Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He's on the decline in general though.
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King George (Ascot)
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Harbinger, Fame and Glory and a few of the French improvers - a place will be tough.
EC1
On a break
but the straight course times have nothing to do with the round course ones here..the round course times are faster than the straight on this occasion..how fast have you made the 12f handicap? ..because its highly unlikely that race can be rated much higher than the OHR's on offer with them finishing in a heap
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He's run better in previous seasons at both Epsom and Saint Cloud. He won't get near a place this year.
EC1
On a break
i still have to question the 140 Pru..no disrespect to Timeform..but i can't just accept 140 because they give it..i can go with 135..but 140 is highly questionable
if it was obvious that CB had run near his form i would be happy to join in with this celebration of greatness...i really would..i want to see top notchers same as everyone else
i'm sure many thought we had seen a top nothcher in the Derby..where again we had to query the form of those behind..even though the speed figure was good.
Hasn't it been the same the past 3 years? He has been only beaten by the best horse of the last 30 years, and a filly who is in the top 5 of the same period.
Fame and Glory will struggle with how he runs in an Arc. You need a turn of foot, and I don't think he has one.
Whilst I realise people generally are not a fan of the horse, Youmzain's style of racing is perfect for the Arc.
With respect I understand them perfectly well thanks - I just think over a certain level they are extremely subjective and only of limited assistance in assessing a horse's ability .
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It is, but he doesn't quicken like he used to. Compare his run at Epsom this year to when he almost pipped Soldier of Fortune. He barely picked up in Dubai like he used to either.
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Everything you have posted suggests you don't, or at least hold a view which is contrary to what almost every other person thinks of them.
I agree with you completely Sea the Stars is a much better horse; however, and unfortunately, he never put in a performance like Harbinger's - in fact, his 140 is much more over the top than the rating allotted to Harbinger, and much easier to take apart.
I agree with you completely Sea the Stars is a much better horse; however, and unfortunately, he never put in a performance like Harbinger's - in fact, his 140 is much more over the top than the rating allotted to Harbinger, and much easier to take apart.
Yes and he has done remarkably well to do it three years in a row...but chances are it will end this year. I like Youmzain, and never put people off him before in the past.
Fame And Glory will struggle to win a race ridden for a real turn of foot...thankfully connections have finally realised he is not that sort of horse. Helissio, Hurricane Run, Sinndar, Marienbard etc were hardly turn of foot merchants and they won their Arcs. By the time Fame And Glory goes for the Arc he will be a dual 10 furlong Group 1 winner imo.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
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J Alfred Prufrock
At the Start
I not only hope that you would question a rating you are not convinced by rather than take it on trust, I would expect you, of all people, to do just that!
Don't imagine that it has been arrived at off the cuff, though. ;-)
davidjohnson
At the Start
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- Jun 29, 2007
- Messages
- 3,434
Fair enough.
I am one of the few who thought Hurricane run had a fine turn of foot, especially in his Arc.
The French two are the ones I'm really interested in, and don't think Harbinger will produce what is needed in the Arc, nor has he had a campaign suited to winning that race. He makes the market for every other horse, which offers up some great ante post opportunities for Paris.
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Some interesting points in discussion here,
some points:
About the weight for age,
it is something many people dont understand and what is more important , they are not going to understand.
About the Harbingers figure, of course is a provisional and will depend on what most of the horse will do after this until the end of the season.
About the comparations with Sea The Stars, the irish horse was very consistent and was difficult to rate because he didnt things more than needed , but I think his best trip was 10f.
Harbinger on figures has put a similar performance to STS in the Eclipse and the Irish champion but much better form than STS in the Arc or in the Derby.
If Harbinger is able to repeat this in the Arc and /or Japan Cup he still can be one of the greats if not people will always crap the form even if the form of the beaten rivals boost the form.
some points:
About the weight for age,
it is something many people dont understand and what is more important , they are not going to understand.
About the Harbingers figure, of course is a provisional and will depend on what most of the horse will do after this until the end of the season.
About the comparations with Sea The Stars, the irish horse was very consistent and was difficult to rate because he didnt things more than needed , but I think his best trip was 10f.
Harbinger on figures has put a similar performance to STS in the Eclipse and the Irish champion but much better form than STS in the Arc or in the Derby.
If Harbinger is able to repeat this in the Arc and /or Japan Cup he still can be one of the greats if not people will always crap the form even if the form of the beaten rivals boost the form.
EC1
On a break
Harbinger's is a doddle to take apart..I've already knocked a big question mark against it which no one can answer...I'd like to see you take apart the STS one.
EC1
On a break
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
STS is a better horse, but not by much. And Harbinger would have beaten him handily over 12f.
For me STS best run was the Eclipse - form that is totally bomb proof and deserving of 140. The posts I've read on various forums "taking it apart" usually have this mythical sort of half a stone difference in Conduit's runs at Sandown and Ascot - like he was much better over 12f. This is bollocks. Unfortunately STS was never a galloper like a Generous or a Harbinger so will always be underrated by a few people.
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I disagree with your points, though find them interesting and enjoyable to read.
Is Fame and Glory, or rather was Fame and Glory a low/near mid 130s horse over 10 furlongs? Not on my nelly! He wasn't, and over that distance still isn't, anything of the sort. He would need to be, for Sea the Stars to have received the rating he did.
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I'd disagree strongly with this - I don't think we ever saw anything like the best of Sea the Stars over 12 furlongs - the Derby was run too slow to show him at his best (and others to be fair), and he had a nightmare of a race in the Arc and looked to be slightly gone in his coat to me, and that race came at the end of an unparalled campaign.