King George VI Chase

I did see but can't remember. Think it matched his hurdle rating rpr.
 
Last edited:
HawkWing said:
I was amazed by the performance, moreso by the fact that good and all that it was, there was room for improvement.

Turning for home, it looked as if Thistlecrack was still gassy - running with the choke out - and a horse as good as Cue Card (another gassy traveller at times) under pressure. My initial impression was Scudamore slowing down into the last cost him 3l or so, but beginning to think that Thistlecrack may have got as far as he could while still barely under control. He didnt finish the race in the same way he was doing so over hurdles last year.

I find it hard to see what horse is talented enough to be near him when he runs out of gas, but if running the same way, it could happen up the hill at Cheltenham. And 5/4 is tight on that basis. I would suspect that if Jenny Pitman trained the second favourite, what tactic could be employed to keep him lit up but if he could ever be switched off i would think he has another 10l on this week's performance. if zipping around Kempton for the next four years is all he does, that would keep me happy.
Click to expand...

Your post, especially the part where you say he was slowing down,got me thinking so I took a closer look at the race.

I took some time out to compare the sectionals of both the Kauto Star and the King George.

I was mostly interested in finding out how quickly Thistlecrack had covered the long distance from the 4th last to the 3rd last. I fully expected he would be faster than the novice Might Bite as that is when Thistlecrack pulled away from Cue Card and the rest of his field.

I got a surprise: 4th last to 3rd last Thistlecrack 32 secs Might Bite 32 secs, both took 13 seconds between the 3rd last and second last but from the 2nd last to the last Thistlecrack was 2 seconds slower than the novice.

Granted from halfway between the 2 fences Jacob had a rush of blood to the head but surely it wasn't an 8 length rush of blood.

Safe to say Thistlecrack was slowing down something that seemed to be backed up by how much the others gained on him close home.

Another factor which adds even more interest is that Royal Vacation and Cue Card covered the distance of 4 out to the winning post in exactly the same time yet Royal Vacation looked to be going much slower

I took a look back to Cue Card the Previous year the ground was massively slower which was reflected in Faugheen's time and Tea for Two's compared to this years races. But the real tell tale on time. Cue Card and Vautour covered the last 4 fences 1 second /4 lengths faster than Thistlecrack.

Perhaps Thistlecrack had more to give but the way he travelled with the choke out as you said, I would have to question just how much more/ I hope for his sake I am wrong because you wouldn't win a Gold Cup on that form as it has turned out to be one very poor renewal at the end of the day.

I certainly wouldn't take bets on there being nothing that can get to Thistlecrack in the Gold Cup. He's obviously very good but skipping round Kempton and never being put under pressure is not the same as 16 runners vying for places and 1/2 dozen wanting to be up with the leaders. That said he's been there in a World Hurdle and at Aintree and he never turned a hair.
Looking at the betting I do struggle to find a danger bar Don Cossack who I would back if he ran but Gold Cups often look that way but seldom turn out the way they look on paper

I am in no way crabbing the horse just stating the facts instead of listening to a commentator telling me Cue Card was fighting back valiantly when the truth is he was running a stone below his best.

It's not that long ago when Kauto Star 8/11 only needed to turn up to win the Gold Cup and if there was a danger it would be Denman. He ended up on the deck when looking beat and the unfancied Imperial Commander 14/1 tore denman a new backside and Kauto Star won 5 King George's. So caution is the name of the game there's a lot of even money shots you could back in much easier races
 
It's fair enough if you go by hard form figures at the end.


Am sure he has much more improvement in him given his profile but like any of them, the way he attacks some of his fences, he could end up on all fours with one erratic jump.
 
I honestly doubt if that will happen he's not even hinted at a mistake in the King George and is as good a leper as you could wish for.

My one worry is if he runs with "the choke out" to steal a phrase from Hawkwing and is up against horses like Native River Djakadam Don Cossack Coneygree and a 100% right Cue Card he will wilt in the closing stages.

It will be fun to watch if they all run in it
 
Tanlic said:
I honestly doubt if that will happen he's not even hinted at a mistake in the King George and is as good a leper as you could wish for.

My one worry is if he runs with "the choke out" to steal a phrase from Hawkwing and is up against horses like Native River Djakadam Don Cossack Coneygree and a 100% right Cue Card he will wilt in the closing stages.

It will be fun to watch if they all run in it
Click to expand...

I don't think Thistlecrack had the choke out at any time in the race. He cruised round in 2nd gear....then slowed to a canter after the last.
 
I agree with that Dave. When he serves it up to them none of them can go with him. The only doubt for me is if he jumps on the day. If he does he wins.
 
Paddy Brennan's post-race interview was the most telling for me.

He didn't use the word 'unbeatable' but he may as well have.

My only concern would predictably be the **** or bust jumping over some of those open ditches.

Still find myself watching through the fingers from behind the sofa.
 
Its a stretch to think there will be a big gold cup field this year. And certainly only a handful that would matter.

It is amazing how quickly Cue Card has become third best in the stable in the space on 10 minutes - before the race Nick Luck talking to Jaan Bishop where she may have been hinting that she didnt expect him to beat thistlecrack when saying "we want to win a gold cup, we already have a king george'. Now the Ryanair looks favoured. Tizzards seem to be the ones writing off the horse.

I was amazed by the visual of thistlecrack turning in champing at the bit and after the third last it looked like it could have been a kauto star winning distance (with Cue Card losing by an exaggerated margin having chased him early). Why that didnt happen to me is key to the horses Gold Cup chances. If it was that he could have done but didn't need to, grand, you can see why he is as short as he is. He is priced accordingly.

Djakadam is the type quick enough to lead him early and strong enough to come back at him up the hill. (Willie will be very happy with the lexus I think). Thistlecrack could be so far ahead turning in that it makes no difference. Still that impression seeing him champing at the bit while Cue Card struggling....takes some animal.
 
Euro kindly gave us a link https://www.timeform.com/horse-racin...stown-29122016 which totally backs up what i was tryingto point out.

Does no one realise how badly Cue Card has run and how slow Thistlecrack was actually travelling?

He looked fantastic......"Pendil like" even Aye!! but look what happened to him

On reflection we had a 2 horse race and horse B ran like a lame mule and you are all shouting CERTAINTY.........

Aff yer heids as we say in sunny Shawlands:lol:

Have a look back

Djackadam went of fav ran well finished 2nd

Kauto Star 8/11 Absolute Certainty (stuffed)

Long Run 7/4 only needed to turn up (Stuffed)

Bobsworth 6/4 looked certain to win after taking the Lexus (Stuffed)

Silviniaco Conti went off fav twice (Stuffed)

8 runners 18 runners the Gold Cup is a law unto itself..........
 
Last edited:
Thistlecrack travelled fast enough to win and seemed to have plenty in hand.
Point already made about favs "just having to turn up for old Cup " but thanks for listing the examples.
Market definitely skewed in favour of the ew punter so make hay while you can.
Any bookie NRNB yet ? they were queueing up this time last year.
 
Back
Top