Kauto Star Or Denman

Kauto or Debman

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Originally posted by Warbler@Mar 17 2008, 10:59 PM
Another vote for Denman I see :suspect: He might over take Kauto yet?
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Are people really still voting?


Heh.
 
I was out and about around Lambourn tonight and was 'reliably' informed [ie just hearsay, but usually good hearsay, from someone who was at Cheltenham last week in all the right 'places'] that Kauto was mostly swimming before the GC, since he was - allegedly - possibly still feeling his injury [believed to be to his foot], and not much being worked, in the run-up. Anyone close to the yard able to comment?

It seems to me that Kauto ran a 'top figure' while running well below par, as he was still feeling the effects of his injury. If you read all the post-race comments from connections, it's becoming tempting to read between the lines and to understand the regrets for having run him at Ascot

We can still only dream of the match that might have been. I wonder if we shall ever see it now
 
"I got a good laugh out of a quote from Coral's James Knight in Friday 7th Racing Post. Asked what he would be doing on the Friday evening after Cheltenham."

Would that gentleman be a poster on here?
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Mar 18 2008, 02:28 AM
I was out and about around Lambourn tonight and was 'reliably' informed [ie just hearsay, but usually good hearsay, from someone who was at Cheltenham last week in all the right 'places'] that Kauto was mostly swimming before the GC, since he was - allegedly - possibly still feeling his injury [believed to be to his foot], and not much being worked, in the run-up. Anyone close to the yard able to comment?

It seems to me that Kauto ran a 'top figure' while running well below par, as he was still feeling the effects of his injury. If you read all the post-race comments from connections, it's becoming tempting to read between the lines and to understand the regrets for having run him at Ascot

We can still only dream of the match that might have been. I wonder if we shall ever see it now
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Coincidentally, I've been re-reading teh Desert Orchid story lately and there's one chapter which mentions all not being well in the run-up to a big race but connections decided not to tell anybody.

I have a fair deal of sympathy for those who went in heavily on Kauto Star and who might not have got a true run for their money.
 
The information about the foot injury was there for people to take on board, DO.

Agreed they made light of it but an interrupted preparation isn't ideal and it should have been factored into a punter's calculations.
 
Originally posted by Colin Phillips@Mar 18 2008, 10:53 AM
The information about the foot injury was there for people to take on board, DO.

Agreed they made light of it but an interrupted preparation isn't ideal and it should have been factored into a punter's calculations.
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I agree, Colin, but the 'word' was that there wasn't a problem with the foot after all. I don't know enough about these matters but I'd imagine an interrupted prep would have been more likely to affect KS in the last mile rather than the first, which was when he wasn't really firing.

It was whatever other reason for him running below form that has me symathising with those who backed him.

My only bet in the race was Neptune Collonges (win at 40 and ew at 25/1).
 
Gareth, do YOU always take what connections say as gospel?

I don't see any reason for the Nicholls' yard fibbin' about it but any hint of a hold-up for a race such as the Gold Cup has to be considered.
 
do YOU always take what connections say as gospel?
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When they come out immediately to explain what happened and shortly afterwards say something like:

"He'd have had a couple of days off after his race anyway," stressed Nicholls, "so he's missed nothing.
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and they have a record of being open about their horses, then yeah, I believe them until such time as they give me a reason not to.

(I didn't back Kauto btw).
 
From TF top ten Chasers


182+ MASTER MINDED P F Nicholls
182 KAUTO STAR P F Nicholls
180+ DENMAN P F Nicholls
175 EXOTIC DANCER Jonjo O'Neill
170 NEPTUNE COLLONGES P F Nicholls



Looks like guys at Sleepy Hollow are not that impressed by the performances of Master Minded or Denman
 
Kauto Star looks to low to me based on some of his past performances. Master Minded deserves more surely...Denman about right but could be 1-2 higher at most.
 
Thanks Charlie.

I think Timeform had VPU and Neptunes C in the mid-160s before the Festival, so it's no surprise that their ratings are rather more sober.

Well done to them for being consistent.
 
Official handicapper has indeed rated them as he suggested:

Kauto Star 180
Neptune Collonges 178
Denman 185
Master Minded 186

What Denman produced on Friday is 5lbs better than anything Kauto Star has ever done. Give me a break, he has fallen for the hype- not of the horse Denman but of the whole build up to the race.
 
Gal

If you rated Denman 176, 180 , 182 or whatever for his Hennessey romp, you have to rate his GC romp higher , thats why TF have raised him from 176, Official handicapper has raised him and RP handicappers have raised him
 
Originally posted by Colin Phillips@Mar 18 2008, 07:06 AM
"I got a good laugh out of a quote from Coral's James Knight in Friday 7th Racing Post. Asked what he would be doing on the Friday evening after Cheltenham."

Would that gentleman be a poster on here?
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Yes, tdk has been talking up Denman's chances all year.
 
Originally posted by clivex@Mar 18 2008, 09:26 AM
KS cannot do anymore than he did...in a Gold Cup...no shame in running a top figure and getting beat.
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Except for jump better and travel better :rolleyes:
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you missed understanding the ...in a Gold Cup bit...Clive

yes he can jump better...but not when asked to do so round cheltenham at a very fast speed

thats why his GC winning days are done whilst Denman is the horse he is

you know..it is possible to just admit you are wrong about the outcome of a race..i too thought KS would win...but now I can see he can't do it in a GC with a horse like Denman in oppostion

the bit where Denman beat KS was when they ran downhill to teh 2nd last...KS could not go with him...and still jump accurately...that won't ever change.

as you said on the CH thread


get over it

and i still don't know what it means
 
Wrong yet again

If he can jump just fine round Sandown, with those tight fences, over 2m he can cope with GC pace jumping. His jumping was sticky from the off. its hardly as if he was run out of it in the last mile

I never expressed an opinion either way on this race and didnt have a bet. I am a big Denman fan and hes the best GC winner ive seen as far as im concerned (although Best Mates second win was a fine sight). I was alittle tempted at the final price on Denamn but wondered if the drift signalled something
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Mar 18 2008, 01:42 PM
Official handicapper has indeed rated them as he suggested:

Kauto Star 180
Neptune Collonges 178
Denman 185
Master Minded 186
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Phil Smith hasn`t got a fucking clue how to rate a top class chaser. How the hell did he get the job?
 
Originally posted by clivex@Mar 18 2008, 08:59 PM
Wrong yet again

If he can jump just fine round Sandown, with those tight fences, over 2m he can cope with GC pace jumping.
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It wasn`t just the pace, it was the course as well.

I honestly thought after Kaoto Star`s brilliant win at Kempton, his demolition job at Ascot and Denman`s awesome performance last week that someone would have the balls to rate one of them ahead of Desert Orchid. Instead we get the same cop out as last year and in Timeform`s case 2005.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@Mar 18 2008, 11:48 PM



I honestly thought after Kaoto Star`s brilliant win at Kempton, his demolition job at Ascot  and Denman`s awesome performance last week that someone would have the balls to rate one of them ahead of Desert Orchid. Instead we get the same cop out as last year and in Timeform`s case 2005.
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From what i gather Timeform use more sophisticated handicapping techniques than this, but it'll suffice

Using "Yardstick" handicapping and 1lb per length

Accoring to TF website

Our Vic 167
Racing demon 166




Kauto Star beats above horses 11 length at Kempton , so it's only worth a rating of 178, at Ascot Racing Demon is beaten just over 8 lengths, so it's only worth a rating of 174


Not sure if this is what rating he was prior to GC, but i'll use it anyway

Neptune Collognes 165

Denman beats Neptune Collognes by 16 lengths at Cheltenham, so it's only worth a rating of 181



As you can see from my simple "yardstick" example, neither horse has warranted a rating higher than Desert Orchids in Timeforms opinion and for TF to rate those winning horses higher, they would have to be of the opinion that the "yardstick" horses had improved on their previous ratings

You don't need balls, you don't need to cop out either, you just need common sense
 
Originally posted by "Charlie D"
Denman beats Neptune Collognes by 16 lengths at Cheltenham, so it's only worth a rating of 181
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I think you mean Halcon G, Charlie; I keep mixing them up in my head too. Point still stands though, I think they had both of them on 165 before the race.
 
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