Tobougg){5-h}(1.00) 2/1 Enchanted Forest 133 3rd 2m Handicap Hurdle (120), Punchestown 2013
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 112 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. He boasts a 30% strike rate with juveniles at Kempton since 2004, with five winners coming in this contest. The yard’s record with debutants is two wins from five, those trained on the flat by himself is one from four, and those trained by himself making their hurdling debuts are zero from three. Notwithstanding, when it comes to all Alan King self-trained newcomers rated 70 and above, his record of 17 wins from 49 runs is both healthy and substantial. Admiralty House is such a horse, having earned a BHA mark of 79 during a seven race flat career at the yard. Costing 55,000 guineas at a two-year-old breeze-up, and gelded before seeing the track, Admiralty House finished third in a nine furlong Wolverhampton novice stakes in January before going one better at Chelmsford over ten furlongs the following month; getting within a length of King Edward VII runner-up Grand Alliance. Given a near four month break, he returned to finish a good second in a Salisbury maiden over a mile and a half, but pulled too hard for his own good at Newbury and, with the hood applied, at Wolverhampton. His penultimate start saw him post a career best in a ten furlong handicap at Newbury in mid-August. Racing off 76, he took a keen hold once again while held up off a strong pace, but finished strongly within the distance and got to within a head of Cracksman’s brother at the line. However, he reverted to type at Yarmouth when last seen a month ago when finishing last of ten at Yarmouth having pulled hard and raced awkwardly under pressure. A nephew of Dutch Art (who has a 4.08% strike rate 8.33% improvement rate as a juvenile sire), the damline of Admiralty House consists of maiden jumpers. Half-brother Combarro twice finished runner-up in claiming hurdles as a four-year-old while uncle Enchanted Forest did place in a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, but was still a twenty-three race maiden. Nevertheless, sire Sea The Stars is a positive attribute as per his winner to runner rate of 31.25% which includes Stars Over The Sea and Starchitect – the former landing this race on his hurdles debut in 2014. His progeny’s strike rate does improve form 9.38% first-time to 42.86% by the third run, but drops to 0% on the fourth run, highlighting the limitations of statistics. The yard and sire afford Admiralty House plenty of respect, although his inconsistency on the flat suggests that he might benefit from experience.
Age Of Sail bg Gary Moore f6-0-2 (76) 83 j1-0-1 (-) 108 113
Frankel (Pivotal){22-b}(1.06) 0.5 Polarisation 114 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2015
Gelded shortly after his sole outing for Godolphin, where he beat one home in a Goodwood maiden last September, Age Of Sail’s next public appearance came at the Tattersalls February Sale where he fetched 60,000 guineas and joined Joseph Parr. In the space of eighty-two days, running over distances between eight and twelve furlongs, Age Of Sail failed to breach the front two in five outings. Nevertheless, he was never beaten any more than three and a half lengths and ended his stint with a BHA mark of 76. Twice placing fourth in a Windsor maiden and Southwell novice, he ran on well to finish third off 77 on his handicap debut over ten furlongs at Sandown, and might have finished closer when squeezed out in the closing stages at Leicester over an extra two furlongs. His flat stint was capped with a solid enough fifth of fourteen at Newbury and his attentions were turned to hurdles as he moved to Gary Moore’s yard. Another successful trainer in the sphere, Moore has a winner-to-runner rate of 35.91% while sire Frankel has one of 31.25%. A nephew of Lammtarra, jumpers are thin on Age Of Sail’s damline as while half-brother Polarisation finished second on his sole run in the sphere, the nearest winners stem from the fourth dam in King Of The Picts (4/5), Noland (4/5) and Ruzzini (4/6). Introduced at Chepstow last Saturday, Age Of Sail was backed from 5/2 in the morning to 13/8 second-favourite at the off and spent much of the contest held up in fourth of the five runners. Taking closer order at the top of the straight, he briefly held a narrow lead approaching two out, and disputed until his being slow away from the last gave the initiative, and ultimately a near three-length victory to Alan King’s Tuddenham Green. His round was reasonable for a debutant, but there was still room for improvement as he was slow away from the same flight on the first circuit, stumbled on landing after the fourth and tight at the next two. The winning time was comparable to the “Free Handicap Hurdle” later on the card (which was more steadily ran) and the form is about as strong as anything seen in what has been a weak British division thus far. Age Of Sail sets the standard on the basis of his Chepstow outing and likely experience, although the record of Gary Moore juveniles at Kempton is a curious one as only one from fifty-two has won since 2004. That being said, he has also had three of the last four runners-up in the Adonis Hurdle.
Lark Lane bg Richenda Ford f17-0-3 (45) 56
Sixties Icon (Rip Van Winkle){1-n}(0.68) 3/1 Visibility 138 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Leicester 2003
With seventeen flat outings to his name, Lark Lane is by far the most experienced runner in this field. His official rating of 45 is also the lowest. The closest he came to winning was when headed near the line in a Leicester mile handicap off 46, although he has also placed third in selling company including when last seen at Ripon over ten furlongs at the end of August. Set to be the second juvenile trained by Richenda Ford, Lark Lane was formerly with Mick Channon whose ex-inmates have a 25.17% winner runner rate which drops to 19.64% when Sheena West juveniles are eliminated. Sixties Icon has a solid 22.45% winner to runner rate while the third dam produced winning juvenile Visibility as well as the dam of winning jumpers Vorashann and Vaziani. Lark Lane does not have the worst pedigree for the sphere, but his exposed flat ability and occasionally suspect attitude negate interest at this juncture.
Tartarus bg Alexandra Dunn f3-0-2 (71) 71
Ruler Of The World (Mark Of Esteem){14-b}(0.48) 2/2 Atalan 1st 3900m Premio Piero e Franco Richard Novices Chase (G3), Merano 2017
With only three runs to his name, Tartarus is the least expereinced runner in this field. He is also coming into the race off the longest break having not been seen since April. His debut came in a ten furlong Lingfield maiden in March where, having been supported from 7/1 to 3/1 raced close up but ran very green under pressure before finishing a length and three quarter second, nearly four lengths clear of the remainder. Tartarus ran a similar race to a similar level over the same course and distance at the end of the month, losing second on the line. His last flat outing came when an eleven length eighth of thirteen in a ten furlong Windsor novice where he was again green under pressure before fading in the final half-furlong. As the race was inundated with subsequent winners, the form would not have been far off his best, itself worth little more than his official mark of 71. This would be his final outing for Paul Cole, whose former inmates have a winner runner rate of 14.71%, and improvement rate of 33.33%. Fetching £14,000 at the Tattersalls Ascot May Sale, Tartarus has since joined an Alexandra Dunn whose improvement rate stands at 18.18%, with only one of her twenty-three juveniles finding the winners’ enclosure. Ruler Of The World has one winning juvenile from seven and Tartarus has a half-brother and three uncles that are maidens over hurdles; although cousins Atalan and Jewel de Cerisy have fair form on the continent while Converti won a three mile maiden at Worcester.
Trojan Horse chc Anthony Honeyball f9-2-3 (78) 88
Ulysses (Monsun){22-d}(0.58) 0.5 Guiri 125 1st 2m4½f Handicap Hurdle (113), Punchestown 2021
Anthony Honeyball does not train many juvenile hurdlers, although he has done well with those who have run for him. With Sailing Grace winning at Newton Abbot, he is now on four winners from eleven since 2011; three of these scoring first time out. His next is set to be Trojan Horse; a 78 rated dual winner formerly trained by Mark Johnston. Honeyball has had just one higher rated in Jukebox Jive, but Trojan Horse will be his highest rated recruit. While ex-Mark Johnstone recruits have a solid winner runner rate of 23.47%, only 29.82% improve for the switch in codes. Nevertheless, the sole juvenile to switch between the yards was the 50 rated Mister Allegro who won twice for Honeyball last term. After finishing a near six length third in a mile novice at York last October, Trojan Horse got off the mark at the second time of asking towards the end of that month with an easy win at Redcar from a high seventies rated performer. Returning in mid-April, Trojan Horse landed a cross-winter brace when taking a five runner novice stakes over twelve furlongs at Ripon on heavy ground. Racing keenly to the fore he hit the front three furlongs out and though ponderous under pressure, ran to the line with a bit to spare over three subsequent winners. Trojan Horse would not add to his tally in six outings, but apart from a Royal Ascot handicap, would still run consistently. He was last seen sixty-nine days ago in a twelve furlong handicap at Ripon where, having been rated 84 earlier in the season, was running off 78. Racing close up off a steady gallop, he was unable to match the winner for pace in the final couple of furlongs, but did keep on to pull upwards of three lengths clear of the remainder. He is set to be one of two runners for first-crop sire, Ulysses, who is off the mark with jumpers after Lincoln won in France. The winner of an International Stakes and an Eclipse, and third in the 2017 Arc, Ulysses boasts a classy and well-rounded profile. Out of Galileo and Oaks winner Light Shift, he comfortably has the stamina for the minimum trip over jumps and is also an adequate 16.1hh. His pedigree credentials are further supplemented by damline appearances of Champion Chaser Dodging Bullets (3/2) and Kingwell Hurdle winner Elgin (2/3). From the family of Guadalupe (2/1) and Royal Rebel (3/1) Trojan Horse is a half-brother to two winning jumpers in Guiri and Gambol as well as being a nephew of jumps sire Getaway. Damsire Monsun is also a positive, with his broodmares producing thirteen winning juveniles from thirty-six. The entire Trojan Horse might be a little fresh first time out, but he has a decent size about him and should have no trouble getting the trip so a decent showing would not be discounted.
Volenti bg Adam West f9-1-0 (50) 60
Estidhkaar (Mastercraftsman){8-c}(3.00) 3/1 Grapelli 60.0 1st 3700, Handicap Chase (56.0), Cagnes-dur-Mer 2004
The second of two winners in this field, but rated over a stone below Trojan Horse, Volenti gained his sole success in a seven furlong Epsom handicap in mid-July. Racing off 51, he was held up off a blistering gallop and traded at 180 at one stage, but kept on as the race fell apart and led in the final strides. Since then, he has not ran to within a stone of that performance in four outings; showing a tendency to pull hard and sweat freely in the process. Switched to hurdling, his pedigree offers mixed messages as while Mastercraftsman is looking as good a damsire as sire, and the third dam produced a winning chaser in France, Volenti’s sire Estidhkaar has yet to produce a winning juvenile from eight (with twenty-six attempts between them). Adam West enjoyed his first winning juvenile this term in Rolypolymoly, but has been struggling as of late.
Rendition chf Stuart Edmunds f5-0-1 (68) 73 j1-0-0 (-) 44 68
Ulysses (Pivotal){13-e}(0.85) 3/1 Poet 127 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Since 2004/2005, three-hundred-and-eight British and Irish trainers have saddled ten or more juvenile hurdlers. Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have the strongest winner-to-runner rates, while in joint-third place on 55.56% are Paul Nicholls and Stuart Edmunds. That was until Rendition and Via Serica brought that number down to 50% - which still gives him a clear fourth. The two juveniles previously bought by Stuart Edmund at the Tattersalls July Sale, Wolf Of Windlesham and Addosh would each earn black type during their first campaigns over hurdles having only cost 15,000 guineas. This year, Stuart Edmunds parted with 24,000 guineas in order to secure the 68 rated maiden, Rendition. Initially with Andrew Balding, Rendition made her debut when midfield in a Wolverhampton novice last December before returning in a similar contest at Chepstow in late April where she still looked green and was not strenuously encouraged to better her midfield finish. A few weeks later, Rendition went to Redcar for a ten furlong fillies’ race on good to soft where she lacked the pace of the two short-priced market principals, but was able to finish four lengths clear of the remainder. A twenty-one length midfield finish at Newbury can probably be dismissed as the race rather fell apart, and she posted what was probably her best effort to date early July in a ten-furlong fillies’ handicap at Ffos Las off 72. Unable to quicken off a modestly-run contest, she ultimately finished a six-length sixth of ten in a race which is working out quite well. Rendition is a daughter of Ulysses (covered in the Trojan Horse profile) and has a couple of pertinent uncles in Ace Ventura, who finished third in a juvenile hurdle on his debut, and Alessandro Volta, who won the Lingfield Derby Trial. The third dam produced winning hurdlers Poet and High Stratos. Rendition made her hurdling debut in late July at Stratford; the same venue where Addosh was introduced. However, while supported in the morning from 11/4 to 7/4, she drifted to 5/2 in the ring and though still sent off the second favourite, she ran a race too bad to be true. Racing keenly in the rear, she was big over the first, and awkward and slowly away at the second fifth and seventh; whereafter she was struggling to keep in touch and detached before the turn for home. Her performance was capped with a very tired jump at the last which saw her finish a thirty-one length sixth of six. Naturally, a great deal will need to have been learned from the experience and she will also need to show benefit from her wind operation. Nevertheless, her flat form does not leave her with a great deal to find on these terms and the Edmunds yard (which has had one winning juvenile from two at Kempton) is currently in decent health.
Strong prospects
I don’t know / Age Of Sail
Reasonable prospects
I don’t know / Rendition/Trojan Horse
Feasible prospects
I don’t know / Admiralty House
Moderate prospects
I don’t know / Tartarus
Negligible prospects
I don’t know / Volenti/Lark Lane
Admiralty House chg Alan King f7-0-4 (79) 86
Sea The Stars (Tobougg){5-h}(1.00) 2/1 Enchanted Forest 133 3rd 2m Handicap Hurdle (120), Punchestown 2013
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 112 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. He boasts a 30% strike rate with juveniles at Kempton since 2004, with five winners coming in this contest. The yard’s record with debutants is two wins from five, those trained on the flat by himself is one from four, and those trained by himself making their hurdling debuts are zero from three. Notwithstanding, when it comes to all Alan King self-trained newcomers rated 70 and above, his record of 17 wins from 49 runs is both healthy and substantial. Admiralty House is such a horse, having earned a BHA mark of 79 during a seven race flat career at the yard. Costing 55,000 guineas at a two-year-old breeze-up, and gelded before seeing the track, Admiralty House finished third in a nine furlong Wolverhampton novice stakes in January before going one better at Chelmsford over ten furlongs the following month; getting within a length of King Edward VII runner-up Grand Alliance. Given a near four month break, he returned to finish a good second in a Salisbury maiden over a mile and a half, but pulled too hard for his own good at Newbury and, with the hood applied, at Wolverhampton. His penultimate start saw him post a career best in a ten furlong handicap at Newbury in mid-August. Racing off 76, he took a keen hold once again while held up off a strong pace, but finished strongly within the distance and got to within a head of Cracksman’s brother at the line. However, he reverted to type at Yarmouth when last seen a month ago when finishing last of ten at Yarmouth having pulled hard and raced awkwardly under pressure. A nephew of Dutch Art (who has a 4.08% strike rate 8.33% improvement rate as a juvenile sire), the damline of Admiralty House consists of maiden jumpers. Half-brother Combarro twice finished runner-up in claiming hurdles as a four-year-old while uncle Enchanted Forest did place in a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, but was still a twenty-three race maiden. Nevertheless, sire Sea The Stars is a positive attribute as per his winner to runner rate of 31.25% which includes Stars Over The Sea and Starchitect – the former landing this race on his hurdles debut in 2014. His progeny’s strike rate does improve form 9.38% first-time to 42.86% by the third run, but drops to 0% on the fourth run, highlighting the limitations of statistics. The yard and sire afford Admiralty House plenty of respect, although his inconsistency on the flat suggests that he might benefit from experience.
Age Of Sail bg Gary Moore f6-0-2 (76) 83 j1-0-1 (-) 108 113
Frankel (Pivotal){22-b}(1.06) 0.5 Polarisation 114 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2015
Gelded shortly after his sole outing for Godolphin, where he beat one home in a Goodwood maiden last September, Age Of Sail’s next public appearance came at the Tattersalls February Sale where he fetched 60,000 guineas and joined Joseph Parr. In the space of eighty-two days, running over distances between eight and twelve furlongs, Age Of Sail failed to breach the front two in five outings. Nevertheless, he was never beaten any more than three and a half lengths and ended his stint with a BHA mark of 76. Twice placing fourth in a Windsor maiden and Southwell novice, he ran on well to finish third off 77 on his handicap debut over ten furlongs at Sandown, and might have finished closer when squeezed out in the closing stages at Leicester over an extra two furlongs. His flat stint was capped with a solid enough fifth of fourteen at Newbury and his attentions were turned to hurdles as he moved to Gary Moore’s yard. Another successful trainer in the sphere, Moore has a winner-to-runner rate of 35.91% while sire Frankel has one of 31.25%. A nephew of Lammtarra, jumpers are thin on Age Of Sail’s damline as while half-brother Polarisation finished second on his sole run in the sphere, the nearest winners stem from the fourth dam in King Of The Picts (4/5), Noland (4/5) and Ruzzini (4/6). Introduced at Chepstow last Saturday, Age Of Sail was backed from 5/2 in the morning to 13/8 second-favourite at the off and spent much of the contest held up in fourth of the five runners. Taking closer order at the top of the straight, he briefly held a narrow lead approaching two out, and disputed until his being slow away from the last gave the initiative, and ultimately a near three-length victory to Alan King’s Tuddenham Green. His round was reasonable for a debutant, but there was still room for improvement as he was slow away from the same flight on the first circuit, stumbled on landing after the fourth and tight at the next two. The winning time was comparable to the “Free Handicap Hurdle” later on the card (which was more steadily ran) and the form is about as strong as anything seen in what has been a weak British division thus far. Age Of Sail sets the standard on the basis of his Chepstow outing and likely experience, although the record of Gary Moore juveniles at Kempton is a curious one as only one from fifty-two has won since 2004. That being said, he has also had three of the last four runners-up in the Adonis Hurdle.
Lark Lane bg Richenda Ford f17-0-3 (45) 56
Sixties Icon (Rip Van Winkle){1-n}(0.68) 3/1 Visibility 138 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Leicester 2003
With seventeen flat outings to his name, Lark Lane is by far the most experienced runner in this field. His official rating of 45 is also the lowest. The closest he came to winning was when headed near the line in a Leicester mile handicap off 46, although he has also placed third in selling company including when last seen at Ripon over ten furlongs at the end of August. Set to be the second juvenile trained by Richenda Ford, Lark Lane was formerly with Mick Channon whose ex-inmates have a 25.17% winner runner rate which drops to 19.64% when Sheena West juveniles are eliminated. Sixties Icon has a solid 22.45% winner to runner rate while the third dam produced winning juvenile Visibility as well as the dam of winning jumpers Vorashann and Vaziani. Lark Lane does not have the worst pedigree for the sphere, but his exposed flat ability and occasionally suspect attitude negate interest at this juncture.
Tartarus bg Alexandra Dunn f3-0-2 (71) 71
Ruler Of The World (Mark Of Esteem){14-b}(0.48) 2/2 Atalan 1st 3900m Premio Piero e Franco Richard Novices Chase (G3), Merano 2017
With only three runs to his name, Tartarus is the least expereinced runner in this field. He is also coming into the race off the longest break having not been seen since April. His debut came in a ten furlong Lingfield maiden in March where, having been supported from 7/1 to 3/1 raced close up but ran very green under pressure before finishing a length and three quarter second, nearly four lengths clear of the remainder. Tartarus ran a similar race to a similar level over the same course and distance at the end of the month, losing second on the line. His last flat outing came when an eleven length eighth of thirteen in a ten furlong Windsor novice where he was again green under pressure before fading in the final half-furlong. As the race was inundated with subsequent winners, the form would not have been far off his best, itself worth little more than his official mark of 71. This would be his final outing for Paul Cole, whose former inmates have a winner runner rate of 14.71%, and improvement rate of 33.33%. Fetching £14,000 at the Tattersalls Ascot May Sale, Tartarus has since joined an Alexandra Dunn whose improvement rate stands at 18.18%, with only one of her twenty-three juveniles finding the winners’ enclosure. Ruler Of The World has one winning juvenile from seven and Tartarus has a half-brother and three uncles that are maidens over hurdles; although cousins Atalan and Jewel de Cerisy have fair form on the continent while Converti won a three mile maiden at Worcester.
Trojan Horse chc Anthony Honeyball f9-2-3 (78) 88
Ulysses (Monsun){22-d}(0.58) 0.5 Guiri 125 1st 2m4½f Handicap Hurdle (113), Punchestown 2021
Anthony Honeyball does not train many juvenile hurdlers, although he has done well with those who have run for him. With Sailing Grace winning at Newton Abbot, he is now on four winners from eleven since 2011; three of these scoring first time out. His next is set to be Trojan Horse; a 78 rated dual winner formerly trained by Mark Johnston. Honeyball has had just one higher rated in Jukebox Jive, but Trojan Horse will be his highest rated recruit. While ex-Mark Johnstone recruits have a solid winner runner rate of 23.47%, only 29.82% improve for the switch in codes. Nevertheless, the sole juvenile to switch between the yards was the 50 rated Mister Allegro who won twice for Honeyball last term. After finishing a near six length third in a mile novice at York last October, Trojan Horse got off the mark at the second time of asking towards the end of that month with an easy win at Redcar from a high seventies rated performer. Returning in mid-April, Trojan Horse landed a cross-winter brace when taking a five runner novice stakes over twelve furlongs at Ripon on heavy ground. Racing keenly to the fore he hit the front three furlongs out and though ponderous under pressure, ran to the line with a bit to spare over three subsequent winners. Trojan Horse would not add to his tally in six outings, but apart from a Royal Ascot handicap, would still run consistently. He was last seen sixty-nine days ago in a twelve furlong handicap at Ripon where, having been rated 84 earlier in the season, was running off 78. Racing close up off a steady gallop, he was unable to match the winner for pace in the final couple of furlongs, but did keep on to pull upwards of three lengths clear of the remainder. He is set to be one of two runners for first-crop sire, Ulysses, who is off the mark with jumpers after Lincoln won in France. The winner of an International Stakes and an Eclipse, and third in the 2017 Arc, Ulysses boasts a classy and well-rounded profile. Out of Galileo and Oaks winner Light Shift, he comfortably has the stamina for the minimum trip over jumps and is also an adequate 16.1hh. His pedigree credentials are further supplemented by damline appearances of Champion Chaser Dodging Bullets (3/2) and Kingwell Hurdle winner Elgin (2/3). From the family of Guadalupe (2/1) and Royal Rebel (3/1) Trojan Horse is a half-brother to two winning jumpers in Guiri and Gambol as well as being a nephew of jumps sire Getaway. Damsire Monsun is also a positive, with his broodmares producing thirteen winning juveniles from thirty-six. The entire Trojan Horse might be a little fresh first time out, but he has a decent size about him and should have no trouble getting the trip so a decent showing would not be discounted.
Volenti bg Adam West f9-1-0 (50) 60
Estidhkaar (Mastercraftsman){8-c}(3.00) 3/1 Grapelli 60.0 1st 3700, Handicap Chase (56.0), Cagnes-dur-Mer 2004
The second of two winners in this field, but rated over a stone below Trojan Horse, Volenti gained his sole success in a seven furlong Epsom handicap in mid-July. Racing off 51, he was held up off a blistering gallop and traded at 180 at one stage, but kept on as the race fell apart and led in the final strides. Since then, he has not ran to within a stone of that performance in four outings; showing a tendency to pull hard and sweat freely in the process. Switched to hurdling, his pedigree offers mixed messages as while Mastercraftsman is looking as good a damsire as sire, and the third dam produced a winning chaser in France, Volenti’s sire Estidhkaar has yet to produce a winning juvenile from eight (with twenty-six attempts between them). Adam West enjoyed his first winning juvenile this term in Rolypolymoly, but has been struggling as of late.
Rendition chf Stuart Edmunds f5-0-1 (68) 73 j1-0-0 (-) 44 68
Ulysses (Pivotal){13-e}(0.85) 3/1 Poet 127 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Since 2004/2005, three-hundred-and-eight British and Irish trainers have saddled ten or more juvenile hurdlers. Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have the strongest winner-to-runner rates, while in joint-third place on 55.56% are Paul Nicholls and Stuart Edmunds. That was until Rendition and Via Serica brought that number down to 50% - which still gives him a clear fourth. The two juveniles previously bought by Stuart Edmund at the Tattersalls July Sale, Wolf Of Windlesham and Addosh would each earn black type during their first campaigns over hurdles having only cost 15,000 guineas. This year, Stuart Edmunds parted with 24,000 guineas in order to secure the 68 rated maiden, Rendition. Initially with Andrew Balding, Rendition made her debut when midfield in a Wolverhampton novice last December before returning in a similar contest at Chepstow in late April where she still looked green and was not strenuously encouraged to better her midfield finish. A few weeks later, Rendition went to Redcar for a ten furlong fillies’ race on good to soft where she lacked the pace of the two short-priced market principals, but was able to finish four lengths clear of the remainder. A twenty-one length midfield finish at Newbury can probably be dismissed as the race rather fell apart, and she posted what was probably her best effort to date early July in a ten-furlong fillies’ handicap at Ffos Las off 72. Unable to quicken off a modestly-run contest, she ultimately finished a six-length sixth of ten in a race which is working out quite well. Rendition is a daughter of Ulysses (covered in the Trojan Horse profile) and has a couple of pertinent uncles in Ace Ventura, who finished third in a juvenile hurdle on his debut, and Alessandro Volta, who won the Lingfield Derby Trial. The third dam produced winning hurdlers Poet and High Stratos. Rendition made her hurdling debut in late July at Stratford; the same venue where Addosh was introduced. However, while supported in the morning from 11/4 to 7/4, she drifted to 5/2 in the ring and though still sent off the second favourite, she ran a race too bad to be true. Racing keenly in the rear, she was big over the first, and awkward and slowly away at the second fifth and seventh; whereafter she was struggling to keep in touch and detached before the turn for home. Her performance was capped with a very tired jump at the last which saw her finish a thirty-one length sixth of six. Naturally, a great deal will need to have been learned from the experience and she will also need to show benefit from her wind operation. Nevertheless, her flat form does not leave her with a great deal to find on these terms and the Edmunds yard (which has had one winning juvenile from two at Kempton) is currently in decent health.
Strong prospects
I don’t know / Age Of Sail
Reasonable prospects
I don’t know / Rendition/Trojan Horse
Feasible prospects
I don’t know / Admiralty House
Moderate prospects
I don’t know / Tartarus
Negligible prospects
I don’t know / Volenti/Lark Lane
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The Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle is an integral feature of the early season juvenile calendar, although its history is best described as “varied”. This defining feature has been omnipresent since its inception in 1986 when it superseded the Thorp Arch Novices’ Hurdle; a juvenile event which was invariably split into two divisions. The first renewal saw Qurrat Al Ain lead home Cumbrian Nijo with the pair becoming ordinary handicappers. The next two were then taken by Royal Illusion (won the Victor Ludorum and Anniversary hurdles later that season) and Royal Derbi (won the Punchestown Champion 4YO before eventually finishing second in the 1993 Champion Hurdle). Afforded Grade 2 status in 1990, but relegated to listed class in 2001 the pattern continued unabated with the likes of Swift Sword, Desert Mist, Aviation, Calomeria and Nicky Nutjob emerging victorious in a race that has had some very notable participants. Silver Wedge, Bellator, Kerawi and Quazar did well in earlier renewals while more recently, Grandouet, Sametegal and Sceau Royal trod the Wetherby turf with last year seeing Porticello adding his name to the useful column. The most notable participants this century each finished runner-up in the contest. In 2006, Katchit was beaten by Degas Art before landing the Prestbury, Finesse, Triumph and Anniversary ahead of becoming Champion Hurdler. 2011 runner-up Countrywide Flame filled the same position in the Finale and Anniversary Hurdles as well as winning that season's Triumph.
The extent to which this season's participants might follow the aforementioned remains to be seen, and it is difficult to assess at this juncture. Only four runners are set to face the starter and the absences of the two Milton Harris entries and French recruits for Paul Nicholls and Rebecca Menzies make the contest much more winnable. Notwithstanding, those who do line up are all winners over hurdles that, without threatening to take the division by storm, would not be out of place in any decent renewal. The flat form brought into the race is average at best with none able to score under that code. Notwithstanding, all four are by strong sires in the sphere, represent successful trainers and have shown themselves to be able jumpers of hurdles.
A flat, left-handed, galloping track, the West Yorkshire venue’s average winning DIs of 1.20 median, 1.33 mean are close to standard, although these are some twenty points lower than those of the average participant. Furthermore, the clear round rate of 94.63% is one of the lowest in the country and the completion rate of 82.10% also suggests Wetherby offers a good test of a young hurdler’s aptitude. Only one of the participants has made the running in the past, but with him being a course and distance winner, the impetus to repeat those tactics should ensure an honest pace. The going is currently described as good to soft, good in places, and there is a chance of light showers during the morning.
Triumph Odds
Tuddenham Green 50/1
Medyaf bg Dan Skelton f4-0-0 (64) 64 j1-1-0 (-) 102 106
Sea The Moon (Rock Of Gibraltar){13-e}(0.78) 3/2 Poet 127 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Juvenile hurdlers who start their careers with John Gosden have a winner to runner rate of 18.10% which is close enough to average. However, only Pied Piper recorded an RPR exceeding 140 during their first campaigns over hurdles and their improvement rate stands at just 21.74%. A half-brother to a Group 2 winner who cost 110,000 guineas as a yearling, Medyaf did not live up to expectations on the flat as he finished nearer last than first on all four flat outings – although his final BHA mark of 64 meant that he left Clarehaven Stables on a lower foundation than most of his ilk. His first two outings last Autumn, at Nottingham and Newcastle, were not without promise as he shaped as though he would improve with age. However, the application of blinkers for the second half of his flat career cultivated a regression in both form and attitude, and he was allowed to leave Gosden for just 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls February Sale. There, he was purchased by Craig and Laura Buckingham and he would join a Dan Skelton yard with a fine record in the division. His winner to runner rate of 38.20% and improvement rate of 49.44% are above average and his clear round rate of 98.53% is the highest of any trainer with fifty or more juveniles to his name. Medyaf’s pedigree also gives cause for optimism for his new vocation as sire Sea The Moon has a fine winner runner rate of 38.10% headed by The Tide Turns, Tritonic and another Skelton inmate in Allmankind. Jumpers do not immediately appear on the damline, although the third dam produced the dams of useful winner Poet and High Stratos with the talented French chaser Sans Commission appearing at 5/2. Medyaf made his hurdling bow at the start of the month in a Stratford maiden Skelton used to introduce Too Friendly to make a winning debut last season. Opening at 10/3 in the morning, he had drifted out to 9/1 before being sent off the 7/1 fourth favourite of seven. Tracking the leader from the outset, Medyaf was understandably fresh on his first racecourse appearance in nearly eight months, although did not pull particularly hard. He did miss the second, got in close to the fourth and was skewed over the next, but his round of jumping was otherwise decent for a newcomer. The front pair were a long way clear by the time they turned into the straight, and though by no means a certain winner approaching the last, he did appear to be travelling better of the two when La Breille’s fall left him a distance clear. The race had lost much of its depth when the easy going Caesar’s Palace was pulled up quickly after two out, but the form received a boost when La Breille gained compensation in a fillies’ event at Fakenham on Wednesday. Few would be considering the Triumph Hurdle at this juncture, but in a race of unexposed horses of comparable ability, Medyaf is not readily dismissed; particularly given Skelton’s record in the race reads as a winner (Langer Dan in 2019) and two thirds (King d’Argent in 2018 and Cabot Cliffs in 2020 for the same owners) from three runners. However, one concern could be that Medyaf was a tricky ride on the flat, and his being left a long way clear at Stratford deprived observers of the means to assess his resolve under pressure.
Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j4-3-1 (120) 114 112
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
Juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere; and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen. After Fontwell in early September, those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of sixteen from forty. Prior to Mr Freedom’s victory, seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which afforded encouragement for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and after being beaten eleven lengths at Sandown on his debut last June, was beaten nineteen and fifteen lengths at Kempton and Salisbury before being put away for the winter. In May came his return in a Bath mile handicap off 59 for which he attracted outside support; starting at 10/1 having opened at twice the price in the morning. Pulling hard in the early stages, he struggled for room in the final couple of furlongs and though he only managed an eighth place finish, he was not given a vigorous ride in posting a new career best. He failed to build on that degree of promise in a similar contest at Ripon next time and while traffic issues were something of a feature, he had no such excuses when making no show whatsoever at Windsor next time. Given a two month break, a change of scenery, and a step up to a mile-and-a-half, Mr Freedom ran a considerably better race when returning to Windsor at the start of the month. Settling better on the prominent side of midfield, he was unable to accelerate with the principle as the race developed, but still ran on for a three-and-a-quarter length fourth of ten. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a solid winner-runner rate of 22.45%, and his strike-rate before October is a healthy 33.33%. Mr Freedom’s hurdling debut came at Fontwell in August, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate did jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. Seventeen days later, all of the above led to Mr Freedom belying the relative lack of enthusiasm in the market to comfortably land 9/1 odds back at the same venue. Taking a firm hold while bringing up the field at a modest tempo, Mr Freedom still showed a tendency to hop and skew at his early flights, but it was much less pronounced than on his debut and he did hurdle quite quickly on occasion. Still bringing up the rear of a tightly bunched field jumping the penultimate flight, he passed a couple of rivals approaching the last where he was within a length of the lead. From there, he had the pace to quickly put the race to bed, winning readily by two, four and seven lengths. Given how the race unfolded, the winning time was far from impressive and little more could be said of the form. The runner-up was an uncompelling debutant and those with experience were below par. His third jumps outing came at Plumpton where he started the steady 10/3 second favourite in a race which looked somewhat stronger on paper. Held up towards the rear, he made minor errors such as skewing somewhat, getting in tight and rather reaching at his hurdles, but apart from being especially awkward at three out, generally went about things efficiently enough. Having made headway on the second circuit, he was caught for toe as the leader pressed on leaving the back, but he was able to reel him in by the last and powered clear up the run in to score by four and twenty-one lengths. Mr Freedom completed his hat trick when returning to Fontwell four weeks ago and though conceding upwards of twelve pounds all round, was still sent off a solid 5/4 favourite. Once again held up towards the rear, Mr Freedom was tight at the majority of his hurdles, but his only real error came when getting too close to the third. Entering the straight, he was within striking distance of the leading pair and travelling much the strongest of the three. His being ridden into the last when upsides the leader was the first time he was asked a question by Marc Goldstein and in response, Mr Freedom needed only pushing on the run-in to score by a comfortable ten lengths. The runner-up subsequently finishing an eleven length fourth off 100 gives a fair indication off the standard of form. Though Mr Freedom would be the most exposed runner in the line-up and would be vulnerable to improvers, he is undoubtedly an admirable sort representing a yard which sent Mohanad to finish third in the 2009 renewal of this race (one of the lesser editions), so a respectable showing would not be unexpected.
Tuddenham Green bg Alan King f5-0-2 (70) 76 j1-1-0 (-) 111 116
Nathaniel (New Approach){7-f}(0.53) 2/1 Devilment 150 2nd Anniversary Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2015
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 113 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Sceau Royal, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. Though his strike rate with juveniles at Wetherby is merely a fair 12%, he has saddled Secret Edge (trained by himself on the flat) and Cracker Factory to win this contest as well as sending the aforementioned Katchit and Sceau Royal to finish runner-up. His representative this year is Tuddenham Green; the highest rated flat recruit to the tune of five pounds. Gelded after a lacklustre debut at Haydock last June, he showed enough improvement when sixth and fourth in mile contests at Kempton and Lingfield respectively to warrant an opening BHA mark of 69. Tuddenham Green had been entered in minor juvenile hurdle events during the summer, but connections opted to keep him on the flat for a pair of handicaps. His reappearance came at the end of June for a Haydock handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Racing keenly towards the rear, he was asked for his effort three furlongs out and though he lacked the turn of foot shown by the front pair (each subsequent winners), he stayed on honestly enough to finish six and a half lengths third of a strung out eight runner field. A month later, he was stepped up to a mile and six for a Sandown handicap, although it did not present the desired stamina test. Held up in touch, Tuddenham Green was keeping tabs on the principals up the straight, but finding himself caught in a pocket, he found himself shuffled to the rear at the distance. Though it would be a stretch to suggest this cost him victory, he did stay on determinedly to keep on for a close third. He was given a ten week break before making an inevitable switch to hurdling for which he is very feasibly bred. Nathaniel has produced a commendable eleven winning juveniles from thirty-three (headed by Zanahiyr, Burning Victory and Navajo Pass), with his progeny boasting a healthy strike rate of 20.69%. His granddam produced the accomplished juvenile hurdler Devilment along with another winner in Nasee, while winning German hurdler Interior Minister appears at 3/2 on the damline. Tuddenham Green’s introduction to hurdling came in the same Chepstow juvenile Alan King won with Katchit, Franchoek and Karezak and gave debuts to Secret Edge and Sceau Royal. Sent off the solid 6/4 favourite of five, he took a keen hold in rear and was tight over the first. Nevertheless, while his enthusiasm continued, he was tidy over the next couple before clipping the fourth. He was caught out by the flattened fifth hurdle, which put him a few lengths behind the field, and he was tight at the first in the straight as well as slightly missing the penultimate flight. Notwithstanding, though still lacking that patent turn of pace, he was staying on strongest of all without straining himself and a clean jump and the last gave him a lead which he extended to nearly three lengths by the line. The winning time compared very favourably against the Free Handicap Hurdle later on the card and the runner-up gave the form a solid look when an arguably unlucky second to another of Alan King’s with a decent looking performance at Kempton. Tuddenham Green is the only runner currently quoted for the Triumph Hurdle, although the 50/1 is probably a fair reflection of his prospects at this juncture. That being said, while this field is comprised of unexposed sorts of reasonable promise, Tuddenham Green has the most substantial profile as per his flat ability, form achieved, trainer, pedigree and scope for further improvement.
Vintage Valley grg Donald McCain f3-0-0 (65) 66 j2-1-0 (-) 95 104
Mastercraftsman (Araafa){1-i}(1.50) 2/2 Genuflex 106 2nd Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2021
In 2011, Hollow Tree left Andrew Balding to join Donald McCain for who he won three races as a juvenile including the Grade One Finale Hurdle. Since then, two other juveniles failed to score having made that journey, although Vintage Valley was recently able to break that trend. A thrice raced maiden on the flat, Vintage Valley shaped with some promise on his debut at Haydock in April when running green and lacking the pace to better fifth in a steadily run mile and a half contest. He failed to show on his return to that venue the following month, but probably matched the form of his debut when fifth of eight at Chepstow back in June. After fetching £32,000 at the Tattersalls Ascot Sale in July, Vintage Valley made his hurdling debut at Sedgefield last month in the same contest McCain introduced Genever Dragon to make a winning debut two years ago. On breeding, there is plenty of encouragement in the pedigree for the game. Mastercraftsman is one of the most successful sires of juveniles and along with Genuflex (runner-up in this race last year), he is also a cousin of Gendarme and Good Prince, as well as a nephew of Ginistrelli. Starting at 10/1, he was much easier in the market of the two Fyffe runners, although the other was rated eighteen pounds superior on the flat and already had a run over hurdles to his name. Leading early before getting a lead in the straight first time round, he disputed going out onto the second circuit before a tight jump at the last in the back saw him lose ground. Well behind by the time they turned for home, Vintage Valley merely got the better of a scrap with a 100/1 outsider for a twenty-nine length fourth. Apart from tight jumps at the first, and the same flight on the second circuit, he posted a fair round of jumping; albeit with a tendency to go towards his left. The bare form of Vintage Valley’s debut is modest, but he shaped as though he ought to improve in due course. Making his second outing over this course and distance sixteen days ago, Vintage Valley was able to get off the mark. On paper, the race had looked like a match between an intriguing Milton Harris newcomer in Highland Frolic, and the nine hurdles at the course. Nevertheless, as the former drifted markedly, Vintage Valley’s price contracted from a morning show of 13/2 to 11/4 at the off. In the event, Vintage Valley set a solid pace, jumped very neatly save for hitting the fifth, had all bar Highland Frolic in trouble before reaching the end of the back and had shaken off that rival by the turn for home. Vintage Valley was kept up to his work and came home seventeen lengths to the good. The winning time was decent enough and taking Vintage Valley in isolation, his performance was visually very good. However, it is worth noting that despite the fact there were no fallers in the race, the standard of jumping was lamentable with all five rivals making errors at virtually every hurdle. Another factor to consider is that since 2004, thirty-two horses have come out of that race to contest the Wensleydale, yet only Aviation (eighth in the 2005 running of the “trial”) went on to win a decidedly poor renewal of the race. The three winners who would finish runner-up in the listed race did so without achieving RPRs exceeding 107. Vintage Valley still has several positives in his profile such as his breeding, his in-form trainer, the fact that he has the second highest rating on the flat, and most pertinently, the likelihood that he will enjoy another uncontested lead over this course and distance. However, the closing sectional last time suggests a considerable expenditure of energy was made, the bare form is probably the weakest on balance and though the pater McCain won this race in 2004 with Calomeria, young Donald is without a winner in six attempts.
Strong prospects
1. Tuddenham Green
Reasonable /Feasible prospects
2. Mr Freedom
3. Vintage Valley
4. Medyaf
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
.
The extent to which this season's participants might follow the aforementioned remains to be seen, and it is difficult to assess at this juncture. Only four runners are set to face the starter and the absences of the two Milton Harris entries and French recruits for Paul Nicholls and Rebecca Menzies make the contest much more winnable. Notwithstanding, those who do line up are all winners over hurdles that, without threatening to take the division by storm, would not be out of place in any decent renewal. The flat form brought into the race is average at best with none able to score under that code. Notwithstanding, all four are by strong sires in the sphere, represent successful trainers and have shown themselves to be able jumpers of hurdles.
A flat, left-handed, galloping track, the West Yorkshire venue’s average winning DIs of 1.20 median, 1.33 mean are close to standard, although these are some twenty points lower than those of the average participant. Furthermore, the clear round rate of 94.63% is one of the lowest in the country and the completion rate of 82.10% also suggests Wetherby offers a good test of a young hurdler’s aptitude. Only one of the participants has made the running in the past, but with him being a course and distance winner, the impetus to repeat those tactics should ensure an honest pace. The going is currently described as good to soft, good in places, and there is a chance of light showers during the morning.
Triumph Odds
Tuddenham Green 50/1
Medyaf bg Dan Skelton f4-0-0 (64) 64 j1-1-0 (-) 102 106
Sea The Moon (Rock Of Gibraltar){13-e}(0.78) 3/2 Poet 127 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Juvenile hurdlers who start their careers with John Gosden have a winner to runner rate of 18.10% which is close enough to average. However, only Pied Piper recorded an RPR exceeding 140 during their first campaigns over hurdles and their improvement rate stands at just 21.74%. A half-brother to a Group 2 winner who cost 110,000 guineas as a yearling, Medyaf did not live up to expectations on the flat as he finished nearer last than first on all four flat outings – although his final BHA mark of 64 meant that he left Clarehaven Stables on a lower foundation than most of his ilk. His first two outings last Autumn, at Nottingham and Newcastle, were not without promise as he shaped as though he would improve with age. However, the application of blinkers for the second half of his flat career cultivated a regression in both form and attitude, and he was allowed to leave Gosden for just 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls February Sale. There, he was purchased by Craig and Laura Buckingham and he would join a Dan Skelton yard with a fine record in the division. His winner to runner rate of 38.20% and improvement rate of 49.44% are above average and his clear round rate of 98.53% is the highest of any trainer with fifty or more juveniles to his name. Medyaf’s pedigree also gives cause for optimism for his new vocation as sire Sea The Moon has a fine winner runner rate of 38.10% headed by The Tide Turns, Tritonic and another Skelton inmate in Allmankind. Jumpers do not immediately appear on the damline, although the third dam produced the dams of useful winner Poet and High Stratos with the talented French chaser Sans Commission appearing at 5/2. Medyaf made his hurdling bow at the start of the month in a Stratford maiden Skelton used to introduce Too Friendly to make a winning debut last season. Opening at 10/3 in the morning, he had drifted out to 9/1 before being sent off the 7/1 fourth favourite of seven. Tracking the leader from the outset, Medyaf was understandably fresh on his first racecourse appearance in nearly eight months, although did not pull particularly hard. He did miss the second, got in close to the fourth and was skewed over the next, but his round of jumping was otherwise decent for a newcomer. The front pair were a long way clear by the time they turned into the straight, and though by no means a certain winner approaching the last, he did appear to be travelling better of the two when La Breille’s fall left him a distance clear. The race had lost much of its depth when the easy going Caesar’s Palace was pulled up quickly after two out, but the form received a boost when La Breille gained compensation in a fillies’ event at Fakenham on Wednesday. Few would be considering the Triumph Hurdle at this juncture, but in a race of unexposed horses of comparable ability, Medyaf is not readily dismissed; particularly given Skelton’s record in the race reads as a winner (Langer Dan in 2019) and two thirds (King d’Argent in 2018 and Cabot Cliffs in 2020 for the same owners) from three runners. However, one concern could be that Medyaf was a tricky ride on the flat, and his being left a long way clear at Stratford deprived observers of the means to assess his resolve under pressure.
Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j4-3-1 (120) 114 112
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
Juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere; and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen. After Fontwell in early September, those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of sixteen from forty. Prior to Mr Freedom’s victory, seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which afforded encouragement for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and after being beaten eleven lengths at Sandown on his debut last June, was beaten nineteen and fifteen lengths at Kempton and Salisbury before being put away for the winter. In May came his return in a Bath mile handicap off 59 for which he attracted outside support; starting at 10/1 having opened at twice the price in the morning. Pulling hard in the early stages, he struggled for room in the final couple of furlongs and though he only managed an eighth place finish, he was not given a vigorous ride in posting a new career best. He failed to build on that degree of promise in a similar contest at Ripon next time and while traffic issues were something of a feature, he had no such excuses when making no show whatsoever at Windsor next time. Given a two month break, a change of scenery, and a step up to a mile-and-a-half, Mr Freedom ran a considerably better race when returning to Windsor at the start of the month. Settling better on the prominent side of midfield, he was unable to accelerate with the principle as the race developed, but still ran on for a three-and-a-quarter length fourth of ten. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a solid winner-runner rate of 22.45%, and his strike-rate before October is a healthy 33.33%. Mr Freedom’s hurdling debut came at Fontwell in August, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate did jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. Seventeen days later, all of the above led to Mr Freedom belying the relative lack of enthusiasm in the market to comfortably land 9/1 odds back at the same venue. Taking a firm hold while bringing up the field at a modest tempo, Mr Freedom still showed a tendency to hop and skew at his early flights, but it was much less pronounced than on his debut and he did hurdle quite quickly on occasion. Still bringing up the rear of a tightly bunched field jumping the penultimate flight, he passed a couple of rivals approaching the last where he was within a length of the lead. From there, he had the pace to quickly put the race to bed, winning readily by two, four and seven lengths. Given how the race unfolded, the winning time was far from impressive and little more could be said of the form. The runner-up was an uncompelling debutant and those with experience were below par. His third jumps outing came at Plumpton where he started the steady 10/3 second favourite in a race which looked somewhat stronger on paper. Held up towards the rear, he made minor errors such as skewing somewhat, getting in tight and rather reaching at his hurdles, but apart from being especially awkward at three out, generally went about things efficiently enough. Having made headway on the second circuit, he was caught for toe as the leader pressed on leaving the back, but he was able to reel him in by the last and powered clear up the run in to score by four and twenty-one lengths. Mr Freedom completed his hat trick when returning to Fontwell four weeks ago and though conceding upwards of twelve pounds all round, was still sent off a solid 5/4 favourite. Once again held up towards the rear, Mr Freedom was tight at the majority of his hurdles, but his only real error came when getting too close to the third. Entering the straight, he was within striking distance of the leading pair and travelling much the strongest of the three. His being ridden into the last when upsides the leader was the first time he was asked a question by Marc Goldstein and in response, Mr Freedom needed only pushing on the run-in to score by a comfortable ten lengths. The runner-up subsequently finishing an eleven length fourth off 100 gives a fair indication off the standard of form. Though Mr Freedom would be the most exposed runner in the line-up and would be vulnerable to improvers, he is undoubtedly an admirable sort representing a yard which sent Mohanad to finish third in the 2009 renewal of this race (one of the lesser editions), so a respectable showing would not be unexpected.
Tuddenham Green bg Alan King f5-0-2 (70) 76 j1-1-0 (-) 111 116
Nathaniel (New Approach){7-f}(0.53) 2/1 Devilment 150 2nd Anniversary Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2015
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 113 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Sceau Royal, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. Though his strike rate with juveniles at Wetherby is merely a fair 12%, he has saddled Secret Edge (trained by himself on the flat) and Cracker Factory to win this contest as well as sending the aforementioned Katchit and Sceau Royal to finish runner-up. His representative this year is Tuddenham Green; the highest rated flat recruit to the tune of five pounds. Gelded after a lacklustre debut at Haydock last June, he showed enough improvement when sixth and fourth in mile contests at Kempton and Lingfield respectively to warrant an opening BHA mark of 69. Tuddenham Green had been entered in minor juvenile hurdle events during the summer, but connections opted to keep him on the flat for a pair of handicaps. His reappearance came at the end of June for a Haydock handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Racing keenly towards the rear, he was asked for his effort three furlongs out and though he lacked the turn of foot shown by the front pair (each subsequent winners), he stayed on honestly enough to finish six and a half lengths third of a strung out eight runner field. A month later, he was stepped up to a mile and six for a Sandown handicap, although it did not present the desired stamina test. Held up in touch, Tuddenham Green was keeping tabs on the principals up the straight, but finding himself caught in a pocket, he found himself shuffled to the rear at the distance. Though it would be a stretch to suggest this cost him victory, he did stay on determinedly to keep on for a close third. He was given a ten week break before making an inevitable switch to hurdling for which he is very feasibly bred. Nathaniel has produced a commendable eleven winning juveniles from thirty-three (headed by Zanahiyr, Burning Victory and Navajo Pass), with his progeny boasting a healthy strike rate of 20.69%. His granddam produced the accomplished juvenile hurdler Devilment along with another winner in Nasee, while winning German hurdler Interior Minister appears at 3/2 on the damline. Tuddenham Green’s introduction to hurdling came in the same Chepstow juvenile Alan King won with Katchit, Franchoek and Karezak and gave debuts to Secret Edge and Sceau Royal. Sent off the solid 6/4 favourite of five, he took a keen hold in rear and was tight over the first. Nevertheless, while his enthusiasm continued, he was tidy over the next couple before clipping the fourth. He was caught out by the flattened fifth hurdle, which put him a few lengths behind the field, and he was tight at the first in the straight as well as slightly missing the penultimate flight. Notwithstanding, though still lacking that patent turn of pace, he was staying on strongest of all without straining himself and a clean jump and the last gave him a lead which he extended to nearly three lengths by the line. The winning time compared very favourably against the Free Handicap Hurdle later on the card and the runner-up gave the form a solid look when an arguably unlucky second to another of Alan King’s with a decent looking performance at Kempton. Tuddenham Green is the only runner currently quoted for the Triumph Hurdle, although the 50/1 is probably a fair reflection of his prospects at this juncture. That being said, while this field is comprised of unexposed sorts of reasonable promise, Tuddenham Green has the most substantial profile as per his flat ability, form achieved, trainer, pedigree and scope for further improvement.
Vintage Valley grg Donald McCain f3-0-0 (65) 66 j2-1-0 (-) 95 104
Mastercraftsman (Araafa){1-i}(1.50) 2/2 Genuflex 106 2nd Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2021
In 2011, Hollow Tree left Andrew Balding to join Donald McCain for who he won three races as a juvenile including the Grade One Finale Hurdle. Since then, two other juveniles failed to score having made that journey, although Vintage Valley was recently able to break that trend. A thrice raced maiden on the flat, Vintage Valley shaped with some promise on his debut at Haydock in April when running green and lacking the pace to better fifth in a steadily run mile and a half contest. He failed to show on his return to that venue the following month, but probably matched the form of his debut when fifth of eight at Chepstow back in June. After fetching £32,000 at the Tattersalls Ascot Sale in July, Vintage Valley made his hurdling debut at Sedgefield last month in the same contest McCain introduced Genever Dragon to make a winning debut two years ago. On breeding, there is plenty of encouragement in the pedigree for the game. Mastercraftsman is one of the most successful sires of juveniles and along with Genuflex (runner-up in this race last year), he is also a cousin of Gendarme and Good Prince, as well as a nephew of Ginistrelli. Starting at 10/1, he was much easier in the market of the two Fyffe runners, although the other was rated eighteen pounds superior on the flat and already had a run over hurdles to his name. Leading early before getting a lead in the straight first time round, he disputed going out onto the second circuit before a tight jump at the last in the back saw him lose ground. Well behind by the time they turned for home, Vintage Valley merely got the better of a scrap with a 100/1 outsider for a twenty-nine length fourth. Apart from tight jumps at the first, and the same flight on the second circuit, he posted a fair round of jumping; albeit with a tendency to go towards his left. The bare form of Vintage Valley’s debut is modest, but he shaped as though he ought to improve in due course. Making his second outing over this course and distance sixteen days ago, Vintage Valley was able to get off the mark. On paper, the race had looked like a match between an intriguing Milton Harris newcomer in Highland Frolic, and the nine hurdles at the course. Nevertheless, as the former drifted markedly, Vintage Valley’s price contracted from a morning show of 13/2 to 11/4 at the off. In the event, Vintage Valley set a solid pace, jumped very neatly save for hitting the fifth, had all bar Highland Frolic in trouble before reaching the end of the back and had shaken off that rival by the turn for home. Vintage Valley was kept up to his work and came home seventeen lengths to the good. The winning time was decent enough and taking Vintage Valley in isolation, his performance was visually very good. However, it is worth noting that despite the fact there were no fallers in the race, the standard of jumping was lamentable with all five rivals making errors at virtually every hurdle. Another factor to consider is that since 2004, thirty-two horses have come out of that race to contest the Wensleydale, yet only Aviation (eighth in the 2005 running of the “trial”) went on to win a decidedly poor renewal of the race. The three winners who would finish runner-up in the listed race did so without achieving RPRs exceeding 107. Vintage Valley still has several positives in his profile such as his breeding, his in-form trainer, the fact that he has the second highest rating on the flat, and most pertinently, the likelihood that he will enjoy another uncontested lead over this course and distance. However, the closing sectional last time suggests a considerable expenditure of energy was made, the bare form is probably the weakest on balance and though the pater McCain won this race in 2004 with Calomeria, young Donald is without a winner in six attempts.
Strong prospects
1. Tuddenham Green
Reasonable /Feasible prospects
2. Mr Freedom
3. Vintage Valley
4. Medyaf
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
.
Bachelors Hall
Conditional
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I have also thrown something together for the junior NH hurdle
https://juvenilehurdlers.wordpress....r-hurdle-28th-october-diatribe-preview-notes/
https://juvenilehurdlers.wordpress....r-hurdle-28th-october-diatribe-preview-notes/
Colin
At the Start
Can you sum up what was said, Grey, please.
It was Graham Cunningham, I think, saying he had had a good chat with a man who was a big fan of juvenile hurdles and did impressive in-depth research on them, and that his opinion backed up his own about today's Listed race, i.e. that Tuddenham Green appeared the most likely winner.
Unfortunately Tuddenham Green got heavily jostled by the winner Medyaf a couple of flights out and didn't show much appetite for battle after that.
Unfortunately Tuddenham Green got heavily jostled by the winner Medyaf a couple of flights out and didn't show much appetite for battle after that.
Colin
At the Start
Thank you, Grey.
Sod’s Law plays a dirty hand - again.
Sod’s Law plays a dirty hand - again.
Bachelors Hall
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- Messages
- 763
Indeed, it was really cool to have a chat with Mr Cunningham and the exposure certainly did no harm
To any new readers. A brief welcome and thank you very much for your curiosity. I research and write about juvenile hurdlers because it is a most underappreciated area of the sport. Underappreciated largely because of the dearth of information readily available to the racing public. To this end, while subscribing to the Historian’s process of using imperfect and patchy evidence to make sense of events, I attempt to lessen some of the mystery within the division. While I predominantly write previews and the likes for myself, I take great delight whenever they help the reader develop a greater appreciation of the sphere.
Nevertheless, I must make it abundantly clear that I AM NOT A TIPSTER. NOTHING I EVER WRITE HAS BEEN A TIP, NOR WILL IT EVER BE. I write solely to inform, never to advise. I do have a prospects list at the bottom, but this is solely to ascertain the strength of my analysis (to see if I am extrapolating the right kind of information from my data). If you ignored this unqualified maxim last season, you would have been a very successful punter. If you have been ignoring it this season, you would be cursing my very existence. To be clear, I very seldom bet on these things so would be appalled to suggest anybody bets on the basis of my work. If you use what you read to inform your punting then good luck and be sensible – but understand that it is entirely of your own volition.
To seasoned readers. You will know that my output is not as consistent as it has been in the past and can often be sporadic. This is because I have considerably less spare time than I did a year and a bit ago. Much as I would love to do long form previews and reviews for every race, the time and energy required does not exist. So, based on feedback I have been receiving for a while, my processes will evolve so that more races can be covered. For the sake of my time (and probably the sanity of many readers), ordinary races will be covered more in note-form. Notwithstanding, because I still prefer long-form, previews for the bigger and more notable races will be gratuitous in their verbosity. If I am feeling generous, I might add tl;dr’s to these because I do want as many people as possible to enjoy my work.
The Wetherby previews offered some indication that this would be coming, and the preview for the upcoming contest at Huntingdon will be a tender step towards brevity. As I have profiles ready written for the Kempton pair, this will be something of a hybrid.
Hope you enjoy and keep in mind that questions, feedback and suggestions are always welcome.
HUNTINGDON – 30th October – Preview
Race History/Stats
* 16 runnings since 2004
* Average winning RPR 116..25 (-2.07 cf. standard)
* Notable participants – Starluck (1st 2008 – 3rd Anniversary, 4th Triumph, future RPR 160), Nyanza (1st 2014 – 1st Aintree Fillies’ Hurdle)
* Newcomers have 14.10% strike rate, experienced horses 6.67% SR
* Previous winners r8-w3-5p
Course Info
* Flat, right handed, galloping track
* Average Winning DI 1.33 (+0.06 cf. standard)
* Clear round 96.38% (+0.32%)
Ground & Pace
* Good, watering to maintain, cloudy with light breeze, slim chance of rain
* Couple have raced prominently but neither are confirmed frontrunners.
* More emphasis on speed rather than stamina
Triumph Odds
Age of Sail 100/1
Admiralty House chg Alan King f7-0-4 (79) 86 j1-1-0 (-) 111 111
Sea The Stars (Tobougg){5-h}(1.00) 2/1 Enchanted Forest 133 3rd 2m Handicap Hurdle (120), Punchestown 2013
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 113 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. He boasts a 30.95% strike rate with juveniles at Huntingdon since 2004, with three winners from seven (McVicar, Nyanza and Twilight Twist) coming in this contest. When it comes to all Alan King self-trained newcomers rated 70 and above, his record of 18 wins from 50 runs is both healthy and substantial. Admiralty House is such a horse, having earned a BHA mark of 79 during a seven race flat career at the yard. Costing 55,000 guineas at a two-year-old breeze-up, and gelded before seeing the track, Admiralty House finished third in a nine furlong Wolverhampton novice stakes in January before going one better at Chelmsford over ten furlongs the following month; getting within a length of King Edward VII runner-up Grand Alliance. Given a near four month break, he returned to finish a good second in a Salisbury maiden over a mile and a half, but pulled too hard for his own good at Newbury and, with the hood applied, at Wolverhampton. His penultimate start saw him post a career best in a ten furlong handicap at Newbury in mid-August. Racing off 76, he took a keen hold once again while held up off a strong pace, but finished strongly within the distance and got to within a head of Cracksman’s brother at the line. However, he reverted to type at Yarmouth on his latest flat start in mid-September when finishing last of ten at Yarmouth having pulled hard and raced awkwardly under pressure. A nephew of Dutch Art (who has a 4.08% strike rate 8.33% improvement rate as a juvenile sire), the damline of Admiralty House consists of maiden jumpers. Half-brother Combarro twice finished runner-up in claiming hurdles as a four-year-old while uncle Enchanted Forest did place in a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, but was still a twenty-three race maiden. Nevertheless, sire Sea The Stars is a positive attribute as per his winner to runner rate of eleven from thirty-three which includes Stars Over The Sea, Starchitect and Admiralty House himself. His progeny’s strike rate does improve form 9.38% first-time to 42.86% by the third run (but drops to 0% on the fourth run, highlighting the limitations of statistics) which is another tenuous positive for Admiralty House. That winning hurdles debut came at Kempton a fortnight ago in a contest won by the yard five times since 2008; including with Mcvicar who followed up in this contest in 2012). A drifter from 2/1 in the morning to 7/2 at the off, Admiralty House took a keen hold in the rear of the field until pulling himself into a prominent position after the third. Without settling fully, he went into a definite lead on the side section of the track before engaging in a prolonged battle up the straight with the reopposing Age Of Sail. Age Of Sail appeared to be edging ahead on the approach to the final flight, but a clumsy jump returned the initiative to Admiralty House who forged a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. In terms of jumping, Admiralty House tended to go to his right (a trait which caused a heft collision at the fourth) and was fairly awkward at the second, the fourth and the last, but he was also neat at times so should be able to improve in that regard. Admiralty House will now have to concede Age Of Sail who was arguably in a position to beat him at Kempton, and his keen going nature could be a concern. Notwithstanding, the course characteristics and pace composition can help mitigate that negative, and the greater scope for improvement is a positive in Admiralty House’s bid to maintain his yard’s decent record in this contest.
Fils de Roi bg Fergal O’Brien j6-1-2 (60.0/132) 113 116
Saint des Saints (Poliglote){31}(0.67) 2/1 Worldbest 72.0 3rd Grand Prix d’Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/fils-de-roi
* French recruit bought out of claimer for €25,056
* Initially trained by Yannick Fouin – 52.63% WR with exports including Ptit Zig, Style de Garde, Riviere d’Etel and Domtaline.
* Winning claimers from French jumps races have 5-14 (35.71%) WR, 4-6 (66.67%) WR when costing over €25,000. First time strike-rate of 3-14, (all trained by David Pipe).
* Fergal O’Brien 26.09% WR, 14.29% SR first time out. Yet to saddle an ex-French jumps recruit but did get dual winner Volkovka out of a French flat claimer. Junior NH winner Tintintin also French sourced.
* Saints des Saints 30.77% WR inc. Monmiral, Le Rocher, Fusil Raffles and 9 others with Juv RPRs 135+ (wouldn’t have been claimers in France)
* Poliglote 33.33% WR as damsire inc. Goshen, Qualando and Magistrato.
* Distaff relatives inc. – 2/1 Worldbest, 0.5 Tengara (2nd 3yo H Enghien), 2/1 Orcantara (3rd Bournosienne), 2/2 Porticello, 2/2 Invicter (2nd Cambaceres), 2/2 Pindare (2nd Des Drags)
* Six races in France, winning once and placing twice.
* Made debut in early June with second to far superior horse. Badly outpaced second time out.
* Can be forgiven chase debut when landing in path of rival at four out, resulting in backside ending up on floor. Quite remarkable that he completed the course. Obstacle was similar to the water jump at Cheltenham’s XC course.
* Dropped to claiming company. Third over 3000m, raced prominently, outpaced, then regained 12l third on run-in.
* Well clear when somehow fell two out in Clairefontaine claiming chase.
* Landed Auteuil 3500m soft ground claimer last time by fifteen lengths. Almost unseated at fifth but otherwise jumped fine. Winning time poor, form worth rating in mid 110s.
* Capable recruit but will almost certainly need trip in due course. Conditions unlikely to suit.
Age Of Sail bg Gary Moore f6-0-2 (76) 83 j2-0-2 (116) 113
Frankel (Pivotal){22-b}(1.06) 0.5 Polarisation 114 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2015
Gelded shortly after his sole outing for Godolphin, where he beat one home in a Goodwood maiden last September, Age Of Sail’s next public appearance came at the Tattersalls February Sale where he fetched 60,000 guineas and joined Joseph Parr. In the space of eighty-two days, running over distances between eight and twelve furlongs, Age Of Sail failed to breach the front two in five outings. Nevertheless, he was never beaten any more than three and a half lengths and ended his stint with a BHA mark of 76. Twice placing fourth in a Windsor maiden and Southwell novice, he ran on well to finish third off 77 on his handicap debut over ten furlongs at Sandown, and might have finished closer when squeezed out in the closing stages at Leicester over an extra two furlongs. His flat stint was capped with a solid enough fifth of fourteen at Newbury and his attentions were turned to hurdles as he moved to Gary Moore’s yard. Another successful trainer in the sphere, Moore has a winner-to-runner rate of 35.91% while sire Frankel has one of 31.25%. A nephew of Lammtarra, jumpers are thin on Age Of Sail’s damline as while half-brother Polarisation finished second on his sole run in the sphere, the nearest winners stem from the fourth dam in King Of The Picts (4/5), Noland (4/5) and Ruzzini (4/6). Introduced at Chepstow last Saturday, Age Of Sail was backed from 5/2 in the morning to 13/8 second-favourite at the off and spent much of the contest held up in fourth of the five runners. Taking closer order at the top of the straight, he briefly held a narrow lead approaching two out, and disputed until his being slow away from the last gave the initiative, and ultimately a near three-length victory to Alan King’s Tuddenham Green (since runner-up in the Wensleydale). His round was reasonable for a debutant, but there was still room for improvement as he was slow away from the same flight on the first circuit, stumbled on landing after the fourth and tight at the next two. The winning time was comparable to the “Free Handicap Hurdle” later on the card (which was more steadily ran) and the form is about as strong as anything seen prior to the Wensleydale in what has been a weak British division thus far. Age Of Sail made his second hurdling appearance at Kempton a fortnight ago where he was sent off the 10/11 favourite. Sweated up before the race, he made the early running at a modest tempo before being headed at the far bend. Turning for home, he went alongside Admiralty House and after a protracted battle, appeared to just edge ahead before stumbling on landing; leaving his rival to eventually win by two lengths. Gary Moore has a record of six wins from forty-one (14.63% SR) at Huntingdon, and won this race in 2004 when it was a maiden contest. The seven pound pull with Admiralty House will be beneficial and Age Of Sail’s Chepstow second is perhaps the stronger form. However, this track may better suit his rival and the application of a visor will probably have to be effective in bringing out improvement in his overall jumping.
Briar Bank bg Toby Lawes f3-0-0 (54) 51 j1-0-0 (-) 72 76
Garswood (Verglas){9-b}(3.00) 1/0 Push Me 104 1st 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (91), Perth 2014
* Little form in three outings on the flat, including a pair of 10 furlong contests at Chelmsford and Sandown in May and June.
* First juvenile hurdler for Toby Lawes.
* Dam won modest Perth handicap. Half-brother and uncle were poor maidens, Classic Fly (1 win from 34) appears at 3/2, Larkwing at 5/3
* Made it 0 winners from 7 for sire Garswood on hurdling debut at Fontwell 30 days ago.
* 66/1, mid division, left behind on turn for home, one paced, won battle for 23¾l fourth after rival blundered at last.
Midnight Train bg Nicky Henderson f10-2-1 (61) 69
Iffraaj (Medicean){1-k}(1.67) 2/2 Ifiandra 56.0 3rd 3400m 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2018
* Rated 54 after three runs over 7f at two, beaten no less than 9¼l on each start
* Started 3yo campaign with narrow victories in handicaps; Windsor 8f, Nottingham 10f (well positioned in slow run race)
* Couple of 4th place finishes over 10f at Lingfield and Sandown sandwiched between modest efforts, including on heavy.
* Last seen finishing second at start of month in Wolverhampton handicap off 60. Last turning in, navigated traffic and stayed on well to finish ½l second.
* Should stay minimum trip, no real attitude concerns and possibly a bit better than official mark.
* Nicky Henderson has outstanding WR of 64.57% since 2004/05, first-time strike rate of 44.44%.
* Only other Clive Cox > Nicky Henderson juvenile was Little Dutch Girl (rare juv winner for sire).
* Many horses have joined Henderson having raced for owner Spence on the flat;- (*list not exhaustive*)
*** Eradicate – Mark Johnton – OR106 – Won on debut before winning two Swinton Hurdles, BHA high of 143
*** Cape Express – Michael Jarvis – OR97 – Won on second start over hurdles, four in total, BHA 136
*** Monetary Fund – Gerard Butler – OR83 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 130
*** Hurricane Higgins – Mark Johnston – OR103 – Won on sole hurdle start
*** Courtesy Call – Mark Johnston – OR86 – 4th Adonis on debut, won third start, BHA 123
*** Hassle – Clive Cox – OR95 – joined as 5yo, BHA 125
*** Nordic Quest – Gerard Butler – OR82 – thrice placed and won on fourth start, BHA 128
*** Grey Blue – Mark Johnston – OR 84 – 3rd debut juvenile, BHA 115
*** Recognition – Roger Varian – OR 70 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 110
*** Soldier In Action – Mark Johnston – OR105 – Won second start as juvenile, BHA 141
*** Fraser Island – Mark Johnston – OR 83 – Won debut as juvenile, BHA 135
*** Progressive – Roger Varian – OR 78 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 121
* Nicky Henderson 7-14 (50%) WR for flat recruits officially rated 70 and lower. Said recruits have 46.15% first-time strike rate.
* Record with juveniles at Huntingdon; r19 w8 p7 (42.11% SR)
* Henderson newcomers at Huntingdon since 2004 – Reaching Out 1st this race in 2005. Monetary Fund 1st, One Lucky Lady 2nd, Divin Bere 1st.
* Iffraaj 14.71% WR, winners include Cerberus, Doubly Clever and Battle Angel. WR rate increases to 23.53% when DI is 1.67 or lower
* Iffraaj improvement rate of 40.91% second highest in field. 54.55% when DI <1.68
* Family of Love (3/2) and Frankel (8/6). Cousin placed over hurdles at four in France. 3/1 Jumeriah Liberty (modest hurdle winner), 3/2 Birds Of Prey (fairly useful triple winner)
Strong prospects
1. Midnight Train
Reasonable prospects
2. Admiralty House
3. Age Of Sail
Feasible prospects
4. Fils de Roi
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
5. Briar Bank
To any new readers. A brief welcome and thank you very much for your curiosity. I research and write about juvenile hurdlers because it is a most underappreciated area of the sport. Underappreciated largely because of the dearth of information readily available to the racing public. To this end, while subscribing to the Historian’s process of using imperfect and patchy evidence to make sense of events, I attempt to lessen some of the mystery within the division. While I predominantly write previews and the likes for myself, I take great delight whenever they help the reader develop a greater appreciation of the sphere.
Nevertheless, I must make it abundantly clear that I AM NOT A TIPSTER. NOTHING I EVER WRITE HAS BEEN A TIP, NOR WILL IT EVER BE. I write solely to inform, never to advise. I do have a prospects list at the bottom, but this is solely to ascertain the strength of my analysis (to see if I am extrapolating the right kind of information from my data). If you ignored this unqualified maxim last season, you would have been a very successful punter. If you have been ignoring it this season, you would be cursing my very existence. To be clear, I very seldom bet on these things so would be appalled to suggest anybody bets on the basis of my work. If you use what you read to inform your punting then good luck and be sensible – but understand that it is entirely of your own volition.
To seasoned readers. You will know that my output is not as consistent as it has been in the past and can often be sporadic. This is because I have considerably less spare time than I did a year and a bit ago. Much as I would love to do long form previews and reviews for every race, the time and energy required does not exist. So, based on feedback I have been receiving for a while, my processes will evolve so that more races can be covered. For the sake of my time (and probably the sanity of many readers), ordinary races will be covered more in note-form. Notwithstanding, because I still prefer long-form, previews for the bigger and more notable races will be gratuitous in their verbosity. If I am feeling generous, I might add tl;dr’s to these because I do want as many people as possible to enjoy my work.
The Wetherby previews offered some indication that this would be coming, and the preview for the upcoming contest at Huntingdon will be a tender step towards brevity. As I have profiles ready written for the Kempton pair, this will be something of a hybrid.
Hope you enjoy and keep in mind that questions, feedback and suggestions are always welcome.
HUNTINGDON – 30th October – Preview
Race History/Stats
* 16 runnings since 2004
* Average winning RPR 116..25 (-2.07 cf. standard)
* Notable participants – Starluck (1st 2008 – 3rd Anniversary, 4th Triumph, future RPR 160), Nyanza (1st 2014 – 1st Aintree Fillies’ Hurdle)
* Newcomers have 14.10% strike rate, experienced horses 6.67% SR
* Previous winners r8-w3-5p
Course Info
* Flat, right handed, galloping track
* Average Winning DI 1.33 (+0.06 cf. standard)
* Clear round 96.38% (+0.32%)
Ground & Pace
* Good, watering to maintain, cloudy with light breeze, slim chance of rain
* Couple have raced prominently but neither are confirmed frontrunners.
* More emphasis on speed rather than stamina
Triumph Odds
Age of Sail 100/1
Admiralty House chg Alan King f7-0-4 (79) 86 j1-1-0 (-) 111 111
Sea The Stars (Tobougg){5-h}(1.00) 2/1 Enchanted Forest 133 3rd 2m Handicap Hurdle (120), Punchestown 2013
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 113 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. He boasts a 30.95% strike rate with juveniles at Huntingdon since 2004, with three winners from seven (McVicar, Nyanza and Twilight Twist) coming in this contest. When it comes to all Alan King self-trained newcomers rated 70 and above, his record of 18 wins from 50 runs is both healthy and substantial. Admiralty House is such a horse, having earned a BHA mark of 79 during a seven race flat career at the yard. Costing 55,000 guineas at a two-year-old breeze-up, and gelded before seeing the track, Admiralty House finished third in a nine furlong Wolverhampton novice stakes in January before going one better at Chelmsford over ten furlongs the following month; getting within a length of King Edward VII runner-up Grand Alliance. Given a near four month break, he returned to finish a good second in a Salisbury maiden over a mile and a half, but pulled too hard for his own good at Newbury and, with the hood applied, at Wolverhampton. His penultimate start saw him post a career best in a ten furlong handicap at Newbury in mid-August. Racing off 76, he took a keen hold once again while held up off a strong pace, but finished strongly within the distance and got to within a head of Cracksman’s brother at the line. However, he reverted to type at Yarmouth on his latest flat start in mid-September when finishing last of ten at Yarmouth having pulled hard and raced awkwardly under pressure. A nephew of Dutch Art (who has a 4.08% strike rate 8.33% improvement rate as a juvenile sire), the damline of Admiralty House consists of maiden jumpers. Half-brother Combarro twice finished runner-up in claiming hurdles as a four-year-old while uncle Enchanted Forest did place in a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival, but was still a twenty-three race maiden. Nevertheless, sire Sea The Stars is a positive attribute as per his winner to runner rate of eleven from thirty-three which includes Stars Over The Sea, Starchitect and Admiralty House himself. His progeny’s strike rate does improve form 9.38% first-time to 42.86% by the third run (but drops to 0% on the fourth run, highlighting the limitations of statistics) which is another tenuous positive for Admiralty House. That winning hurdles debut came at Kempton a fortnight ago in a contest won by the yard five times since 2008; including with Mcvicar who followed up in this contest in 2012). A drifter from 2/1 in the morning to 7/2 at the off, Admiralty House took a keen hold in the rear of the field until pulling himself into a prominent position after the third. Without settling fully, he went into a definite lead on the side section of the track before engaging in a prolonged battle up the straight with the reopposing Age Of Sail. Age Of Sail appeared to be edging ahead on the approach to the final flight, but a clumsy jump returned the initiative to Admiralty House who forged a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. In terms of jumping, Admiralty House tended to go to his right (a trait which caused a heft collision at the fourth) and was fairly awkward at the second, the fourth and the last, but he was also neat at times so should be able to improve in that regard. Admiralty House will now have to concede Age Of Sail who was arguably in a position to beat him at Kempton, and his keen going nature could be a concern. Notwithstanding, the course characteristics and pace composition can help mitigate that negative, and the greater scope for improvement is a positive in Admiralty House’s bid to maintain his yard’s decent record in this contest.
Fils de Roi bg Fergal O’Brien j6-1-2 (60.0/132) 113 116
Saint des Saints (Poliglote){31}(0.67) 2/1 Worldbest 72.0 3rd Grand Prix d’Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/fils-de-roi
* French recruit bought out of claimer for €25,056
* Initially trained by Yannick Fouin – 52.63% WR with exports including Ptit Zig, Style de Garde, Riviere d’Etel and Domtaline.
* Winning claimers from French jumps races have 5-14 (35.71%) WR, 4-6 (66.67%) WR when costing over €25,000. First time strike-rate of 3-14, (all trained by David Pipe).
* Fergal O’Brien 26.09% WR, 14.29% SR first time out. Yet to saddle an ex-French jumps recruit but did get dual winner Volkovka out of a French flat claimer. Junior NH winner Tintintin also French sourced.
* Saints des Saints 30.77% WR inc. Monmiral, Le Rocher, Fusil Raffles and 9 others with Juv RPRs 135+ (wouldn’t have been claimers in France)
* Poliglote 33.33% WR as damsire inc. Goshen, Qualando and Magistrato.
* Distaff relatives inc. – 2/1 Worldbest, 0.5 Tengara (2nd 3yo H Enghien), 2/1 Orcantara (3rd Bournosienne), 2/2 Porticello, 2/2 Invicter (2nd Cambaceres), 2/2 Pindare (2nd Des Drags)
* Six races in France, winning once and placing twice.
* Made debut in early June with second to far superior horse. Badly outpaced second time out.
* Can be forgiven chase debut when landing in path of rival at four out, resulting in backside ending up on floor. Quite remarkable that he completed the course. Obstacle was similar to the water jump at Cheltenham’s XC course.
* Dropped to claiming company. Third over 3000m, raced prominently, outpaced, then regained 12l third on run-in.
* Well clear when somehow fell two out in Clairefontaine claiming chase.
* Landed Auteuil 3500m soft ground claimer last time by fifteen lengths. Almost unseated at fifth but otherwise jumped fine. Winning time poor, form worth rating in mid 110s.
* Capable recruit but will almost certainly need trip in due course. Conditions unlikely to suit.
Age Of Sail bg Gary Moore f6-0-2 (76) 83 j2-0-2 (116) 113
Frankel (Pivotal){22-b}(1.06) 0.5 Polarisation 114 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2015
Gelded shortly after his sole outing for Godolphin, where he beat one home in a Goodwood maiden last September, Age Of Sail’s next public appearance came at the Tattersalls February Sale where he fetched 60,000 guineas and joined Joseph Parr. In the space of eighty-two days, running over distances between eight and twelve furlongs, Age Of Sail failed to breach the front two in five outings. Nevertheless, he was never beaten any more than three and a half lengths and ended his stint with a BHA mark of 76. Twice placing fourth in a Windsor maiden and Southwell novice, he ran on well to finish third off 77 on his handicap debut over ten furlongs at Sandown, and might have finished closer when squeezed out in the closing stages at Leicester over an extra two furlongs. His flat stint was capped with a solid enough fifth of fourteen at Newbury and his attentions were turned to hurdles as he moved to Gary Moore’s yard. Another successful trainer in the sphere, Moore has a winner-to-runner rate of 35.91% while sire Frankel has one of 31.25%. A nephew of Lammtarra, jumpers are thin on Age Of Sail’s damline as while half-brother Polarisation finished second on his sole run in the sphere, the nearest winners stem from the fourth dam in King Of The Picts (4/5), Noland (4/5) and Ruzzini (4/6). Introduced at Chepstow last Saturday, Age Of Sail was backed from 5/2 in the morning to 13/8 second-favourite at the off and spent much of the contest held up in fourth of the five runners. Taking closer order at the top of the straight, he briefly held a narrow lead approaching two out, and disputed until his being slow away from the last gave the initiative, and ultimately a near three-length victory to Alan King’s Tuddenham Green (since runner-up in the Wensleydale). His round was reasonable for a debutant, but there was still room for improvement as he was slow away from the same flight on the first circuit, stumbled on landing after the fourth and tight at the next two. The winning time was comparable to the “Free Handicap Hurdle” later on the card (which was more steadily ran) and the form is about as strong as anything seen prior to the Wensleydale in what has been a weak British division thus far. Age Of Sail made his second hurdling appearance at Kempton a fortnight ago where he was sent off the 10/11 favourite. Sweated up before the race, he made the early running at a modest tempo before being headed at the far bend. Turning for home, he went alongside Admiralty House and after a protracted battle, appeared to just edge ahead before stumbling on landing; leaving his rival to eventually win by two lengths. Gary Moore has a record of six wins from forty-one (14.63% SR) at Huntingdon, and won this race in 2004 when it was a maiden contest. The seven pound pull with Admiralty House will be beneficial and Age Of Sail’s Chepstow second is perhaps the stronger form. However, this track may better suit his rival and the application of a visor will probably have to be effective in bringing out improvement in his overall jumping.
Briar Bank bg Toby Lawes f3-0-0 (54) 51 j1-0-0 (-) 72 76
Garswood (Verglas){9-b}(3.00) 1/0 Push Me 104 1st 2m½f Handicap Hurdle (91), Perth 2014
* Little form in three outings on the flat, including a pair of 10 furlong contests at Chelmsford and Sandown in May and June.
* First juvenile hurdler for Toby Lawes.
* Dam won modest Perth handicap. Half-brother and uncle were poor maidens, Classic Fly (1 win from 34) appears at 3/2, Larkwing at 5/3
* Made it 0 winners from 7 for sire Garswood on hurdling debut at Fontwell 30 days ago.
* 66/1, mid division, left behind on turn for home, one paced, won battle for 23¾l fourth after rival blundered at last.
Midnight Train bg Nicky Henderson f10-2-1 (61) 69
Iffraaj (Medicean){1-k}(1.67) 2/2 Ifiandra 56.0 3rd 3400m 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2018
* Rated 54 after three runs over 7f at two, beaten no less than 9¼l on each start
* Started 3yo campaign with narrow victories in handicaps; Windsor 8f, Nottingham 10f (well positioned in slow run race)
* Couple of 4th place finishes over 10f at Lingfield and Sandown sandwiched between modest efforts, including on heavy.
* Last seen finishing second at start of month in Wolverhampton handicap off 60. Last turning in, navigated traffic and stayed on well to finish ½l second.
* Should stay minimum trip, no real attitude concerns and possibly a bit better than official mark.
* Nicky Henderson has outstanding WR of 64.57% since 2004/05, first-time strike rate of 44.44%.
* Only other Clive Cox > Nicky Henderson juvenile was Little Dutch Girl (rare juv winner for sire).
* Many horses have joined Henderson having raced for owner Spence on the flat;- (*list not exhaustive*)
*** Eradicate – Mark Johnton – OR106 – Won on debut before winning two Swinton Hurdles, BHA high of 143
*** Cape Express – Michael Jarvis – OR97 – Won on second start over hurdles, four in total, BHA 136
*** Monetary Fund – Gerard Butler – OR83 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 130
*** Hurricane Higgins – Mark Johnston – OR103 – Won on sole hurdle start
*** Courtesy Call – Mark Johnston – OR86 – 4th Adonis on debut, won third start, BHA 123
*** Hassle – Clive Cox – OR95 – joined as 5yo, BHA 125
*** Nordic Quest – Gerard Butler – OR82 – thrice placed and won on fourth start, BHA 128
*** Grey Blue – Mark Johnston – OR 84 – 3rd debut juvenile, BHA 115
*** Recognition – Roger Varian – OR 70 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 110
*** Soldier In Action – Mark Johnston – OR105 – Won second start as juvenile, BHA 141
*** Fraser Island – Mark Johnston – OR 83 – Won debut as juvenile, BHA 135
*** Progressive – Roger Varian – OR 78 – Won on debut as juvenile, BHA 121
* Nicky Henderson 7-14 (50%) WR for flat recruits officially rated 70 and lower. Said recruits have 46.15% first-time strike rate.
* Record with juveniles at Huntingdon; r19 w8 p7 (42.11% SR)
* Henderson newcomers at Huntingdon since 2004 – Reaching Out 1st this race in 2005. Monetary Fund 1st, One Lucky Lady 2nd, Divin Bere 1st.
* Iffraaj 14.71% WR, winners include Cerberus, Doubly Clever and Battle Angel. WR rate increases to 23.53% when DI is 1.67 or lower
* Iffraaj improvement rate of 40.91% second highest in field. 54.55% when DI <1.68
* Family of Love (3/2) and Frankel (8/6). Cousin placed over hurdles at four in France. 3/1 Jumeriah Liberty (modest hurdle winner), 3/2 Birds Of Prey (fairly useful triple winner)
Strong prospects
1. Midnight Train
Reasonable prospects
2. Admiralty House
3. Age Of Sail
Feasible prospects
4. Fils de Roi
Moderate prospects
.
Negligible prospects
5. Briar Bank
Colin
At the Start
A very sensible decision, if I may say so, BH.