Kauto Star Or Denman

Kauto or Debman

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Any chance that the 29th person who appears to have voted for Denman after the race is prepared to identify themselves :brows:
 
It will be interesting to see how Timeform rate the race, given that they had both Neptunes C and Halcon G at 165 beforehand.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Mar 17 2008, 11:37 AM
Since the King George AC? Since slaughtered decent performers at Ascot?

Yes Charlie, you are right....looking back on Kauto Star's form...destruction of Voy Por Ustedes over 2 miles...bltizing of Our Vic on the bridle over three miles etc etc.....it all clearly points to him being a horse of similar ability to Neptune Collonges.
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Should not a 180 horse beat a 170 rated horse like KS beat VPE Gal?????


Can not that same 180 horse beat Exotic Dancer, Our Vic, Racing Demon, Monets Garden like it has been doing, when those horses are running to 170 or less Gal????

Can not Exotic Dancer get closer to KS when he is running nearer to his ability , like in the BF Chase Gal???


Can not Neptune Collognes improve 2, 4, 6, 8, 10lbs Gal????
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Mar 17 2008, 07:11 AM
There was always a pretty good chance that if Denman was able to start serving it up to him from so far out he'd get Kauto under pressure. My own figures indicate that Kauto would have won all but the 2004 renewal going back to 1997.
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Any way you could do a comparison of the Gold Cup sectionals with the Ascot Chase (or even the KG)? I'm convinced that Fair Along was going just as hard in front at Ascot as Neptune Collonges/Denman in front going out on the second circuit at Cheltenham. Difference was, while Kauto put in a virtually faultless round at Ascot, his jumping was under pressure before they went out on the second circuit at Cheltenham.

Can't have the soft ground as a reason for his poor jumping really (unless it was really tacky). He's had no trouble jumping out of it before.
 
RP analysis for Neptune Collognes Wincanton race

Reports that he has improved since last season due to a sinus operation seem justified
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Third-home Neptune Collonges (180), like the runner-up, made a few mistakes but is worth his rating, and confirmed the impression given on his Wincanton reappearance that he is a much better horse this season
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Could not the reports of improvement since last season and the RP's Steve Mason impression of the the Wincanton run be correct regarding Neptune Collognes being a much better horse this season ???
 
Do you really envisage Neptune Collonges destroying fields in the same manner as Kauto has over the past 18 months?

a very likeable horse and probable improver, but i dont recall Nichols suggesting that hes the "best hes trained"
 
Originally posted by clivex@Mar 17 2008, 02:28 PM
Do you really envisage Neptune Collonges destroying fields in the same manner as Kauto has over the past 18 months?

a very likeable horse and probable improver, but i dont recall Nichols suggesting that hes the "best hes trained"
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Didn't he do exactly that at Wincanton Clivex


don't forget Clivex this horse was 2-1f for Charlie Hall, so someone thought he had some ability
 
Oh come off it now

That Wincnaton race was hardly the KGV let alone a GC. It was a very good performance but hardly in the class of what we've seen from Kauto :rolleyes:
 
jaysus, the wincaton race is being equated with a grade 1. Mon Mome the one danger i saw to him in that race was pulled up, and he was left with Naunton Brook to beat, which he did with style.

NC is undoubtedly a very good horse, good enough to win a gold cup in most years, but there is a serious rewriting of history here to suggest Kauto Star was as good as he can be last Friday.

He started 2/1 for the Charlie Hall but was beaten by Kingscliffe and a few others.
 
Originally posted by clivex@Mar 17 2008, 02:43 PM
Oh come off it now

That Wincnaton race was hardly the KGV let alone a GC. It was a very good performance but hardly in the class of what we've seen from Kauto :rolleyes:
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Clivex


according to RP the performance was 6lbs short of 180


6 lengths behind KS with possibly more to come according to the RP handicapper



The evidence is there, Steve Mason saw it, why can't you and others see it too
 
In case it's causing confusion, I think the RP upgraded that Wincanton run to 180 after the GC.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Mar 17 2008, 02:57 PM
In case it's causing confusion, I think the RP upgraded that Wincanton run to 180 after the GC.
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Correct Gareth and they were right to do so imo
 
Presumably on the basis of Naunton Brookes and Mon Mores subsequent devastating performances?
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Mar 17 2008, 03:04 PM
It will be interesting to see what Neptune Collonges does to Mossbank at Punchestown.
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Correct Gal, just like it was interesting to see what Denman did in Lexus after his Hennesey romp


Clivex, just because some horses don't uphold a race, it does not mean the winning performance is carp


Denman - Dream Alliance, The Listener being perfect examples
 
For what its worth, I think Neptune Collonges would hammer Mossbank at Punchestown. Upmost of respect for the horse.
 
Originally posted by Charlie D+Mar 17 2008, 04:08 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Charlie D @ Mar 17 2008, 04:08 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Galileo@Mar 17 2008, 03:04 PM
It will be interesting to see what Neptune Collonges does to Mossbank at Punchestown.
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Correct Gal, just like it was interesting to see what Denman did in Lexus after his Hennesey romp


Clivex, just because some horses don't uphold a race, it does not mean the winning performance is carp


Denman - Dream Alliance, The Listener being perfect examples [/b][/quote]
Thats where I fundamentally disagree......thats how Mossbank got an official rating of 170 in the Lexus Chase. You rate a horse what he beat and what he actually achieved....not what you want it to achieve or think it can achieve.

As for Neptune Collonges vs Mossbank.....I would expect him to hammer the horse if he is capable of hitting the 178-180 mark.
 
Presuming Neptune Collonges wins (a big if, imo) by say 2 lengths ridden out, will they raise mossbank to 176, or will they say NC ran slightly below form? :rolleyes:
 
Gal



Denman beat the Listerner 170, BoS 167, State of Play 160, L'antartique 154 and that works out about a 170 winning performance with Mossbank posting about 166, but that 166 needs and the race needs to be treated with caution because of the way it was run


That and ED's problem's are why i did not lay Kauto Star on friday, the Kauto Star that won the GC by being the quickest horse out of the blocks, the same Kauto Star that was running out of gas in the BF Chase
 
Clivex, just because some horses don't uphold a race, it does not mean the winning performance is carp
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Im not saying that... :rolleyes:

Like all easy wins, it was probably hard to rate anyway but as Gal says, it should not be revised subsequently on the basis of a different vicorty over different horses

In truth, there would be more justification for re rating a race if one of the vanquished came out and showed improved form. But even with that i would disagree

I like NC a lot and also believe we are going to see some great stuff from him....
 
Thats why the handicapper has gone and raised the Wincaton rating Clive, he now has more evidence to tell him it was better than his first impression


HC 173 horse beaten 9 lengths by the horse he gave 174+ too


Talk about banging head
 
Wow wow wow...sorry I must be missing something? Neptune Collonges winning in a 6 runner handicap where only 4 horses finished is now rated a 180 performance? I give up...the world (or maybe it's just me) has gone mad.

Lets look at that handicap...the horse's finishing behind the winner-

Naunton Brook - finished 66 lenghts 3rd over the weekend.
Butler´s Cabin - not run since but had previous been thrashed by Gungadu.
Niche Market - finished 4th in the 4 miler at Cheltenham.
Preacher Boy - not run since.
Mon Mome - finished third at Folkstone and well beaten in a handicap at Cheltenham.
 
Totally agree. Retrospective re ratings have to be dubious anyway (where would its top?) but that of all races?

Is it really conceivable that NC improved by 20 odd lbs form the previous Cheltenham run too?
 
I have just looked it up....that 180 rating for winning the handicap puts him within 1lb of Moscow Flyer's Tingle Creek. How can any handicapper take such liberties.

If your going to rate a horse 180 the form needs to be far more solid than that pathetic contest.
 
I give up too, as there's no point in keep repeating what i've already stated, also you can see it for yourself if you use all the evidence available to you
 
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