King George (Ascot)

Final decs...

Confront Richard Mullen
Harbinger Olivier Peslier
Youmzain (IRE) Richard Hughes
Dar Re Mi William Buick
Daryakana (FR) Gerald Mosse
Cape Blanco (IRE) Colm O'Donoghue
Workforce Ryan Moore
 
Mickey the Marcher said:
Looking at the results of the Tatts derby sale, it surprises me the number of unbroken unamed 3yos by Westerner out there. Granted, some are out of out and out NH mares, but surely some of the others would be worth a spin on the flat to see what they are capable of and then go over the sticks.
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Is it not a matter of timing. These horses are there to be sold. Generally, in natonal hunt, you sell as yearlings or three year olds. At yearling stage, Westerner had no runners. So you had to wait until three year old stage unless you wanted to breeze them. And most breeders won't breeze. that's a pin hookers job. Anyway, Westerner has only hit the mark with stakes flat winners this season (is that correct?). So limited opprtunities to breeze. And anyway, there is plenty of time to go onto the flat after these horses win their bumpers.

On the King George, I fancy Harbinger. I just like the way he did it at Ascot and Barshiba is a decent stick. the rest ofthe field might not have been up to much but I fancy Workforce is potentially over rated (although I have no way of knowing that....it'sjust a gut instinct) for the one run and Cape Blanco might be a better option for the three year olds. Peslier is just an added extra too.
 
Why do I have it in my mind that Dar Re Mi is best with cut in the ground?

That worry aside, pieces of her form make 14's look a very decent price. I thought she ran a decent prep in the Eclipse as well.
 
Its not good at the moment has to be a serious concern for Saturday. Think they have about an 8% strike rate which is very very low for them for this time of year.
 
Apart from Workforce, Harbinger and Ask has he actually got anything else that's half decent though? I think he's got a pretty ropey looking squad of animals this year.


And don't even think of typing the word Zacinto. Absolute hound.
 
I’m concerned that Workforce will not fully let himself down on a firm surface (if Ascot is riding fast tomorrow). That aside (i.e. if the going is not firm) he looks a worthy favourite. A small field, but a connoisseur’s renewal with the Derby and Irish Derby winners taking on two or three very decent older horses.
I doubt I’ll have a bet unless it’s the favourite, but I want bigger than evens.
 
Dar re mi out.

However, I think a lay of Workforce at anything odds on is one of the standout bets of the season.

You have Harbinger, Youmzain, Cape Blanco, Daryakana all running for you at probably around 5/4 - cracking bet.
 
SteveM said:
I’m concerned that Workforce will not fully let himself down on a firm surface (if Ascot is riding fast tomorrow). That aside (i.e. if the going is not firm) he looks a worthy favourite. A small field, but a connoisseur’s renewal with the Derby and Irish Derby winners taking on two or three very decent older horses.
I doubt I’ll have a bet unless it’s the favourite, but I want bigger than evens.
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Is the consensus not that the ground at Epsom was pretty much rattling fast on Derby Day? Think it was Eddie Fremantle who made the point that it was the fastest ground he had ever seen at Epsom (bar one midweek meeting last summer I think).

What do the time buffs make of it in terms of going allowance?
 
trackside528 said:
Is the consensus not that the ground at Epsom was pretty much rattling fast on Derby Day? Think it was Eddie Fremantle who made the point that it was the fastest ground he had ever seen at Epsom (bar one midweek meeting last summer I think).

What do the time buffs make of it in terms of going allowance?
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I didn't like the way he fought against letting himself down at York though, which if anything may have been even faster. There is no doubt that he'd be better on good ground or going with a bit of ease.

It's also worth noting that the fastest times are not always recorded on the fastest going. Pat Eddery observed several years ago that horses are often able to run faster on going just the fast side of good than they are on very firm ground, for the very reason that they refuse to let themselves down when it's hard.

(Note also that although officially good/firm at Epsom, the course had been very heavily watered and was certainly not firm.)
 
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SteveM said:
I didn't like the way he fought against letting himself down at York though, which if anything may have been even faster. There is no doubt that he'd be better on good ground or going with a bit of ease.

It's also worth noting that the fastest times are not always recorded on the fastest going. Pat Eddery observed several years ago that horses are often able to run faster on going just the fast side of good than they are on very firm ground, for the very reason that they refuse to let themselves down when it's hard.

(Note also that although officially good/firm at Epsom, the course had been very heavily watered and was certainly not firm.)
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they do produce faster times though Steve because some horses actually don't mind faster ground..so do let themselves down on it..its those that don't want fast ground that won't.

just been looking at AOB's runners - he's currently 1/22 - with horses losing at 1/3 ...1/4...8/11..evens etc

is CB going to run to form?

Harbinger looks a slow old boat to me who has been beating other slow old boats -

Workforce to win by 5..current odds are generous imo
 
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EC1 said:
Harbinger looks a slow old boat to me who has been beating other slow old boats
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He's been beating solid Group 2 horses hollow. He's as good as last year's winner and is worth a bet at 7/2 on value grounds even though Workforce will probably win.
 
I doubt that Pat Eddery (or various people in the media) ever did a survey comparing adjusted times with official going descriptions, which suggests that times do not get a lot faster on firm compared to good to firm but that they DO get faster.

On my figures the ground is around 15 lb to 25 lb slower at Ascot than at Epsom (about one going differential), though obviously I would be happier still if I was comparing times on different days at exactly the same course.
 
I cannot see that the ground should be an excuse for anything - the times suggest it is perfect slightly faster than good ground.
 
My interpretation of the market at Ascot is a weakness in Harbinger as opposed to real strength in Workforce.For my sins I have backed Cape BLanco win only and Youmzain ew.Hopeful of a result.
 
Spectacular from Harbinger ! The three year olds look like they cut each others throats but alternatively are looking weak.
 
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It was in the bag from the turn. I think Peslier knew he had it by then anyway. When the shot switched to the wide shot I nearly fell off my chair.
 
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