King George (Ascot)

Hamm said:
I'm not ignoring pace at all .. Harbinger was right up with this pace so all I am saying is pace is not the reason for how the race went.
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if you think it was an even run race..then that makes the winner about a 123 speed horse..disappointing

i don't think it was true run..went too fast..so would rate the winner more highly
 
Last 3 furlongs
Cape Blanco 38.8 seconds
Missionaire 38.2 seconds

In the last race Missionaire who led at an even pace and got beaten into 4th ran the last 3f faster than Cape Blanco..the winner of the last ran it even faster as was way behind Missionaire at the 3f marker

how can a horse like Missionaire run the last 3f faster do you think?
 
Bay Willow today ran the last 3f in 36.9 after going a honest early pace..how could it run that fast compared to CB? ran 2 second faster!!

you still think the early exhertions didn't affect CB?..he was tying up so fast that ordinary handicappers can hammer his last 3f time silly
 
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Given how many horses pulled in todays 12f handicap and the first 2 occupied those positions throughout, my first impression was that the race wasn't truly run.
 
these are the finishing speed %'s of recent horses over that 12f..these are quite revealing in the context of how superior the KG run was

Bay Willow = 101.64%
Missionaire = 99.86%
Cape Blanco = 95.99%
Harbinger = 101.35%

Your observation looks fair David if 100% is ok to use here as even pace..

Missionaire has run just about the perfect even pace..Harbinger ran a little slower than even pace similar to Bay Meadow..which means all the horses in the KG ran like shite bar winner

look at Cape Blanco...his finishing speed is way below what it should have been showing that Harbinger beat a rapidly weakening horse

the fact that no horse could pass CB shows that they also performed below par..he was a sitting duck when you see that handicappers could run faster in the last 3f off similar % early splits

those figures suggest that Harbinger has run an even race and the others have fallen short rather than they ran to their best and he ran way above himself.

this also explains the speed figure being nothing out of the ordinary

Harbinger is in reality about a 125 horse but is being rated a stone higher because the others are being judged to have run their race..which it appears they didn't
 
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Any chance you could give us your figure for the last 10 King George's to put yesterday's renewal into a bit of context, EC1?

Cape Blanco looked to run his race yesterday to me. I'm not sure I buy the idea that the pace was overly strong ~ if anything, Cape Blanco was going away from Youmzain at the line. I certainly wouldn't be rating the race through Youmzain (for reasons already mentioned by others) or Daryakana (looked distinctly uncomfortable on the ground).
 
trackside528 said:
Any chance you could give us your figure for the last 10 King George's to put yesterday's renewal into a bit of context, EC1?

Cape Blanco looked to run his race yesterday to me. I'm not sure I buy the idea that the pace was overly strong ~ if anything, Cape Blanco was going away from Youmzain at the line. I certainly wouldn't be rating the race through Youmzain (for reasons already mentioned by others) or Daryakana (looked distinctly uncomfortable on the ground).
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see previous post

CB can't have run to his best or handicappers wouldn't be able to run the last 3f faster than he did
 
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J Alfred Prufrock said:
That is not so, at least where Timeform is concerned.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/10/07/25/manual_121337.html

Interesting stuff on the sectionals (Ascot used to be THE BEST track for them until they took out all the paths), though I for one don't agree with you that Harbinger's time was unexceptional compared to others on the day.
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his time compared to the handicap over C/D doesn't make his figure exceptional though Pru..he is 38lb better than that winner..which makes his speed figure in the 120/123 bracket depending on what you rate the handicapper..that race had a number of horses close up so the OHR of the handicap winner might be a few lbs higher than it was on the day

lets say that CB is being suggested as running near his best then..which is unlikely given his weak finishing 3f
 
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J Alfred Prufrock said:
Maybe. But it obviously begs the question "what is Cape Blanco's best?"

He is not limited by what he had achieved previously, obviously.
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I would expect CB to be able to run the last 3f a lot faster than a 80 odd rated handicapper Pru

if the % speeds are correct then only H has run to form in the KG..the others should have passed CB easily with his soft last 3f time
 
I am going 136/137p with this one,
I was in the racecourse and very impressed with him.



About the rest of the season
the Japan Cup is the race that will suit most.


Also thinking about what happened with Daylami after the Irish Champion, Royal Anthem after the Juddmonte, Hawk Wing after the Lockinge and many others in the past.
 
Some company!!

Highest Timeform Annual Ratings:
145 Sea Bird II
144 Brigadier Gerard, Tudor Minstrel
142 Abernant, Ribot, Windy City
141 Mill Reef
140 Dancing Brave, Dubai Millennium, Sea The Stars, Shergar, Vaguely Noble
 
EC1 said:
Harbinger is in reality about a 125 horse but is being rated a stone higher because the others are being judged to have run their race..which it appears they didn't
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According to Timeform, 142 for Harbinger assumes: "Youmzain and Daryakana running 10lb and 8lb below their Timeform master ratings respectively”.

Personally I believe Timeform has lost its head a little... sensational performance as it was, Harbinger outperformed the others in relative terms on quite fast going. I doubt that we can really consider him to be superior to the likes of Mill Reef and Dancing Brave.

Indeed, should he face the likes of Workforce or Fame & Glory in the Arc on soft going for example, he could well come off worse.
 
what is unlikely is all the other runners running stinkers.

Cape Blanco is an irish Derby winner what means that he is a very unlikely to be a worse to 120 horse, french mare would not be running if not being very well and Youmizain is not he horse he was (something like 127 ) but still runs in mid 110s.


Seeing how the Hardwikce is working and with Harbinger looking a scopey type in hands of a patient trainer, maybe he was not fully fit at the beginning of the season and is a very possible he is at least a 135 horse, if not better
 
Incidentally, Timeform revised its assessment earlier today, according to their communications head honcho Keiran Packman:

“Having had the opportunity to carry out and factor in the due time analysis, Harbinger’s current Timeform master rating will be 140.

“As with all Timeform ratings mid-season, this is a liquid figure and his rating in an historical context will not be agreed until the end of the season and subsequently published in the Racehorses annual.”
 
SteveM said:
According to Timeform, 142 for Harbinger assumes: "Youmzain and Daryakana running 10lb and 8lb below their Timeform master ratings respectively”.

Personally I believe Timeform has lost its head a little... sensational performance as it was, Harbinger outperformed the others in relative terms on quite fast going. I doubt that we can really consider him to be superior to the likes of Mill Reef and Dancing Brave.

Indeed, should he face the likes of Workforce or Fame & Glory in the Arc on soft going for example, he could well come off worse.
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Why do you think it's lost its head though?

I think it is being conservative in saying Youmzain and Daryakana ran 10 and 8 pounds below their master ratings when there is no evidence to support this.

I also don't think it matters if Harbinger runs last in every race he runs in from now on ... I don't see any way even then this race can be rated less than 140.
 
I think that there is plenty of evidence that Youmzain and Daryakana ran below their best form . Youmzain hung right on the fast ground and Daryakana looked like a cat on hot bricks close home .

It was a brilliant performance but although he could be improving hand over fist - the Hardwicke form would have had Duncan and Barshiba ahead of Cape Blanco !
 
That would be if he hasn't improved from the Hardwicke, which he clearly has.

They may have run below form, but surely not more than that which Timeform allowed for?
 
"You've got to be very impressed. He looked an improving colt before the race," Phil Smith, the British Horseracing Authority's head of handicapping, told At The Races.
"All his performances this year were very progressive and I expected him to a run a big race. I didn't think he'd win and I certainly didn't think he'd win like that.
"We looked at the second horse, Cape Blanco, and imagined what if Harbinger had not been in the race. Cape Blanco was 119 going into the race and so we took the view that Cape Blanco had replicated his 119.
"We therefore just had to decide what we called the 11 lengths. We took the view that was worth 16lb which would be pretty much the norm and brings Harbinger out on 135.
"It's quite a big jump. We had him on 123 before that, but I'm pretty confident he's that and could probably be better.
"It was very impressive. Instantly we've got Harbinger 1lb below Sea The Stars end of season performance (in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe).
"Harbinger has still got one, two or possibly three more races to come, so we will see how the King George works out, see how Harbinger runs in his subsequent races. It may well be we have him as high or higher than Sea The Stars.
"He's the best horse in the world today, definitely, but he's not the best horse ever.
"He's got a hell of a lot to prove. It was a once performance. No-one could get any of his previous performances into the 130s, even though he looked to be climbing the ladder.
"We would want him to do it again before we can get him into the late 130s or early 140s. He's got to do something similar in the future.
"A lot happens to the subsequent form of Cape Blanco and Youmzain. We will see how they perform. Horses get ratings not just on the fact they win by long distances, but also on the subsequent form of the horses they beat.
"We have got plenty to look forward to before the end of the year. It was a wow race."
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How do you decide on what you 'call' the 11 lengths? Surely it is what it is, and you use a + or P?
 
Hamm said:
Why do you think it's lost its head though?

I think it is being conservative in saying Youmzain and Daryakana ran 10 and 8 pounds below their master ratings when there is no evidence to support this.

I also don't think it matters if Harbinger runs last in every race he runs in from now on ... I don't see any way even then this race can be rated less than 140.
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I see Timeform has already dropped the rating by 2lb. I dare say his master rating at the end of the season will be cut further. In my opinion the 142 was a knee-jerk reaction to a horse looking sensational in a small field on going that favoured it relative to the others. He has run an undeniably good race, but Timeform (not for the first time) has got a little carried away (as it acknowledges itself on this occasion).
 
I now see the BHA's Phil Smith has given Harbinger an official mark of 135... it's getting smaller.

"HARBINGER'S new status as the world's top rated horse was confirmed on Monday when BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith announced he had been given a new mark of 135".
 
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