King George 2009

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At the Start
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William Hills:

Conduit 3/1
Tartan Bearer 5/1
RVW 5/1
Youmzain 7/1
Look Here 8/1
Casual Conquest 8/1
Golden Sword 10/1
Yeats 10/1
Cima De Triomphe 12/1
Duncan 14/1
16/1 Bar
 
RVW underpriced (yet again). What price Fame And Glory if he turned up?

Duncan is vastly overpriced - more like a 9/1 shot given he got no room at Epsom and still beaten just a length.

Look Here underpriced again - more excuses than British bankers (similarly Youmzain).
 
KG isn't the race it was though DO..Cima could be better than today when getting 12f

Look Here gets her trip this time..I'll dutch her with Cima
 
KG isn't the race it was though
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Sadly this seems to be true. Unless, of course, against expectations, Sea the Stars were to turn up after all. Fame and Glory I think could probably have accounted for this field - too bad he won't be there - would certainly have made it more interesting. Ballydoyle surely won't run Rip Van Winkle, would be a big mistake, with the Secretariat at Arlington Park an eminently winnable 10f race for him.

Was a bit disappointed with Conduit's run today - I didn't think he'd beat STS, but I thought he would be closer. Now perhaps is the time to call a halt to chasing 10f races and revert to what the horse does best. Think the KG looks to be between him and Look Here - don't fancy Tartan Bearer at all.
 
Re Rip Van Winkle: as an alternative to the Secretariat, they could go for the more valuable Arlington Million against older horses. RVW would have a better chance in either of these than he would in the KG or in facing STS again.
 
Nefertiti said:
Was a bit disappointed with Conduit's run today - I didn't think he'd beat STS, but I thought he would be closer.
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He improved 4lbs on his run with Cima De Triomphe in the Brigadier Gerard. I'm not sure you could have asked for much more than that.
 
If Sea the Stars runs at Ascot I can't see what will beat him.

If he doesn't run, Conduit looks the pick, at 12f it would be difficult to see Cima de Triomphe reversing the Eclipse placings.

The Coronation Cup had a great finish but a lenght covered the first four and the second and third Youmzain and Look Here have both been beaten since. Frozen Fire was even further back at Epsom.

Tartan Bearer finished less than a lenght in front of Twice Over at Royal Ascot and Twice Over was a long way behind today.

Yeats would be interesting but probably would not have the necessary speed any more but might place.

Masterofthehorse and Golden Sword will probably go elsewhere but if they ran, I think they would be in the mix against the older horses.
 
chroniclandlord said:
If Sea the Stars runs at Ascot I can't see what will beat him.
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A very fast-run 12f might. I can't see them even considering the race.

Conduit will improve for 12f, if he's over today. STS will be compromised at 12f. STS might still win but I wouldn't be certain.
 
Listening to what Kinane was saying after the race about how STS is at home, if he comes out of today raring to go I can see them trying to make hay. The Juddmonte is a fair stretch of mid-summer away.
 
Desert Orchid said:
A very fast-run 12f might. I can't see them even considering the race.

Conduit will improve for 12f, if he's over today. STS will be compromised at 12f. STS might still win but I wouldn't be certain.
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I'm half wondering if there isn't actually a racing argument (as well as the romantic one) developing for a Leger bid.:blink: In a strange way, I'd be more confident that even with the extra 2 furlongs, this would be the easier assignment, given that he'd be in against his own age group in a race which a lot of the better talent won't necessarily consider.

I agree that a fast run 12F's all age race at Ascot might leave him more vulnerable, but would extend this to say more vulnerable than 14F's against horses he's pretty well beaten already. If you made a generous list of horses who might conceiviably be able to beat him at 12F's granted a spot of good fortune, and then worked out how many will turn up at Doncaster, he could be left with a potentially softer assignment which his class will settle, whilst also being able to put to bed any snipes about his stamina and winning a soft paced Derby.

Or put another way, if Oxx feels it necessary to underline his Derby win with another at 12F's or further, the Leger might offer an easier route to doing so that some of the more competitive options?

I don't expect him to line up for one second, and last time I checked Oxx had all but ruled it out, but I'm not sure they'd be that many candidates capable of beating him if F&G is going Niel and Arc.
 
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Oxx quoted on SL site as saying

"The King George and Juddmonte International are the two options. The King George is only three weeks away, but on the other hand it would give him a good break before Leopardstown, and he will only run in one of those two races.
"Although he is in the Arc, that isn't being seriously considered and the ground may well rule that out.
"The English Champion Stakes would come later on I guess, but nothing has been decided."


So if we see him at 12f again it will be in the KG and why not - fast ground and him on a roll .
 
Interesting to see Oxx mention the English Champions Stakes as well; that route would seemingly rule out the Arc but leave a month between Newmarket and the Breeders Cup.

William Hill go 5/1 about Sea The Stars going through the year unbeaten.
 
Warbler said:
I'm half wondering if there isn't actually a racing argument (as well as the romantic one) developing for a Leger bid.:blink: In a strange way, I'd be more confident that even with the extra 2 furlongs, this would be the easier assignment, given that he'd be in against his own age group in a race which a lot of the better talent won't necessarily consider.

I agree that a fast run 12F's all age race at Ascot might leave him more vulnerable, but would extend this to say more vulnerable than 14F's against horses he's pretty well beaten already. If you made a generous list of horses who might conceiviably be able to beat him at 12F's granted a spot of good fortune, and then worked out how many will turn up at Doncaster, he could be left with a potentially softer assignment which his class will settle, whilst also being able to put to bed any snipes about his stamina and winning a soft paced Derby.

Or put another way, if Oxx feels it necessary to underline his Derby win with another at 12F's or further, the Leger might offer an easier route to doing so that some of the more competitive options?

I don't expect him to line up for one second, and last time I checked Oxx had all but ruled it out, but I'm not sure they'd be that many candidates capable of beating him if F&G is going Niel and Arc.
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I was thinking again this morning about STS and 12f. Assuming I'm right about his being a 138 horse at 10f and we know he can win a slow 12f race, he might not be too compromised at 12f. I certainly cant see him improving on what he's done at that trip but if he's generally improving anyway and capable of hitting 140 at 10f in a couple of months' time then he might still be able to hit 135 at Ascot. That would make him very difficult to beat.

The Leger is a different matter altogether. In Nijinsky's year, we wondered if he won the Leger because of his sheer class and despite his not staying. It was probably only when he started siring stayers that we realised he probably did stay anyway. I'm not sure we could say the same about STS. If, and it's a big enough if, 12f stretches his stamina to the limit, the effect of another two furlongs on evaporating stamina can be colossal. Look at Crisp in the last furlong of the National. I'd really hate to see Sea The Stars go through that. He doesn't deserve it. Plenty of other horses have gone to Doncaster with huge numerical advantages over their rivals and hit the wall at 13f. And the Leger is closer to 15f than 14f.
 
The Leger was more competitive in those days though Dessie, today horses will deliberately avoid it by. I realise it isn't going to happen, and I understand why, I just can't help thinking that he'd still win it. Indeed, he might have more to fear from a filly than a colt
 
Oxx has confirmed that the King George is unlikely and the International is much the favourite option next.
 
Oxx won't take any more chances with STS over 12F...does not need to really as the 10F races are there for the taking.. given fast ground.

Would love to see him in the BC Classic later this year. Oxx mentioned he would not run any of his horses on the American Dirt tracks but with the race being at Sanita Anita again there is some hope he will be there.
 
Sea The Stars, Mastercraftsman and Rip Van Winkle all in the Classic.....the Americans will be running scared regardless of what mares turn up!
 
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