King George V1 Chase Kempton Thurs 26 Dec 2019

JamesRB said:
good post but there's a slight contradiction in there by putting up thistlecrack, in part due to his 2nd last year, when you go on to somewhat dismiss Clan due to winning a bad race last year. i guess there's a price differential but i'd be massively disappointed in LIT if his stablemate crosses the line before him.

if the mare wins well on sunday without too much of a hard race she'll be interesting.
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I get your point James, but I think the race will be run completely differently this year, and more akin to the Might Bite/Native River duel we saw in the Gold Cup. The case I make is that I don't believe that will suit Clan des Obeaux, and it will suit Thistlecrack better. Thistlecrack was second last year off a slow pace. Off a fast pace I believe he would have beaten Clan des Obeaux, and we'd have seen a very different result. Bear in mind we've seen Thistlecrack perform off a hot pace around Kempton before. Just my opinion, and one I've used to form my strategy for this race particularly given the huge disparity in the price of both horses for a lengths difference last year. Whether that'll be good enough to win is clearly of some doubt and 20/1 tells you that, but if you're looking for something to pick up the pieces as I've opined, he'd be one of the more interesting horses at a price.
 
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I think you raised some interesting angles, Maruco. The one thing I can't fully get my head around (in general, not just from your posts) is LIT, and his chances in the race relative to how it might be run.

You've suggested that the pace the race is likely to be run at won't suit LIT. But he's not slow, not at all. Surely he can lie up with the pace (as much as any other horse in the race can keep up in behind Cyrname and the gallop he will set).

Remember almost all of LIT's form last season ties in within a length of Defi over 2m 4f, who looks to be a QMCC horse this season.

Haydock was really the first time LIT was held up. Maybe that was with a view to getting the trip? And maybe he just out sprinted BDM off a slow pace at ... But look at Aintree last year over 3m where he went from the front, showing both speed (to burn off the RSA winner Topofthegame) and stamina (to see out the trip).

In summary, I'm not saying LIT will win the KG, but I don't believe it will be a fast run race that will beat him.
 
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What can beat each of the top performers in the KG

Altior - Trip, age

Cyrname - Trip

Footpad - being short of top class, trip

LIT - least concerns for me

CDO - Stable 2nd string, poor debut, far deeper race than 2018
 
Trip at the pace they'll be going has to be a concern for LIT. Not for one moment saying he won't cope with it, but he's not run in a race of this calibre where they'll be going full pelt from the flag.

I'd say you're a tad harsh on Clan there too, his run at Down Royal was perfectly respectable first time out when Nicholls wasn't firing and RTR was fully primed for it and is a grand horse on his day. Would possibly share concerns about him at the trip too though if the expected pace comes to fruition.
 
edgt said:
Travel, staff and the hassle of weather i imagine.
Best Mate getting a bang in the ear /face may not have helped matters either !
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And in May it is too hot for them to travel to Punchestown!!

extraordinary how these factors don't seem to stop Irish runners from going to the UK at xmas, Cheltenham and Aintree!!

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Maruco said:
I'm not sure about LIT seeing out a fast run three miles PJ. The race at Haydock was pretty slow and he was just quicker than BDM. My feeling is this race may well find him out. One run in open company out sprinting BDM is enough for me to want to take him on at 5/2 anyway. This race is more likely to be run to suit BDM of the two, and BDM's record isn't great around Kempton. That said I think Twiston-Davies might have held something back this time rather than leave his race behind at Haydock.
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I do not think BDM will run in this race. Connections have always said he is not suited to Kempton, and now they are not in the running for the bonus, I think they will save him for something else.
 
LIT ticks all the boxes for me and his last two runs look solid. Beating Count Meribel comfortably giving him weight over a c/d, that CM is the course record holder. Then beating BDM at a c/d he has looked invincible at. I do not think he has much more to prove and is improving rapidly. Presumably Cyrname will make the running and if he truly stays the he should win, However, he still has to prove he can do it at 3m as I am not worried about the track for him. Altior was he fully fit behind Cyrname l/t/o? Has an excellent course record and is still class. If any surprises I think it will be him but still has to prove it my book. Fascinating race but will we get more than 7 or 8 runners?
 
I’ve settled on Footpad.

Flat track, 3 miles, horrific ground. Question marks over Cyrname distance wise, and arguably class wise (I know that sounds silly, but I have my doubts) Lostintranslation is very solid, but will have higher aspirations come March.

Footpad could be very well trained for this race to be at peak, and is obviously very high class. Think he’s getting overlooked for this, and will hopefully find some match bets, he beats Clan Des Obeaux who’s a lot shorter in the market.
 
Double J said:
I’ve settled on Footpad.

Flat track, 3 miles, horrific ground. Question marks over Cyrname distance wise, and arguably class wise (I know that sounds silly, but I have my doubts) Lostintranslation is very solid, but will have higher aspirations come March.

Footpad could be very well trained for this race to be at peak, and is obviously very high class. Think he’s getting overlooked for this, and will hopefully find some match bets, he beats Clan Des Obeaux who’s a lot shorter in the market.
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Barry G booked

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Cyrname would slap Footpad silly over 2m5f. Can't see how you can have trip concerns over him and be confident Footpad will get home, let alone pose a threat, given his campaign last year.

He's not beaten a 160 horse over fences let alone what he's about to face.
 
Bonjers said:
Cyrname would slap Footpad silly over 2m5f. Can't see how you can have trip concerns over him and be confident Footpad will get home, let alone pose a threat, given his campaign last year.

He's not beaten a 160 horse over fences let alone what he's about to face.
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Cyrname was getting beat by 150 rated handicappers only a year ago getting weight. Admittedly looks a different beast without the hood, but I don’t think he’s the beast some make him out to be. Admittedly, if he wins here I’ll believe the hype.

If you strike Footpads year off as a bad year last term, and he came into this off a run out and his Arkle win, he’d be around 3s or 4s for this. You have to be very forgiving of last year, but nothing seemed to go for him and I think there was evidently a problem.

He could be a horse I follow off a cliff, but if you believe those that know him better than we do, the 26th will literally be his optimal conditions, couldn’t make it better if you tried. If he gets trounced out the park here as you suggest, I’ll strike a line through him and forget. But at 10s it’s too good a price for me to turn down. I also think he’s a much better horse than Clan Des Obeaux, so I’ll be doing the match bet as well.

Could well be wrong, but I hope not.
 
He was, but he's clearly a vastly superior horse nowadays. PFN has outlined at length how they could barely train him as he was an absolute lunatic at home. I can share and understand your concerns about him getting the trip and wouldn't be getting involved at 11/8.

I just can't get excited about a horse who's beaten one last time out who's come out the pointing field and has bled when he's really had to dig in and fight out of novice company. He traveled very well into the Ryanair and then fell out the back of the TV when he had to find.

Would also have significant concerns about his jumping at speed. He was very fortunate not to come a cropper in the Arkle when they went off mad quick.

For me, if he beats Thistlecrack home he's run well.
 
Can't have Footpad for this ,thinks its between the top two.
Hopefully the ground won't be rotten like most of this season, not a great sight watching tired horses on desperate ground.
 
Can Cyrname perform at another track the way he does at Ascot? If he does then surely he wins, but It's enough of a question mark for me to go for Lostintranslation.
 
Could some kind soul make a cogent case for Lostintranslation?

Without access to the form I can't do it myself but it strikes me that he's a long way short of King George winning form. Am I missing something important?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Could some kind soul make a cogent case for Lostintranslation?

Without access to the form I can't do it myself but it strikes me that he's a long way short of King George winning form. Am I missing something important?
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You don't think that beating Bristol in the Betfair or beating the RSA winner easily at Aintree is even close to KG winning form?
 
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