Kentucky Derby

Post -Draw revised Morning Line (Mike Battaglia) has been released.
Nyquist put in at 3/1.


1. Trojan Nation (126) Gryder/Gallagher 50-1
2. Suddenbreakingnews (126) Quinonez/Von Hemel 20-1
3. Creator (126) Santana Jr./Asmussen 10-1
4. Mo Tom (126) Lanerie/Amoss 20-1
5. Gun Runner (126) Geroux/Asmussen 10-1
6. My Man Sam (126) Ortiz Jr./Brown 20-1
7. Oscar Nominated (126) Leparoux/Maker 50-1
8. Lani (126) Take/Matsunaga 30-1
9. Destin (126) Castellano/Pletcher 15-1
10. Whitmore (126) Espinoza/Moquett 20-1
11. Exaggerator (126) Desormeaux/Desormeaux 8-1
12. Tom’s Ready (126) Hernandez Jr./Stewart 30-1
13. Nyquist (126) Gutierrez/O’Neill 3-1
14. Mohaymen (126) Alvarado/McLaughlin 10-1
15. Outwork (126) Velazquez/Pletcher 15-1
16. Shagaf (126) Rosario/Brown 20-1
17. Mor Spirit (126) Stevens/Baffert 12-1
18. Majesto (126) Jaramillo/Delgado 30-1
19. Brody’s Cause (126) Saez/Romans 12-1
20. Danzing Candy (126) Smith/Sise 15-1
 
Like Outwork in this, ground on hard the last day and should be more to come as long as he doesn't get in a speed duel up front.
 
10 mins to the Off, looking at the American Tote I notice ..........
Exaggerator down to 5/1. I had him at 4/1 on my tissue (post #48). So Ladbrokes still holding at 8/1 is out of line. Will have a bet at that for value's sake.
Nyquist. Into 2/1 now (Tote). Ridiculous odds -- can't have him at all particularly when 17 of the other 20 runners each have career-best Bris speed figure within two points of him. 2/1 just crazy in a wide-open year.
Dancing Candy drawn 20 but a early speed horse who might make the first turn in front is heading towards a fair price at 25/1.
Mo Tom. Gone off this one due to draw (4).

Exaggerator it is then for an E/W play for me.
Good luck all. :)
 
wilsonl said:
I was impressed with the favourite at the BC and it was hard not be even more so with the way he toyed with the field (including Saturday's 3rd fav Mohaymen) in Florida on his reappearance. 13 is a nice draw so I've taken the 4/1 this morning, albeit to restricted stakes :mad:
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Well done, Wilson !
 
Euronymous said:
Shite ride on the second.
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I think that's a bit harsh on Desormeaux. Exaggerator had to be checked once or twice in the earlier stages due to traffic. Desormeaux then had to change whip hands at the turn into the final straight as the horse was veering.
Exaggerator certainly was gaining hand-over-fist in the last 1/16, but never had a shot at overcoming Nyquist I believe.
The best horse won on the day; mine was second. That's the bottom line; I just have to suck it up. :)
 
JamesRB said:
winner did it nicely after sitting on a strong pace the whole way round
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Yes. Tho' he seems to just win all his races to date by small margins, you have to wonder now if he has more in the tank -- that maybe there's a reserve that could be used if needed.
His clock last night is impressive -- 2:01.31. American Pharoah's Kentucky last year was 2:03.02

What's to like about Nyquist is that he seems to be very adaptable to any way a race is run.
I'm becoming a believer. :)
 
Winner has done it well. A bit much can be made of closing finishers but the 2nd has run a smashing race. You do get the impression he could have made it interesting under different circumstances.
 
Preakness Stakes (2nd leg of the Triple Crown) next Saturday at Pimlico.

Nyquist at 1.80 across the board seems pretty high to me; I had him as a 1/2 shot -- maybe even 2/5. Fairly certain he will shorten come the day.
Exaggerator at an average price of 5.0 will surely find this 1/16th shorter trip too taxing, no?
One I've been tracking for a couple of months is Bob Baffert's "Collected" -- winner of the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland over the Preakness 1 1/16 trip in 1:43 -- that is widely varied in price from Ladbrokes 13.0 to Skybets 26.0. Collected did a nice solo work-out over 7F on Thursday at Churchill in decent time. This one could well be my E/W longshot bet on the day.
Next point of reckoning will be Wednesday's draw which should ease somewhat the making of a selection.:)
 
A nice draw for Nyquist; an anyway decent break will see him in a healthy racing position. Doug O'Neill seems happy enough with it anyway.
Dunno if Todd Pletcher will feel the same regarding Stradivari's outside box. He''ll need to break fast -- no margin for a nanosecond's hesitancy in this stall.
Exaggerator's #5 seems okay for his style of running a race -- will be sitting back and be a closer over this distance.
Would have preferred something other than #7 for Collected, but it's a relatively small field so not a major concern.

 
Have gone for Abiding Star E/W at 50/1 as my only bet tonight. Purely on breeding.
Abiding Star is certainly below the standard of class expected for a race such as the Preakness -- doing most of his running at lower grade tracks. But the rain all day in Baltimore makes this a sloppy surface which will suit him to a tee; his pedigree is jam-packed with mudlark influences and two races back he put up an excellent time figure at Parx in a mudbath. The going will suit Exaggerator also but but I'm not willing to take the low odds of 3/1. I don't think Nyquist will be hugely inconvenienced by the rainfall either -- people forget that there was heavy rain before the Kentucky Derby even accepting that the official going was fast.
But it is Abiding for me at a decent price in the vague hope of maybe a return. It's a bit too much to expect an outright win when betting a 50/1 shot. :)
 
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There is no more sight as visually ugly in sport than a wet dirt track race in what looks like an American suburban industrial estate. Give me a Friday night at Kilbeggan or Ballinrobe over the Preakness any day of the week. Horrible sight.
 
Frankel said:
Not a great ride on Nyquist clearly.
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Why? I'm guessing that you say that because maybe Nyquist shouldn't have been battling up front for the entire race -- that he should have been dropped off the pace until later?
This is just a personal opinion of mine -- I haven't come across any reason given by the jockey post-race -- but maybe he (Gutierrez) wanted to be in front to avoid the dreadful kickback on that sloppy surface?
 
icebreaker said:
Why? I'm guessing that you say that because maybe Nyquist shouldn't have been battling up front for the entire race -- that he should have been dropped off the pace until later?
This is just a personal opinion of mine -- I haven't come across any reason given by the jockey post-race -- but maybe he (Gutierrez) wanted to be in front to avoid the dreadful kickback on that sloppy surface?
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Was no need to be up there the whole way. Ended up pretty wide on the track also compared to the winner.
This also knowing the winner would be gunning for him up the straight with the way he's ridden.
I just think he thought he couldn't get beat regardless.

I give huge credit to the winner and thought he had very good chance to turn over the favourite regardless. His job was made easier though with what went on up front.
 
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Not sure if Kent Desormeaux will be riding Exaggerator in the Belmont on Saturday, seeing as he checked into rehab clinic in Utah overnight for alcohol abuse treatment.
"It is time to take a sober look at my life and take this step", says he.
Quite a few times now he's failed breathalyzer tests at various tracks ........... latest one at Del Mar.

Get it together, Kent.
 
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