Juvenile Hurdlers 2022/23

Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate across all juveniles is 9.51%, winner-runner 19.37%, improvement rate 37.08%

Race History/Stats
* Ran each year since at least 2004 (18 runnings)
* Average winning RPR 123.14 (4.82 cf. standard)
* Notable winners –Chic Name (2015: 2.Finale), We Have A Dream (2017: 1.Anniversary), Allmankind (2019: 3.Triumph), Adagio (2020: 2.Triumph), In This World (2021: Beat Fil d’Or in France)
* Notable participants - Galahad Quest (4.2019: 1.Finesse), Biscar Two (3.2004: 2.Finale), Cobra de Mai (5.2015: 153 rated chaser)
* Odds on favs r7w6
* Stamina demands more pronounced than in other races at Warwick – winning Dis 0.78 md, 1.30 mn

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, left-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.37 (+0.10 cf. standard) – much lower in this contest
* Clear round 95.35% (-0.71% standard) – lower third in GB/IRE
* Front runners hold discernible advantage

Ground & Pace
* Good, good to soft in places with heavy rain forecast overnight. Light showers before racing.
* No habitual pacemakers but a few have raced prominently

Charles St bg Fergal O’Brien f9-1-7 (79) 87
Outstrip (Fantastic Light){5-g}(1.12) 2/2 Stag Horn 135 1st Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Warwick 2022
Breeding
* Outstrip 0-3 WR GB/IRE, 0-4 WR France, Exceed And Excel 11.59% WR as grandsire
* Fantastic Light 28% WR, 28.57% Improvement rate as damsire
* Cousin Stag Horn won G2 novice hurdle at this venue, another cousin Saint Riquier won a 2m3f HcH at Warwick after placing 2nd in Prestbury Hurdle
* Other relatives on damline - 2/2 Star Rider (1.2m3f NvHM) 3/2 Fashion Mix (1.3yH) 3/1 Fragrant Mix 58% WR as jumps sire
* First ex-George Boughey to go juvenile hurdling
Trainer
* Fergal O’Brien 29.17% WR, 41.67% (5-12) WR since 2020/21, Two winners from as many races this season.
* First time strike rate 18.18%, four of last ten newcomers won first time
* Charles St set to be trainer’s highest rated GB/IRE flat recruit (dual winner Volkovka rated 81 in France)
* Charles St also most expensive at public auction, fetching 50,000gns at Tatts August (winning debutant Naizagai cost 40,000gns)
* Yard in-form, landed double at Hereford on Monday
Horse
* 50,000gns Tatts August
* Made debut in January when second in 10f Lingfield maiden, off mark six days later in Wolverhampton 1m4f maiden – no subsequent winners
* Gelded and given three month break. Runner-up on five of next seven outings, all at around 12f
* Consistently posted performances worthy of mid-80s ratings but shown to hang and flash tail
* Tried in cheekpieces then blinkers last time out. Left off here on first run in 78 days
* Should stay, happy with ground, highest rated but only few pounds in hand

Forward Flight bg Alan King f7-1-1 (74) 82
Declaration Of War (Silver Hawk){9-f}(1.86) 2/2 Tap Tap Boom 136 4th Prix Pierre de Lassus (G3,4yH), Auteuil 2018
Breeding
* Declatation Of War 0-5 WR 0-15 SR, 25% imp
* Silver Hawk 24.24% WR, 20.83% imp as damsire
* Half-brother to Glide Down (2.JvH Mras), cousin of winners Tap Tap Boom (above), Thumbs Up, Turf Trivia 101 36-4-8 (4 jumps wins each) and Dark Equation (1.New York Turf Writers Cup Hurdle)
Trainer
* Alan King 113 winning juveniles since 2004/05 – highest in GB/IRE, 47.88% WR, 50.60 imp
* First time out – 26.07% strike rate. 27.47% self-trained flat recruits, 35.29% (r51-w18) when rated 70+ (1 faller)
* Warwick record; r48-w16-p15, record in this contest r10-w5-p3 (r4-w1-p1 with ex-flat debutants)
* Tom Bellamy 14.10% SR, 100% CR FTO, 3-11 Alan King juvs FTO, all Alan King r491-w65 13.24%
Horse
* Thrice raced at 2yo, beaten no less than 8¾l. Gelded over winter
* Won on return/handicap debut, landing 4 runner Yarmouth mile off 74 – set steady tempo, kept on when challenged. Runner-up 2nd next time, 3rd won 3 starts later
* Beaten 9l, 12½l and 36l next three outings. Given to pulling hard. Different mounting strategies along with hood (left off) employed

Non Stop bg Joe Tizzard f8-1-2 (67) 71
Starspangledbanner (Authorized){23}(0.33) 3/1 Moon Indigo 138 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Chase, Wetherby 2011
Breeding
* Starspangledbanner 30% WR, 57.14% imp, Authorized 27.78% WR as damsire
* 2/1 Arabian Sun, Ride The Lightning, Resplendent Light; all modest maidens, as was cousin Abertillery, 3/1 Moon Indigo (above) closest winner. 3/3 Thorpe
Trainer
* Joe Tizzard’s first juvenile hurdler. Colin Tizzard 37.5% WR, 5-10 WR flat recruits, 0-1 Self trained. r14-w1 FTO, r3-w0 Warwick
Horse
* €26,000 yearling at Goffs Sportsman’s
* Thrice beaten over 7f last Autumn at Chepstow and Kempton (x2), earning BHA of 59. Gelded over winter
* Denied by head on return/hcp debut over Lingfield 7f in May; setting strong pace, headed by fast finisher on line
* Never going at Salisbury over 6f, but off mark in Lingfield 8f Hcp off 62; good pace, prominent on outer, kicked clear home turn, always doing enough to win by ¾l and 1¾l
* Runner-up eventual winner, 3rd placed next time, 4th and 5th multiple subsequent wins
* Off for 53 days, returned with ¾l third of thirteen in Kempton 1m handicap off 66, prominent at solid tempo, kept on but just outpaced final furlong (not slowing down)
* Below par when last seen 69 days ago over same C&D, no obvious excuse and no explanation offered
* Untried beyond mile but racing style and pedigree suggest he should improve for trip. Yard had three winners (all favs) and a second Monday. Plausible pace angle.

Romancero le Dun bg Jane Williams Unraced
Spanish Moon (Fragrant Mix){7}(1.40) 1/0 Uranus Le Dun 61.0 3rd Prix Finot (L), Auteuil 2011
Breeding
* Spanish Moon 44.44% WR in GB/IRE, 10.17% WR in France
* Dam listed placed at 3 in France, 0.5 Falbala le Dun (1.4yH Com), 0.5 Italiaana le Dun (4-0-3), 3/2 Salsaretta (2.de Chambly; 3yHLM, 149 rated chaser), 3/2 Breaken (2.Frascati)
Trainer
* Jane Williams 35.71% WR. 4-11 36.36% WR unraced
* Nick & Jane Williams 16-56 28.57% WR unraced inc. Reve de Sivola, Me Voici, Urbain de Sivola, Siruh du Lac & Erick Le Rouge.
* Unraced newcomers from yard 7.55% FTO strike rate (2.49% for all trainers)
* Jane Williams at Warwick r4-w2-p1
Horse
* Unraced, €3,000 not sold at Arqana Summer Sale 2021

Vaxholm bg J S Moore f21-3-3 (48) 61
Estidhkaar (Yeats){1-k}(0.78) 3/1 Ptarmigan Lodge 111 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle, Navan 1996
Breeding
* Estidhkaar 0-9 WR, 0-27 SR, Yeats 0-1 as damsire, 3-23 (13.04%) WR sire
* Closest winning relative Ptarmigan Lodge (above), distant relatives Le Moss (5/1), Our Conor (5/4), Kempes (5/5)
Trainer
* Stan Moore 0-19 WR, 0-37 SR
Horse
* Won three from five on AW between October and January, the last being a 10f Lingfield handicap off 57.
* Nine runs since without a place
* Can run freely. Plenty to find with all, even on best form

Victory bg Alan King f9-1-3 (77) 81
Churchill (Champs Elysees){9-e}(0.91) 0.5 I Doubt That 90 10th 2m Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Navan 2022
Breeding
* Churchill first crop, 16.2hh, 2 winners from 5 to date (The Churchill Lad, Scriptwriter)
* Family of Zafonic (3/2), close jumps relatives of little note, Maze Runner (3/4) useful juvenile, Nearby (4/3) winning novice
Trainer
* Alan King 113 winning juveniles since 2004/05 – highest in GB/IRE, 47.88% WR, 50.60 imp
* First time out – 26.07% strike rate. 27.47% self-trained flat recruits, 35.29% (r51-w18) when rated 70+ (1 faller)
* Warwick record; r48-w16-p15, record in this contest r10-w5-p3 (r4-w1-p1 with ex-flat debutants)
* Tom Cannon 10.4% SR, 96.9% CR FTO, 6-33 juvs Alan King FTO, all Alan King 802-108 13.47%
Horse
* 57,000gns Tatts December Foals
* Beaten no less than 6l on first four starts at 2yo
* Improved keeping on 3rd in 1m Kempton nursery before closing season with win in similar contest off 70
* Narrowly failed to win at Doncaster 1m2f off 76 on reappearance
* Matched effort on penultimate outing at Windsor when rallying to reclaim 2½l 2nd over 1m3½f – form not working out
* Three month break, never better than midfield when last seen at Kempton 41 days ago
* Should stay, no real temperament concerns, possible preference for good ground

Lemon Ice chf Sean Curran f6-0-1 (61) 69 j1-0-0 (-) 61 57
Mastercraftsman (Galileo){8-f}(0.60) 2/2 Next Bend 122 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (104), Navan 2017
Breeding
* Mastercraftsman 25-93 26.88% WR (3rd highest number of winners since 2004/05 behind Galileo and Montjeu)
* Cousin a fair winner (above), half-siblings Crecerelle and Abstract winless in 16 combined over jumps. 4/4 Cerberus
Trainer
* Sean Curran 3-23 13.04% WR | 0-22 FTO, 2-13 15.38% 2TO
Source
* ex-Johnny Murtaghs 1-18 5.56% WR
Horse
* Sole instance of finishing within 9l of winner came on penultimate flat outing when ½l 3rd of 10 in 1m5f Down Royal handicap off 63
* Only runner in field with hurdling experience, which came in Stratford Maiden four weeks ago
* 14/1 (28/1 at one point in morning), in rear, in trouble halfway and detached shortly afterwards, stayed on for 43l third behind two subsequent winners
* Hopped at a couple but not offensively bad at jumping. Still needs considerable improvement here.

Strong prospects
1. Non Stop
Reasonable prospects
2. Charles St
3. Victory
4. Romancero le Dun
Feasible prospects
5. Forward Flight
Moderate prospects
6. Lemon Ice
Negligible prospects
7. Vaxholm
 
Cheers, BH.

Re Tanganyika which ran the other day, do you have any sort of conversion rule of thumb from French juvenile ratings to UK ones?

I ask because Tanganyika had a rating in France of 61.5[kg] which is, of course, 135 in pounds. He was running off something like 120 the other day which was why I liked him as an outsider bet but he ran like a coo.
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
Cheers, BH.

Re Tanganyika which ran the other day, do you have any sort of conversion rule of thumb from French juvenile ratings to UK ones?

I ask because Tanganyika had a rating in France of 61.5[kg] which is, of course, 135 in pounds. He was running off something like 120 the other day which was why I liked him as an outsider bet but he ran like a coo.
Click to expand...

Hi Dessie,

The BHA used to do direct translations, which would be reasonable with older horses, but grossly unfair for those earning their ratings as juveniles.

I have tried to figure this out for myself, but have not reached any definitive conclusions. Using a sample of 131 juveniles with valeurs who raced at least three times as juveniles in UK and Ireland, I found that the differences between the valeurs and seasonal best RPRs were;

All juveniles
18.4lbs mean
14.0lbs median (across all horses)
16.2lbs median (horse by horse)

Winning juveniles
9.37lbs mean
6.20lbs median (all)
7.80lbs median (h/h)

Hopefully, that is more satisfactory for yourself than it is for me!
 
Thanks all :)

If nothing else, I think I have finally shaken that Hill Station silks carrying monkey off my back, which feels better than I would like to admit!

I appreciate nobody mentioning the £98 trifecta. It is good that we all remember that I am not a tipster :)

MUSSELBURGH - 2nd NOVEMBER
Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate across all juveniles is 9.51%, winner-runner 19.37%, improvement rate 37.08%, clear round 96.12%

Race History/Stats
* Ran as maiden since 2019, juvenile held on card since 2012, no race 2017
* Average seasonal winning RPR 115.39 (-2.93 cf. standard)
* Most notable winners – Sir Chauvelin (2015: 3.Scottish Triumph, 3. Summit), Collingham (2021: 2.Chatteris Fen), both owned by Jimmy Fyffe; not represented this year.
* Winning DI 0.86 much lower than course average
* Six of nine runnings won by debutants (SR 18.75%), all of whom rated 76+ on flat

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, right-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.33 (+0.06 cf. standard) – much lower in this contest
* Clear round 96.06% (+0.20% standard) – Very average
* Clear round rate for newcomers 96.95% - top ten of fair hurdling tracks relative to experienced horses
* Front runners hold discernible advantage

Ground & Pace
* Good to soft, chance of rain overnight, heavy rain forecast by midday.
* My Brother Jack made running on both hurdles starts to date and has no obvious challenger for lead

My Brother Jack bg Ollie Pears f9-1-0 (53) 60 j2-0-2 (111) 108 115
Decorated Knight (Sri Pekan){19}(0.71) 2/2 Zeloso 90 1st 2m3½f Handicap Hurdle (85), Hereford 2002
Breeding
* Decorated Knight first crop. DI 0.73, Height 1.65m (good), 3x1.G1 inc Irish Champion Stakes.
* 22/32 Galileo sires produced winning juveniles, 27.46% WR as grandsire
* Sri Pekan 2/25 WR as damsire. Family of Acropolis (2/2), M-Lolshan (3/1) and Vinnie Roe (3/3)
* Close relatives achieved little over hurdles, cousins Head Gardner and Zeloso won at minor level
* Half-brother “Dubs” currently lives in Greater Manchester and is a very silly boy; doing his legs in after jumping out of his field and going on a mad gallop. Thankfully his bandages are off now, and observers noted that if he had something to jump, he probably would have won a race or two…
Trainer & Jockey
* Prior to My Brother Jack, Ollie Pears had 6 juvs race 9 times without any collecting prizemoney; although none had fallen or unseated
* Brian Harding 9/48 18.75% SR on juvs at Musselburgh; inc. from front on Fiveandtwenty (x3), Project Bluebook, Forth Bridge and Rutherglen. Prominent on others.
Horse
* Gelded prior to debut and winless in 8 prior to winning 5-runner 1m6f Wolverhampton Handicap off 52
* 25/1>50/1 morning, started 33/1 on hurdling debut in Sedgefield maiden late September. Somewhat warm beforehand
* Raced enthusiastically from front without pulling too hard, disputed along back, readily left behind by winner approaching last but battled gamely for second
* Jumped quick and neat with only minor errors at third and seventh
* Winner produced arguably strongest form seen to date in France next time, third previously second to subsequent valuable US winner, fourth easy winner at Wetherby nto
* Returned for another Sedgefield maiden 17 days ago, starting steady 9/4 second favourite
* Made running once again, setting stronger pace than on debut
* Headed approaching last, did not go down without fight. 102 flat-rated perhaps had bit more than 2¼l in hand
* Winning pace and time creditable compared to maiden hurdle on card (2nd rated 114)

Noble Anthem bg Archie Watson f6-2-0 (86) 92
Starspangledbanner (Montjeu){13-b}(0.60) 2/1 Changing The Guard 148 1st 2m½f Handicap Chase (137), Newton Abbot 2014
Breeding
* Starspangledbanner 4/11 36.36% WR, 57.14% IMP set to increase
* Montjeu 2nd only to Galileo for winners and leader for wins as sire. 24.32% WR as damsire
* Family of Spinning Queen (2/1 – 1.Sun Chariot), Nephew of Changing The Guard (above) and Shannon Springs (1.3mMdH). 2/2 Braganza, 3/1 Monasteroris
Trainer
* Predominantly a flat trainer (won Champions Sprint with Glen Shiel), 17/55 all jumps runners (30.91% SR)
* Sole juvenile, Alazwar, was Shadwell dispersal who won junior bumper on debut before 3rd in maiden hurdle on only start
* Latest two hurdlers were winners (Fakenham and Carlisle last week)
* Former inmates have 3/10 WR in juvenile hurdles, Noble Anthem highest rated by 5lbs
Horse
* Green when 9th on debut in Wood Ditton.
* Still green but ultimately won with bit to spare second time out in 1m Thirsk novice; 3rd, 5th, 7th and 9th won within next three starts
* Not disgraced when 4th of 14 behind Eldar Eldarov at Newcastle, then won 5-runner 1m2f (gf) Ayr handicap in early July off 85; edged slightly under pressure but still battled well against experienced rival
* Was kicking off at start before running no race in first time cheekpieces back at Ayr later that month
* Gelded and better behaved when last seen at Kempton five weeks ago but still ran flat in finishing a 10l last of 13
* Withdrawn from Tattersalls Autumn HIT sale last week

Soleil de Cannes Iain Jardine f1-0-0 TF41 j2-0-1 89 92+
Quick Martin (Alhaarth){1-l}(0.60) 0.5 Carlain 67.0 3rd Prix Ferdinand Dufaure (G1,4yC), Auteuil 2012
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/soleil-de-cannes
Profile written for prospects piece
Making his racecourse bow on the all-weather at Chantilly in February, Soleil de Cannes was slow away and lacked the pace to pass any rival before finishing tailed off. Three weeks later, he took in the division’s curtain raiser, the Prix d’Essai des Poulains, at Compiegne. His starting price of 77/1 reflected his form and profile, although his pedigree is more befitting of a jumper. First crop sire Quick Martin’s career highlight was a second in a four-year-old conditions hurdle at Auteuil, although he is a half-brother to smart sorts Oklahoma Seven and Sierra Nevada. In one of breeding’s oddities, the distaff side is actually more compelling as Soleil de Cannes’ half-brother, Carlain, finished third in the Champion Chase for four-year-olds while uncle Honneur Au Roi won listed chase for four-year-olds at Enghien. In his Compiegne bow, Soleil de Cannes finishing a near forty length eleventh was in keeping with his starting price. Racing just behind the leaders, he was slow and awkward at times and while he was still in contention leaving the back, was badly outpaced when the race developed before being allowed to come home in his own time. Gelded afterwards, he returned to Compiegne at the end of March in calmer waters for a claiming hurdle. A 14/1 shot in a field of seven, he was held up in touch but still given to big and slow jumps throughout his round. He found himself outpaced once again but managed to improve from sixth to second between the final two flights before finishing four lengths clear of the remainder without posing the remotest threat to the winner. After the race, Soleil de Cannes was claimed for €23,506 by Tobias Jones to join an as yet unnamed British trainer. Those brought out of French jumps claimers have a perfectly respectable winner to runner rate of 25.64%, and former trainer David Windrif has been responsible for four exported juveniles including the winner Un Guet Apens. Soleil de Cannes’ form is difficult to rate much higher than 90 at this juncture, although the claimer was given something of a boost when the fourth placed Jeu Tentant won a Fontainebleau claimer next time. There may be a moderate enough race for him during the early season, although he shapes as though likely to eventually do better in handicaps over further.
Update
* Since joined Iain Jardine for £25,000 via Charlie Mann at the Goffs UK Spring sale
* Form looking better than at time, with winner Jereviendrai winning a listed chase, 4th placed Jeu Tentant adding Auteuil and Compiegne claimers to his tally, and the 5th also winning a couple of races
* Iain Jardine 3/21 14.29% WR, 1/20 SR first time out. Yet to saddle ex-French recruit in division
* Only trainer in line-up with winning juv at Musselburgh; albeit at rate of 1 from 19
* Three wins and two places from last seven runners on flat

Ancora bf Ewan Whillans Unraced
Amaron (Law Society){20-c}(2.27) 1/0 Ajesha 2x1st 4500m Listed Chase, Baden-Baden 2007
Breeding
* First UK/IRE juvenile for Amaron, 1/4 WR with French 3yo jumpers; Piste d’Etoiles won minor race at Jarnac
* 1.64m (decent height) DI 2.00, 9x1.between 7 and 9f including G1 at San Siro. Cousin of 5 winning jumpers including Luxstar (3.Robert Lejeune)
* Shamardal 21.54% WR as grandsire
* Law Society 8/34 23.53% WR as damsire. Dam won pair of listed chases in Germany
* Niece of Apollo Star (multiple group winner over mile in Germany), jumpers Aratan and Areal appear at 4/2 on damline
Trainer
* First juvenile for Ewan Whillans, who took over from father Alistair. Alistair 0/14 WR in division, 100% CR
* Ewan without winner for 32 days
Horse
* Unraced, cost £12,000 at Goffs Yorton Sale in 2021

Silver Vision grf Stuart Coltherd f8-0-0 (50) 64 j2-0-0 (-) 78 75
Muhaarar (Pivotal){8-d}(1.11) 0.5 Cubomania 148 2nd Dan Moore Memorial Handicap Chase (A,139), Fairyhouse 2019
Breeding
* Muhaarar 2/10 WR, 16.67% imp
* Half-sister to useful Cubomaina; effective on all ground up to 2m4f
* Other jumps relatives inc. (2/2) Coldstream, (2/3) Battling Bessie, (3/3) Brazil, (4/2) Diakali, (4/3) Divapour
Source
* ex-Roger Varian 31.25% WR, none with juv RPR exceeding 120, 25% imp
Trainer
* 1/6 16.67% WR; winner Dequall awarded Carlisle handicap running off 97
Horse
* Made debut last Autumn for Roger Varian, finished within 3l of winner at Kempton and Wolverhampton in February (rated 63 for hcp debut at latter)
* Beat one rival from twenty and beaten 26,12 and 33l for Jackie Stephen
* Both hurdling starts came at Sedgefield behind My Brother Jack.
* First-time hood, 66>100/1, held up in touch, began to lose ground leaving back, beaten 31l
* Untidy jump then hampered at second, saddle slipped, pulled up

Strong prospects
1. My Brother Jack
Reasonable prospects
2. Soleil de Cannes
3. Noble Anthem
Feasible prospects
.
Moderate/Negligible prospects
4. Silver Vision
5. Ancora
 
Bachelors Hall said:
Hi Dessie,

The BHA used to do direct translations, which would be reasonable with older horses, but grossly unfair for those earning their ratings as juveniles.

I have tried to figure this out for myself, but have not reached any definitive conclusions. Using a sample of 131 juveniles with valeurs who raced at least three times as juveniles in UK and Ireland, I found that the differences between the valeurs and seasonal best RPRs were;

All juveniles
18.4lbs mean
14.0lbs median (across all horses)
16.2lbs median (horse by horse)

Winning juveniles
9.37lbs mean
6.20lbs median (all)
7.80lbs median (h/h)

Hopefully, that is more satisfactory for yourself than it is for me!
Click to expand...

Indeed, it is greatly appreciated, BH.

I take it the poundage refers to the amount behind the French ratings when racing here.

I would also then presume that someone at the BHA has done similar research and come up with similar conclusions, thereby explaining why the likes of Tanganyika was able to run off a comparatively low mark.

... and why I was throwing money away in backing the fvcker. :lol:

Thanks again.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Indeed, it is greatly appreciated, BH.

I take it the poundage refers to the amount behind the French ratings when racing here.

I would also then presume that someone at the BHA has done similar research and come up with similar conclusions, thereby explaining why the likes of Tanganyika was able to run off a comparatively low mark.

... and why I was throwing money away in backing the fvcker. :lol:

Thanks again.
Click to expand...

It does indeed refer to behind.

For what it's worth, I had him down as a 124 horse when I did a profile for him last year. Two mile on good ground would not have suited but provided he is sound, calms down and jumps better (asking a fair bit) he could be well treated off his new mark.
 
HEREFORD 8th NOVEMBER
Race History/Stats
* Though there have been fillies maidens at Hereford during the months of August, September and February, only two took place in November (2007 & 2018)
* Giving Glances was the 3/10 favourite when making a winning hurdling debut for Alan King in the latest running
* Giving Glances only juvenile filly to have won a pattern race after competing at Hereford; (the listed fillies’ race at Doncaster)
* Raffles Gitane placed in Cheltenham’s juvenile fillies’ handicap. Norma Hill and Alikat eventually earned RPRs exceeding 130

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, right-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.34 (+0.07 cf. standard), sharper side of average
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR 108.73 – sixth lowest in UK
* Clear round 95.31% (-0.75% standard) – lower third in UK/IRE
* Clear round rate for newcomers 90.67% - fourth lowest in UK
* Front runners hold discernible advantage
* ex-French hurdlers have 35.71% SR; 6th of 39 UK/IRE courses with 10+ runners
* ex-French hurdlers making their UK debuts as juveniles; 3 wins from 6 (Star de Mohaison, Giorgio Quercus, Raffles Gitane)

Ground & Pace
* Good, good to soft in places, showers overnight, rain in morning
* Couple have raced close but Cianciana only made running on one occasion, La Referi led for 2f on sole start – could be speed test if none take initiative

Cape Helles bf Donald McCain f5-1-0 (73) 77 j1-0-1 (-) 96 101
Australia (Danehill Dancer){6-e}(0.63) 0.5 Evening Hush 129 2nd Finale Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Chepstow 2016
As far as juvenile hurdling damlines are concerned, Cape Helles possesses one of the more appropriate ones for the division. Half-sister Evening Hush finished second in the Grade One Finale Hurdle, cousin Wolf Prince finished second in the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle, and another cousin, Sonoran Sands, won twice in the sphere. Basalt (2/1), Fleeting Moment (2/2), Sayeh (3/1) and Hired Hand (3/1) are other successful closely-related jumpers. Sire Australia also has a solid record in the division with a 22.73% winner-to-runner rate from his first three crops. Cape Helles was unraced as a two-year-old and started her career in a Newcastle maiden over a mile in March. Starting at 20/1, she was unsuited by the trip and pace, but emerged with some credit in failing by a short-head to grab third. The following month at Haydock over the same trip, she ran to a similar level but was unable to take advantage of her prominent position at the head of a muddling pace; fading to finish a nine-length seventh behind Nashwa. Cape Helles broke her duck at the third time of asking in a nine-furlong Carlisle maiden towards the end of May. The subject of strong support throughout the day, starting at 17/2 having been 50/1 during the morning, Cape Helles broke well and while having to be niggled along early on, was able to race in a handy position. Turning for home within striking range, she took the lead off the better travelling favourite approaching the final furlong and stayed on to hold her rival by three-quarters of a length at the line. Though Cape Helles showed a likeable attitude in front, the runner-up almost certainly failed to give best. While the remainder of the field were upwards of five lengths behind, the performance did not warrant a rating of 77 and this played out in her two subsequent outings in handicap company. She was not disgraced at Ripon next time as despite her being beaten seven lengths, raced prominently in a strongly run race from which the first and third won next time out. However, she did finish weakly ten weeks prior to her hurdling debut when an eight length last of five at Doncaster in a twelve furlong fillies’ contest. Cape Helles spent her flat career with Donald McCain, and became the twelfth such horse to go juvenile hurdling; among which she is the third highest rated behind Navajo Pass (85) and Goobinator (82). Three of the previous eleven won during their juvenile campaigns (the two aforementioned along with the 63 rated Ormesher) and all three would also do so at the first time of asking. All told, she had a promising profile ahead of her hurdling debut at Market Rasen forty-five days ago. Based on the yard’s record with self-trained hurdling newcomers, the ten week absence ought not have been a major concern; even if that record improves with race fitness. Cape Helles had plenty going for her on pedigree and was not harshly treated in what was a modest renewal of the Class 2 contest. Furthermore, Donald McCain’s record with juvenile newcomers at Market Rasen stood at two wins and three placings from eleven and with the yard absolutely flying at the time, a good showing would have come as no surprise. The market echoed these sentiments as she was backed from an opening show of 7/2 to 15/8 at the off. However, her performance was a rather disappointing one. Tracking the leading pair off a solid tempo, Cape Helles was the last one to hang onto the winner leaving the back, and was just within a length passing the three furlong pole before beginning to struggle; ultimately faltering on the run-in to lose second place and finish nearly nine lengths behind the winner. She travelled comfortably enough and though slow at the second and close at the fourth, put in a reasonable round of jumping. The winner has since been bitterly disappointing on her two subsequent outings, and the time does little to suggest that the race was any better than average. Coming into this race with disappointing efforts to her name, finishing weakly on each occasion, Cape Helles has questions to answer. However, the potential pace set up of this race does afford her profile some respite.

Cianciana chf Brian Ellison f15-2-4 (67) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 98 105
Cityscape (Three Valleys){1-w}(1.00) 2/1 Duke Of Bronte 125 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Hurdle, Doncaster 2022
Breeding
* Cityscape 0/12 WR, 0/29 SR, 2/6 33.3% IMP
* Three Valleys 1/4 WR, 2/2 IMP
* Family of Boreas (3/1), niece of winning jumpers Duke Of Bronte and Taws, placed jumper Mandatum 3/1
Trainer
* Brian Ellison 30.43% WR
* Self-trained recruits rated 62+ 17.65% SR first time out, 21.43% SR second time out
Horse
* 15 races on flat, starting over 5f last June
* Off the mark on fifth attempt in Newcastle nursery last December over 1m off 52
* Runner up on four of next seven outings, including on turf in 1m2f handicaps at Nottingham and Newmarket off 59
* Doubled tally when landing Newcastle 1m2f handicap off 62, responding well for pressure to win by 1½l
* Unsuited by slow pace at Redcar and outclassed under overweight in racing league final flat start.
* Minimum trip no concern, settles when solid pace, can wander but responds to pressure
* Made hurdling debut at Sedgefield three weeks ago in maiden won by yard with newcomer in 2019
* Steady 7/1 4th fav of 10, started in midfield but jumping errors cost her ground; hopping, skewing and going to right
* Stayed on past beaten horses straight to finish 5l third, somewhat flattered by proximity to Scriptwriter (rated 102 on flat) and My Brother Jack (runner-up either side)
* Should have learned and may do better going right handed

Dixon Cove bf Paul Nicholls j3-0-3 (65.0) 120 121+
Earl Of Tinsdal (Dansili){19-b}(0.82) 2/1 The Giant Bolster 168 3rd Cheltenham Gold Cup (G1), Cheltenham 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/dixon-cove
Profile from prospects piece
Since 2004/05, Paul Nicholls has had 189 juvenile hurdlers under his care, coming from a vast array of sources. Six were fillies who gained hurdling experience in France, with five of those winning at least once during their initial campaigns; including Malaya – landed the 2017 Wensleydale and finished second in the Adonis, R de Rien Sivola (2nd 2008 Prestbury), Pepite de Soleil (2nd 2008 Finale), and Bold Fire (2nd 2006 Victor Ludorum). The latest Ditcheat requisition, Dixon Cove, will be their first from Philippe Peltier; a trainer whose six exported juveniles resulted in three winners headed by Balder Succes, and Tout est Permis. Dixon Cove has an interesting, if peculiar, pedigree for a juvenile hurdler. Sire Earl of Tinsdal was a three time Group One winner over middle distances in Germany and Italy. Like his sire, Black Sam Bellamy, Earl of Tinsdal stands at an imposing 16.2hh and also has form on heavy ground. A nephew of placed hurdlers in Central Europe, Earl of Tinsdal has had few representatives under either code, although he did get his first jumps winner in July when Roxalagu won at Bad Harzburg. On the distaff side, Dixon Cove’s most compelling relative is her uncle The Giant Bolster; twice placed in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and another son of Black Sam Bellamy. Prior to this year, Shanandoa (2/1), who took low grade handicaps at Stratford and Uttoxeter, was the only other winning jumper although there have been two more three-year-olds this term in Moon Dawn (2/2) and Winteriscoming (3/2). Dixon Cove herself has yet to find the winners enclosure, but has reached the frame at Auteuil in all three outings to date. Her first racecourse appearance came in March for the Prix Auricula; a debutants contest which has been used as a launchpad for the likes of Tarla, Pepite Rose, Gitane du Berlais, Elimay and Stormy Ireland. Sent off amongst the outsiders in a field of twelve, Dixon Cove was held up in rear and her early jumping was marked by big and cautious leaps. She became more fluent when taking a midfield position along the back; a position she still held turning for home. Little ground was made on the leaders between the final two hurdles, although the field did dissipate around her and despite an ungainly style under pressure, was able to snatch a near five-length third at the line. With none of the first five home starting at single-digit prices, the form did not look strong at the time and while the sixth won at Dieppe next time, the winner finished some twenty-five lengths behind Gala Marceau on her second outing. Dixon Cove’s second outing came in the Prix Champoreau; a conditions race in which the aforementioned Malaya finished second in 2017. Starting the 2/1 second favourite of six, Dixon Cove was once again held up towards the rear and though more confident over the first three flights, she was steady and close at the fourth. While big when reaching at the next and landing steeply, the pace was such that she was vying for second place along the back and was within a length of the lead over the penultimate flight. While she managed to get the measure of the pacesetter after the last, she never managed to hit the front herself; although with the rail to help, she did regain second place on the run-in and finished within a length of the winner. Dixon Cove’s final outing came in the third week of May for the Groupe III Prix Sagan. The focal point of the fillies’ Spring season, the Sagan has been contested by useful exports in Tarla, Sway, Kotkikova and Elimay, as well as Cambaceres winners Chimere du Berlais and Tanais du Chenet, and Roll On Has who would take the Alain du Breil. This year’s renewal was not a vintage one; as per the absences of Gala Marceau and Panther du Berlais along with the fact that the only previous winner in the line-up did so in a claimer. Sent off the 3/1 favourite of eight, Dixon Cove took up her customary position towards the rear and made minor errors along the way such as hopping and being slow away from several flights. She was in touch rounding the final bend but a slow jump to her right at two out exacerbated her lack of pace. Another awkward jump at the last left her treading water, although she did manage to reclaim an eleven length third close to the line. The first two since upheld the form to a degree in the listed Prix d’Iena; finishing second and third while giving weight to the winner. Much like her new stable companion Blueking d’Oroux, Dixon Cove brings French form which, while good, places her behind some of the best in the division. There is nothing preventing her from mixing it in decent company and the shedding of her maiden tag in an ordinary race looks assured. Notwithstanding, based on her pedigree and all racecourse evidence to date, Dixon Cove would more likely be one with the long-term in mind.
Update
The Prix Sagan form is not leading the way in France, but it still has a place at the head table of the fillies’ division. The front pair (Villa Rica and Angela du Berlais) filled the first two in the Groupe III Prix Magne, while fourth placed Rose Secrete won a minor chase at Segre. As per recent stable tours, Dixon Cove is being aimed for the Listed Fillies’ Juvenile at Aintree (a race in which the yard’s Malaya finished second) and she would have much the strongest chance of the home contingent based on everything seen to date. Nicholls has won 21 from 52 in past fortnight while Harry Cobden has a 30.7% SR with juveniles. Pace has potential to be a concern but holds a significant class advantage.

Highland Lass chf Richard Price f4-0-0 (10) 0
Highland Reel (Dubawi){4-k}(0.79) 2/1 Crazy Queen 89 5th 2m 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2016
Breeding
* First crop sire Highland Reel has had two winners from six to date. Dubawi has a 33.33% WR as both a sire (5/15) and a damsire (7/21)
* Despite strong sirelines, damline is moderate. Sole nearby jumper (above) unplaced in 12 starts.
Trainer
* Richard Price has 1/11 WR, In The Crowd (ex-Alan Swinbank) winning twice in 2012/13 (Warwick 2nd start, Wincanton Handicap on 4th)
* 3/5 (60%) improved on flat rating as juveniles
Horse
* Cost 1,000gns Tatts Autumn 2021
* Failed to record RPR or TF figure in four starts since debut in May, beaten 35, 96, 54 and 37 lengths

La Referi chf Nigel Hawke f1-0-0 (-) 29
Pride Of Dubai (Teofilo){5-f}(1.15) 2/1 Novis Adventus 136 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (119), Worcester 2018
Breeding
* Sire Pride Of Dubai dual G1 winning 2yo in Australia. Sole juvenile to date (Lifetime Legend) runner-up in modest Wetherby contest.
* Grandsire Street Cry 1/3 WR (Estinaad 2013)
* Teofilo 8/32 (25%) WR as damsire, 32.61% WR as sire
* Uncle Novis Adventus three time winning hurdler (started at 5yo), cousin New Reality made winning debut as juvenile for Hawke having left Bolger
Trainer
* Nigel Hawke 18.31% WR, 30% IMP
* 4.29% SR, 90% clear round first time out
Source
* Jim Bolger 25.84% WR, 38.18% IMP
* Bolger>Hawke 7/13 53.85% WR including 50 rated Peat Moss, 50% improvement, 2/13 SR first time (New Reality fortunate winner)
Horse
* Sole flat outing late August, 1m Chepstow novice stakes, wore tongue tie
* Green, led for 2f, weakened at distance, beaten 19l

Outstanding prospects
1. Dixon Cove
Reasonable prospects
.
Feasible prospects
2. Cianciana
3. Cape Helles
Moderate prospects
4. La Referi
Negligible prospects
5. Highland Lass
 
PRESTBURY HURDLE
Cheltenham’s Prestbury Hurdle will be the first graded contest of the season in the division. For as long as there has been a Mackesons Gold Cup, a juvenile hurdle has also been held at the meeting. Prior to its elevation to Grade 2 status in 2004, the last two horses to place in both the Prestbury and the Triumph were Katarino, winner of both events on 1998/99, and Against The Grain who was second in each contest during the 1984/85 season. However, since 2004, the race has produced two Triumph winners (Katchit 2006/07, Defi du Seuil 2016/17), five Triumph seconds (Fair Along 2005/06, Franchoek 2007/08, Barizan 2009/10, Far West 2012/13 and Adagio 2020/21) and another five who would finish third. Indeed, while the Finesse and Adonis have produced three winners of the Triumph, the Prestbury has been the most prolific British Triumph Hurdle trial in terms of combined wins and placings. Furthermore, since 2004, the Prestbury also had seven Finale winners, four winners of the Anniversary, and another three in Punchestown’s Champion 4YO contest. Five Prestbury graduates ran into a place in the Fred Winter, although none of them won either contest.

In keeping with the quality of juveniles during the summer and autumn, this year’s renewal looks comparatively average at this juncture. The would-be front three from the Wensleydale reoppose, although those have yet to breach the 120 mark. Indeed, the best English form represented here came at Sedgefield when Scriptwriter made a winning debut. The remaining English form comes from the runner-up in a below-par Market Rasen contest which is not working out well. Ireland supplies the strongest winning form in the shape of War Correspondent, although the most substantial overall comes from a Nicholls trained ex-French recruit who mixed it with the best of the spring contingent. The line-up is completed by three newcomers with above average, if not outstanding profiles.

Given the quality of runner Cheltenham typically attracts, the average beaten DIs of 1.00 median and 1.36 mean are already low. Nevertheless, the winning DIs of 0.91 and 1.07 are lower still which is indicative of the necessity for stamina at the venue. While few would claim that Cheltenham is an especially easy course to jump around, its clear round rate of 97.08% is still one of the highest in the country, suggesting that bad jumpers tend not to get sent to Cheltenham. Hurdles experience is beneficial in this contest as debutants in the sphere are without a win from nineteen attempts, although four (Afsoun, Roc d’Apsis, Baraka de Thaix and Hargam) have reached the frame. Moreover, winning hurdling form is also quite essential as the races only previously successful maidens were Pistolet Noir (second favourite in the 2009 renewal) and Sam Winner (already thrice runner-up at Auteuil in 2010). The going at Cheltenham is currently good, with dry and breezy weather forecast between now and post time. None of the ten strong line up has made the running in the past, but a few have raced prominently and keenly. As such, while a particularly searching gallop is unlikely, there are enough energetic bodies to anticipate an honest enough tempo.

Triumph Odds
Blueking d’Oroux 33/1
Medyaf 33/1
Scriptwriter 40/1
Perseus Way 50/1
Tuddenham Green 50/1
War Correspondent 50/1
Mr Freedom 66/1
Just Another One 100/1

Medyaf bg Dan Skelton f4-0-0 (64) 64 j2-2-0 (123) 114 116
Sea The Moon (Rock Of Gibraltar){13-e}(0.78) 3/2 Poet 127 1st 2m½f Maiden Hurdle, Newbury 2012
Juvenile hurdlers who start their careers with John Gosden have a winner to runner rate of 18.10% which is close enough to average. However, only Pied Piper recorded an RPR exceeding 140 during their first campaigns over hurdles and their improvement rate stands at just 21.74%. A half-brother to a Group 2 winner who cost 110,000 guineas as a yearling, Medyaf did not live up to expectations on the flat as he finished nearer last than first on all four flat outings – although his final BHA mark of 64 meant that he left Clarehaven Stables on a lower foundation than most of his ilk. His first two outings last Autumn, at Nottingham and Newcastle, were not without promise as he shaped as though he would improve with age. However, the application of blinkers for the second half of his flat career cultivated a regression in both form and attitude, and he was allowed to leave Gosden for just 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls February Sale. There, he was purchased by Craig and Laura Buckingham and he would join a Dan Skelton yard with a fine record in the division. His winner to runner rate of 38.20% and improvement rate of 49.44% are above average and his clear round rate of 98.53% is the highest of any trainer with fifty or more juveniles to his name. Medyaf’s pedigree also gives cause for optimism for his new vocation as sire Sea The Moon has a fine winner runner rate of 38.10% headed by The Tide Turns, Tritonic and another Skelton inmate in Allmankind. Jumpers do not immediately appear on the damline, although the third dam produced the dams of useful winner Poet and High Stratos with the talented French chaser Sans Commission appearing at 5/2. Medyaf made his hurdling bow at the start of October in a Stratford maiden Skelton used to introduce Too Friendly to make a winning debut last season. Opening at 10/3 in the morning, he had drifted out to 9/1 before being sent off the 7/1 fourth favourite of seven. Tracking the leader from the outset, Medyaf was understandably fresh on his first racecourse appearance in nearly eight months, although did not pull particularly hard. He did miss the second, got in close to the fourth and was skewed over the next, but his round of jumping was otherwise decent for a newcomer. The front pair were a long way clear by the time they turned into the straight, and though by no means a certain winner approaching the last, he did appear to be travelling better of the two when La Breille’s fall left him a distance clear. The race had lost much of its depth when the easy-going Caesar’s Palace was pulled up quickly after two out, but the form received a boost when La Breille gained compensation in a fillies’ event at Fakenham. Medyaf reappeared just over a fortnight ago in the Wensleydale Hurdle; a contest Dan Skelton won with Langer Dan, and placed with his other two runners. Drifting from 2/1 to 4/1 during the day before being clipped a point in the ring, Medyaf raced third in a tight four runner field; getting close to the second and eighth, and tight at three-out, but otherwise jumping fine. He was travelling as well as the remaining trio entering the straight and was able to surge ahead of his remaining rival approaching the last. Medyaf began to wander under pressure on the run-in and briefly appeared to take his mind off racing when bumped by the riderless Mr Freedom. Nevertheless, he was happy to run again once getting a lead from his free-spirited companion. The lessons revealed by this performance are unhelpfully cryptic; particularly as his following Mr Freedom compromised any real elucidation of his resolve and his being a bit quicker than Tuddenham Green was not a revelation. However, the quality of form and its correspondence with the clock suggests that it was quite moderate for listed company. With Medyaf the only runner shouldering a penalty, it is more likely that he will emulating Cabot Cliffs’ attempt to run into a place for connections last year, as opposed to Allmankind’s winning first prize in 2019.

Blueking d’Oroux bg Paul Nicholls j3-1-1 (68.5/150.7) 119 130
Jeu St Eloi (Blue Bresil){14-b}(1.00) 1/0 Belle du Bresil 58.0 4th Prix Wild Monarch (L,3yHF), Auteuil 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/blueking-doroux
Ex-French hurdlers who join Paul Nicholls as juveniles have a terrific winner to runner rate of 62.5%, with the likes of Far West, Sanctuaire and Monmiral among the many who moved to Ditcheat before the Summer. Thus far, the one horse who matches this description this season is the thrice raced Blueking d’Oroux. Sire Jeu St Eloi, a six race maiden over jumps, is now onto his third crop of jumpers and while he has yet to produce any superstars, his winner to runner rate of 33.33% is respectable. Blueking d’Oroux’s dam finished fourth in the Prix Wild Monarch (a listed contest for unraced hurdlers), although the remaining distaff side of the pedigree is rather threadbare as the next winning jumper, classy juvenile Petite Parisienne, appears at 4/2. Blueking d’Oroux was initially under the care of Arnaud Chaillé-Chaillé, whose exported juveniles six winners from ten, including Djakadam, Charli Parcs, Dicosimo and, Diego du Charmil; the only previous Chaillé-Chaillé juvenile to join Paul Nicholls – incidentally for the same owner. Blueking d’Oroux began his career at Fontainebleau in mid-March, starting the race at 9/1. Prominent in the early stages before tucking in behind the leaders, he jumped well enough in the main save for steadying slightly at a couple. He was briefly outpaced after two out, but after being ridden into the last, where he reached for the flight, he landed in the lead and was ridden out to win by three-and-a-half lengths. The subsequent form of those in behind has been much of a muchness although the seventh did win a claimer easily next time out and fourth placed Castellet eventually ran second in a listed race. Taking a step up in class for the Prix Champaubert, he was sent off at just under 5/1 while receiving three kilos from Losange Bleu, and four from Whymper. Settled midfield and in touch, he posted another respectable round of hurdling, only slightly steadying at a couple along the back. He was close up and travelling well turning into the straight, but as much as he was in contention during the battle to the line and managed to get the better of Whymper in the final strides, he never looked like landing the decisive blow on the winner. The final of Blueking d’Oroux’s French outings came in the Prix Go Ahead, the first listed race of the season for experienced colts/geldings, and a contest from which Paul Nicholls sourced Sam Winner (2nd in 2010), Keltus (6th in 2013), Qualando (3rd in 2014), and Pic d’Orhy (1st in 2018). Though he was the only runner in the field introduced in a contest worth less than €20,000 to the winner, Blueking d’Oroux started the 2.8/1 second favourite of six. Tracking the leaders off a steady tempo, his early jumping was sound with only minor blemishes up to getting in close to the last in the back. He was outpaced on the turn for home and dropped to last when landing steeply at two out. Like the remainder of the tightly packed field, he had yet to be asked any serious questions approaching the last. However, an awkward, reaching jump put him at a distinct disadvantage on the sprint to the line, and he probably did well to go into fourth, three and a half lengths clear of the last pair. The form of the race has worked out well with the first and second confirming their places at the top of the division in the Prix Aguado, and the fifth an easy winner next time at Clairefontaine. Though Losange Bleu has not been out this autumn, the form has been further substantiated with third placed Libueno, and the fifth placed David du Berlais each winning valuable contests at Auteuil. Being bred to make a juvenile and having twice already met with defeat, Blueking d’Oroux could not be readily described as unexposed or scopey. Nevertheless, he has mixed it with established, quality performers and given how the Prix Go Ahead unraveled, he may yet prove better than his bare form. Since 2004/05, ex-French hurdlers have a fine 19.35% strike rate in the Prestbury, and this figure becomes 41.66% (5/12) when residents of Ditcheat are taken in isolation; two of whom (Sam Winner and Hinterland) were making their UK bow. Team Nicholls comes into the race in fantastic form, and the yard’s fellow French recruit Dixon Cove earned a bloodless victory on her UK debut earlier in the week. As in France, Blueking d’Oroux may find a couple stronger than him by the end of the season, but high expectations for his introduction are difficult to avoid.

Cabrakan bg Milton Harris f13-1-4 (75) 83
Divine Prophet (More Than Ready){1-x}(3.00) US Pedigree
The skill of Milton Harris is covered in Scriptwriter’s profile, although it is also worth a mention that while Cabrakan was not purchased at public auction, the yard has done well with ex-Hannon recruits in the past. From four past horses, two were winners; namely the three-time winner Gulf Punch, and last year’s Wensleydale runner-up Genuflex. Cabrakan ran eleven times for Richard Hannon, and though he would take nine races to get off the mark, he had mostly been running consistently in defeat while racing off marks in the mid-seventies. His win came at Kempton in early July, running off 74 over an extended ten furlongs on slow ground, where he benefitted off the strong pace while getting first run on the other strong finishing closer. His final two starts for the yard were substandard and though finishing strongest of all when a two-and-a-half length fifth in a racing league event at Newcastle, ran no kind of race when last seen bringing up the field in a similar race at Newcastle. Cabrakan is set to be the first runner over jumps for sire Divine Prophet; a high class miler in Australia. Divine Prophet is a decent size at 16.1hh and sons of Choisir (himself a success in the sphere) has a strong winner-to-runner rate of 30.43%. Cabrakan’s damline is bereft of jumpers, with the most pertinent animals to jumping (Turgeon and Lute Antique) showing at 5/5. Cabrakan’s BHA mark puts him the 82nd percentile of all juvenile recruits, his trainer has a 26.09% first time strike rate since 2019 and there is potential ability in his sire. However, given his patchy profile and occasional subpar effort, Cabrakan will likely prefer calmer waters.

Just Another One bg Nigel Hawke f2-0-2 (-) 77 j1-0-1 (-) 105 108
Vocalised (Galileo){1-x}(1.09) 1/2 Leagan Gaeilge 116 1st 3yo Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 2019 (Vocalised)
Nigel Hawke’s record with ex-Jim Bolger horses has been a topic covered on numerous occasions in my writing due to the uniquely impressive results. Outside of this dynamic Hawke’s winner-to-runner rate with juvenile hurdles stands at 9.09% while ex-Bolger juveniles have one of 20%. Nevertheless, of the thirteen who have moved from Coolcullen to Thorne Farm eight found the winners’ enclosure. What makes this arrangement all the more intriguing is that it constitutes part a journey which ultimately leads to the Keri Brion and the American jumps programme; as trodden by the likes of Historic Heart, Boulette, Theocrat and Peat Moss. This season’s class began with I Have A Voice (a fair third behind Tuddenham Green at Chepstow before winning at Southwell), and following on his hooves is Just Another One. Gelded in December and leaving Bolger’s to join Hawke in July, Just Another One first saw the racecourse in August for an uncompetitive five-runner Nottingham maiden held over an extended mile on good-to-firm. Drifting from a morning 20/1 to 66/1 at the off, Just Another One spent the early stages of the contest in rear and, at times, somewhat detached from the pack. He made headway to move into second at the distance and while he never stood a chance against the 85 rated long odds-on favourite, he comfortably held the remaining three to the tune of nearly four lengths. A fortnight later, he reappeared in a restricted ten-furlong maiden at Ffos Lass where he fluctuated in the market before starting at 33/1. He was sent into the lead before disputing at an even tempo. Responding to pressure two furlongs out, he was headed a furlong out and carried across the track by the 85 rated winner. Though he rallied, he ultimately went down by a neck and was probably flattered by the proximity. Nevertheless, the fourth and fifth each placed next time out and the form is amongst the stronger represented in this line-up. Sire Vocalised has a weak record in the sphere, with only one of his twenty-four juveniles managing a win from fifty-six outings. Nevertheless, that win did come from Just Another One’s niece/half-sister Leagan Gaeilge, who won her first and only start over hurdles; namely a moderate edition of the three-year-old maiden at Leopardstown’s festive meeting. However, the only others on the damline to try hurdling, full-brother San Aer and half-brother Advena, achieved little in the sphere. Juveniles trained by Nigel Hawke, regardless of where they were previously trained, seldom perform on their hurdling debuts; their first-time strike-rate standing at just 4.23%. As such, Just Another One appeared to fare well on his debut at Market Rasen in a race Hawke won with Nachi Falls in 2016, and a course where he saddled Tiger Roll to make a winning debut in November 2013. Receiving some outside support in the ring, backed from 7/1 to 11/2, Just Another One was held up off the pace and looked in danger of becoming seriously detached when being ridden along the back. His hurdling also left plenty to be desired as he hopped over the second and third, got in very close to the fourth and took his last two in the manner of a tired horse. These latter jumps are curious given that he visually finished strongly to take the runner-up spot on the flat. However, the closing sectionals were glacial compared to the other races on the card over the same trip so it is probable that the race simply disintegrated. Moreover, the form has been done no favours by the winner or the third, who have each ran poorly on subsequent starts. Nigel Hawke did send Repetitio to finish third in this race three years ago, but the yard’s modest second-time-out strike rate of 5.66% is more in keeping with Just Another One’s profile in this company.

Mr Freedom bg Sheena West f7-0-0 (53) 57 j5-3-1 (120) 113 114
Sixties Icon (Sayif){9-c}(0.52) 4/1 Zero 128 1st 2m3½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (112), Ascot 2007
Juveniles that leave Mick Channon for Sheena West have a better record than those who go elsewhere; and the same can be said for where Sheena West sources her juveniles. Her record for those from outside this connection reads as one winner from fourteen. After Fontwell in early September, those moving from West Ilsley to Falmer have an impressive winner-to-runner rate of sixteen from forty. Prior to Mr Freedom’s victory, seven of these winners were rated 53 or less, which afforded encouragement for the latest to make that journey. Mr Freedom cost just £800 as a yearling, and his best showing on the flat came on the last seven outings; finishing a staying on fourth off 54, over an extended eleven furlongs at Windsor in early-August. His breeding offers mixed messages as the immediate damline is bereft of jumps experience until the winning novice handicapper Zero appears at 4/1, although the fourth dam also has another winner in Kristiansand and her next level of descendants includes the useful sorts London Prize and Categorical. The sire, Sixties Icon, has a solid winner-runner rate of 22.45%, and his strike-rate before October is a healthy 33.33%. Mr Freedom’s hurdling debut came at Fontwell in August, for which he was mercurial in the markets before starting at 6/1. Taking a keen hold while racing at the rear of the field, his jumping, while largely safe, left plenty to be desired as there was not a single hurdle where he was not big, skewed, slow, awkward or any combination of same. It is then to his credit that he was able to make headway into a close enough third, and still look a feasible threat turning for home. This threat was short lived, however, as a lack of pace and fluency saw the leading pair get away just before the last, leaving Mr Freedom to finish a sixteen length third. There was undoubted promise hiding in this performance and the yard’s juvenile strike-rate did jump up from 8.33% to 22.73% between first and second outings. Seventeen days later, all of the above led to Mr Freedom belying the relative lack of enthusiasm in the market to comfortably land 9/1 odds back at the same venue. Taking a firm hold while bringing up the field at a modest tempo, Mr Freedom still showed a tendency to hop and skew at his early flights, but it was much less pronounced than on his debut and he did hurdle quite quickly on occasion. Still bringing up the rear of a tightly bunched field jumping the penultimate flight, he passed a couple of rivals approaching the last where he was within a length of the lead. From there, he had the pace to quickly put the race to bed, winning readily by two, four and seven lengths. Given how the race unfolded, the winning time was far from impressive and little more could be said of the form. The runner-up was an uncompelling debutant and those with experience were below par. His third jumps outing came at Plumpton where he started the steady 10/3 second favourite in a race which looked somewhat stronger on paper. Held up towards the rear, he made minor errors such as skewing somewhat, getting in tight and rather reaching at his hurdles, but apart from being especially awkward at three out, generally went about things efficiently enough. Having made headway on the second circuit, he was caught for toe as the leader pressed on leaving the back, but he was able to reel him in by the last and powered clear up the run in to score by four and twenty-one lengths. Mr Freedom completed his hat trick when returning to Fontwell four weeks ago and though conceding upwards of twelve pounds all round, was still sent off a solid 5/4 favourite. Once again held up towards the rear, Mr Freedom was tight at the majority of his hurdles, but his only real error came when getting too close to the third. Entering the straight, he was within striking distance of the leading pair and travelling much the strongest of the three. His being ridden into the last when upsides the leader was the first time he was asked a question by Marc Goldstein and in response, Mr Freedom needed only pushing on the run-in to score by a comfortable ten lengths. The runner-up subsequently finishing an eleven length fourth off 100 gives a fair indication off the standard of form. Nevertheless, in the context of this season, it warranted a place in the Wensleydale Hurdle for which he opened as favourite in the ring before edging out to 11/4 second favourite at the off. Held up in a close fourth, he slightly skewed on a couple of occasions and was tight at the fourth, but otherwise posted his neatest round of jumping to date. Approaching the penultimate flight, Mr Freedom was close behind the leading pair and travelling as well as either of them. However, he became highly distracted and, having to veer to his left to avoid hitting the wings of the flight, ran out of the race and introduced Marc Goldstein to the ground. That the riderless Mr Freedom rejoined his companion, jumped the last and ran on to pass the post in the lead suggests that there were no misgivings about either racing or hurdling. Sheena West is without a winning juvenile from ten at Cheltenham and Mr Freedom would be below the standard required to win one of these. Nevertheless, the yard did sent Tobago Bay to finish seventh in the 2009 Fred Winter, and Reaction to finish third in the Finesse the following season, so another creditable showing would not be a surprise.

Perseus Way chg Gary Moore f6-2-1 (80) 85
Sea The Stars (Kingmambo){3-n}(1.22) 3/1 Kerrier 0 PU 2m Novices Hurdle, Chepstow 1997
Initially racing in the Godolphin blue, Perseus Way started his career with a win over a mile in heavy ground at Leicester last October. However, he then finished down the field at Newmarket and with testicles removed and cheekpieces applied, he finished just worse than midfield in a Wolverhampton contest won by Emily Upjohn. He was released for 80,000 guineas at the Tattersalls February sale and resumed his career for Owen Burrows in a Sandown handicap off 80. Though poor on his return, he ran with credit on his second start for the yard when second of four in a Newbury handicap that was not run to suit. Perseus Way was last seen at Newbury two months ago, doubling his tally by leading home eighteen rivals over ten furlongs. Held up towards the rear off a solid gallop, he made smooth headway out wide after the turn for home and took up the running at the distance before fending off persistent challenges from either side with good tenacity. Perseus Way makes the switch to hurdling; a sphere for which his pedigree gives mixed signals. Sea The Stars has a healthy winner to runner rate of 33.33% headed by Stars Over The Sea and Starchitect, although the imminent damline is discouraging despite the flat class of uncle Master Of The Seas. The first jumper appers at the third dam, who produced Kerrier to pull up on all three hurdles runs. She also produced the broodmares of unaccomplished maidens Grey Command and Cookie Ring. Nevertheless, more distant relatives do include Bowler Hat (4/4) and Old Gringo (5/3). New trainer Gary Moore is less ambiguous in his talents as he boasts a winner runner rate of 35.91%, and a first-time strike rate of 18.89%. That being said, he could be quite fairly described as an underachiever with his juveniles at Cheltenham; counting just one win from forty at the venue since 2004 (no thanks to Goshen). Notwithstanding, he has had three from eight reach the frame in this contest, including last year’s third Yorksea who, at 33/1, was another son of Sea The Stars making his stable/hurdling debut. There is a lack of hurdling experince to overcome as well as a gulf in flat ability with Scriptwriter. However, in any ordinary contest, Perseus Way would be a most intriguing newcomer on account of his flat accomplishments, likeable attitude and talented trainer and sire. Though it would be a tough ask to win this race on his first start, a big run cannot be entirely ruled out.

Scriptwriter bg Milton Harris f4-1-0 (102) 101 j1-1-0 (-) 110 117
Churchill (Pivotal){6-e}(0.86) 2/1 Persian Warrior 121 1st 2m Novice Hurdle, Stratford 2009
At the 2021 Tattersalls July Sale, Milton Harris walked away with four juvenile hurdlers for sums between fourteen and twenty thousand guineas. Three of these, Aliomaana, Genuflex and Knight Salute, would all find the winners’ enclosure with the latter named – incidentally the least expensive of the bunch – capping off a fantastic campaign with success in the Grade One Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree. Returning to the well at this year’s sale, Mr Harris brought along a much thicker wallet, and left with five potential juveniles; three costing over fifty-five thousand guineas which far exceeds the previous high of twenty-seven thousand guineas exchanged for Pyramid Place in 2020. Since returning from his hiatus, Milton Harris has had tremendous success with relatively inexpensive auction buys, as per their 60% winner-to-runner rate, so it is highly intriguing to see how he fares with pricier types. Scriptwriter, the most expensive of his July sale recruits, came from an Aiden O’Brien whose stock seldom carry their flat ability over hurdles. Since 2004, only two of the sixteen ex-Ballydoyle juveniles (Sardinia and HMS Seahorse – both joining Paul Nolan) would win in the division, with six of the winless juveniles rated 83 or above – including Table Mountain who cost 200,000 guineas in 2010. Scriptwriter’s debut came in a Curragh maiden last August, the same event used to introduce Wichita and Circus Maximus. He was the mount of Ryan Moore and started the shorter price of two Ballydoyle newcomers at 4/1. He raced prominently before fading into a three length sixth inside the final furlong. No classic horses finished ahead of him, but he did split a pair of next time out winners, with the one behind subsequently finishing second in a Listed race at Dundalk. He got off the mark in a mid-September Gowran maiden when the 11/8 favourite. Tracking the leaders, he was outpaced distance and ran green under pressure before running on strongly to lead close home. The form has not been strong with only two winners in behind; the fourth landing a Dundalk maiden, and the sixth taking a Limerick handicap off 73. His two-year-old season ended with a fifth in Newmarket’s Autumn Stakes for which he was sent off at 14/1. Racing in mid division he was green in the dip but kept on for a six length fifth of ten. Winner Coroebus was a class apart from his rivals, but Scriptwriter was able to get within a length and a quarter of Aikjal (won Group Three International), while finishing a neck ahead of Alflaila (won Listed Pomfret Stakes) and another head in front of Lingfield Derby Trial winner, United Nations. Scriptwriter returned in the Ballysax in which he was the Ballydoyle second string. Held up, he made some headway home turn and kept on in the straight without ever looking a threat. The front pair, headed by Piz Badile, were well clear, but Scriptwriter was only a neck behind Dante third Bluegrass and upwards of five lengths ahead of useful handicap sorts. Overall, the level of form shown on the flat by Scriptwriter is perhaps marginally better than his official rating of 102, which itself would put Scriptwriter within the 99.65% percentile of rated juvenile hurdlers. Scriptwriter is representing first-season jumps sire Churchill. Winner of the National and Dewhurst stakes at two before landing the English and Irish Guineas double, Churchill did finish second in the International but was not wholly proven beyond a mile. While he is out of Galileo, the damline is not entirely conducive to stamina, with full-sister Clemmie restricted to eight furlongs, and granddam Airwave being a very fast mare. Nevertheless, Churchill’s full-brother Blenheim Palace stayed at least eleven furlongs, and his height of 16.2hh and overall class will be positives in this endeavour. Scriptwriter’s damline is not outstanding insofar as jumps prospects go, but there is evidence of ability as half-brother Saeer has placed over hurdles, uncle Persian Warrior won a Stratford novice, and the talented Grumeti appears at 4/3. Given the patchy record of those that Coolmore do not keep within the family for hurdling campaigns, enthusiasm for Scriptwriter is somewhat tempered. Nevertheless, his highly credible flat ability, feasible pedigree and the tutelage of a trainer who has done wonders with less fashionable types made Scriptwriter an intriguing prospect for the season. Helping with Churchill’s fine start as a sire of juveniles, Scriptwriter made it three winners from six for the freshman stallion when making a winning debut in a maiden at Sedgefield four weeks ago; the same venue Milton Harris successfully introduced Knight Salute and Genuflex last term. Starting the 11/10 favourite, Scriptwriter raced with enthusiasm while tracking the leader from the outset. He was scruffy at the first and tight over the first couple of flights and though he was better when settling into a rhythm, was slightly awkward again when the tempo increased; including when wandering on the approach to the last and landing on all fours. Notwithstanding, his momentum was enough to get his head in front and while he perhaps made a meal of beating My Brother Jack on the run-in, the manner in which he put a few lengths between himself and his rival, despite veering markedly to his right, suggest that he had a fair amount in hand. The second and third have since given the form a more solid look with the pair each finishing second next time out, and the clock suggests that it was an above average performance for the track. Scriptwriter shaped as though he should learn plenty from the experience, and he has at least a stone in hand of the best any of his rivals produced on the flat. While he will likely need to fulfil that debut promise to challenge Blueking d’Oroux, and the yard could be coming into the race in better form, Scriptwriter has the credentials to give a good go at repeating Knight Salute’s success of twelve months ago.

Super Stars bg Adrian Paul Keatley f11-0-5 (65) 75
Sea The Stars (Holy Roman Emperor){9-f}(2.08) 3/1 Gentleman’s Deal jumps sire
Since 2004/05, Mark Johnston has been the most prolific supplier of flat recruits to the juvenile hurdling division with two-hundred-and=fifteen graduates. Fifty of these would be winners, giving a decent rate of 23.26%. Their improvement rate is a less impressive 29.82%, although this does not preclude lower rated sorts from success with Nordano being rated 66, Raven’s Tower 63, and Helensburgh just 59. Medyaf and Mr Freedom were rated lower than Super Stars on the flat, although their multiple wins does rather negate this fact. Super Stars was initially rated 77 having twice finished second at two, but this mark would slide down to 67 before being arrested by a couple of third placed finishes in September; firstly at Brighton over ten furlongs, then at Hamilton over an additional furlong where he looked a likely winner at the distance before fading late on. Hanging left and folding tamely when last seen at Yarmouth twenty-five days ago, he was since knocked down for 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale to join Adrian Keatley; a yard with only one win from thirty four starts in the sphere (Champagne Terri on third outing in weak Doncaster contest, March 2020). Super Stars is also by Sea The Stars, though like Perseus Way, the damline is threadbare. His great granddam was the mighty Sleepytime, and her son, Gentleman’s Deal, is the sole jumping evidence available strictly by virtue of his siring a couple of winners from twenty. Super Stars is another who would be interesting on ordinary company, but has too much to find in most respects to be warranted serious consideration here.

Tuddenham Green bg Alan King f5-0-2 (70) 76 j2-1-1 (120) 112 116
Nathaniel (New Approach){7-f}(0.53) 2/1 Devilment 150 2nd Anniversary Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2015
Since 2004, Alan King has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than anybody else in Britain or Ireland, with his tally of 113 including top class animals in Katchit, Walkon, Sceau Royal, Grumeti, Blazing Bailey and Franchoek to name but a few. His record in this particular contest is not without merit as he has landed back-to-back renewals with Katchit and Franchoek in 2006 and 2007, although his best placing from nine since Franchoek came when Cracker Factory finished runner-up in 2018. Alan King’s representative this year is Tuddenham Green; carrying the same colours as Cracker Factory and similarly rated on the flat. Gelded after a lacklustre debut at Haydock last June, he showed enough improvement when sixth and fourth in mile contests at Kempton and Lingfield respectively to warrant an opening BHA mark of 69. Tuddenham Green had been entered in minor juvenile hurdle events during the summer, but connections opted to keep him on the flat for a pair of handicaps. His reappearance came at the end of June for a Haydock handicap over an extended eleven furlongs. Racing keenly towards the rear, he was asked for his effort three furlongs out and though he lacked the turn of foot shown by the front pair (each subsequent winners), he stayed on honestly enough to finish six and a half lengths third of a strung out eight runner field. A month later, he was stepped up to a mile and six for a Sandown handicap, although it did not present the desired stamina test. Held up in touch, Tuddenham Green was keeping tabs on the principals up the straight, but finding himself caught in a pocket, he found himself shuffled to the rear at the distance. Though it would be a stretch to suggest this cost him victory, he did stay on determinedly to keep on for a close third. He was given a ten week break before making an inevitable switch to hurdling for which he is very feasibly bred. Nathaniel has produced a commendable eleven winning juveniles from thirty-three (headed by Zanahiyr, Burning Victory and Navajo Pass), with his progeny boasting a healthy strike rate of 20.69%. His granddam produced the accomplished juvenile hurdler Devilment along with another winner in Nasee, while winning German hurdler Interior Minister appears at 3/2 on the damline. Tuddenham Green’s introduction to hurdling came in the same Chepstow juvenile Alan King won with Katchit, Franchoek and Karezak and gave debuts to Secret Edge and Sceau Royal. Sent off the solid 6/4 favourite of five, he took a keen hold in rear and was tight over the first. Nevertheless, while his enthusiasm continued, he was tidy over the next couple before clipping the fourth. He was caught out by the flattened fifth hurdle, which put him a few lengths behind the field, and he was tight at the first in the straight as well as slightly missing the penultimate flight. Notwithstanding, though still lacking that patent turn of pace, he was staying on strongest of all without straining himself and a clean jump and the last gave him a lead which he extended to nearly three lengths by the line. The winning time compared very favourably against the Free Handicap Hurdle later on the card and the runner-up gave the form a solid look when an arguably unlucky second to another of Alan King’s with a decent looking performance at Kempton. Another Wensleydale expat, Tuddenham Green was sent off the 11/8 favourite for the contest and raced just behind the lead while taking a keen hold. His hurdling was acceptable, although he did give his early flights a bit of air and was awkward at the fifth and eighth. With the frontrunner fading on entering the straight, Tuddenham Green held the lead until being outpaced by Medyaf approaching two out, whereafter he was unable to find an extra gear in finishing a three-length second. Cheltenham’s additional stamina demands may be to Tuddenham Green’s benefit and his prospects of best representing the Wensleydale form are reasonable, although that might not be enough to repel his more promising rivals.

War Correspondent grg Ray Cody f8-0-3 (81) 86 j1-1-0 (-) 105 114
Teofilo (Linamix){1-e}(0.50) 0.5 Tower Bridge 148 3rd Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2018
With a winner runner rate of 9.52% and strike rate of 4.48%, Excelebration was probably better suited to standing in Morocco than siring juvenile hurdlers. Nevertheless, Ray Cody was able to Bell Ex One up to the standard where he would place in the Fred Winter before heading to Australia. This season, he has gone to war with a son of Teofilo; a sire with a much healthier winner to runner rate of 32.61% Trained by Cody on the flat, War Correspondent began his career in May; already gelded and sporting a tongue tie first time. His first three outings earned him a rating of 75 which he carried to third at Dundalk on his handicap debut before filling the same position over an extended twelve furlongs at the Galway Festival from a pound higher; looking quite thoughtful on the latter occasion. Two lesser performances followed in handicap company, and his flat campaign was rounded off with a two and a quarter length third in a Listowel maiden where he got into a barging match at the start and pulled himself up near the finish. Nevertheless, the form was decent with the first and second winning next time, and the sixth going on to land the November Handicap. A switch to hurdles beckoned and along with his useful sire, War Correspondent comes from a rich damline of jumping talent. A half-brother to Tower Bridge, he is a nephew of Noel Meade’s useful novice Walk On Mix, a cousin of Royal Shakespeare, and a 3/3 relative of Detroit City. There are also a couple of French Champion Hurdlers nearby, with World Citizen (1982) appearing at 3/1, and Paiute (1979 & 1980) at 5/2. War Correspondent’s hurdles bow came in the same Punchestown maiden won by Espoir d’Allen, A Wave Of The Sea, Quilixios, and the aforementioned Bell Ex One. Starting the 7/2 third favourite of eleven, War Correspondent raced keenly and was soon tracking the leaders having been held up early on. He was steady at the first and slow away from the third having landed steeply, but jumped soundly in the main (for all that Rachael Blackmore thought he could do better). Making his challenge on the home turn, he was handed the lead by a rival nearly falling at the last. War Correspondent was none too clever either, but he made good use of the momentum and while he looked to be keeping a bit to himself, he was always narrowly holding the runner-up. The fifth was well beaten in an Ayr handicap off 114, and the nine length sixth was a 125/1 shot. Nevertheless, that 125/1 shot proved her placing when third next time at Galway behind the seventh placed finisher, and the winning time was almost identical to that posted by older horses in the 80-109 handicap later on the card. Irish raiders have been plundering races at Cheltenham as of late although Duffle Coat is the only such winner from twelve in this race since 2004, with both Won In The Dark and Guitar Pete each finding one too good. Ray Cody should still have healthy optimism on his first raid to these shores and in Sam Twiston-Davies, he has a rider who won the Fred Winter on Diego du Charmil, and guided the 50/1 Saint Riquier to finish second in this race twelve months ago.

Strong prospects
1. Blueking d’Oroux
Reasonable prospects
2. War Correspondent
3. Scriptwriter
Feasible prospects
4. Perseus Way
5. Tuddenham Green
6. Mr Freedom
7. Medyaf
Moderate prospects
8. Cabrakan
9. Just Another One
Negligible prospects
10. Super Stars
 
Apologies for going quiet... Holidays, illness and writers block... Would like to improve the whole time management thing in 2023 but time will tell.

In meantime, preview notes for the first juvenile hurdle of 2023. Happy new year to all of you and all of yours :)

MUSSELBURGH 1st JANUARY

Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate (SR) across all juveniles is 9.53%, winner-runner (WR) 19.40%, improvement rate (IMP) 36.96%, clear round (CR) 96.07%, prize money per race (PMPR) £1085.22

Race History/Stats
* Introduced to card in 2014; held nine times
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR of 125.78 some 8lbs higher than course standard
* Winning Dis of 1.00 median, 1.05 mean are much lower than course standard (1.26, 1.59 respectively)
* Six previous winners, eleven runners in total, went on to contest the Scottish Triumph; Fiveandtwenty the only to do so successfully, landing the double in 2021 before placing third in the Anniversary
* Project Bluebook (1st 2017) finished third in the Scottish Triumph and fourth in the Fred Winter before winning the Grade Two juvenile at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting
* Other notable juvenile performances; Herbiers (2nd 2021) won the juvenile handicap at Ascot, Nietzsche (3rd 2017) placed third in Fred Winter, Hannon (1st 2019) failed by a nose to win a Naas Grade Two novice
* Long term, Superb Story (1st 2015) won the County Hurdle the following year, Castafiore (Fell 2017) won the 2019 Altcar Novices’ Chase

Course Info
* Flat, sharp, right-handed track
* Average winning DI 1.42 (+0.15 cf. standard – lower in this contest)
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR 117.67 (-0.59 cf. standard – higher in this contest)
* Clear round 96.32% (+0.25 cf. standard), completion rate 90.81% (+3.56 cf. standard)
* Fairly standard insofar as markets are concerned
* Newcomers’ clear round rate 97.06% fairest of GB courses compared to experienced runners
* Previous course winners 28.00% SR (+5.45 cf. standard)
* Front runners have second best record amongst GB courses

Ground & Pace
* Soft, Good to Soft in places, steady light rain and gentle breeze forecast overnight
* Cabrakan made all (uncontested) when winning at Newcastle, Bringbackmemories disputed at Sedgefield and Duyken led on flat in France while racing keenly. Solid pace anticipated

Triumph Odds
Cabrakan 50/1

Cabrakan bg Milton Harris f13-1-4 (75) 83 j2-1-1 (-) 96 107
Divine Prophet (More Than Ready){1-x}(3.00) US Pedigree
Breeding
* First hurdler for Divine Prophet; Caulfield Guineas winner, reasonable height (1.65m), yet to have soft ground winner
* Grandsire Choisir fine juvenile stallion himself, 33.33% WR and 43.75% IMP as grandsire
* No nearby jumpers on US pedigree, 3/2 Dangerous Midge, 5/5 Turgeon and Lute Antique (jumps sires)
Source
* ex-Richard Hannon inmates solid WR of 21.21%
* Milton Harris two winners from four (Gulf Punch, Genuflex) with former Hannon horses
Trainer
* 26.76% WR, 43.33% WR since return in 2018/19
* Strike rates improve across first three outings (11.11%, 15.09%, 18.42%)
* Yet to saddle winning juvenile from three at Musselburgh
* Fair recent form; had winner on Boxing Day with Polyphonic and won flat handicap on Friday with Scriptwriter
Jockey
* Mitch Bastyan 22.86% SR
Flat Profile
* Ran thirteen times for Richard Hannon, collecting sole success in eleven furlong Kempton handicap in July off 74; coming off strong pace to win by a neck
* Largely consistent and responds well under pressure, but often let down by tardy starts
* OR of 75 third highest in this field
Jumps Form
* Made hurdles debut in Exeter juvenile in November, starting 9/4 second favourite of five having been available at 7/2 in morning
* Tracked and disputed with eventual winner at fair tempo, novicey at first but neat for much of remainder. Slightly slow away from two out but marginal lead at last where got in close and stumbled on landing. Tried to challenge again on run-in but squeezed out and forced to switch. Kept on but probably second best in any case.
* Pair five lengths clear of the remainder, form yet to be tested, looked fair at time.
* Returned six days later for quite valuable Introductory Juvenile at Newcastle donning first-time cheekpieces and starting solid 15/8 second favourite
* Given uncontested lead and set a steady tempo, kicked on from three out and driven out on run-in to win by two lengths
* Slightly awkward at first, third and fifth, and flattened the second, but jumped well in the straight
* Fourth (the reopposing Freddy Robinson) and fifth filled first two places in similar contest at Musselburgh the following week
Summary
* Just about strongest hurdles form in field and front-runners do well at Musselburgh. Penalty to shoulder and easy lead not assured but battling qualities could be telling.

Freddy Robinson bg Brian Ellison f10-0-2 (62) 74 j2-1-0 (105) 92 107
Adaay (Indian Ridge){4-k}(19.00) 0/5 Go Fox 114 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (105), Perth 2021
Breeding
* Adaay second season sire, short, won Sandy Lane and Hungerford, all three hurdlers have been winners, all three juvenile hurdle stallion sons of Kodiac have produced winners in sphere
* Half-brother Go Fox a winning handicap hurdler, cousins Conducting, Cape Arrow (won HcH as juv) and Goodwood Starlight also winning jumpers
* 3/1 Hidden Cove, 2/4 Tile Tapper, 4/3 Christopher Wood, 5/3 Paint The Clouds, 5/5 Max Dynamite
Source
* With current trainer on flat, such Ellison juveniles 28.95% WR 41.38% IMP
* Bought in for 3,000gns at Tattersalls Autumn Sale
Trainer
* 31.18% WR
* 3/39 (7.69%) SR at Musselburgh, 0-5 in this contest
* Yard without winning jumper since Freddy Robinson four weeks ago, couple of recent seconds on flat
Jockey
* Sean Quinlan 13.33% SR at Musselburgh (6.08% overall)
Flat Profile
* Ten flat outings, best placing a second in Redcar seller over a mile on last start in sphere.
* Initially rated 76 but drop to 62 a fair reflection of overall form
* Seemingly failed to stay on sole try beyond a mile, has raced freely and looked suspect under pressure
Jumps Form
* Hurdling debut came in Newcastle Introductory Juvenile, uneasy 16/1 outsider
* Raced keenly in rear, tight at second, close at sixth and hopped through top of three out. Squeezed out at penultimate flight, made a couple of places on run-in to finish 6½l fourth
* Returned for similar contest at Musselburgh following week, opened at 12/1 in morning but started 11/2 third favourite of six
* Still enthusiastic but settled better in rear, awkward over first two flights but fluent from thereon apart from clipping three out
* Travelled well to move into share of lead two out, led by two lengths at last, quickened clear run-in to win by eight lengths
* Reasonable time compared to handicap on card (also steady tempo), favourites jumped poorly, form untested but runner-up since improved on flat
Summary
* Probably already better over hurdles than on flat and looked impressive when winning over C&D last month. Form has holes and while now more experienced than when meeting Cabrakan at Newcastle, race may not be run to suit given stamina not yet fully proven at solid pace.

Bringbackmemories bg John C McConnell f7-0-4 (82) 88 j2-0-2 (-) 110 106
Iffraaj (Shamardal){8-k}(1.74) 3/2 Paso Doble 131 3rd Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Kempton 2021
Breeding
* Iffraaj 13.51% WR, Shamardal 14.71% WR as damsire
* Closest jumps relative on damline the modest Be Faithful at 3/1, useful types Paso Doble, Batave and Bailarico appear at 3/2
Source
* ex-Ger Lyons 22.62% WR, 47.37% IMP
* 0 winners from 5 when sold out of claimers
* Bought for €20,000 after final start
Trainer
* 20.93% WR
* Two winners from four in this contest (Hannon 2019, Never Do Nothing 2020); beaten runners making hurdling debuts
* Three winners from fourteen since Christmas
Flat Profile
* Failed to win in seven starts but reached the frame on three occasions.
* Best efforts came at Roscommon over ten furlongs, finishing second in a Median Auction race in May on soft, and in a claimer on his final flat outing on good in August
* Looked one paced and given to wandering under pressure. Ran up to and beyond OR of 82 on several occasions
Jumps Form
* Made debut in useful looking contest at Down Royal, drifted from morning show of 6/1 before settling at 9/1 in ring
* Sent off towards rear, made headway along back, just behind leading pair at distance, wandered under pressure and missed final flight (had jumped soundly to that point), no match for winner but ran on to make seven lengths on third with the trio fourteen lengths clear of remainder
* No subsequent winners from down field but first and third matched form next time at Listowel; the former then winning impressively in USA
* Second and latest outing came in Sedgefield maiden towards end of September where a solid 6/4 second favourite
* Raced keenly in prominent position, missing third flight only serious error, going well at top of straight but unable to match winner’s speed. Lost battle for second on run-in, finishing 9½l third, 19l clear of remainder
* Form working out well for course; winner McTigue followed up in Auteuil Grade II, second placed My Brother Jack filled same position behind Scriptwriter at Sedgefield and the fifth placed Silver Vision at Musselburgh. Fourth placed Vintage Valley also won next time out
Summary
* Down Royal and Sedgefield form look good on paper and give him edge at weights. Yard also likes this race. Suspect attitude is a concern.

Duyfken bg Nick Alexander f6-0-1 (33.0/72.6) 68
Le Havre (Monsun){1-n}(0.87) 0.5 Zoffanien 138 4th Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2021
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/duyfken
Breeding
* 1 winner from 11 GB/IRE, 16.67% IMP, 18.42% WR in France
* Monsun 37.84% WR as damsire
* Half-brother to decent juvenile Zoffanien, nephew of Amarak (1st 4yo Auteuil Hurdle, 3/2 Crossword (2 wins in claimers). 3/3 Top Of The Glas 3/3 Superb Story 3/4 Le Vagabond 4/2 Silence Reigns
Source
* ex-Carlos Laffon-Parias 28.57% WR, 9.09% IMP; El Fontan sole export from fourteen to achieve RPR exceeding 120 as juvenile
* Sold for €28,000 at Arqana Deauville Summer
* Nick Alexander bought his sole winning juvenile (Wakool) at same sale in 2019 for €48,000
Trainer
* One winner from five in division, four ex-flat horses all rated at least 77 in that sphere
* Couple of seconds in past fortnight but yard largely out of form
Flat Profile
* Winless in six outings, his best effort came when second on his penultimate start in a 2400m Longchamp handicap in early June, racing off 33 (72.6)
* Racing keenly and setting an even tempo, he was challenged approaching the distance and while he kept his rivals at bay for the next furlong, seemed unwilling to give best and ultimately went down by a length and a quarter
* He was last seen racing off the same mark at Le Lion d’Angers where he again made the running, but faded in the straight having done too much early
Summary
* A probable stayer but one with a suspect temperament. Form puts him in 75th percentile of all juvenile recruits but leaves him slightly short in this company first time.

Jad Mahal bg Maurice Barnes f5-0-1 (65) 72 j1-0-0 (-) 21 26
Dabirsim (Shamardal){4-m}(2.25) 0.5 Selma 119 3rd 3600m 3yo Handicap Hurdle (62.0), Auteuil 2021
Breeding
* Dabirsim’s six juveniles have failed to win in eleven starts with their PMPR at £64
* Shamardal 14.71% WR, 23.53% IMP as damsire
* Family of Dubai Millennium (3/1), half-sister Selma had fairly useful form as 3yo handicapper in France
Source
* Formerly with Alan King, those who left Barbury Castle have two wins from eight in division;-
* Royal Sunday won a Hereford juvenile maiden in April 2018 on his hurdles bow for Alex Hales, Kings Creek won on his second outing for Iain Jardine having twice been beaten over hurdles for King
* Having fetched £34,000 as a two-year-old at the Goresbridge Breeze Up, he was let go at this August’s Goffs UK sale for £2,000 after one run over hurdles
Trainer
* 8.70% WR, although 50.00% IMP
* Won an Ayr novice with Currahee in March 2008 on fourth hurdles run having bought him for 2,500gns at the DBS December Sale
* Winless from 30 runners since then, 0-6 at Musselburgh
* No winning jumpers from 23 in three months
Flat Profile
* Ran four times on flat prior to hurdling debut, with sole worthwhile form coming by way of 2¼l third in Wolverhampton maiden at two
* Beaten twelve and thirteen lenghts in Spring, then tailed off in first-time visor when last seen in July
Jumps Form
* Very easy to back ahead of season’s curatin raiser at Hexham (2/1 in morning, opened 3/1 in ring, 6/1 at off)
* Raced keenly in midfield, big over second, steady and close at fifth, faded afterwards, finished tailed off
Summary
* Since May, he has been gelded, had a wind op, been tailed off under both codes and sold cheaply. Yard capable of getting something from bargain purchases but unlikely to make much impact at this stage.

Master Oliver chg Iain Jardine f3-0-1 (60) 65
Mastercraftsman (High Chaparral){14-b}(0.78) 3/1 Plinth 92 1st 2m5½f Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (78), Market Rasen 1997
Breeding
* Since his first crop in 2014/15, Mastercraftsman has sired 25 winning juvenile hurdlers; the most in GB/IRE, 6 clear of Authorized
* Mastercraftsman above average in all metrics apart from clear round; 25.51% WR, 12.77% SR, 44.44% IMP
* High Chaparral successful sire, less so as damsire but broodmare progeny still have 54.55% IMP
* Uncle dual G1 winner over 7f in New Zealand, only jumps relative modest winning handicapper Plinth (3/1), jumps sire Jupiter Island 4/1
Source
* Seven of yard’s juveniles trained on flat by Iain Jardine, no wins from twenty starts
* Incidentally, of three that he trained on flat that went to other yards as juveniles, Must See The Doc (Dan Skelton) and Jorgie (Jim Goldie) were both dual winners
Trainer
* 13.64% WR
* 4.76% SR first time out
* 1 win from 20 at Musselburgh, 0-5 in this race although did saddle Oot Ma Way to finish 50/1 runner-up last year
* Couple of flat winners in past fortnight
Flat Profile
* Made debut in Musselburgh seller over extended twelve furlongs in mid-October. 12/1 > 8/1 in morning, 9/1 > 16/1 in ring
* Green and one paced, 3l fourth of five, fancied horses disappointed
* Some market support, prominent but weakened off steady pace in Wolverhampton novice stakes
* Last seen in Southwell novice stakes 23 days ago, started 10/3 having been 8/1 during day
* Held up, headway in straight, plugged on for four length third under claimer
* Likely stayer, still green
Summary
* Excellent sirelines and yard had big priced runner-up last year. However, late starter who still looks green and would need to improve considerably first time.

Paddy’s Fancy grf Oliver Greenall f5-0-0 (53) 55 j1-1-0 (-) 92 92
New Bay (Mizzen Mast){8-h}(1.22) 0.5 Caballine 91 5th Fillies’ Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Doncaster 2020
Breeding
* New Bay second crop, two winners from four juveniles to date, quite short, won French Derby, son of Dubawi (9 winning juvenile sires from 11)
* Half-sister a moderate juvenile, nearest winner on damline 3/1 Light Programme (won handicap hurdle off 73)
Source
* Only other self-trained Greenall juvenile the 47 rated Mi Laddo; collected prize money
Trainer
* 15.91% WR
* Saddled Herbiers to finish 50/1 second in this race in 2020
* Trainer with most juvenile hurdle runs without fall or unseat (153)
* Yard gone month without win but came within nose at Warwick on New Year’s Eve
Flat Profile
* Thrice down the field at two, beaten less than six lengths on couple of handicap runs in early summer off 55
Jumps Form
* Made hurdles bow following five month break in Leicester fillies’ juvenile contest (good to firm), first-time cheekpieces, started 9/2 third favourite having started day at 12/1
* Started prominently, steadied and slow over first two, went rear. Big over fourth, neat over next two, headway approaching penultimate flight where untidy, just about tidiest over last, won on the nod after battle to line while still looking green, front pair eleven lengths clear
* Time modest due partly to steady tempo, form amounts to little outside of unexposed French recruit in second; trainer has low first time strike rate so perhaps to credit
* Stepped up in class for listed fillies’ contest at Aintree, started 28/1
* Raced in rear, keen early, neat over first few jumps, unable to get close, mistakes over final two, finished 20½l sixth ahead of beaten horses
Summary
* Modest on flat but landed gamble in weak Leicester contest on hurdling debut. Overfaced at Aintree and something to find in this company.

Sanitiser bg Archie Watson f12-4-2 (90) 97
The Gurkha (Dalakhani){23-a}(0.41) 4/1 Former Senator 108 1st 2m Maiden Hurdle, Kilbeggan 2006
Breeding
* The Gurkha second crop, three winners from seven to date (Sonning, Champion Green, Addosh), quite short, Sussex Stakes winning son of Galileo (26.79% WR as grandsire)
* Dalakhani fair as sire and damsire
* Third dam Dance Design, herself a niece of winning hurdler Former Senator, 5/1 Executive Perk
Source
* ex-Paul Cole juveniles 14.29% WR
* Bought in for 20,000gns at Tatts Autumn Sale
Trainer
* Archie Watson without winner from two, both placing third without meeting market expectations (Alazwar, Noble Anthem)
* 53% strike rate with all hurdlers this season
* Fair recent form on flat
Jockey
* Brian Hughes winning most rider of juveniles in line-up (59 since 2004/05)
* 17.65% SR at Musselburgh (14.94% overall)
Flat Profile
* Won four from twelve on flat, winning three times at two and again on penultimate outing
* Latest win came in ten furlong racing league handicap at Windsor at start of September off 86, held up, headway from distance, led half-furlong, driven length clear
* Disappointed week later in similar contest at Southwell
* Prone to taking a keen hold and hanging under pressure, highest rated in line-up and generally runs to mark
Summary
* Highest rated flat horse in field, yard doing well with hurdlers (if not yet juveniles) and good Musselburgh pilot on board. Feasible pedigree but questionable temperament.

Ancora bf Ewan Whillans j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Amaron (Law Society){20-c}(2.27) 1/0 Ajesha 2x1st 4500m Listed Chase, Baden-Baden 2007
Breeding
* Ancora Amaron’s first juvenile in GB/IRE, one winner from five in France
* Law Society 22.86% WR as damsire
* Dam won two listed chases in Germany, winning German hurdler Areal at 4/2 on damline
Source
* Cost £12,000 at Goffs Yorton 2021
Trainer
* Ancora first juvenile for trainer
* Without winner in nearly four weeks, sprinter Ramon Di Loria has twice gone close
Jumps Form
* Sole racecourse outing came over course and distance in early November, started 100/1
* Took keen hold in rear, big and skewed over early jumps, detached in back straight, pulled up before turning for home
Summary
* Fair German pedigree but C&D debut two months ago offered absolutely no encouragement.

Strong prospects
1. Cabrakan
Reasonable prospects
2. Bringbackmemories
3. Freddy Robinson
4. Sanitiser
Feasible prospects
5. Paddy’s Fancy
6. Duyfken
Moderate prospects
7. Master Oliver
Negligible prospects
8. Jad Mahal
9. Ancora
 
BH-at this point in time what is your view on the Triumph.Not a race that I usually think about -I have a very strong opinion this year.
 
Comfort Zone -won nicely on his debut in a race that has worked out well. A week later he ran against Lossiemouth and respectably considering the 7 day gap and the fact that he looked like he would benefit from a stronger pace.
Turned out again last week in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow and got a balls of a ride from Jonjo junior -hitting the front way too soon but still managed to hold on.
JPOB knows how to train a festival winner and I could see the owner providing a pacemaker.At 14/1 he is the each way bet of the festival for me.
 
LUKE said:
Comfort Zone -won nicely on his debut in a race that has worked out well. A week later he ran against Lossiemouth and respectably considering the 7 day gap and the fact that he looked like he would benefit from a stronger pace.
Turned out again last week in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow and got a balls of a ride from Jonjo junior -hitting the front way too soon but still managed to hold on.
JPOB knows how to train a festival winner and I could see the owner providing a pacemaker.At 14/1 he is the each way bet of the festival for me.
Click to expand...

Fred Winter?
 
Why drop a Grade 2 winner to handicap class -anyway Willie is trying to get another JP horse handicapped for that -unfortunately the whole world has seen it.
 
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