King George VI Chase

Desert Orchid said:
Total guess on my part but I imagine the closing sectional par for the KG is around 105% (since it's a short home straight) so it looks like Hewick has taken advantage of the others' slowing down.

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Hopefully SR will do a piece at ATR.
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I had a look at some of the sectionals in the KG. At the start of the second circuit and down the back there were 3 or 4 sub 14 second sections - shortly after that De Boinville sent Shishkin for home very early. I think all of those front 3 were absolutely gone and Hewick would have won even if Shishkin had completed.
 
Flagship uberalles said:
I had a look at some of the sectionals in the KG. At the start of the second circuit and down the back there were 3 or 4 sub 14 second sections - shortly after that De Boinville sent Shishkin for home very early. I think all of those front 3 were absolutely gone and Hewick would have won even if Shishkin had completed.
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Totally understandable take but I have a very high opinion of Shishkin, which is why I think he'd have been further ahead of the runner-up at the line than Hewick was, but will we ever know for sure?
 
BMG was beaten a length and a half. He was stopped when Shish went. Make no mistake, that counts for a lot more than winning margin. Forget Shish!
 
Interestingly, IEF's closing par for the KS was also 104% but he went faster throughout.

They were about level going to the first but IEF had gone about 15 lengths clear passing the judge for the first time.

At one point he extended it to nearer 20 lengths before Shishkin took over in the KG and got it down to about eight lengths. IEF extended his lead over the KG field from two out to the line, even allowing for Hewick's finish. He was about 20 in front at the line having been about 12 ahead of Shishkin two out. Shishkin would only have had to stay on at the same pace to have 'won' by eight lengths.

(But I'm not advocating that that's what would have happened.)

I do think IEF is a bit of a monster. Should have been on the 'odds-on' thread.
 
RPRs go 168 - which is very high for a novice at this time of the year - for IEF and 173 for Hewick.

I haven't done my figures yet but I'd fancy IEF would beat him.
 
Frankel said:
BMG was beaten a length and a half. He was stopped when Shish went. Make no mistake, that counts for a lot more than winning margin. Forget Shish!
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I'm far from his biggest fan but Shishkin was definetely getting the upper hand and no way was Bravemansgame going to pass him. He already pulled out that little bit more be fore his slip up.

We saw it at Cheltenham Aintree and Ascot what happens when e gets into a fight....he always seems to find more and is one tough cookie

No doubt in my mind he would have gone very close to winning but to be fair to Hewick when they come with a wet sail there's never time to fight back.
 
Desert Orchid said:
RPRs go 168 - which is very high for a novice at this time of the year - for IEF and 173 for Hewick.

I haven't done my figures yet but I'd fancy IEF would beat him.
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I'll say he would...running backwards. It's similar to what Constitution hIll did in the Supreme.

King George Chase 5m 55.75s Kauto Star Novice Chase 5m 51.30s which is over 16 to 20 lengths faster as you say and he did it easily.
 
Tanlic said:
I'll say he would...running backwards. It's similar to what Constitution hIll did in the Supreme.

King George Chase 5m 55.75s Kauto Star Novice Chase 5m 51.30s which is over 16 to 20 lengths faster as you say and he did it easily.
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Yes, but to be honest I'm not one for hugely relying on times as experience over the years has taught me that they can mislead _ I did have an item published in the Raceform Update about 30 years ago which got the headline in the Letters page: 'Form is More Important than Time - but there were comments about how strong the pace was in the KG and how they were slowing down, allowing Hewick to catch them, which sectionals appear to confirm, yet IEF was going fast for 90% of the race and still covered the last four fences faster than Hewick (56.00s v 56.16, about a length, but remember where Hewick came from four fences out compared to the second and third) so it was a very serious performance by IEF.

I do hope he is the monster I think he is. We need out equine heroes.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Looked to me like Shishkin had BMG and Allaho beat, think he was just putting the race to bed....
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Personally think if Shishkin hadn’t slipped Hewick wouldn’t have got to the front three.

BMG was obviously inconvenienced but Allaho was also forced to take evasive action (although less obviously so) losing his momentum. He’s a big unit to get going again. He may well have been stopping anyway but that’s not the way it looked to me


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viking said:
Personally think if Shishkin hadn’t slipped Hewick wouldn’t have got to the front three.

BMG was obviously inconvenienced but Allaho was also forced to take evasive action (although less obviously so) losing his momentum. He’s a big unit to get going again. He may well have been stopping anyway but that’s not the way it looked to me
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I agree with this to the extent that no-one can know for sure and we all go with our personal biases.

RPRs go:
173 Hewick
172 Allaho, BMG, Shishkin

184 for GDC yesterday tells you all you need to know really.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, but to be honest I'm not one for hugely relying on times as experience over the years has taught me that they can mislead _ I did have an item published in the Raceform Update about 30 years ago which got the headline in the Letters page: 'Form is More Important than Time - but there were comments about how strong the pace was in the KG and how they were slowing down, allowing Hewick to catch them, which sectionals appear to confirm, yet IEF was going fast for 90% of the race and still covered the last four fences faster than Hewick (56.00s v 56.16, about a length, but remember where Hewick came from four fences out compared to the second and third) so it was a very serious performance by IEF.

I do hope he is the monster I think he is. We need out equine heroes.
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It wasn't just the time it was the fact he was never under any real pressure.

They only got close to him because JR have him a breather between the 4th last and 3rd last fence
which was hardly neccessary. That breather was fully 2 seconds slower than Shishkin took between the 2 fences,.

If he hadn't done that he may well have won by 15 length and clocked a 2 second faster time.

I think we definitely have a monster on our hands. Not sure about Cheltenham but there's nothing around will touch him in next years King George if he improves like you would expecy a young horse to do
 
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Yes, I'm hoping SR does a sectional analysis that shows that slower section by IEF.

It might just have been the case that the KG field went earlyish, as someone suggested above, and that allowed them to close the gap and at the same time effectively compromised their finish.

I just loved the easy way IEF took the fences and the scope he had over them. Reminded me a wee bit of Pendil as a novice but better. And I think we shouldn't under-estimate the part Reveley played in allowing the horse to use his stride and scope to get the others out of their comfort zone quite early in the race.

It isn't often I see jockeys carry out my favourite jockey instruction - maybe edgt will know which Irish trainer said it and to whom - "start off in front and keep improving your position".
 
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