Shadow Leader
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2003
- Messages
- 9,884
Contender for Post of 2008.....
Kauto Star Or Denman
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
What kind of retard rated this race?
179+
170
171+
I`d like someone to explain why the second is rated below the third, and also when someone is gonna have the balls to give Kauto Star a rating in excess of Desert Orchid, a rating he surely deserves.
EC1
On a break
it's clear that Denman is being given very large ratings for winning egg and spooners...thats no problem to me..because it's clear he will be meeting a horse about 10-15lbs superior when he goes h2h with KS...only one winner
i'm amazed that so many people have fallen under the Denman spell...hype is an amazing thing
there will be some very quiet people after the GC
i'm amazed that so many people have fallen under the Denman spell...hype is an amazing thing
there will be some very quiet people after the GC
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Nothing to do with hype. I think there is a genuine chance that over 3M2F in a race run at a decent pace KS may struggle up the hill. Imagine how easy an animal like One Man would have won yesterday.
EC1
On a break
Denman is hype imho...the win that most are basing his odds on is the hennessey...it's a handicap...many horses win those easily without being pegasus.
don't get me wrong...i'm pleased people are backing Denman..it's made the market for the winner.
One Man never won a GC...KS has...so I confused by the comparison
I don't really buy the slow run GC either...they still had to negotiate the hill at the end and KS won comfy...against stayers
does KS have to win at 3m5f to prove he stays?
don't get me wrong...i'm pleased people are backing Denman..it's made the market for the winner.
One Man never won a GC...KS has...so I confused by the comparison
I don't really buy the slow run GC either...they still had to negotiate the hill at the end and KS won comfy...against stayers
does KS have to win at 3m5f to prove he stays?
granger
Senior Jockey
Harry Findlay on next year...'"I think he's a certainty for next year's National if Paul Barber lets us go, which he looks up for,"
Anyone else find this a slightly odd choice
Anyone else find this a slightly odd choice
Not quite so much once you think it through?
Richest race in the calender
Doesn't jump to suggest he'll struggle
Seemingly stays for ever
Henessey to his name
and perhaps most importantly, the handicapper giving top weights every chance
Both owners are sportsmen of the old school, and where as certain trainers/ owners wouldn't have countenaced running in handicaps yet alone the national, these two don't really duck out of a challenge.
Alan Lee; Racing Correspondent
Jonjo O'Neill is hardly approaching Cheltenham with the form or confidence a trainer craves. Since an arid December, winners for his Cotswold yard have come at a mere trickle. Still, he dismisses talk of a cloud over the stable and, at Huntingdon yesterday, offered a shaft of hope to the belief that he can repeat the three Festival winners of a year ago.
Exotic Dancer, who has made a habit of chasing Kauto Star's shadow, has overcome slight injury and persistent racecourse rumours to resume rivalry in the Gold Cup three weeks hence.
Moreover, Black Jack Ketchum, once hailed a wonderhorse but more recently threatened with early retirement, will try to revitalise his Festival credentials at Fontwell on Sunday.
“Exotic is right back to his normal boisterous self, kicking the rails down around the yard,” O'Neill said. “I kept hearing there must be something more serious wrong with him but it was only ever a slight muscle pull. It was untimely but all he missed was two or three days' work. He's fresh and well and ready to run.”
Whether, this time, he can finish in front of Kauto Star is a different matter. O'Neill, endearingly frank, considers it unlikely. “He's probably our best hope at Cheltenham but there seems no obvious reason why he can beat the favourite,” he said.
“I think Kauto Star will beat Denman and I think he may turn out to be one of the best we've ever seen. He has fantastic gears and is the only horse around that could win a Champion Chase, a Ryanair or a Gold Cup. He's so good, he plays with his rivals. It's lovely to see him but I do hate him at times!”
Jonjo O'Neill is hardly approaching Cheltenham with the form or confidence a trainer craves. Since an arid December, winners for his Cotswold yard have come at a mere trickle. Still, he dismisses talk of a cloud over the stable and, at Huntingdon yesterday, offered a shaft of hope to the belief that he can repeat the three Festival winners of a year ago.
Exotic Dancer, who has made a habit of chasing Kauto Star's shadow, has overcome slight injury and persistent racecourse rumours to resume rivalry in the Gold Cup three weeks hence.
Moreover, Black Jack Ketchum, once hailed a wonderhorse but more recently threatened with early retirement, will try to revitalise his Festival credentials at Fontwell on Sunday.
“Exotic is right back to his normal boisterous self, kicking the rails down around the yard,” O'Neill said. “I kept hearing there must be something more serious wrong with him but it was only ever a slight muscle pull. It was untimely but all he missed was two or three days' work. He's fresh and well and ready to run.”
Whether, this time, he can finish in front of Kauto Star is a different matter. O'Neill, endearingly frank, considers it unlikely. “He's probably our best hope at Cheltenham but there seems no obvious reason why he can beat the favourite,” he said.
“I think Kauto Star will beat Denman and I think he may turn out to be one of the best we've ever seen. He has fantastic gears and is the only horse around that could win a Champion Chase, a Ryanair or a Gold Cup. He's so good, he plays with his rivals. It's lovely to see him but I do hate him at times!”
Jonjo’s wrong… Denman is a perfect Gold Cup type, Kauto Star isn’t. To my way of thinking Desert Orchid wasn't a Gold Cup horse either, but like Kauto was so good he managed to win one anyway. Kauto is every bit as good as DO (if not better), but is he as good as Denman (a perfect Gold Cup type) here? I strongly and definitely, with no second thoughts, think not. Denman is superior at Cheltenham. Elsewhere I wouldn’t be so sure.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I read your letter in the RP yesterday, Miller.
I expected nothing less from you.
I expected nothing less from you.
U
useful
Guest
Ollie Magern ran to an RPR of 163 in the Charlie Hall. The veteran Monkerhostin gave this a pretty solid feel when 3rd in the Boylesport.
Racing Demon and Monets Garden have RPRs of 170 apiece so Ollie Magern is still capable of running to within 7lbs of those two specialist 2.5 milers.
Ollie Magern finished 53 lengths adrift of Kauto Star in the King George and 89l behind Denman in the AON. Denman was cantering all up the straight at Newbury so how far would the distance have been if Thomas had ridden a strong finish on him? Although KS won the King George comfortably Walsh did not take it easy on him up the straight.
As I may have said before the GC is a no bet race for me as it is impossible to split the two Nicholls giants, although I think a very strong case can be made for Denman on the strength of his AON success – if you are having a bet you dismiss the AON win as an egg and spoon race at your peril imo.
I think someone also “dissed” Denman’s English Hennessey win – how does humping top weight to victory in the most fiercely competitive Handicap Chase of the year, off 161 (and joining an elite group of Mill House, Arkle, Trabolgan, & Burroughill Lad to carry 11-12 plus to victory) merit anything other than total respect?
I am not surprised Findlay has made noises about the National. Only L’Escargot and Golden Miller have managed to win both. Joining this club would be more exclusive than going for 3 Gold Cups (already done by 4 others). This would be real history making. And were they to try and become the first Gold Cup winner since Master Oats in 1995 to attempt Golden Miller’s 74 year old record of both in the same season we would be in dreamland………………
Owners like Findlay are what this sport needs more of.
(btw regarding concerns about Denman’s welfare at Aintree, I think he has the size and scope to tackle those fences comfortably. Since the modifications to the fences I think fatalities in that race are not dramatically more likely than on a park course with stiff fences such as Cheltenham).
Racing Demon and Monets Garden have RPRs of 170 apiece so Ollie Magern is still capable of running to within 7lbs of those two specialist 2.5 milers.
Ollie Magern finished 53 lengths adrift of Kauto Star in the King George and 89l behind Denman in the AON. Denman was cantering all up the straight at Newbury so how far would the distance have been if Thomas had ridden a strong finish on him? Although KS won the King George comfortably Walsh did not take it easy on him up the straight.
As I may have said before the GC is a no bet race for me as it is impossible to split the two Nicholls giants, although I think a very strong case can be made for Denman on the strength of his AON success – if you are having a bet you dismiss the AON win as an egg and spoon race at your peril imo.
I think someone also “dissed” Denman’s English Hennessey win – how does humping top weight to victory in the most fiercely competitive Handicap Chase of the year, off 161 (and joining an elite group of Mill House, Arkle, Trabolgan, & Burroughill Lad to carry 11-12 plus to victory) merit anything other than total respect?
I am not surprised Findlay has made noises about the National. Only L’Escargot and Golden Miller have managed to win both. Joining this club would be more exclusive than going for 3 Gold Cups (already done by 4 others). This would be real history making. And were they to try and become the first Gold Cup winner since Master Oats in 1995 to attempt Golden Miller’s 74 year old record of both in the same season we would be in dreamland………………
Owners like Findlay are what this sport needs more of.
(btw regarding concerns about Denman’s welfare at Aintree, I think he has the size and scope to tackle those fences comfortably. Since the modifications to the fences I think fatalities in that race are not dramatically more likely than on a park course with stiff fences such as Cheltenham).
EC1
On a break
I think someone also “dissed” Denman’s English Hennessey win – how does humping top weight to victory in the most fiercely competitive Handicap Chase of the year, off 161 (and joining an elite group of Mill House, Arkle, Trabolgan, & Burroughill Lad to carry 11-12 plus to victory) merit anything other than total respect?
I didn't "diss" the performance Useful..I said it was one of the main reasons the horse had so many people backing him to win the GC
I have no doubt that the henessey was a very good performance...the problem is that KS is not just a very good horse...he is an exceptional one.
of the 4 horses you mention that humped big weights to victory in the henessey...75% of them would not beat KS...so I can't see how Denman can be such a good thing to beat a horse like KS...in fact remove Arkle ...who was a freak...and the only 3 to hump that weight weren't good enough to beat KS...making the comparison in favour of a KS victory.
I didn't "diss" the performance Useful..I said it was one of the main reasons the horse had so many people backing him to win the GC
I have no doubt that the henessey was a very good performance...the problem is that KS is not just a very good horse...he is an exceptional one.
of the 4 horses you mention that humped big weights to victory in the henessey...75% of them would not beat KS...so I can't see how Denman can be such a good thing to beat a horse like KS...in fact remove Arkle ...who was a freak...and the only 3 to hump that weight weren't good enough to beat KS...making the comparison in favour of a KS victory.
I know Denman is a spectacular jumper, and could handle the National fences.
But most bad accidents in the Nastional happen for two main reasons:
- because horses are taken by surprise by the drop fences - esp if they go round the inner where the drops are steeper - and that is even more likely now than it was before, without the Haydock fences as a prep. They tend to overjump the fences anyway, and then tip up on the drops.
- and more pertinently, horse are brought down and can get badly injured in a melee - that is far more common in the GN than any other race, partly due to the size of the field coupled with the nature of the fences - horses and jockeys taking off over the drop fences can't see what's on the other side. It's the only race in which you regularly see several horses landing on one another.
That's why it's so dangerous, and I for one would hate to see Denman risked in the race til he has won a GC. There's plenty of time for him to take in a GN - 2010 would be about right! He's only raced what 15 times so after after all, to KS's 25. You need a well experienced horse for the National.
But most bad accidents in the Nastional happen for two main reasons:
- because horses are taken by surprise by the drop fences - esp if they go round the inner where the drops are steeper - and that is even more likely now than it was before, without the Haydock fences as a prep. They tend to overjump the fences anyway, and then tip up on the drops.
- and more pertinently, horse are brought down and can get badly injured in a melee - that is far more common in the GN than any other race, partly due to the size of the field coupled with the nature of the fences - horses and jockeys taking off over the drop fences can't see what's on the other side. It's the only race in which you regularly see several horses landing on one another.
That's why it's so dangerous, and I for one would hate to see Denman risked in the race til he has won a GC. There's plenty of time for him to take in a GN - 2010 would be about right! He's only raced what 15 times so after after all, to KS's 25. You need a well experienced horse for the National.
by Jon Lees
THE gloves came off for the Kauto Star v Denman showdown on Friday, when owners Clive Smith and Harry Findlay exchanged verbal blows over who will prevail in the heavyweight clash for the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup.
At an event that resembled a big fight weigh-in, neither man gave an inch as each advanced persuasive cases that their horse will win the contest.
Findlay, owner of Denman with Paul Barber, threw down the gauntlet by predicting Denman would "crush" Kauto Star, to which Smith retorted his horse would “quell this Denman upstart".
The sparring, hosted at Sandown by Betfair, marked the start of a publicity drive ahead of the most eagerly awaited racecourse clash for years.
Findlay, who dubbed the race as 'The Tank' versus 'The Maserati', admitted a debt to Kauto Star, on whom he has punted so profitably, but he believes there is a doubt about the champion staying the trip with Denman in the field.
“We know what is going to happen,” he said. “Denman is going to come down the hill, Kauto is going to come at us.
"If Kauto Star is on the bridle and he stays, he'll go past us. If it comes to a war we'll crush him. We'll break his heart.”
Responding to the “diatribe" from Findlay, Smith said: “I just don't take this at all. We can beat Denman. We will beat Denman. I know Denman is a relentless galloper. The races he won were the Hennessy and the Lexus.
"His times there were quite well over standard. If you look at Kauto's times, we are ten seconds better, and that's quite a long way to me. I frankly think we have a great chance to quell this Denman upstart.
"You should get your entry in for next year's Grand National now, Harry!"
Findlay is not paying too much attention to the weather forecast as Denman's clash with Kauto Star looms ever closer.
It has been well documented that Findlay believes Denman will expose any stamina doubts in Kauto Star's armoury should the ground come up testing at Prestbury Park on March 14, but the ever-confident owner does not believe that is the only way his charge can defeat the reigning champion.
The Paul Nicholls-trained eight-year-old is unbeaten in all eight of his starts over fences and as long as the ground is not lightning quick, Findlay thinks there will be no excuses.
He said: "The one thing we don't want is fast ground, but that isn't going to happen.
"The forecasters all seem to disagree about how much rain we are going to get. Whatever happens I don't think it will be heavy ground and our horse will handle whatever he gets. He has won on good but has looked useful in a bog.
"We do have everything else in our favour, so to want heavy ground to make it a real slog is unfair!"
Elsewhere on the track, Totesport unveiled their open top double decker ‘battle bus', with livery featuring giant photos of the two horses, which will tour England to raise public awareness of the clash.
Its first destination, following this weekend's two-day Sandown meeting, will be central London on Sunday.
THE gloves came off for the Kauto Star v Denman showdown on Friday, when owners Clive Smith and Harry Findlay exchanged verbal blows over who will prevail in the heavyweight clash for the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup.
At an event that resembled a big fight weigh-in, neither man gave an inch as each advanced persuasive cases that their horse will win the contest.
Findlay, owner of Denman with Paul Barber, threw down the gauntlet by predicting Denman would "crush" Kauto Star, to which Smith retorted his horse would “quell this Denman upstart".
The sparring, hosted at Sandown by Betfair, marked the start of a publicity drive ahead of the most eagerly awaited racecourse clash for years.
Findlay, who dubbed the race as 'The Tank' versus 'The Maserati', admitted a debt to Kauto Star, on whom he has punted so profitably, but he believes there is a doubt about the champion staying the trip with Denman in the field.
“We know what is going to happen,” he said. “Denman is going to come down the hill, Kauto is going to come at us.
"If Kauto Star is on the bridle and he stays, he'll go past us. If it comes to a war we'll crush him. We'll break his heart.”
Responding to the “diatribe" from Findlay, Smith said: “I just don't take this at all. We can beat Denman. We will beat Denman. I know Denman is a relentless galloper. The races he won were the Hennessy and the Lexus.
"His times there were quite well over standard. If you look at Kauto's times, we are ten seconds better, and that's quite a long way to me. I frankly think we have a great chance to quell this Denman upstart.
"You should get your entry in for next year's Grand National now, Harry!"
Findlay is not paying too much attention to the weather forecast as Denman's clash with Kauto Star looms ever closer.
It has been well documented that Findlay believes Denman will expose any stamina doubts in Kauto Star's armoury should the ground come up testing at Prestbury Park on March 14, but the ever-confident owner does not believe that is the only way his charge can defeat the reigning champion.
The Paul Nicholls-trained eight-year-old is unbeaten in all eight of his starts over fences and as long as the ground is not lightning quick, Findlay thinks there will be no excuses.
He said: "The one thing we don't want is fast ground, but that isn't going to happen.
"The forecasters all seem to disagree about how much rain we are going to get. Whatever happens I don't think it will be heavy ground and our horse will handle whatever he gets. He has won on good but has looked useful in a bog.
"We do have everything else in our favour, so to want heavy ground to make it a real slog is unfair!"
Elsewhere on the track, Totesport unveiled their open top double decker ‘battle bus', with livery featuring giant photos of the two horses, which will tour England to raise public awareness of the clash.
Its first destination, following this weekend's two-day Sandown meeting, will be central London on Sunday.
I'm a sad person - I keep ratings.
I strongly suspect that Denman is faster than he is given credit for. He makes it look harder work than it actually is because of his style of running. His massive stride takes him along at what appears to be a moderate pace but that other, good, horses find it difficult to lie up with for long. In some ways he reminds me of Carvill's Hill, except that he is much more amenable.
No doubt about it, Kauto Star is a serious horse. He has a high cruising speed and a killing turn of foot. Unfortunately, last year's CGC was very disappointing in terms of both spectacle and ratings as it was run at a very moderate pace (set by stablemate Neptune Collonges) for such a high-calibre race. I gave it the lowest rating since I started keeping them in 1994. With a rating of 78, which is a respectable handicap rating, it falls 3 points short of the average CGC rating of 81 over the last 13 years.
Another point to consider; why does Paul Nicholls keep adding Neptune Collonges' name whenever he is quizzed by the press about the "big two"?
I will fathom it out when I have done a bit more homework.
I strongly suspect that Denman is faster than he is given credit for. He makes it look harder work than it actually is because of his style of running. His massive stride takes him along at what appears to be a moderate pace but that other, good, horses find it difficult to lie up with for long. In some ways he reminds me of Carvill's Hill, except that he is much more amenable.
No doubt about it, Kauto Star is a serious horse. He has a high cruising speed and a killing turn of foot. Unfortunately, last year's CGC was very disappointing in terms of both spectacle and ratings as it was run at a very moderate pace (set by stablemate Neptune Collonges) for such a high-calibre race. I gave it the lowest rating since I started keeping them in 1994. With a rating of 78, which is a respectable handicap rating, it falls 3 points short of the average CGC rating of 81 over the last 13 years.
Another point to consider; why does Paul Nicholls keep adding Neptune Collonges' name whenever he is quizzed by the press about the "big two"?
I will fathom it out when I have done a bit more homework.
Whoops!
Thanks Gareth.
Couldn't see that bit because some whacking 6-footer got in front of me and hadn't set the recorder so couldn't see it at home!
Not pick up commentary either because he had a mouth as big as his frame.
As mentioned though, haven't done the homework on the race as yet, too busy trying to work out the Will Hill!
Thanks again.
Thanks Gareth.
Couldn't see that bit because some whacking 6-footer got in front of me and hadn't set the recorder so couldn't see it at home!
Not pick up commentary either because he had a mouth as big as his frame.
As mentioned though, haven't done the homework on the race as yet, too busy trying to work out the Will Hill!
Thanks again.
Tactically this race is going to be fascinating. Does Sam Thomas take it up immeadiately? If not when will he strike on...will Ruby respond immeadiately etc etc. Imagine the roar that is going to go up when Thomas strikes on...really signalling the race starting in earnest. I will imagine Ruby will play his hand quick enough in that he won't let Denman get any sort of lead while McCoy will just stalk stalk stalk on Exotic Dancer hoping the front two kill each other (so to speak).
granger
Senior Jockey
Nicholls was adamant that they wont slit each others throats
I am sure he is, it would clearly not be done on purpose. But Thomas will have to judge it to perfection because a horse like Exotic Dancer or another horse who will be out the back hoping to stay on to grab a place might well have the race run to suit him.