Kentucky Derby

Thank Brisnet and Daily Racing Form Gareth imo :)

BTW, if your interested in say Commonwealth (Thousand Words running) or another race, and US style PP's seem a bit strange, you can get Racing Post style past performances for every track in US here http://www.brisnet.co.uk/cgi-bin/uk/index.html via a free introductory membership offer


Good to see ATR giving Bluegrass a bit of coverage on Racing News too
 
Cheers for those, Gareth and Charlie.

Looks a good trial tonight at Keeneland alright. To be honest, I reckon the front two look rock solid. Pyro has the ideal profile for a derby horse, but looks short enough tonight.

I fancy Cool Coal Man at 4/1. Quickened up nicely to beat Court Vision last time out and seems to be working very nicely. Keeneland seems to suit horses coming from off the pace and hopefully the likes of Cowboy Cal will ensure a decent gallop.

One other worth a mention is Miner's Claim. Big bull of a colt who reminds me of his sire (Mineshaft). This might come a bit soon for him though.
 
Pyro can probably run better than he's shown on his two starts this season, but i wouldn't want to backing him a current odds trackside


Big Truck interests me in Bluegrass, but i may just sit and enjoy race
 
After last years Bluegrass i wrote this on a forum

Mmm, just a question, with the Bluegrass being so close to the KD, was there not always a chance it would turn into a "work out" race?
Click to expand...



I think the Bluegrass may have been treated as a "work out" race this year by some too
 
Possibly Charlie, but Pyro was off the bit coming round the bend and just didn't pick up at all. The fact that they went so slow really spoiled it to a large degree for me.

How'd the Arkansas race turn out?
 
Didn't fancy him, but it's a shame


Colonel John becomes more interesting as days go by


Anyway, Lexington

Ignore Atoned's last run imo, no works to speak of and jockey switch suggested he wasn't going in Illnois Derby, so go by his run behind Big Truck, which imo is good enough to take this

Tomcito could be danger, his runs in his homeland look impressive, but are hard to judge and in Florida Derby he would have had to have been Curlin, Ghostzapper rolled into one to catch Big Brown after the carp start he had
 
Backed Cecil's more fancied one in Sefton, it runs carp, tuther wins, back Pletchers more fancied one, it runs carp, tuther wins


It's a funny ol game
 
Behindatthebar best runs have been on Artificial, Cowboy Cal is a turf horse, so who knows with him, but Monba has won at Churchill over a mile at 2
 
Interesting that Edgar Prado who won the Blue Grass on Momba has chosen to ride Adriano instead in the Derby.

John Velazquez, who rode Cowboy Cal in the Blue Grass, will again be aboard the colt in the Derby.

I think the top three would be Big Brown, Pyro and Colonel John.

The absense of War Pass will make the race interesting from a tactical point. Cowboy Cal should be on or close to the lead. He only had one run on the dirt so he is really unproven on the surface.
 
Behindatthebar will skip the race thereby letting Denis Of Cork in.

Apparently....Denis of Cork is named after the Rev. Denis Casey, who was born in County Cork, Ireland, and has been the director of pastoral care at St. Francis Hospital in Tulsa since 1988. Casey has shown the heart of a champion in his lifetime, doing tours of duty at the South Pole, where a mountain is named for him; and for 18 months in Vietnam during the war.

Denis of Cork could be a lively outsider. Has been training well.

Shaping up to be a great racing weekend on both sides of the Atlantic with the Kentucky Oaks kicking it off on Friday.
 
Interesting that connections of the favorite Big Brown chose to be on the wide outside. There is a long run to the first bend. He will be faily wide but he is not a horse they would want to drop in with his limited experience.


Post Position—Horse, Jockey, Trainer, Morning-Line Odds

1 Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux, Nick Zito, 20-1

2 Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa, Barclay Tagg, 15-1

3 Anak Nakal, Raphael Bejarano, Nick Zito, 30-1

4 Court Vision, Garrett Gomez, Bill Mott, 20-1

5 Eight Belles (f), Gabriel Saez, Larry Jones, 15-1

6 Z Fortune, Robby Albarado, Steve Asmussen, 30-1

7 Big Truck, Javier Catellano, Barclay Tagg, 50-1

8 Visionaire, Jose Lezcano, Michael Matz, 20-1

9 Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan, Steve Asmussen, 6-1

10 Colonel John, Corey Nakatani, Eoin Harty, 4-1

11 Z Humor, Rene Douglas, Bill Mott, 30-1

12 Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz, Bennie Stutts Jr., 20-1

13 Bob Jack Black, Rich Migliore, James Kasparoff, 20-1

14 Monba, Ramon Dominguez, Todd Pletcher, 15-1

15 Adriano, Edgar Prado, Graham Motion, 30-1

16 Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel, David Carroll, 20-1

17 Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 20-1

18 Recapturetheglory, E.T. Baird, Louie Roussel, 20-1

19 Gayego, Mike Smith, Paulo Lobo, 15-1

20 Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux, Rick Dutrow Jr., 3-1
 
Not good news for Colonel John, Coast Guard who finished a close 3rd in Santa Anita Derby got turned over tonight in a $53k Allowance race at Hollywood Park.


Colonel John needs to improve to have a shot in KD, but that result makes it tough to see him figuring tbh
 
I like the shape of this race from a punting perspective with Big Brown being drawn in the coffin box.3 of my favourite American jockeys Leparoux,Gomez and Coa are drawn close to the rail-I can see myself doing combination forecasts.
 
I was impressed by Colonel John's chances until I realised he's never run on dirt before.

Big Brown is drawn badly and may not quite get the trip.

Pyro's last effort was so terrible that the excuse of the a/w surface not suiting him is not enough to earn forgiveness.

Court Vision at around 10 or 12/1 appeals more. Good draw, sparkling dirt form and he's bred right.
 
It looks a really wide open renewal, whats more there was plenty of rain splashing about yesterday during the Oaks and the track was looking pretty wet. I believe it was due to be dry all day today though.
 
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