Which is fair enough but I suspect you had that opinion before the Gold Cup on Friday as it is impossible to conclude that from Friday's race given that Kauto Star was beaten at the 2m4f-2m6f distance by both Denman and NC.
Kauto Star Or Denman
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Which is fair enough but I suspect you had that opinion before the Gold Cup on Friday as it is impossible to conclude that from Friday's race given that Kauto Star was beaten at the 2m4f-2m6f distance by both Denman and NC.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I did, although i kept changing my mind. He was so much more impressive at Ascot and Kempton than he was at Haydock that i thought his stamina was suspect. Three miles at Haydock does suit him, but the soft ground that day brought Exotic Dancer closer to him than he`s ever been.
I don`t get your final point. Ruby went for him earlier than normal not because he was emptying but because Denman was getting away. If he`d been ridden for second he`d have bested NC easily imo.
firstpastthepost
At the Start
i just cant believe that we will have to wait a year to see them against each other once again??
According to Nicholls we may never see them run against each other again - which would be almost criminal!
By his own admission the horse didn't seem himself before the race; paddock watchers have noted his coat seemed a bit dull too, and he'd had a recent injury scare.
I'm sorry but I just cannot buy this about KS being beaten *solely* because he was taken out of his comfort zone on the second circuit. He was jumping very poorly and losing ground at fences from VERY early on - the 2nd or 3rd fence on the FIRST circuit; and I remarked on that more than once to the people I sitting with, who agreed. The writing was on the wall very early as you cannot win a Gold Cup jumping like that - the horse was never happy and never jumping fluently [tho he put in a few good ones to remind us what he can do] - and only his class and courage got him round.
Re-writing history doesn't make it true. An awful lot of people are seeing the race in terms of what they expected or wanted to happen, not what actually happened.
A final word: Mick Fitz's judgment of pace is what made this race such a fascinating one to watch - he did his job perfectly to give Denman every chance of winning. I'm a huge Denman fan, always have been, but he didn't really have a rival on the premises on Friday.
By his own admission the horse didn't seem himself before the race; paddock watchers have noted his coat seemed a bit dull too, and he'd had a recent injury scare.
I'm sorry but I just cannot buy this about KS being beaten *solely* because he was taken out of his comfort zone on the second circuit. He was jumping very poorly and losing ground at fences from VERY early on - the 2nd or 3rd fence on the FIRST circuit; and I remarked on that more than once to the people I sitting with, who agreed. The writing was on the wall very early as you cannot win a Gold Cup jumping like that - the horse was never happy and never jumping fluently [tho he put in a few good ones to remind us what he can do] - and only his class and courage got him round.
Re-writing history doesn't make it true. An awful lot of people are seeing the race in terms of what they expected or wanted to happen, not what actually happened.
A final word: Mick Fitz's judgment of pace is what made this race such a fascinating one to watch - he did his job perfectly to give Denman every chance of winning. I'm a huge Denman fan, always have been, but he didn't really have a rival on the premises on Friday.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Echo.
trackside528
At the Start
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Spot on, tdk.
That said, I don't buy the notion that Kauto Star's poor jumping was solely down to Denman. When Kauto clouted the two in the straight the first time round the pace wasn't that searching; indeed, Fair Along went a faster clip in the Ascot Chase and Kauto didn't put a foot wrong that day.
Interesting to hear Nicholls mention all of the Ascot horses that ran below par at Cheltenham (bar Alberta's Run of course).
Kauto Star is a tremendous racehorse, no doubt about that, but he was comprehensively outpaced, outjumped and outstayed by Denman last Friday. The same applies to Exotic Dancer.
Am I the only one here who seems to feel that the benefit of the doubt should be given to Denman?
After all, he did win, didn't he?
Am I the only one here who seems to feel that the benefit of the doubt should be given to Denman?
After all, he did win, didn't he?
Well according to the poll there were 28 of us who'd agree. FWIW, Denman set a new high water mark in my ratings and eclipsed Best Mate who was my previous high. He also did the same for his SAC so it didn't really come as any surprise. He was always likely to have to run the race the way he did in order to win it, and he duly took Kauto into previously unchartered water with regards to pace and stamina at the trip
God how many times do we have to say it??!
No-one is trying to take anything away fromn Denman's victory - even the most partisan of Kauto's supporters has to concede that Denman might well have won anyway... even given a tiptop Kauto and perfect groud condittions.
All we are saying is that KS was clearly - to anyone with any objectivity - not quite right on the day, besides being unsuited by the ground; and he didn't give his running. Not at all.
Therefore, a rematch would be a good idea, even tho it might well give the same result
No-one is trying to take anything away fromn Denman's victory - even the most partisan of Kauto's supporters has to concede that Denman might well have won anyway... even given a tiptop Kauto and perfect groud condittions.
All we are saying is that KS was clearly - to anyone with any objectivity - not quite right on the day, besides being unsuited by the ground; and he didn't give his running. Not at all.
Therefore, a rematch would be a good idea, even tho it might well give the same result
Warbler...your a science/technical type of guy when if comes assessing a race. You like to quantify things...Please explain to me how firstly this Tingle Creek, Ascot Chase winner and King George was subjected to a stiffer test of speed in the Gold Cup than he was previously....is it just a hunch or is there hard fact?
Secondly how stamina came into play when the horse was clearly beat at the top of the hill.
trackside528
At the Start
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Gal, I fear you've opened a can of worms there! 
As I said before though, Fair Along went a better gallop in the Ascot Chase and Kauto Star jumped flawlessly.
What do we reckon about the ground? Heard it mentioned as sticky a few times now, was hard for me to get a grip on it on the day. Though I know that has been mentioned as a possible reason for Kauto's poor jumping, the notion that he doesn't handle cut is bollocks IMO. Interestingly enough, he seemed to get home alright as well.
As I said before though, Fair Along went a better gallop in the Ascot Chase and Kauto Star jumped flawlessly.
What do we reckon about the ground? Heard it mentioned as sticky a few times now, was hard for me to get a grip on it on the day. Though I know that has been mentioned as a possible reason for Kauto's poor jumping, the notion that he doesn't handle cut is bollocks IMO. Interestingly enough, he seemed to get home alright as well.
I think the relationship between speed and stamina is often misunderstood, or perhaps I should say misrepresented. Horses that run fast times do so because of their stamina. It seems however they we misuse the word as a kind of insult to suggest a horse is slow.
There's two principal ways that races get run, imho (well strictly speaking there's 100's, but it doesn't suit my hypothesis ).
The first concerns the slow race won by a horse that uses a devastating turn of foot by way of acceleration. These horses usually appear visually impressive but come Cheltenham, they are rarely allowed to replicate this kind of run.
The second type is the fast run race. In order to generate a fast time you need to be able to go through the sections economically and evenly. Horses have a cubic capacity (lungs) and therefore a top speed over which they can not go any quicker, for this reason time lost to a slow early pace can't be recaptured. Most grade 1 horses are capable of reaching the same top speed, but not all of them can sustain this level. Which is where stamina comes into play. Effectively the fastest horse is often the last one to stop slowing up.
The race time was the fastest on the card, and also the fastest I've recorded for the Gold Cup (significantly faster than Best Mate). Last years Gold Cup was the slowest I hold a record for, and my hypothesis was that Kauto Star at 3 and a quarter miles off a quick pace might be vulnerable, as he'd never been required to perform to that level previously. Basically Denman needed to serve it up to him from about half way and just hammer out the sections. The critical aspect when assessing the speed here is not the theoretical topspeed they reach or level of acceleration shown, but the amount of time during the race they are required to sustain this speed for. Stamina is any other language.
Perhaps the best example that illustrates this relationship between speed and stamina was Tidal Bay. He too has run a very fast time, and now nudges MWDS out of second spot on my Arkle ratings. He was able to bring his stamina into play by sustaining the fast speed he set for longer than the opposition. It is perhaps no coincidence that both he and MWDS (the last two winners) were successful at further than the bare 2 miles.
It's a possible explanation as to why the Supreme Novices seems to be a source for future staying chasers too. This race is normally run at a clip and requires much more stamina than is often realised as we tend to associate stamina with distance all too readily. In many respects it isn't necessarily true. A punishing 2 miles is every bit as draining as a slower race run over further. It's possibly no coincidence that another race that is often run quickly (though wasn't this year) is the Champion Hurdle. Most winners (and certainly those who did it in a quick time) have been successful at further. Istabraq and Hardy Eustace both won Sun Alliance Hurdles for isntance and account 5 wins in the last 10 years.
A bit has been made about the Supreme being quicker than the Champion. I've dug the sections out now and it makes very interesting reading. They reached the second hurdle 5 seconds quicker than Osana, but by the time they reached the third they'd made this time back. You would normally expect the grade 1 open horses to establish a level of superiority over the novices from about here onwards, but for what ever reason they didn't. It probably points to the Supreme being well above average and the Champion being poor
There's two principal ways that races get run, imho (well strictly speaking there's 100's, but it doesn't suit my hypothesis
). The first concerns the slow race won by a horse that uses a devastating turn of foot by way of acceleration. These horses usually appear visually impressive but come Cheltenham, they are rarely allowed to replicate this kind of run.
The second type is the fast run race. In order to generate a fast time you need to be able to go through the sections economically and evenly. Horses have a cubic capacity (lungs) and therefore a top speed over which they can not go any quicker, for this reason time lost to a slow early pace can't be recaptured. Most grade 1 horses are capable of reaching the same top speed, but not all of them can sustain this level. Which is where stamina comes into play. Effectively the fastest horse is often the last one to stop slowing up.
The race time was the fastest on the card, and also the fastest I've recorded for the Gold Cup (significantly faster than Best Mate). Last years Gold Cup was the slowest I hold a record for, and my hypothesis was that Kauto Star at 3 and a quarter miles off a quick pace might be vulnerable, as he'd never been required to perform to that level previously. Basically Denman needed to serve it up to him from about half way and just hammer out the sections. The critical aspect when assessing the speed here is not the theoretical topspeed they reach or level of acceleration shown, but the amount of time during the race they are required to sustain this speed for. Stamina is any other language.
Perhaps the best example that illustrates this relationship between speed and stamina was Tidal Bay. He too has run a very fast time, and now nudges MWDS out of second spot on my Arkle ratings. He was able to bring his stamina into play by sustaining the fast speed he set for longer than the opposition. It is perhaps no coincidence that both he and MWDS (the last two winners) were successful at further than the bare 2 miles.
It's a possible explanation as to why the Supreme Novices seems to be a source for future staying chasers too. This race is normally run at a clip and requires much more stamina than is often realised as we tend to associate stamina with distance all too readily. In many respects it isn't necessarily true. A punishing 2 miles is every bit as draining as a slower race run over further. It's possibly no coincidence that another race that is often run quickly (though wasn't this year) is the Champion Hurdle. Most winners (and certainly those who did it in a quick time) have been successful at further. Istabraq and Hardy Eustace both won Sun Alliance Hurdles for isntance and account 5 wins in the last 10 years.
A bit has been made about the Supreme being quicker than the Champion. I've dug the sections out now and it makes very interesting reading. They reached the second hurdle 5 seconds quicker than Osana, but by the time they reached the third they'd made this time back. You would normally expect the grade 1 open horses to establish a level of superiority over the novices from about here onwards, but for what ever reason they didn't. It probably points to the Supreme being well above average and the Champion being poor
firstpastthepost
At the Start
the argument is gonna go on and on till they meet again so we have another year to wait,hopefully we get to see GOOD ground in the gold cup next year and both horses show up at there best and maybe all the questions will be answered unlike this years race. i for one don't believe that was kauto at his best.
EC1
On a break
My basic speed analysis confirms your view Warbler
the problem is that people don't read posts about speed figures or hold any store by them particularly over the sticks...amply displayed on this thread where I've wasted time tryiing to show that Denman was a very fast winner...which ties in with the fact that KS was asked to go faster than he ever has in the past....go back and read the posts Galileo.
Best Mate also displayed a great ability to jump and run at great speed...he also never got the acclaim he probably deserved
the fact is...that Best Mate V Denman would have been a great race on Friday...probably better than the one we saw...simply because he could jump at the sort of speed Denman can over the full 3m2f trip.
the problem is that people don't read posts about speed figures or hold any store by them particularly over the sticks...amply displayed on this thread where I've wasted time tryiing to show that Denman was a very fast winner...which ties in with the fact that KS was asked to go faster than he ever has in the past....go back and read the posts Galileo.
Best Mate also displayed a great ability to jump and run at great speed...he also never got the acclaim he probably deserved
the fact is...that Best Mate V Denman would have been a great race on Friday...probably better than the one we saw...simply because he could jump at the sort of speed Denman can over the full 3m2f trip.
I wouldn't be so sure about the first part of that statement EC. The second part however, may be true and the only way to try and enlighten, educate , show their use, is by people like Simon Rowlands writing articles and people yourself and Warbler etc discussing them on message boards
We've all read *all* of the posts - with great attention, I've no doubt.
Some people however won't face the fact that KS was never going, from early out - so Friday is not a definitive proof of anything; and subsequent remarks by Nicholls make it even clearer that the evidence of one's own eyes {regarding KS not being on top form} is correct
Which - yet again - is not to deny Denman his victory in a very fast time, nor his deserved accolade as the best winner in a long time, on the day
PS Nicholls' latest comments, for tomorrow's RP:
Future plans
And
Ruby's comments
Some people however won't face the fact that KS was never going, from early out - so Friday is not a definitive proof of anything; and subsequent remarks by Nicholls make it even clearer that the evidence of one's own eyes {regarding KS not being on top form} is correct
Which - yet again - is not to deny Denman his victory in a very fast time, nor his deserved accolade as the best winner in a long time, on the day
PS Nicholls' latest comments, for tomorrow's RP:
Future plans
And
Ruby's comments
trackside528
At the Start
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- 5,377
Fair play, Warbler. I don't think the Gold Cup provided a definitive answer to the KS/Denman question, but the race certainly panned out as you predicted.
From here on out, by the way, the "jog and sprint" race will be referred to as Ebaziyan's Law.
From here on out, by the way, the "jog and sprint" race will be referred to as Ebaziyan's Law.
disputed 2nd until not fluent 5th, not fluent again 6th, led with big jump 12th, not fluent last, soon ridden, kept on under pressure when pressed towards finish
held up in 3rd place, ridden after 10th, not fluent 11th, left 2nd 4 out, about 5 lengths down 3 out, ridden to close on winner when jumped left 2 out, hung left after, kept on under pressure run-in, always held
well in touch, pressed leader from 12th, hit 15th, led 3 out, shaken up and drew clear from next, blundered last, stayed on strongly
Face facts Headstrong - Not fluent, hitting fences, blundering, hanging, soon ridden never stopped Kauto Star running to form before
We've had ground put forward, we've had not going put forward, we've had Neptune Collognes position put forward .
I'll put this forward - could it not be that Kauto Star is not the horse people think he is???
That Kauto hit fences was always part of the analysis/ rationale for backing Denman so I can't really have it as an excuse. Although much improved this season, he'd crashed twice before, and made two serious mistakes that might have seen him on the deck at less forgiving tracks than Kempton and Newbury. There was always a pretty good chance that if Denman was able to start serving it up to him from so far out he'd get Kauto under pressure. My own figures indicate that Kauto would have won all but the 2004 renewal going back to 1997.
I'm not so sure that Neptunes Collonges can be used to crab the form though I understand that he can as well, (if that isn't too much of a contradiction). He was seeing the hill out better than any of the front 3 and probably ran a big race under conditions that would suit.
I think the ground is a plausible explanation of sorts but only in so far as it might have inconvenienced one horse more than the other. My own variance figure was -3.87 which is consistent with 'Soft' and isn't too far removed from a surface that Kauto's distinguished himself on previous. He won the Betfair Chase on -3.75 at Haydock, -2.40 for the King George and -0.39 at Ascot. These figures broadly translate to Soft, Good to Soft, and Good.
My best guess at this stage is that race pace, at the extended trip on a stiff track has done for him. Unedifying as some might feel that Finlays post race comment was about 'breaking Kauto's heart' was, I reckon he might be prety well close to the truth with it.
I'm sure a few of us have watched the race again, but is definately notable when Denman starts his assault, by simply cranking up the sections some way out. Given his ability to jump big, accurate and straight, it was the only way he was ever going to win.
It certainly throws the cat amongst the pigeons regarding the Grand National, but I'd have thought Harry must have more than one eye on the possibility of the Betfair bonus. I do share some of the concerns about going to Aintree, but Harry is nothing if not a sportsman and although everyone's aware of the risks, he should be applauded for providing a spectacle and allowing the horse to cement his place in history. There were a few of us who thought taking on the Hennessey was a bit daft, Harry was proved right however. And it's not as if we've seen any frailties in his jumping to suggest he'll be in danger at Liverpool.
Just by way of mischievous thought though. If Denman goes to the National, then off their current marks Gungadu might get in carrying 10.2 norty. I'd be tempted, prize money is prize money and owning a National winner a dream that few can realise.
I'm not so sure that Neptunes Collonges can be used to crab the form though I understand that he can as well, (if that isn't too much of a contradiction). He was seeing the hill out better than any of the front 3 and probably ran a big race under conditions that would suit.
I think the ground is a plausible explanation of sorts but only in so far as it might have inconvenienced one horse more than the other. My own variance figure was -3.87 which is consistent with 'Soft' and isn't too far removed from a surface that Kauto's distinguished himself on previous. He won the Betfair Chase on -3.75 at Haydock, -2.40 for the King George and -0.39 at Ascot. These figures broadly translate to Soft, Good to Soft, and Good.
My best guess at this stage is that race pace, at the extended trip on a stiff track has done for him. Unedifying as some might feel that Finlays post race comment was about 'breaking Kauto's heart' was, I reckon he might be prety well close to the truth with it.
I'm sure a few of us have watched the race again, but is definately notable when Denman starts his assault, by simply cranking up the sections some way out. Given his ability to jump big, accurate and straight, it was the only way he was ever going to win.
It certainly throws the cat amongst the pigeons regarding the Grand National, but I'd have thought Harry must have more than one eye on the possibility of the Betfair bonus. I do share some of the concerns about going to Aintree, but Harry is nothing if not a sportsman and although everyone's aware of the risks, he should be applauded for providing a spectacle and allowing the horse to cement his place in history. There were a few of us who thought taking on the Hennessey was a bit daft, Harry was proved right however. And it's not as if we've seen any frailties in his jumping to suggest he'll be in danger at Liverpool.
Just by way of mischievous thought though. If Denman goes to the National, then off their current marks Gungadu might get in carrying 10.2 norty. I'd be tempted, prize money is prize money and owning a National winner a dream that few can realise.
Since the King George AC? Since slaughtered decent performers at Ascot?
Yes Charlie, you are right....looking back on Kauto Star's form...destruction of Voy Por Ustedes over 2 miles...bltizing of Our Vic on the bridle over three miles etc etc.....it all clearly points to him being a horse of similar ability to Neptune Collonges.
Yes Charlie, you are right....looking back on Kauto Star's form...destruction of Voy Por Ustedes over 2 miles...bltizing of Our Vic on the bridle over three miles etc etc.....it all clearly points to him being a horse of similar ability to Neptune Collonges.
One below par performance (why dont some people actually watch the race rather pointless gawping at stopwatches?) and KS has suddenly been "proved" to be no better than the (very likeable) Neptune Collonges
Unbelievable....
Desert Orchid is the finest chaser i ever saw. He got deservedly high ratings and was rightly adored for his flair and heart by all who saw him. But he didnt win EVERY race and not least at Cheltenham
Presumably when DO just finished in front of Yahoo (in the most stirring race i have watched) that proved that he was little better than that particular horse regardless of the staggering weight carrying performance beating Pegwell Bay at Sandown in the previous race and the KGV at a canter just two months before
Unbelievable....
Desert Orchid is the finest chaser i ever saw. He got deservedly high ratings and was rightly adored for his flair and heart by all who saw him. But he didnt win EVERY race and not least at Cheltenham
Presumably when DO just finished in front of Yahoo (in the most stirring race i have watched) that proved that he was little better than that particular horse regardless of the staggering weight carrying performance beating Pegwell Bay at Sandown in the previous race and the KGV at a canter just two months before