Kauto Star

rorydelargy said:
You know Kauto Star is the horse with the big white face, don't you? ;)

While I admit that Kauto Star didn't jump as well as he could, he absolutely tanked along for over a circuit; it's only when Denman pressed on that he made his first mistake and Ruby didn't move a muscle at any point until jumping the open ditch directly opposite the stands on that final circuit. I've watched the race forty or fifty times as I still can't believe how Denman destroyed the field with that display of perfect jumping and strong galloping for that middle third of the race. Incidentally, Kauto Star did not drift to odds against in the in running market until mid way down the far side.

Bringing this back to the notion that the Nicholls camp knew Kauto Star wasn't right but ran him to be sporting, I would point to the market moves on the day. Denman had looked likely to challenge for favouritism in the morning of the race and one firm made them joint jollies, but the SP's (on one of the strongest possible racing markets) were 10/11 Kauto Star and 9/4 Denman. There is no way that Kauto Star's price would have hardened on the back of negative vibes, especially as such an influential punter as Harry Findlay would have been aware.

I can only imagine that this story has been misunderstood and is actually about the Nicholls duo who ran in the Champion Chase. In that instance, PN said it was impossible to split Twist Magic and Master Minded at home but rumours abounded that Twist Magic wasn't right and he ran a stinker after drifting significantly.
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It should be pointed out that when Denman made "his move", Kauto Star (winner of a Tingle Creek over 2 miles) could not just go with him but he could not go with Neptune Collonges either. At one stage it looked like NP would beat KS comfortably.

If Denman beat KS from the bottom of the hill I would accept it, but there is no way the move Denman made so far out should have had KS struggling so far out given the pace he has shown in the past.
 
Who is to say that Denman or Neptune Collonges wouldnt win the Tingle Creek from Voy Por Ustedes by an even easier 7l.

Well it was clear to me that things were not right with Kauto Star long before his first serious error. THe RP analysis says the 7th fence.

God bless the jumps.
 
rorydelargy said:
While I admit that Kauto Star didn't jump as well as he could, he absolutely tanked along for over a circuit
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Rory,
You really need to watch the race again, or rethink your approach to NH if you genuinely believe KS 'tanked along for over a circuit'.
 
I have no problem with the notion that Kauto Star wasn't at his very best in March, merely with how that panned out on the day and by what degree he underperformed. For the record, the first mistake KS made according to the RP was at the 13th, he merely gets a "not fluent" for the 7th, which is the 2nd open ditch. Whether he should have been struggling to keep up is a moot point, as is his ability to win a Tingle Creek sixteen months previously.
 
Whilst I remain convinced that Kauto Star ran well below form on the day (never jumped or travelled for me, and I think Ruby was kidding him along from about the fourth fence), I do feel that his defeat was due, in at least equal part, to his stamina being thoroughly tested by Denman's powerful display of galloping.

I've come to the conclusion that Kauto Star probably doesn't quite get home over 3m2f on a stiff track, in rain-softened ground, in a truly run race.
 
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I'm not completely happy with the lack of stamina argument for Kauto. He was a rallying second and pulling away from Neptune Collonges until belting the last. Much more a case of the horse simply not firing from an early stage, which was apprent by his sticky jumping. He's usually either fantastic or woeful, and I'd never seen a round of niggly errors luike he produced in the GC.
 
Grasshopper said:
If Kauto Star was out of sorts at Cheltenham and Aintree, he has done pretty well to finish 7L second to the best Gold Cup winner of the last umpteen years, and get nailed on the line by a horse who won the RyanAir Chase in his previous outing.

He is a country mile ahead of anything else that runs in the Nicholson, and will hack-up.
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fully agree! Nothing wrong with everything he did all season, and cannot see anything being wrong with his attitude. He made a serious blunder at Aintree and would have won otherwise, and was so game in defeat in Cheltenham after again not jumping that fluently. Luckily they are animals, and no machines; and I am really looking forward to see him in action again!!!
 
Andrew Hurley said:
Rory,
You really need to watch the race again, or rethink your approach to NH if you genuinely believe KS 'tanked along for over a circuit'.
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true. watched the race just yesterday as finally got round to watch the Review DVD, but he was never tanking at any time at Cheltenham. Just one of those days where he wasnt at his very best.
 
Andrew Hurley said:
Rory,
You really need to watch the race again, or rethink your approach to NH if you genuinely believe KS 'tanked along for over a circuit'.
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I've watched it five times today Andrew. Let me reiterate: I know Kauto Star wasn't at his best and perhaps he didn't give Ruby the feel he should on the first circuit, but the horse neither made a serious mistake nor left the bridle for a second on the opening lap of the race. Let me reiterate again: I'm not suggesting that those observations are of particular significance, other than to give the lie to the notion that he was obviously struggling from an early stage; that is a convenient reappraisal of the race which was simply not apparent at the time. My initial response was to the specific assertion that Kauto Star struggled to keep up with the gallop set by Neptune Collonges ~ I haven't even entered the "Denman is better/worse than Kauto Star" debate, and nor do I intend to.
 
davidjohnson said:
I'm not completely happy with the lack of stamina argument for Kauto.
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Can't say I'm 100% convinced myself, DJ - I'm just going with balance of probabilities, based on a combination of track characteristics, ground conditions on the day, and the resolute gallop set by Denman.

Change the circumstances, and stamina is a non-issue i.e. 2007 Gold Cup.
 
rorydelargy said:
I've watched it five times today Andrew. Let me reiterate: I know Kauto Star wasn't at his best and perhaps he didn't give Ruby the feel he should on the first circuit, but the horse neither made a serious mistake nor left the bridle for a second on the opening lap of the race.
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That's fair enough, rory, but there was a definite lack of fluency to KS's jumping the entire race. You could count on the fingers of one finger the number of fences Kauto Star pinged in the Gold Cup, whereas Denman met almost every one on a stride.

Kauto Star didn't need to make any serious mistakes to put himself at a distinct disadvantage, in comparison to Denman's superbly fluent round.
 
Grasshopper said:
Can't say I'm 100% convinced myself, DJ - I'm just going with balance of probabilities, based on a combination of track characteristics, ground conditions on the day, and the resolute gallop set by Denman.

Change the circumstances, and stamina is a non-issue i.e. 2007 Gold Cup.
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That is my feeling as well...and that is what I meant when I said earlier on that I would accept Denman's superiorty if he beat him off from the turn in.

At the top of the hill Kauto was struggling to keep up with Neptune Collonges, at the start of the turn in he was getting past him and then belted the last. Not the run of a horse that was beaten for stamina so early on.
 
Grasshopper said:
That's fair enough, rory, but there was a definite lack of fluency to KS's jumping the entire race. You could count on the fingers of one finger the number of fences Kauto Star pinged in the Gold Cup, whereas Denman met almost every one on a stride.

Kauto Star didn't need to make any serious mistakes to put himself at a distinct disadvantage, in comparison to Denman's superbly fluent round.
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Surprisingly, I agree Grassy, which is why I'm at pains to point out that my statements are not meant to be significant in explaining Denman's superiority. In essence I'm merely saying that the first circuit was not run at such a searching gallop that it put Kauto Star at any disadvantage. It was only when Denman took over that a lack of fluency from Kauto Star turned into a series of errors and an inability to maintain his position in relation to the winner. Does that make sense?
 
I am not privvy to any inside info re: racing so I think Headstrong needs to be taken on her word.

I do however agree with Grasshopper - whatever anyone says the horse ran a great race in defeat at Cheltenham (rumoured injury or otherwise) and at Aintree he lost the race at the 3rd last when he walked through it (from memory Walsh had two significant disagreements with that obstacle at the meeting - the other one aboard Master Minded).

Headstrong's info does shed new light on the events of last March, but at the time my view concirs with Shadow Leader - Denman set the sort of end to end gallop that none of Kauto's previous rivalls had been able to muster. As a consequence his already suspect jumping (he had been known to make some terrible blunders in races) was put under the greatest pressure yet, and he was less that fluent at some fences.

I think he has much a banker as you can have on Saturday and although the Listener will no doubt try to run the balls off Kauto, he is no Denman and I can see Ruby sitting with a double hand full approaching the last and coming away easily for a hard held success.
 
I think Kauto Star is very beatable on Saturday. He has been on the go a long time. I wouldnt bet heavily on The Listener scalping him, but I wouldnt be doing a mortgage job on KS either. The Listener ew at 5/1 looks the sensible sitting-on-the-fence option to me.
 
rorydelargy said:
Surprisingly, I agree Grassy, which is why I'm at pains to point out that my statements are not meant to be significant in explaining Denman's superiority. In essence I'm merely saying that the first circuit was not run at such a searching gallop that it put Kauto Star at any disadvantage. It was only when Denman took over that a lack of fluency from Kauto Star turned into a series of errors and an inability to maintain his position in relation to the winner. Does that make sense?
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Aye - makes sense. :cool:
 
That Kauto Star theory from last March is a joke.

And to pass it off as a fact!

Holy jaysus. Why would they punt the horse in to odds on if he was fucked?

Edit: Just read Rory's post. What he said re: their respective starting prices.
 
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I was considering going in for a thieving each-way bet on the Listener at Laddies 5/1 earlier in the week but reconsidered- he fell there last year and Down Royal's undulations may not entirely suit him. I find it hard to see beyond Kuato and if anything 1/2 doesn't look the worst price I've ever seen...
 
I notice Notre Pere is in the line up. With the Greenougue inmates clearly ready, Chiraaz having popped up at Galway in the week, the Conway owned gelding is going to be my e/w saver after a decent novice campaign last season included a place in the Irish National - the horse is a dour stayer and mudlark so could well be plugging on when others have cried enough. 50/1 looks terrific value.
 
Whether or not he wins on Saturday,he Denman et al had better be worried because it's nearly time for the second coming!!!


RACING NEWS
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Darkness - close to return.
DARKNESS ON THE COMEBACK TRAIL
By Tom Peacock, PA Sport
Darkness Profile

Forgotten horse Darkness is not far off from making a return to the racecourse after two and a half years away from the action.
Owned by Lady Lloyd-Webber and trained by Charlie Egerton, the chestnut was given an entry for the Hennessy Gold Cup Chase at Newbury next month.
He sustained a tendon injury around October 2006, having made his final start in the Scottish Grand National of the same year.
Darkness was pulled up that day but had travelled to Ayr on the back of a busy novice chasing season which saw him beat Iris's Gift in a Grade Two at Newbury.
He also won the Feltham Novices' Chase at Sandown before staying on to be third behind Star De Mohaison in the Royal & SunAlliance Chase.
"He's ready to run and will hopefully be out in the next couple of weeks," said Simon Marsh, the Lloyd-Webbers' racing manager.
"The horse is in great form - we're delighted to have him back but he has been off for two years and we'll have to see how he gets on before thinking about anything like the Hennessy."
 
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