Kauto Star Or Denman

Kauto or Debman

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Fair point.

Why were they even thinking about tactics? He beat Our Vic 11 lengths on the bridle at Christmas. He's beaten Exotic Dancer every time they've met. He nearly gave Monet's Garden a sack of spuds on his seasonal debut. They obviously know all about Gungadu. So if they thought Kauto was 100%, what the f*** would tactics matter? Dicking around indeed.
 
Experimenting? Kind of using this race to see if taking Denman on in the same way would be workable.

Also, i can`t help feeling an owner/trainer with a bit of nous would never have had Monet`s Garden in this race.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous+Apr 3 2008, 10:58 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Euronymous @ Apr 3 2008, 10:58 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Warbler@Apr 3 2008, 11:47 PM
It wasn't the tactics that cost him the race though. That's just Nicholls being magnaminous. When they came to the second last Kauto had established superiority and was booked to win until Walsh put him into the fence all wrong, and cost them victory. That's got nothing to do with the tactics and everything to do with how Ruby presented the fence to the horse.




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But he`s clouted fences like that before and still won. The tactics meant he didn`t have the petrol in the tank to ride those last or second last fence errors. [/b][/quote]
I think it's important that we recognise he's clouted the last fence like that before, and got away with it. The run in from the last to the post at Kempton is a short one, (about 153yds) and his case was helped by the fact that the runner up (Exotic Dancer) also clattered it nearly as badly. The run in at Newbury looks to be about 285yds. Unfortunately I've struggled to find the winning post at Aintree (Google earth) but reckon the run from the second last to the post is about 490 yds. Had he hit the last fence rather than the second last like that today, he'd have hung on (as indeed he has before) but this time he hit one further out of course.

I don't think it was an especially fast race today so he should have had the petrol in the tank. He's won on more testing ground too over 3 miles. That he emptied the way he did suggests to me that he'd had the stuffing knocked out of him by virtue of landing on top of the fence. I don't think it's a stamina issue the result of going too fast early. To my mind it was a jockey error, pure and simple. Afterall, you can't keep crashing horses into fences and expect it not to effect performance.
 
Regardless of the error, Kauto Star should have been so far in front by Our Vic at that stage (ala the King George) it should not have been the difference.

The truth is, this one time Tingle Creek winner, has struggled to lay up let alone pass the likes of Neptune Collonges and Our Vic a mile out in his races. His jumping is not great but more for me is he is no longer travelling and quickening with the ease he once showed. Yeah he went a few lengths clear of Our Vic off the bend but it was seriously hard work.

Something wrong with the horse since Ascot, and hopefully a good break will see him return to form.
 
Or could be a classic case of a French bred going over the hill at a relatively young age in the same was as did The Fellow, Baracouda, etc.?

Bearing in mind, however, the relative finishing positions of Exotic Dancer, Monet's Garden and Gungadu, can we really discount the possibility that blinkers have brought about significant improvement in Our Vic?
 
An Irish radio station called Willie Mullins this morning to discuss the GN tomorrow.
The final question was what instructions he intended to give Ruby Walsh on Hedgehunter. There was an incredulous silence. Then..

"Ehhhmmm, I'd never try to tell Ruby Walsh how to ride a horse.."
 
Originally posted by Desert Orchid@Apr 4 2008, 09:06 AM
Or could be a classic case of a French bred going over the hill at a relatively young age in the same was as did The Fellow, Baracouda, etc.?

Bearing in mind, however, the relative finishing positions of Exotic Dancer, Monet's Garden and Gungadu, can we really discount the possibility that blinkers have brought about significant improvement in Our Vic?
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Exotic Dancer hasnt been right all year. Monet's Garden was beaten after four fences yesterday. Gungadu is not up to this standard, and the form is solid.

I dont buy it. I'm discounting it.
 
Originally posted by an capall@Apr 4 2008, 09:41 AM
An Irish radio station called Willie Mullins this morning to discuss the GN tomorrow.
The final question was what instructions he intended to give Ruby Walsh on Hedgehunter. There was an incredulous silence. Then..

"Ehhhmmm, I'd never try to tell Ruby Walsh how to ride a horse.."
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:clap:
 
KS is still a brilliant horse...he is NOT a machine as many "experts" hope.
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Agree




I'm of the mind, the tough race he had in GC, the quick return, 2nd last fence blunder was sufficient enough not to see him at his best yesterday


FWIW. Looks to me like Our Vic has run similar to Ryanair which would have Kauto running to about his Commercial First mark



Top class effort, but half a stone or so below his best efforts - he'll be back imo
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Apr 4 2008, 08:10 AM

Something wrong with the horse since Ascot, and hopefully a good break will see him return to form.
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This is absolutely the case and there is yet more stuff coming out about this [via the 'back door' - I've now got more than one source on this]. So it's pointless discussing this race as though Kauto Star was running to his optimum and thus being beaten on merit - he wasn't.

A few on here seem constantly ignore the FACT that horses are flesh and blood - sometimes they are 'not right' and no amount of tinkering with figures is going to change that.

As for hindsight. Obviously we have to take on trust when a horse arrives at a Grade 1 race that's it's in peak condition for the race. In this instance we had misgivings - some of us who understand a bit about horses anyway - which only turned out to be justified after the horse had run, since in each case the run was well below what he's capable of.

It's surely not hindsight to then question, on the evidence of one's own eyes, whether the horse should have been put away for the season after his injury, however appalling the prospect of all the media fallout etc etc? The information I'm getting tells me that the yard must have known all wasn't quite right - the horse was telling them so... it's understandable however that they took the risk for various reasons. I'm just saying *on balance* I'd rather they hadn't, and I think the OM was the clincher 2nd time round, along with the 'superiority' of the horse on past runs - just as the 'big clash' and attendant hype was the clincher first time.

Warbler, I take your point that KS met the fence 2 out all wrong - but he was totally out on his legs already and starting to wobble. There is very little a rider can do in that case other than try to let the horse get over with minimum interference - you so often see inexperienced jocks trying to fire a tired horse at a fence, and the horse meeting it all wrong and falling. When a horse's legs have gone to jelly, you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. It was a miracle the horse managed to get home at all - my heart was in my mouth for him well before the 2nd last!

Finally, I've no doubt in my own mind that Neptune Collonges and Our Vic are both 'better horses' this season than they were last. This shows in terms of resolution as much as in time figures. Again, it's to do with a horse being happy and well in himself - horses do change in their attitude as much as in their physical well-being, the one no doubt being inextricably linked to the other!

These are animals we are talking about - highly strung and immensely complicated, fragile animals at that - not motor cars ffs :rolleyes:
 
A few on message boards seem to assume that some of the people they interact with are numpties, blind, cannot read a race, cannot interpret the form book etc.etc


I personally go on what a horse does on the racetrack and what these performances against other horses tell me, not what a trainer, jockey, stable lad or cleaner says.

i find it helps me find 2007 Arc winners, 2007 Classic winners, 2008 Gold Cup winners, 2008 Dubai World Cup winners, 2007 Golden Jubilee winners and so and and so
 
The betfair million bonus is all change for next season.

Any horse who finishes in the first three in the Betfair Chase and first or second at any race at the Cheltenham Festival will be eligible for the £1 million jackpot when lining up for the Grand National. A qualifying horse who wins at Aintree will scoop the pot.
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Originally posted by Charlie D@Apr 4 2008, 12:50 PM
i find it helps me find 2007 Arc winners.......
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that's some going, I've only ever managed to find the winner of the Arc 4 or 5 times myself. Congrats.




Re the Betfair Million - in these heady days of 180+ rated chasers, the Betfair Million in it's old format was very winnable. The new format reduces the chances of it's being won dramatically, IMO, whilst adding the benefit of GN day exposure.
 
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