King George Chase

Tanlic said:
At the speed they can go fence to fence mid race in a King George make it really tough to keep up.

Hennessy Gold Cup Winners Ryanair winners and Gold Cup winners have failed to see out the trip never moreson than when Kauto was around.

Yesterday would not be the fastest ever KG run but it was still about 40 seconds fast then the Rowland Merrick at Wetherby for example.
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Interesting that, Tanlic. Stayers can’t go the pace and die trying, pace setters keep finding themselves going to fast and pay the price. Looks like reet hard is right that his first fence blunder forced the right tactics on Tornado Flyer whether he liked it or not. They always keep saying Kempton 3 miles is an easy get - never looks like it to me and the point you make says why.
 
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Are we to conclude that the race fell apart and that by being ridden conservatively (whether by accident or design) only TF ran its race?

If so should we just dismiss the form?
 
Desert Orchid said:
How so, Euro?
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Because Timeform have in the past admitted they won't go below a certain rating for big races and I think the OR are the same. Look at Double Shuffle running today - his peak rating was 166 which he earned obviously from finishing second in a King George. That is a nonsense.

Ultimately ratings via Group races are just guesses and when the companies that issue them have a bar they won't go below for certain races they can't be trusted.
 
barjon said:
Interesting that, Tanlic. Stayers can’t go the pace and die trying, pace setters keep finding themselves going to fast and pay the price. Looks like reet hard is right that his first fence blunder forced the right tactics on Tornado Flyer whether he liked it or not. They always keep saying Kempton 3 miles is an easy get - never looks like it to me and the point you make says why.
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Aye, BJ - Kempton's a speed track and most involved in NH racing recognise it as such.
 
Euronymous said:
Ultimately ratings via Group races are just guesses and when the companies that issue them have a bar they won't go below for certain races they can't be trusted.
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I get that, but some years back they abandoned the idea of just going on form because it wasn't reliable when horses with 'ordinary' ratings went for a historically good race and they ended up under-rating them. That was the rationale behind switching to 10-year standards. They're constantly back-checking (as any ratings compiler should) to see if the form is standing up.

One good example developing is Metier's Tolworth Hurdle.

But I reckon - largely - the 10-year standards approach had been proven to be more reliable.

Obviously an individual like myself isn't tied to company policies and I can opt to go low or high as dictated either by my form figures, time figures or gut instinct but I'm always interested in what numbers the 10-year standards are crunching. After all, why have a complex computer algorithm and not apply it?


Euronymous said:
Because Timeform have in the past admitted they won't go below a certain rating for big races and I think the OR are the same. Look at Double Shuffle running today - his peak rating was 166 which he earned obviously from finishing second in a King George. That is a nonsense.
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In hindsight, yes, the form flattered Double Shuffle but his subsequent form suggested that it was only by about 7lbs so maybe the word 'nonsense' is a bit strong. There are 15000 races per year in Britain & Ireland and I reckon the number of scenarios in which this occurs is probably less than 1%.

I think that's acceptable. It hardly renders the ratings 'meaningless'.
 
I think that's possibly the worst ride Bryony's ever had. Go suckered in there, should have dropped in behind and let Rachel do her thing. Not saying would necessarily have won , but clearly had little left when started to be pushed. With that thought maybe was a brilliant ride by Mullins?
 
I think it’s more often than 1%, desert. I always temper the rating when it’s an outlier in terms of what the horse has achieved before (or after as time progresses).

Maybe Glory And Fortune behind Epatante yesterday will be a case in point.

“That was a massive run - but Glory And Fortune has thrown his handicap mark out of the window. I think they have just gone very fast on soft ground. I don't think he has improved 20lb, anyway”
 
barjon said:
Maybe Glory And Fortune behind Epatante yesterday will be a case in point.

“That was a massive run - but Glory And Fortune has thrown his handicap mark out of the window. I think they have just gone very fast on soft ground. I don't think he has improved 20lb, anyway”
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Yes, imagine what was going through my head yesterday, remembering that I was on it at 33/1 in the Betfair Hurdle off 131, getting 2lbs from Soaring Glory!
 
Euronymous said:
Because Timeform have in the past admitted they won't go below a certain rating for big races and I think the OR are the same. Look at Double Shuffle running today - his peak rating was 166 which he earned obviously from finishing second in a King George. That is a nonsense.

Yes and it took 6 minutes to put him up and 3 years and 10 deafeats to get him back down again.

The handicapper has no imagination he's like a robot.

Who believed the ratings in the DO today 169 Shishkin 167 Greanateen? Pity the bookies didn't we'd all be millionaires:)
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Looking back at the race, I reckon Clan Des Obeaux probably ran the race of his life in this. Close up to the strong pace, on ground which had gone against him, he had them all beaten, until his stamina gave out in the closing stages.
Sure, he had a hard race and it may take some getting over but, even as a 10yo, and given normal ground, there's little to suggest he won't be a major force in next year's renewal
 
I reckon PN has been really good at placing him and he's looked better than he really is.

As far as soft ground goes he hacked up in it in 2019 beating the would be superstar Cyrname who granted won nothing afterwards bar a averarage group race by these standards at Wetherby.

However the times would suggest the ground was very similar this year and I did say before the race PN had his ready made excuse about the ground ready for his pair.

His best win for me came when he beat Thistlecrack but even that falls below what you expect from a KG.

Unlike you Reet I reckon we've heard just about heard the last of Clan Des Obeaux and the young brigade will take over by this time next year.

He might pick up an early season grade 2 next season before the big guns coe out as PN is a master at placing them but after that forget it
 
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granger said:
Dessie

If your tasked with rating yesterday's KG, what are your early thoughts and which horse (if any) are you rating it through?
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My initial route would be to rate Tornado Flyer as having matched his previous best and work back from there. Then I'd go back through TF's form to see if I'd under-rated it to start with. After that I'd double check the time of the race compared to others on the day to see if it suggests a reason for going higher. Later, I'd see what the sectional analysts (in particular Simon Rowlands) conclude and how convincing their arguments are. Then I'd settle on ratings for the race and probably put a question mark at the top of the result just to remind me to keep an eye on how the form works out going forward. I'm usually open to upgrading (or downgrading) a race if the evidence supports the idea.
 
Tanlic said:
I reckon PN has been really good at placing him and he's looked better than he really is.

As far as soft ground goes he hacked up in it in 2019 beating the would be superstar Cyrname who granted won nothing afterwards bar a averarage group race by these standards at Wetherby.

However the times would suggest the ground was very similar this year and I did say before the race PN had his ready made excuse about the ground ready for his pair.

His best win for me came when he beat Thistlecrack but even that falls below what you expect from a KG.

Unlike you Reet I reckon we've heard just about heard the last of Clan Des Obeaux and the young brigade will take over by this time next year.

He might pick up an early season grade 2 next season before the big guns coe out as PN is a master at placing them but after that forget it
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Aye, Fist, same ground as 2019, but run a whole 9 seconds faster this - a fair indication of the severity of this year's savage pace.
Write him off at your own peril.
 
Gold Cup is now looking just as bad with A Pus Tard failing to get home again.

I am still in the Protektorat 20/1 camp who has 10 lbs to find with him so I waiting with interest to see what comes next
 
Desert Orchid said:
Are we to conclude that the race fell apart and that by being ridden conservatively (whether by accident or design) only TF ran its race?

If so should we just dismiss the form?
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granger said:
Dessie

If your tasked with rating yesterday's KG, what are your early thoughts and which horse (if any) are you rating it through?
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Looking back through my figures, the highest historical figure I have for Tornado Flyer is his Festival form of lst season when he got 166 for his run behind Allaho.

The time performances between the King George and Kauto Star are not far off what I might expect (17lbs in TF's favour). Simon Rowlands's pace map says Bravemansgame ran progressively slower than par until the closing stages, while the KG was run aggressively faster than par and was slowing down until another injection of pace caused by Saint Calvados's premature ejaculation then an understandably weak finish.

So while the net differential is as it should be, that's probably as much down to coincidence as relation.

RPRs would have us believe that TF suddenly ran 8lbs better than ever before - the Double Shuffle phenomenon? - so his future performances will need to be checked.

For now, I'm going along with the notion that Tornado Flyer ran to his best previous form (166) and the remainder flopped.

Going off at a bit of a tangent, Bravemansgame's rating for the Kauto Star is nothing exceptional [on my figures] and I'll be a little surprised if he's good enough for the RSA. On the other hand, my figures say Ahoy Senor was well below his previous best. I'm open to the idea that perhaps I'm back-fitting my ratings to support my live-watching impression that Ahoy Senor was never travelling or jumping as fluently as before but I plan to check the latter's odds for the RSA (or whatever the fvck moniker it's under now) and take a punt, although I do think Aintree is where we'll see him to best effect.

Edit - hold that thought for now about Ahoy Senor. I'm half-expecting one or two bookies to go NRNB on Monday.
 
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That the 1st and 3rd both made early errors, then outran their prices, tells it's own story - unequivocaly.
 
I was just reading Lucindas take on Ahoy Senor which to me is double dutch. She says whe wants to run him ona galloping track which will suit him best.

Wetherby is a galloping track like the tracks where the horse has won before which is fair enough.

But why would she even be thinking of running him at Cheltenham which is stiff and undulation like Carlisle where he failed miserably.

I wouldn't touch him witha barge pole for the festival. He is not a great jumper and if anything eratic when under pressure.

I'd take a bet he'll end up over hurdles sometime in the next year
 
Carlisle was his first run as a chaser and he looked like he needed it.

Expect him to bounce back at Cheltenham and hit the frame.

I never judge a chaser based on a Kempton run, it is the Chester of jumps tracks and should have houses built on it (what happened to that fine plan?)
 
reet hard said:
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/29-December-2021/hats-off-to-danny-mullins-for-king-george-ride
Typical SR stuff, where the clock is everything, while ignoring the early errors that contributed a deal to the finishing positions of both 1st and 3rd.
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Lydia Hislop caught it, reet.

“ But what about the actual King George winner, Tornado Flyer? Clearly, he benefitted from a canny ride – although his own scrappy jumping at the first two obstacles ensured he was appropriately positioned out the back early on, before being switched to the outside and making steady progress on the second circuit.”
 
Tanlic said:
I was just reading Lucindas take on Ahoy Senor which to me is double dutch. She says whe wants to run him ona galloping track which will suit him best.

Wetherby is a galloping track like the tracks where the horse has won before which is fair enough.

But why would she even be thinking of running him at Cheltenham which is stiff and undulation like Carlisle where he failed miserably.

I wouldn't touch him witha barge pole for the festival. He is not a great jumper and if anything eratic when under pressure.

I'd take a bet he'll end up over hurdles sometime in the next year
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Wetherby's changed since your day, Fist. It's no longer the test it was, since they chopped off the bottom end to extend the A1.
 
barjon said:
Lydia Hislop caught it, reet.

“ But what about the actual King George winner, Tornado Flyer? Clearly, he benefitted from a canny ride – although his own scrappy jumping at the first two obstacles ensured he was appropriately positioned out the back early on, before being switched to the outside and making steady progress on the second circuit.”
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Wasn't that also mentioned on TV on the day in the immediate aftermath of the race?

I don't think it alters the fact that Tornado Flyer benefitted from being a bit further back than most. Maybe Danny Mullins just got lucky rather than executing a tactical masterplan, which I've seen suggested in one or two places. I think Simon Rowlands used the phrase 'hats off to' DM. Maybe it would have been more appropriate to say 'jammy bastert' (but the truth is probably somewhere in between).
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Wasn't that also mentioned on TV on the day in the immediate aftermath of the race?

I don't think it alters the fact that Tornado Flyer benefitted from being a bit further back than most. Maybe Danny Mullins just got lucky rather than executing a tactical masterplan, which I've seen suggested in one or two places. I think Simon Rowlands used the phrase 'hats off to' DM. Maybe it would have been more appropriate to say 'jammy bastert' (but the truth is probably somewhere in between).
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He still had a race to run from that point and he executed it very well, so hat’s off to the jammy bastert.
 
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