Kauto Star Or Denman
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It`s patently obvious that NC did improve, that`s the whole point.
Moscow Flyer was given a rating of 184+ in 2005 - they didn`t have the balls to rate him higher, even though a + rating on a given race by a horse is usually rounded up when it comes to the rating they publish in their Annuals (assuming it`s the animals best performance)
Although I made a mistake ( which Gareth kindly pointed out) i've tried to explain as simple as possible why Denman and Kauto do not warrant a rating higher than Dessie. A similar scenario will probably apply to Moscow Flyer too, but it seems to have gone over your head, so will not try explaining anything further.
I think a former TF editor stated something like "handicapping is not about plucking numbers out of the air"
I get impression, you seem to think it is
I know I shouldn't but I couldn't resist bringing Nick Mordins verdict to our collective attentions I can only assume the last paragraph is a coded reference to Tidal bay, as I'm seriously struggling he could be alluding to Albertas Run :laughing:
DENMAN PROVES ME WRONG
I've been knocking DENMAN (42) all season because sectional times showed that he'd been winning his races with a sprint of around six furlongs in what were otherwise slow run races.
In the Gold Cup Denman showed that he could produce a six furlong sprint off a reasonably good pace as well. His jockey took a long look around after the fifteenth and decided it was time to push the button. The result was that Denman ran 1 minute 34.5 seconds from the sixteenth fence to the second last. That's 3.1 seconds faster than they managed in the two mile Grand Annual and 7.1 seconds faster than in the Foxhunters. In other words Denman's six furlong sprint accounted for 52% of the difference in time between the two big three and a quarter mile chases on the card.
As ever Denman tired towards the end of his big sprint` taking exactly a second longer to run from the last to the finish than in the Foxhunters and 2.3 seconds longer than in the Grand Annual.
The presence of NEPTUNES COLLONGES (40) and HALCON GENALARDAIS (37) in third and fourth suggests this wasn't as good a performance by Denman as many seem to suppose. Both are smart horses, but, as their connections have repeatedly said, neither likes Cheltenham. In fact I've had to assume that both ran significantly faster than they ever had before at Cheltenham which makes me a little uncomfortable about the big rating I've given Denman.
I have to say that I am still no fan of Denman. I can't help wondering just how well he'd have done here if he'd been forced to go the searching early pace that Kauto Star had to contend with in the King George. My belief is that his sprint would have been of shorter duration and that he'd have tired earlier and quite possibly lost. Only time will tell if I'm right.
KAUTO STAR (40) was probably feeling the effect of his very fast race at Ascot which his trainer admitted afterwards probably took the edge off him. He was also stretched into jumping errors at the 16th and 17th fences as Denman began his sprint, and again at the last. Clearly he's best suited by a stronger early pace and can get stretched into jumping errors when a race develops into a sprint.
As a fan of Kauto Star I'd like to believe that he'll be able to turn this result around in next year's Gold Cup. But no horse has ever won two or more Gold Cups in non-consecutive years. Once this particular crown has slipped from their grasp it seems there's no getting it back.
In fact the last twelve Cheltenham Gold Cup winners have all run 13 or fewer times over fences, won at least half their completed starts over the bigger jumps and had reached the first three in a Grade 1 chase. This excludes Kauto Star from consideration next year., though it should include Denman, unless he's campaigned more ambitiously than seems likely.
Personally I plan to indulge in a case of sour grapes and will look for something from this season's vintage crop of novice chasers to beat Denman next year. But even I have to admit that this was a pretty good performance by the beast.
DENMAN PROVES ME WRONG
I've been knocking DENMAN (42) all season because sectional times showed that he'd been winning his races with a sprint of around six furlongs in what were otherwise slow run races.
In the Gold Cup Denman showed that he could produce a six furlong sprint off a reasonably good pace as well. His jockey took a long look around after the fifteenth and decided it was time to push the button. The result was that Denman ran 1 minute 34.5 seconds from the sixteenth fence to the second last. That's 3.1 seconds faster than they managed in the two mile Grand Annual and 7.1 seconds faster than in the Foxhunters. In other words Denman's six furlong sprint accounted for 52% of the difference in time between the two big three and a quarter mile chases on the card.
As ever Denman tired towards the end of his big sprint` taking exactly a second longer to run from the last to the finish than in the Foxhunters and 2.3 seconds longer than in the Grand Annual.
The presence of NEPTUNES COLLONGES (40) and HALCON GENALARDAIS (37) in third and fourth suggests this wasn't as good a performance by Denman as many seem to suppose. Both are smart horses, but, as their connections have repeatedly said, neither likes Cheltenham. In fact I've had to assume that both ran significantly faster than they ever had before at Cheltenham which makes me a little uncomfortable about the big rating I've given Denman.
I have to say that I am still no fan of Denman. I can't help wondering just how well he'd have done here if he'd been forced to go the searching early pace that Kauto Star had to contend with in the King George. My belief is that his sprint would have been of shorter duration and that he'd have tired earlier and quite possibly lost. Only time will tell if I'm right.
KAUTO STAR (40) was probably feeling the effect of his very fast race at Ascot which his trainer admitted afterwards probably took the edge off him. He was also stretched into jumping errors at the 16th and 17th fences as Denman began his sprint, and again at the last. Clearly he's best suited by a stronger early pace and can get stretched into jumping errors when a race develops into a sprint.
As a fan of Kauto Star I'd like to believe that he'll be able to turn this result around in next year's Gold Cup. But no horse has ever won two or more Gold Cups in non-consecutive years. Once this particular crown has slipped from their grasp it seems there's no getting it back.
In fact the last twelve Cheltenham Gold Cup winners have all run 13 or fewer times over fences, won at least half their completed starts over the bigger jumps and had reached the first three in a Grade 1 chase. This excludes Kauto Star from consideration next year., though it should include Denman, unless he's campaigned more ambitiously than seems likely.
Personally I plan to indulge in a case of sour grapes and will look for something from this season's vintage crop of novice chasers to beat Denman next year. But even I have to admit that this was a pretty good performance by the beast.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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According to my figures, NC didn't necessarily improve. Neither did Halcon G.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Awful analysis, just terrible. Nicholls has shown time and again that he is pretty clueless as to some of his charge`s optimum conditions.
If the pace had been quicker, if Denman had had to contend with a spolier/pacemaker he`d have just hung back and gone his own pace - like he did with Ollie Magern in the Aon.
Not for the first or last time have polls proved worthless. The only thing that we might have done with this info is to anticipate the level of support for Kauto on the day and use that to take advantage of lengthening prices in Denman.
Kauto Star was never going to show his best round here. His style is much better suited to easier courses.
The fact that he ran 5lb better than when winning the Gold Cup last year and was still no match for Denman just about says it all.
Denman will always beat Kauto at Cheltenham and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is also good enough to beat him elsewhere, certainly anywhere where you need to jump.
Kauto Star was never going to show his best round here. His style is much better suited to easier courses.
The fact that he ran 5lb better than when winning the Gold Cup last year and was still no match for Denman just about says it all.
Denman will always beat Kauto at Cheltenham and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is also good enough to beat him elsewhere, certainly anywhere where you need to jump.
firstpastthepost
At the Start
was i the only person that caught ruby crying?
Kauto Star is a shadow of his former self. In his last two races he has struggled to get past the likes of Our Vic and Neptune Collonges. In the Gold Cup we were told that Denman “forced” Kauto Star into mistakes and that no horse previously was capable of that. Our Vic has done it today and we know what KS has done to him before at his peak.
I fear this could be the end of a wonderful racehorse at his peak who never really get the credit he deserved when at his peak. RUK are suggesting KS has not run that much below form today for God Sake!
I fear this could be the end of a wonderful racehorse at his peak who never really get the credit he deserved when at his peak. RUK are suggesting KS has not run that much below form today for God Sake!
Agree Galileo, but credit must go to Our Vic as well. A very underrated, and unfairly criticsed racehorse. Better than Neptune Collonges so please lets hope the handicapper gets things in perspective and corrects the mess that is the ratings of the gold cup..
simmo
Senior Jockey
It wouldn't be the first time that a horse who had a hard race at Cheltenham hasn't shown his best form at Aintree. A bit too early imo to establish if Kauto can run to his previous best in the future.
I'd be more inclined to point the finger at R. Walsh and his inability to present the fence to the horse. I know of someone who has a theory that Ruby doesn't ride Kauto very well and has a habit of transferring his own anxiety to the horse, often causing him to make a mistake at critical times in the race. It's possibly no coincidence that a lot of his serious errors (Champion Chase apart) seem to occur at the last or second last, as it did today. I wouldn't write the horse off yet by a long chalk
Imo Kauto blew up which put his jumping under more and more pressure as the race unfolded.
I don't think he was race-fit for either of the last two outings
Point about Ruby's anxiety factor is interesting; but one thing is for sure - he likes to settle a horse and come into contention late on - and would have been *very* anxious about the tactics he was told to emnploy... and with reason!
I don't think he was race-fit for either of the last two outings
Point about Ruby's anxiety factor is interesting; but one thing is for sure - he likes to settle a horse and come into contention late on - and would have been *very* anxious about the tactics he was told to emnploy... and with reason!
EC1
On a break
Our Vic is a camel..he ain't suddenly pegasus..KS below his best for sure...how tf can OV outstay any decent horse over that trip???
yes I know its a flat track..but it's still a trip
how this race can be tied in to the GC is a complete mystery..they are two separate races.
Been to the well to often??
how do the ..Best Mate too few/ kid gloves...races crowd feel now?
KS is still a brilliant horse...he is NOT a machine as many "experts" hope.
yes I know its a flat track..but it's still a trip
how this race can be tied in to the GC is a complete mystery..they are two separate races.
Been to the well to often??
how do the ..Best Mate too few/ kid gloves...races crowd feel now?
KS is still a brilliant horse...he is NOT a machine as many "experts" hope.
granger
Senior Jockey
Talks of writing off Kauto are very very premature. Almost every Aintree a fancied horse that had a hard race at cheltenham gets turned over. Personally KG apart, I dont think they have had Kauto spot on all season. A mix of Order of merit and ego determined His run today. Given hindsight, his season should have been over post Cheltenham
betsmate
At the Start
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Nicholls/Smith know that Nicholls/Findlay gubbed them on Gold Cup day when an unfit Kauto Star underperformed. Nicholls/Findlay know this and will purposely avoid the superior Kauto Star from here on in, in a bid to maintain the myth.
This poses a problem for Nicholls/Smith as Kauto Star's legacy will always be tainted by the Denman defeat. There only option is to discredit that Gold Cup and hope that a future performance regains the Star his position at the top of the tree. The purpose of today was always to run Kauto Star to get beat.
Indeed some quarters believe that Our Vic was hand picked to be the one to beat him due to his inability to stay, as this would further drive home how far below-par the Star was. I don't know whether this agreement is in anyway beneficial for Nicholls/Johnson going forward?
Of course I figured all this out before the race and made squillions laying Kauto Star. Now that I am celebrating with a nice cold can of Diet Coke, I have one question for you...
Why are they running chasers in the flat season?
This poses a problem for Nicholls/Smith as Kauto Star's legacy will always be tainted by the Denman defeat. There only option is to discredit that Gold Cup and hope that a future performance regains the Star his position at the top of the tree. The purpose of today was always to run Kauto Star to get beat.
Indeed some quarters believe that Our Vic was hand picked to be the one to beat him due to his inability to stay, as this would further drive home how far below-par the Star was. I don't know whether this agreement is in anyway beneficial for Nicholls/Johnson going forward?
Of course I figured all this out before the race and made squillions laying Kauto Star. Now that I am celebrating with a nice cold can of Diet Coke, I have one question for you...
Why are they running chasers in the flat season?
Not sure I'd describe Our Vic as a camel. He's essentially capable of capitalising on an error which is what he did. Kauto was clear and extending when Walsh put him into the fence all wrong. I'm not sure that it's any more complicated than that. The clattering he gave it knocked the stuffing out of him, otherwise he'd have won by about 6L's.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I got the impression that Ruby was experimenting when he went upsides Our Vic with so long to go, maybe thinking if it works he`d try the same when he met Denman again.
Ultimately he just didn`t jump well and i believe that was Ruby`s doing more than anything else. The second last he asked him too early and that cost him the race like Warbs said.
Gawd!! How many times does it need saying! It wasn't Ruby's call - Nicholls decided the tactics and admitted he'd got it all wrong. They wanted to worry OV out of it as he hates being taken on. Maybe you weren't watching BBC but that was all made clear, inc that Ruby was v upset after the race at having had to do that
Jockeys aren't just told to go out and make it up as they go along, cetrtainly not at this level [or by this trainer]
I don't think that the extent of KS's Ascot injury was ever made public, nor the extent to which it has hampered his preparation for these two races. But nothing will now be clear until next season, so it's all speculation and hot air.
Jockeys aren't just told to go out and make it up as they go along, cetrtainly not at this level [or by this trainer]
I don't think that the extent of KS's Ascot injury was ever made public, nor the extent to which it has hampered his preparation for these two races. But nothing will now be clear until next season, so it's all speculation and hot air.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I was at work and only watched the race for the first time an hour or so ago. I did not know any of the tactics talk as i just recorded the race. Methinks Rub should have just ignored the advice if he was uneasy about it.
It wasn't the tactics that cost him the race though. That's just Nicholls being magnaminous. When they came to the second last Kauto had established superiority and was booked to win until Walsh put him into the fence all wrong, and cost them victory. That's got nothing to do with the tactics and everything to do with how Ruby presented the fence to the horse.
Unless of course you're seriously suggesting that Nicholls's instructions were to take on Our Vic, open a small lead going to the second last, stand well off it, take off from Wigan, land on top of it, knock the stuffing out of the horse, ensure that you lose all momentum, and then get pipped by a nose on the line.
The tactics might not have worked to the level that they wanted, but they still proved good enough until such time as Walsh took off from to far back. That's just a misjudgement by the jockey and nothing to do with the tactics or race strategy.
I just don't think Nicholls has attributed the cause and effect correctly. I wouldn't take everything that Paul Nicholls says as gospel, afterall what were his options? Slag off the jockey in public, (doesn't play well in the media) rubbish the horse (won't please the owner and he wouldn't believe it anyway), blame the ground (even though he's won on heavier). Under the circumstances he chose to blame himself and fall back on a conversation that probably took place, but ultimately didn't effect the result
Unless of course you're seriously suggesting that Nicholls's instructions were to take on Our Vic, open a small lead going to the second last, stand well off it, take off from Wigan, land on top of it, knock the stuffing out of the horse, ensure that you lose all momentum, and then get pipped by a nose on the line.
The tactics might not have worked to the level that they wanted, but they still proved good enough until such time as Walsh took off from to far back. That's just a misjudgement by the jockey and nothing to do with the tactics or race strategy.
I just don't think Nicholls has attributed the cause and effect correctly. I wouldn't take everything that Paul Nicholls says as gospel, afterall what were his options? Slag off the jockey in public, (doesn't play well in the media) rubbish the horse (won't please the owner and he wouldn't believe it anyway), blame the ground (even though he's won on heavier). Under the circumstances he chose to blame himself and fall back on a conversation that probably took place, but ultimately didn't effect the result
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
But he`s clouted fences like that before and still won. The tactics meant he didn`t have the petrol in the tank to ride those last or second last fence errors.
betsmate
At the Start
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Ok I have just watched the race for the first time (after reading all the comment on here and elsewhere) and I didn't have any financial interest.
In my opinion they really need to stop messing around with Kauto Star.
Prep him for a race, turn up when he is 100%, settle him, don't worry about the opposition and let him run his race.
They were dicking around there imho. Never let the horse find its rhythm, scrubbing along when the race didn't require it. The result was that it affected his jumping and meant the choke was out a long way from home.
The class of the horse got him as close as he did.
Where the fault lies with Ruby/Paul/The Injury is all subjective. The horse needs a break and treating properly now in my opinion.
In my opinion they really need to stop messing around with Kauto Star.
Prep him for a race, turn up when he is 100%, settle him, don't worry about the opposition and let him run his race.
They were dicking around there imho. Never let the horse find its rhythm, scrubbing along when the race didn't require it. The result was that it affected his jumping and meant the choke was out a long way from home.
The class of the horse got him as close as he did.
Where the fault lies with Ruby/Paul/The Injury is all subjective. The horse needs a break and treating properly now in my opinion.