Kerry Nash

moehat said:
Oh dear; cyclamen if flowering, the geese are flying overhead on a daily basis, the nights are drawing in and now it's the Kerry National. Which means summer is well and truly over. But, then again, the proper racing is about to start!
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Stable tours imminent and weekends delight. What a time to be alive
 
pdleech said:
I totally agree. I hope Bay of Freedom gets in (we need eight to come out) as the ground looks like being soft and he likes the track and might just surprise a few people (including me). Half of the others either don't fully stay 3 miles or, if they do, have shown their best form on faster ground; Coneygree will be best suited by both distance and ground (although horses either love or hate the soft/heavy ground at Listowel).
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Are you confident about probable soft going? Coneygree could well be a good thing but its really tempting to go for something e/w with a low weight. Shanpallas has some previous placed form in this event from three years ago off a similar mark. He ran well enough at Galway lto when 7/22. I think he could be a sound each way bet with 10 stone for this.
 
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Marble said:
Are you confident about probable soft going? Coneygree could well be a good thing but its really tempting to go for something e/w with a low weight. Shanpallas has some previous placed form in this event from three years ago off a similar mark. He ran well enough at Galway lto when 7/22. I think he could be a sound each way bet with 10 stone for this.
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It's Soft, Heavy in places at the moment. It's been fairly dry today but there is quite a bit of rain forecast over the next days and it will be enough to keep the ground at least soft and , probably, heavy. The ground will be very testing and many horses will just not act on it. Shanpallas ran well but on much better ground and , like several others, will struggle to show his best perform on the likely surface. I see that Robbie Power is talking up Sandymount Duke on the Bet365 site; for me, given the likely going and the fact Coneygree will win the front running battle, he would be the biggest lay of the race. Honestly, Coneygree is rated 4/5 pounds below his best form and most others are rated 4/5 pounds better than their best form - if he goes on the ground (and he has more chance than most) he should win this well and 7/2 would be a great price.
 
Bonjers said:
7/2 with Hills.
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Yep, they opened 5/1 too, so I heard.

It seems I was looking at the forfeit-date (7th September) rather than the actual race-date (13th September), which prompted my haste to have a bet. Need to start wearing the new goggles more often, I reckon.

FWIW, I went in again with Hills at 4/1.
 
pdleech said:
It's Soft, Heavy in places at the moment. It's been fairly dry today but there is quite a bit of rain forecast over the next days and it will be enough to keep the ground at least soft and , probably, heavy. The ground will be very testing and many horses will just not act on it. Shanpallas ran well but on much better ground and , like several others, will struggle to show his best perform on the likely surface. I see that Robbie Power is talking up Sandymount Duke on the Bet365 site; for me, given the likely going and the fact Coneygree will win the front running battle, he would be the biggest lay of the race. Honestly, Coneygree is rated 4/5 pounds below his best form and most others are rated 4/5 pounds better than their best form - if he goes on the ground (and he has more chance than most) he should win this well and 7/2 would be a great price.
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Thanks for the heads up. On reflection I think your right. Looks like he'll get his ground. I hope he wins.
 
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Irish Field is quoting Mark Bradstock as saying that Coneygree won't travel if the ground is too heavy. He will be speaking to the Clerk tomorrow morning and then decide (he is due to travel Sunday). It was still Soft, Heavy in places this morning but (according to Accuweather) Listowel has had the best part of half an inch of rain today so, if true, it's likely to be heavy tomorrow. The forecast doesn't get much better until Thursday - it's going to be really testing!
 
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This meant only one thing to me and sure enough Coneygree ruled out today


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Taken another look at this race. Not sure if he's been mentioned thus far, but Viva Steve looks like a potentially well handicapped horse, after leaving Mick Channons for Fergal O Brien's. His record first-time-out is first class too, (2211). He's shortened up with all the firms, now a best priced 16/1 with Ladbrokes & Corals. He gets my vote, although I wish PD all the best with his horse, Bay Of Freedom.
 
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Yep. They could go up more depending on the other highly weighted horses participation. I've nailed my allegiance to Viva Steve down now, but will have a saver on Shanpallas too.
 
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edgt said:
Not a betting proposition unless animal is by Westerner going on results today.
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I'm not sure about this, Ed. This race has been good to me once or twice, (admittedly I'm thinking back as far as Ponmeoth at this point!).

My fancy Viva Steve is by a sire that had a preference for soft, (Flemensfirth).

The grandsire Unfuwain, also won on soft.

He's not bombproof on the ground by any means, his soft/heavy ground form is the same as most of his other form, patchy and inconsistent, (with the odds spark of genius), but from looking at the breeding, Viva Steve is more likely to handle a mudfest than a few others on Wednesday I reckon.
 
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To give you an idea of conditions today, the very decent 2yo Warm The Voice won the 8f nursery in 1:59.81, which is closer to a 10f time than a mile. They were right to pull Coneygree and when looking for the winner of the race I would look for a plausible candidate at the bottom of the weights.
 
Not in the Kerry Nash but Alto Esqua of Charles Byrnes runs in the beginners chase today - he struck me as one that has a bit of talent last season - given who his connections are who knows what they have lined up for him but he was bought with chasing in mind
 
Having done my stones ante-post on Coneygree, and given the state of the ground, I've settled on Jarob (33/1) each-way. He will get a run regardless off a feather-weight, has some (not particularly good) form on Soft/Heavy, and he should stay.....which is more than can be said for the majority of them left in.

That said, I fully expect to retain my useless record in this race.
 
granger said:
Not in the Kerry Nash but Alto Esqua of Charles Byrnes runs in the beginners chase today - he struck me as one that has a bit of talent last season - given who his connections are who knows what they have lined up for him but he was bought with chasing in mind
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Nice spot, PJ. Should be well-suited by the ground too.

have taken 5's on Betfair Sportsbook - as low as 5/2 in places
 
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