Kentucky Derby

Delighted to see it but what were the other jockeys at ?
Maybe they had not the goods under them but they usually make the fav earn it at least.
Awesome horse through and through I have to say.
Really enjoyed Racing UK for coverage and analysis.
 
Was watching coverage on the two channels -Chapman is a fantastic broadcaster- preferred ATR coverage RUK pictures.
 
Hard not to disagree with some of the statements on the racing post about AP's stud fee.
First of all, let's see what the horse does til the end of the season and how his form reads then.
Regarding comparisons with Frankel or Sea the stars fees, that is a non-sense. Some breeders using him wouldn't even know how much STS stands for. It is other market whatsoever. Are you telling me Golden Horn's fee would be determined by Californe Chrome's fee?....
Regarding his price being set up depending on how much Coolmore paid for him, well that's funny....because obviously Coolmore only want to get his money back and don't wish to squeeze the lemon as much as they possibly can...
And finally, even if he beats his elders in the BC, 250k for a first crop sire seems way too much money to me.
 
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Value divided by 1000 seems to be the equation at the minute.
Surely a $100m plus horse as he stands given the hype and publicity of Triple Crown win.
Coolmore have doubled their money already; is that enough ?
 
The small print was that the price would increase if the horse wins the TC.
Your numbers seems right edgt. Hard to see him standing for more than 100k.
He will keep running as Coolmore only has bought the breeding rights, so his fee could increase if he beats his elders in the BC, but I wouldn't pay much more than that....
The older horses don't look a very strong division this year, so he might have a good rest of the year.
I would rest him now and aim for the JC Gold Cup and BC.
Honor Code looks a really nice horse too. Looking forward to seeing those two running together in the future.
 
A reasonable amount of time has now passed, I think, for there to be a review of Pharoah's performance.

His official time of 2:26:65 at Belmont makes him one of a very select few who have busted 2:27 for the track's 1 1/2 miles.
It also makes him the second fastest Triple Crown winner at Belmont ever -- second only to the freakish Secretariat.

His fractions are also quite astounding.
24.06
24.77
24.58
24.58
24.34
24.32
He goes faster as the race gets longer (most unusual for an American horse on dirt). And his final 2furlong sectional is quite possibly the fastest ever achieved at Belmont. (I'm not 100% certain on this -- just going according to my own mental records).
All of this without being put under real pressure during the race.

No doubt about it, this hoss is no fake. He is entitled to be talked of as a "Great". Coolmore know a good one when they see it.:)
 
The Pharoah has been declared for the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Saturday following a pleasing work-out at Del Mar.
Draw to be made tomorrow.

Only one ever previous Triple Crown winner has managed to win the Travers -- Whirlaway back in 1941.
After a long and hard season, can American Pharoah add this prize to his C.V. ? I hope so, and I'll be keeping the faith. :)
 
Flintshire also due to line up in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga on same card. Looking for quick ground and may not line up in the Breeders Cup according to Grimthorpe owing to likely softer conditions. He's been disappointing so far this year, was really expecting him to be a top older horse. He might find something to overturn him in the American's back yard.
 
Realistically, this years Travers is not a betting race as it stands.
I believe Pharoah will win, but I'm not backing him at 1/5.
Texas Red to Place will likely be my play, tho' I guess I'll be lucky to get Evens about that.
 
On Betfair at a multiple of over five times his Morning Line price ( 65/1 as against ML 12/1), Keen Ice must present some value. He is a closer but may find himself too far back to make that count, and anyway Pharoah is impossible to oppose even considering he has never run at the track.
Any value about Texas Red is now gone. !.70 to Place is no good at all.
Bah. Looks like no bet for me tonight.
 
There was an incredible weakness in the Texas Red place price just before the off-fairly sure he beat an undercooked Frosted last time out.
 
Sad to see AP beaten but he's had a lot of racing at the highest level - 7 races in 6 months and all that travelling. It has to take it out of them. Had his jockey not chosen to retaliate against the Godolphin horse and just hooked back instead of going hammer & tongs for a furlong round the bend, he may have saved enough to pull out and repel the late finisher. Sad but he's still a Triple Crown winner and many of the greats have been beaten in the Travers (Man O'War, Secretariat)
 
I was a layer last night but you have to love the way he battled despite being softened up in a serious pace duel with Frosted.8 weeks to get him ready for the Breeders Cup-it can be done.
 
It is one of the few times he got rattled for lead even though the fractions were nothing out of the ordinary.
Baldeagle's son was present and said AP got very worked up in the preliminaries so maybe it was a race too many.

in any event what about Flintshire ?
Every quarter mile split for the last mile was faster than the previous one with a final quarter in 22 and change and a final 2m 23.77sec.
A wow performance by any standards; great to witness.
 
Another year; another Kentucky Derby and beginning of the Triple Crown road.
Saturday, 7th May.

The current candidates appear a little inferior to last year's crop of 3-y-olds.
This 142nd renewal seems somewhat more wide-open than usual. A case could be made for maybe 8 or 10 of the runners.

Nyquist: Seven from seven with a 1:49.11 win over 9f in the Florida Derby lto. Current 4/1 fav ( Skybet standing out @ 5/1) but is definitely beatable, imo. Will shorten to perhaps 3/1 on pari mutuel on the day.
Exaggerator: Winner of the Santa Anita Derby three weeks ago. I like him. I estimate his chance of winning at around 20% (4/1) so his present 8/1 (Bet365) seems high to me. G
Gun Runner: Winner of the Lousiana Derby. No La winner has yet gone on to win the Kentucky. And, trained by Steve Asmussen -- the worst medication violator in U.S. racing ( standards and testing will be stringent in this). So, Gun Runner a no consideration for me. (So also Creator tossed out for the same reason -- same trainer).
Lani: Japanese winner of the UAE Derby. Not sure if that was a great quality race -- clock was slow --and I harbour doubts about his willingness for a fight. Seems to be a bit of an awkward mulish animal ............... "Lani is not a horse with a temperament willing to run always. I can't tell you if he'll want to run on Derby Day or not" -- Yutaka Take.
Mohaymen: Classy sort, but ran a stinker in the Florida behind Nyquist. Backing it has to be a leap of faith that that run was a once-off aberration. Not for me; not willing to take that chance.
Destin: Son of Giant's Causeway; winner of the Tampa Bay Derby -- but that is just a Gr2 stakes. I'm open to further consideration about this fella; not sure yet. Might be a pick for a frame place. Just don't now yet.
Mo Tom: This will be my trading play. Too big at 25/1, surely will be half that on the day.

Odds: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/kentucky-derby/winner
Form: bit.ly/1Xu38Ae.


Plenty of other runners. Time yet for further mulling over, and probably will be a change of mind in the coming days. :)

Any views?
 
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Draw for gate positions made in the past 30 mins (22:30 GMT).

1 Trojan Nation
2 Suddenbreakingnews
3 Creator
4 Mo Tom
5 Gun Runner
6 My Man Sam
7 Oscar Nominated
8 Lani
9 Destin
10 Whitmore
11 Exaggerator
12 Tom's Ready
13 Nyquist
14 Mohaymen
15 Outwork
16 Shagaf
17 Mor Spirit
18 Majesto
19 Brody's Cause
20 Danzing Candy

Revised Morning Line not yet published.
 
I was impressed with the favourite at the BC and it was hard not be even more so with the way he toyed with the field (including Saturday's 3rd fav Mohaymen) in Florida on his reappearance. 13 is a nice draw so I've taken the 4/1 this morning, albeit to restricted stakes :mad:
 
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