Kentucky Derby?

M

Miesque

At the Start
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What are your fancies?

aq6T5ojJ


Daddy Long Legs at the weekend - he ships tomorrow.
 
Saw the New York trial a few weeks ago and thought Gemologist was game which will do him no harm on Saturday.
 
Seemed to me that Daddy Long Legs didn't at all like the Dirt surface in last November's BC Juvenile, so I can't be having him at any price.
At the moment I'm keen on Todd Pletcher's Gemologist who I'm hoping might turn out to be something quite special.
 
A decent start might help; hopefully they'll stalls test him a few times before the race.
 
I like Union Rags and then Alpha, though neither won his last start. They'll both stay the distance I think which a lot of the others won't. Creative Cause should stay as well, but maybe he gave his best running (big speed figure) a couple of races ago when he beat the also highly fancied Bodemeister. The latter has run brilliantly since while CC disappointed slightly in his last.

Two Scat Daddys in the race, Daddy Nose Best as well as DDL. Not bad for his first crop. And he was top or second (not sure which) first season stallion in US last year.

If DDL is raced very prominently as he was in Dubai he might not get too much dirt in his face. But will he last home in this much tougher contest? Really think Union Rags at least will be charging down the stretch.

This is so different from our spring classics in that almost all the horses are already highly tried and usually have 2/3 runs in the winter/spring prior to the Derby, more especially in recent years with a hefty amount of graded stakes money required to get a run. I like the 10f distance, though having the Preakness at 9 1/2f as the second leg of the Triple Crown run 2/3 weeks later seems a bit of an historic anomaly.
 
I'm all over Dullahan - thought to be exceptional by connections - time will tell.


Distance should be no issue for Dullahan.
The Kentucky-bred colt is a half-brother to Mine That Bird, who rolled to a 6 ¾-length upset in the 2009 Kentucky Derby and also placed in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. And Dullahan is by Even the Score, a successful two-turn horse whose most accomplished offspring so far, Take the Points, captured the Secretariat Stakes at 1 ¼ miles.

A son of the prolific stallion Unbridled’s Song, who is the second leading active U.S. sire of Breeders’ Cup race winners, Even the Score is out of the Rahy mare Ashtabula, a two-turn stakes queen who also placed in a number of black-type events in the mid-1990s. Even the Score’s extended female family includes millionaire Formal Gold, winner of the Woodward and Donn Handicap in 1997.

Even the Score made his final 27 starts around two turns, earning $751,629 from a 29-9-1-9 career line, and his biggest career wins came in the Californian Stakes and Mervyn LeRoy Handicap in 2004. He stands at Millennium Farms near Lexington, Kentucky, and Dullahan is from his fourth crop.

Dullahan is out of the unraced Mining My Own, whose first foal, Mine That Bird, shipped in from New Mexico and captured the Kentucky Derby at 50-1. The 11-year-old broodmare is by Smart Strike, sire of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin as well as champions English Channel, Lookin at Lucky and My Miss Aurelia.

A Grade 1 winner, Smart Strike is by the great Mr. Prospector and out of the Smarten mare Classy ‘n Smart, which makes him a half-brother to U.S. champion three-year-old filly and Canadian Horse of the Year Dance Smartly, winner of the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Distaff. This is also the female family of champion Sky Classic and a number of other graded stakes winners.
Smart Strike is also the broodmare sire of last year’s 1 ¼-mile Queen’s Plate Stakes winner Inglorious; 2010 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Shared Account; and First Dude, who finished second in the Preakness and third in the Belmont Stakes and Travers at three and captured the last year’s 1 ¼-mile Hollywood Gold Cup.

Dullahan’s second maternal dam, the stakes-placed Aspenelle, was a two-turn specialist as well, and his female family is packed with stamina influences.

Dullahan displayed a fondness for turf and all-weather tracks at two and is slated to race only on grass and Polytrack this season before the Kentucky Derby, but the chestnut colt showed his versatility when finishing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.


Dale Romans
Trainer
Dale Romans grew up on the Churchill Downs backstretch learning his trade from longtime trainer and father Jerry Romans. The Louisville, Ky native just missed winning the 2010 Kentucky Derby when Paddy O’ Prado finished a game third. In 2011 he won his first Classic race when Shackleford captured The Preakness Stakes. He saddled Court Vision to an upset win in the Breeders Cup Turf Mile in 2011 and captured the Breeders Futurity with Dullahan. His other top runners include O'Prado Again, Sassy Image, First Dude, Kitten’s Joy, Tapitsfly, and Roses in May.
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Kent Desormeaux
Jockey
Like many other top jockeys, Desormeaux is a product of Louisiana and started his riding career at Evangeline Downs. He has won the Kentucky Derby on three occasions guiding Real Quiet in 1998, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, and Big Brown in 2008. Desormeaux was inducted into racing’s Hall of Fame in 2004 and has won the Eclipse Award for top jockey three times. Other top horses include Paddy O'Prado, Summer Bird, Dullahan, and C. S. Silk.
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Donegal Racing
Owner
Donegal Racing is a partnership that was formed in 2008 and is managed by Jerry Crawford who has been involved in horse ownership for over 30 years. The name refers to the Irish county of origin of the Donegal family and the racing silks as well as the names of the partnership horses reflect the Irish heritage. The group campaigned Paddy O’Prado who finished third in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. Along with Dullahan, Donegal Racing was represented by G-2 winner O’Prado Again in 2011.
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I'd be with Creative Cause of those towards the head of the betting - I don't think he was that disappointing LTO, he ran on strongly and was only beaten a nose when an odds-on favourite, he looks promising from a stamina point of view too having run on well LTO and his sire GC was a tough 10f horse and his dam being an Apple Blossom (G1, 9f) winner a few years back.

Creative Cause has a length to find with the favourite on BC Juvenile running back in November and was five lengths clear of Dullahan on that occasion. I doubt that Hansen will be able to run them off on the front end on Saturday night so that would rule the winner out and at 12/1 Creative Cause looks the best bet to my eye, will also be looking at a couple at bigger prices that look likely to see out the trip well.

Martin
 
Hansen for me, that's not gospel though, it's just becasue they told me I once played football like Alan Hansen and therefore I like the name...
 
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From the US website 'Bleacher Report'':
Whoever is cursed with the inside rail position in Wednesday's Kentucky Derby post position draw may as well drop out on the spot.
Given the 20-horse field, and the overwhelming amount of contenders this year, gaining ground in the 1 stall could prove to be nearly impossible.

Dullahan's jockey,*Kent*Desormeaux, said before the post position draw, "The 1 stall is almost inside the turn. You have to make a right to get out of there.*
The positioning for the 1 hole is, you’re already getting shut out. I like to be able to float to my spot on my own".

There are 20 runners in Saturday's race. *Only one is trained outside America, Aidan O'Brien's Daddy Long Legs. *
Guess where he was drawn. . . . .
 
Perhaps they're being ironic because Aiden's horses always seem to get 'drawn' in the preferred one box in Leopardstown...

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Could someone put the field up here and the draws please, couldn't find anything about draw on the american websites, but then I am still half asleep.

Also, what time should i tune in to ATR on Saturday night to watch this great race?

Thanks.
 
Marble said:
Could someone put the field up here and the draws please, couldn't find anything about draw on the american websites, but then I am still half asleep.

Also, what time should i tune in to ATR on Saturday night to watch this great race?

Thanks.
Click to expand...

1. Daddy Long Legs, Colm O’Donoghue, 30-1
2. Optimizer, Jon Court, 50-1
3. Take Charge Indy, Calvin Borel, 15-1
4. Union Rags, Julien Leparoux, 9-2
5. Dullahan, Kent Desormeaux, 8-1
6. Bodemeister, Mike Smith, 4-1
7. Rousing Sermon, Jose Lezcano, 50-1
8. Creative Cause, Joel Rosario, 12-1
9. Trinniberg, Willie Martinez, 50-1
10. Daddy Knows Best, Garrett Gomez, 15-1
11. Alpha, Rajiv Maragh, 15-1
12. Prospective, Luis Contreras, 30-1
13. Went the Day Well, John Velazquez, 20-1
14. Hansen, Ramon Dominguez, 10-1
15. Gemologist, Javier Castellano, 6-1
16. El Padrino, Rafael Bejarano, 20-1
17. Done Talking, Sheldon Russell, 50-1
18. Sabercat, Corey Nakatani, 30-1
19. I’ll Have Another, Martin Gutierrez, 12-1
20. Liaison, Martin Garcia, 50-1

Pretty sure ATR is not showing due to licensing issues. RUK will be on with the NBC broadcast and studio analysis with Willow, McNae and the incomparable Dave Gutfreund.
 
Holy shitcakes, I think he's trying to tell us something, Batman, can you work it out?
 
A lot of raw data to digest (for those so inclined), of varying significance. Not that reader-friendly though I'd agree.
 
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