Kauto Star Or Denman

Kauto or Debman

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all horses stay in that they will eventually finish a race.

Some are strong stayers, some aren't, and every experienced race watcher knows the difference between a strong stayer at 3m and one who isnt. I dont know why the waters should be muddied on this. Its been obvious for years but I feel that lately some people are trying to over think this. Roselier's dont win sprints. Some sires are strong influences for stamina. Its not a figment of formbook imagnination.

Some horses finish their races strongly, often making ground over their rivals at the end of their races. Some horses are suited to stiff tracks, placing a premium on strength, guts, and stamina, rather than sharp tracks which emphasis turn of foot, speed, nimbleness. Some are seen to best effect when ground is heavier.

Those with stamina can arguably run at their fastest speed for longer than a horse with lesser stamina. Their highest speed might not be as high as a "speed horse", but the speed horse may not be able to maintain his highest speed for as long.

I dont really have an opinion on the KS/Denman debate. But what Kauto Star did at haydock in 2006 was run at what appeared to be a very high speed for a full two furlongs on a stiff track. Something very few are able to do.

I dont know why people cant accept the label "stayer" without over analysing it. Linford Christie would still beat me in a marathon.
 
you aren't following my train of thought SL...you can't seem to split basic speed figuring thinking from actually measuring how good a horse is using the clock...two different things...you just think speed figures...i don't. you seem to think i only use the clock...i don't.

no point continuing this particular point because you are generalising something which need not be dismissed so easily..i can't really explain my view any more clearly....we will see on the day
 
Does the fact that Ruby chose Kauto Star temper confidence for Denman supporters? Would probably have the best opinion on who will win the race.
 
Originally posted by Garney@Feb 12 2008, 09:36 AM
Does the fact that Ruby chose Kauto Star temper confidence for Denman supporters? Would probably have the best opinion on who will win the race.
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I'm still in the wait for the day camp, but I do believe unless it comes up very soft Kauto should have the class and speed to beat Denman.

This Kauto or Denman 'won't stay' argument is a nonsense. They both patently stay, it is simply about which one stays it better than the other.

With regards to Ruby chosing Kauto I think its irrelevant Garney. He would have found it impossible to jump off a fit and well Kauto considering their win last year, even if he is concerned that Denman could be a real threat. The truth is Ruby doesn't know either because he's only ever ridden one of them under the specific conditions. Denman supporters needn't be too concerned either given the horse is probably one of the most straightforward, uncomplicated rides you could have, and Sam Thomas despite being knocked in the past is a fine jockey who is full of confidence and right on top of his game.

There is one danger though and that is if Thomas goes too fast and tries to make it too much of a test for Ruby and Kauto. Ruby knows he can't give Denamn too much rope so he would have to track the pace and not sit too far back. If they did go too quick Exotic Dancer would be the one who could benefit. I'm sure Nicholls will be aware of this though and will have spoken to both jockeys about it.
 
This is better than the Azerty vs Moscow stuff a few years ago.

I am in the Kauto Star camp. But I will not be putting much money on the race.

My little boy is literally wetting himself with anticipation (at least that is why I think he is wetting himself).
 
if you remove times completely you are left using other horses...who you have no idea have run near to marks...as yardsticks.
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and equally some of those horses could have been running up to their best ever marks

In the 12 out of 13 races he has won, he has beaten enough reasonable horses (usually very easily) now to suggest that they all couldnt have been below form

Im still with KS for this race, but this is was awesome contender, whetehr he wears a watch or not
 
Interesting views, esp in view of the fact that most of us can't really make our minds up. I'm in the Kauto camp *provided* there is good ground - but only just. It's possible Ruby will let Denman get too far in front. It's possible the two them will set up the race for another horse eg ED, but I doubt that very much as I expect them to be well in front before the last, and I don't think anything else in the field has the class to reach them. The big worry is that Denman's stamina out front will put so much pressure on KS to lie up that he does UR or fall at last - but then I worried about that last year, needlessly.

The point SL is making and I've made it too in this thread, is that Denman has never had to go all out to win so we can only assume that he has a lot more in the tank than we have seen so far - and we know he won't be stopping up the hill. It's unreal, how easily he has won his races this season.

What bothers me is that riding tactics might spoil this 'match' and hand it to one or the other -
I really want to see them battle up the hill together, don't we all!


I also don't think ED is the same horse this year, but that's another matter
 
i can tell you that i was there every year that arkle ran.and backed him each time no mater what price he was .arkle looked the part i can tell you .so at the moment i have not made up my mind wich one i would go for this year.ruby might change his mind about who to ride
 
Linford Christie would still beat me in a marathon.
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Garney, If you are cleverly suggesting that Nicholls is giving help to KS, please retract immediately. Otherwise I'll see you in my Chambers.
 
Kauto - speed and style...

but Denman is class and reliability..

Denman for me, but in dramatic circumstances... me thinks.

AoB.
 
Originally posted by thoseweredays@Feb 12 2008, 12:45 PM
ruby might change his mind about who to ride
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Welcome to the forum twd

I don't think there is any question of 'Ruby changing his mind'. He had until before the Aon to make his mind up - if it wasn't made up for him! - and from that point Nicholls wanted whichever jockey was on for the GC, to also be on for the prep/previous race: that's whyn the decision was made so early

Personally I think Nicholls decided anyway, as Denman is arguably a more straightforward ride than Kauto, not that he is that difficult either... Denman however is almost an armchair ride - a safe jumper and resolute galloper. Also Sam T has now ridden him several times, they gel - and he's 'Sam's ride' I would say, for the forseeable.
 
The jockey booking is neither here nor there for me. It was obvious after Haydock who Ruby would ride, and Denman backers will have factored that in (I did anyway). Does Ruby get it right every time? No.

And I for one am happy over last years Grand Annual :suspect:
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Feb 12 2008, 11:55 PM


I don't think there is any question of 'Ruby changing his mind'. He had until before the Aon to make his mind up - if it wasn't made up for him!
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Ruby was always gonna pick KS, imagine what a fool he would look if he chose Denman and the former hacked up. It`s a bit like Pat Eddery having to choose Tenby even though Commander In Chief looked to be having all the momentum leading up to that Derby. If a jockey gets it wrong, he doesn`t look as bad if it`s the more obvious choice.
 
I'd guess Ruby would be on a percentage of the bonus as well. It was a no brainer and no reflection on what he thought would win. It could well turn out to be a "self fulfilling prophecy", the difference in ability between himself and Sam Thomas could well determine the outcome.

I have this vision of Denman going off at 7/2 on the day (not 10/3 or 4/1) and pissing it. I really want a good old fashioned National Hunt horse to win the best Gold Cup in my racing lifetime. The performance Carvill's Hill should have done.
 
I'd prefer the best horse to win. That's Kauto Star

However, I do fear an Azerty v Moscow 2004 Queen Mother situation.

Moscow clearly the better horse but perhaps more precocious. Azerty out in front galloping along....Moscow makes a silly mistake and that's it..Azerty resolutely keeps going to be the winner and everyone hails him the champ. And he deserved it that day, of course, but he was no Moscow.

He didn't have the gears that Moscow had. I would frame the Kauto v Denman thing in similar terms at the moment. I think Denman is resolute and a thorough stayer. But he is vulnerable to that special bit of class, that burst that Kauto Star has in addition to his stamina. So I hope that KS stays on his feet and I hope that he wins to prove his superiority as far as I can see it at this moment in time. Sometimes, we are searching for alternatives to the obvious.
 
I'll add my agreement to that.
Tactics are going to be very important, but God forbid they rob us of 'the race'
 
All the horses Denman has beaten Kauto Star would also have beaten so the situation is still the same! Kauto is still the best until proved otherwise.
 
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