King George (Ascot)

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
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Workforce vs Harbinger - evs vs 7/2. I think they may have the prices the wrong way round on Betfair. The fact that Stoute trains them both puts me off steaming in though.
 
Weight Concession

The fact that WORKFORCE will get such a lot of weight from the older horses is for me a huge bias in favour of the 3-y-o.

IF he is more than an average Derby winner, he ought to win at Ascot and it's reasonable to suppose that as this is his fourth outing, there may be more to come.

The paucity of younger horses in recent years and the increasing quality of older horses staying in training has made the KG more of an older horse benefit in recent times but it was far from that way in the past.

For the Derby winner to come straight here suggests to me connections think he is a serious runner. I always thought going to the Curragh was a signal they weren't convinced.
 
I honestly think this could be the sort of race we really should be getting excited about. Two genuine 130+ performers taking each other on at their optimum trip and a battle of the generations. I think their form is very difficult to split so at the prices, 7/2 Harbinger is the call. His course experience looks an advantage, all the more so with Workforce hanging left on both his starts this year.
 
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Euronymous said:
Workforce vs Harbinger - evs vs 7/2. I think they may have the prices the wrong way round on Betfair. The fact that Stoute trains them both puts me off steaming in though.
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Fancy laying me some 7/2 Workforce? :p

The only thing in Harbinger's favour for me is the fact that the race is at Ascot where I take course form a lot more seriously than elsewhere. If the race was anywhere else, I'd probably argue Evens was a generous price.
 
stodge said:
The fact that WORKFORCE will get such a lot of weight from the older horses is for me a huge bias in favour of the 3-y-o.



For the Derby winner to come straight here suggests to me connections think he is a serious runner. I always thought going to the Curragh was a signal they weren't convinced.
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The weight concession is irrelevent. Back in the day I used to think it was a reason to get with the 3yo's in this race but burnt my fingers badly when Opera House beat Commander-in-Chief and White Muzzle obviously giving weight despite the fact he looked of similar merit beforehand.

Stoute holds the race in greater esteem than the Irish Derby and the Arc so it's no surprise he's running both his top class animals. I personally would have kept one of them back for Longchamp.
 
Euronymous said:
The weight concession is irrelevent. Back in the day I used to think it was a reason to get with the 3yo's in this race but burnt my fingers badly when Opera House beat Commander-in-Chief and White Muzzle obviously giving weight despite the fact he looked of similar merit beforehand.

Stoute holds the race in greater esteem than the Irish Derby and the Arc so it's no surprise he's running both his top class animals. I personally would have kept one of them back for Longchamp.
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i think Workforce looked better than CIC tbh.

it will take a very good older horse to beat WF with the wfa sitch..personally don't think Harbinger is good enough..all the would be very decent older horses are out to grass
 
Workforce had a hard race at Epsom. Moore's immediate concern after the race was that maybe he'd been unnecessarily hard on the horse.

On the other hand, his Epsom win was probably on a par with - and arguably even better than - Troy's, and the Derby didn't kill the latter's season.

Given that Harbinger was barely beating the 120 mark before the Hardwick, that the race might just have been a bad race, and that it's a G2, I'd have to say an unaffected Workforce would put Harbinger firmly in its place.

But I wouldn't take evens about it.
 
I think DO sums it up well there,although i would (if that way inclined) take evens. You just know that never at any stage has the Stoute stable consider Harbinger in the same way that they rated workforce. hes taken a pedestrian route to gropup ones, which is fair enough (and again something that stoute is skilled at) but tells its own story Also it is seemingly forgotten that Workforce has only run three times. There is every chance (especially under stoute) that there is a lot of improvement to come
 
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To my mind, a group two is a race which doesnt quite have the appeal to attract group one horses? Is the derby that? How many top three year olds were missing

Unless a whole generation of horses is seriously under par, then the race will certainly have a clutch of horses well capable of competing at group one level. Thats generally been the case.

We havent seen how the beaten horses have progressed yet. How can assumptions about the quality of the race be made at this stage?
 
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Euronymous said:
It was a Group 2 in my mind as soon as the winner was ruled out.
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I think the Derby sometimes is only a G2 quality wise..sometimes even G3:)

So the question is..has WF beat a G1 field or a G3 field?..the clock by- passes the need to see what beaten horses do afterwards..and WF has put in a really good figure..enough to tell me that Harbinger will need to improve a stone to beat him with the ..extremely generous weight allowance.


That weight allowance is generous just to an average Derby winner..nevermind an above average one.

WF has to underperform quite a bit to lose imo..thats all you betting on imo..will he flop?
 
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Don't know about G3, EC1.

The lowest rated winner I recall (on my figures) was Oath at 118. Would that be a G3 rating? Bottom end of G2?
 
EC1 said:
That weight allowance is generous just to an average Derby winner..nevermind an above average one.
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If that was the case the roll call of King George winners would contain a lot of average 3yos - It does not. King's Theatre and maybe Petoski are the only 3yo winners I can remember that were not top class.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Don't know about G3, EC1.

The lowest rated winner I recall (on my figures) was Oath at 118. Would that be a G3 rating? Bottom end of G2?
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i really meant the field behind the winner DO..if this years field is G1 bar the winner ..then we have a real special one for instance..whereas if they are G3 its different
 
Euronymous said:
If that was the case the roll call of King George winners would contain a lot of average 3yos - It does not. King's Theatre and maybe Petoski are the only 3yo winners I can remember that were not top class.
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not necessarily the case

we shouldn't need 100% 3yo winners to prove the allowance is generous..and it shouldn't be judged just on one race

it can't be proven either way because weight affects each horse differently

i just would rather have the average Derby winner against an older horse in the KG because i don't feel its a level playing field generally

how are WF and Harbinger rated on OHR's?..i'll guess that at levels WF is higher rated
 
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The official handicapper appears to have left Harbinger on 120 following the Hardwicke.

Workforce's OR is 128.

I suppose if something beaten in the Hardwicke comes out and runs a big race somewhere the handicapper might revise his figures.
 
Timeform have Workforce on 132p and Harbinger on 131+

Both seem a tad high considering they have Canford Cliffs on 128.
 
I have Workforce on 132+.

The mechanics of calculation are telling me to put harbinger in the high 120s but I'm having doubts about it. I don't think the Hardwicke was much of a race.

I still can't get Canford Cliffs above 124.
 
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sunybay said:
Canford Cliffs 123
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Steve M will not be happy with the way this thread is going. I don't think we'll see CC at his very best until he's up against proper top class opposition. I personally would run Paco Boy in the Sussex and take on Goldikova and Loup le Vega in the Marois with Canford.
 
Euronymous said:
Steve M will not be happy with the way this thread is going. I don't think we'll see CC at his very best until he's up against proper top class opposition. I personally would run Paco Boy in the Sussex and take on Goldikova and Loup le Vega in the Marois with Canford.
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I suspect their experiences in the Morny have put them off this plan.
 
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