King George VI Chase

Tanlic said:
Pricewise has a habit of throwing shyte at a wall until some sticks then boasting about how good a tipster he is.

I have very little respect for the handicapper ever since he kept Sprinter Sacre on 175 after beating Un Des Sceaux 15 kengths in his final race with 2 QMCC winners behind him.

Which brings me to Hewick.

He scraped home in the Galways plate off 155 beating the second by 1/2 length who was rated 148 and the handicapper put him up to 163 which makes absolutely no sense.

He may have beaten Bussleton at Listowel had he not fallen but he's won nothing since. He wins in the USA from a horse who lost his next 3 races which tells us nothing as we can't compare ours to theirs.

Gets absolutely trounced in the Gold Cup wins anothing race at Sandown then gets trounced again in his last 2 races.

Exactly what bit of form gives him the right to even enter the horse.......what gives him the right is the handicapper being so hard on the horse there's nowehere else for him to go

So Shark sends him here looking for luckies.

I'll be surprised if he is not tailed off.
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To be fair to TS himself, he doesn't boast about how good he is. He never has and probably never will. It's his editors who do the boasting for him, and the TV people when they tell us Pricewise tipped something.

As for the Galway Plate form, it's one of the biggest handicaps of the year, Flat or jumps, so is usually very strongly contended and probably the first six home are by definition ahead of their mark so an eight pounds rise seems acceptable.

I don't fancy him today myself either but he has a better chance than either Frodon or The Real Whacker so is entitled to be ahead of them in the betting and there are question marks over those that are ostensibly better than him.

It's not too dissimilar to Euro putting up Crambo for the race the other day because of doubts about the market leaders. It's a risk and reward thing and I don't think Hewick's turning up here is a mad idea. He should get some decent place money at worst and if one or two others underperform he could get more.

Fortune favours the brave and all that.
 
Desert Orchid said:
...
For good measure I've taken it in an ew double with the French raider at Aintree (1.05). Again the latter's French rating puts it miles clear and 8/1 with four places available strikes me as stupidly generous and will hopefully pay for Christmas and New Year :lol:
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In to 9/2 tops and generally shorter. Win or lose the price was plain wrong to start with.
 
Desert Orchid said:
As for the Galway Plate form, it's one of the biggest handicaps of the year, Flat or jumps, so is usually very strongly contended and probably the first six home are by definition ahead of their mark so an eight pounds rise seems acceptable.

I don't fancy him today myself either but he has a better chance than either Frodon or The Real Whacker…...
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Frodon I’ll give you, DO, but I can’t fathom such arbitrary dismissal of TRW, insofar as his chance relative to Hewick is concerned.

Can you articulate your reasons for this?

On my viewing of the race, Hewick has to be forgiven a fair bit more than RTW based on recent runs, and evoking a handicap run almost 18 months ago to prop his chances, seems something of a reach, imo - not least because he hasn’t been able to run remotely close to his adjusted mark since (the Sandown G2 being a dog-sh*it, end-of-season, affair full of geriatrics and hounds, imho).

RTW always needs his first run, and almost certainly needs further than the Paddy Power Gold Cup trip, as he’s effectively outstayed everything from off the front in his previous races around that distance. He jumps great and is likely still a progressive horse after only 4 chase runs.

I confess, I think he has a wildly-better chance than Hewick (confirmed no better than a good handicapper in my mind), so keen to understand what I might be missing. That’s a legit question, and not intended to poke any bears.
 
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To be honest, it's based on a somewhat cursory glance at my figures for the race:

[TABLE="width: 380"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]MON
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]BO
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bravemansgame
[/TD]
[TD]177
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]9/4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Allaho
[/TD]
[TD]176
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]7/4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Shishkin
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[TD][183]
[/TD]
[TD]9/2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hewick
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]12/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Frodon
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] The Real Whacker
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]p nov jw
[/TD]
[TD]9/1
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


I thought TRW had a very serious chance in the Mackeson but burned himself up and that's entirely forgivable but this race is a decent G1 and if the big three all run to form it could be a belter. Even allowing for TRW improving 10lbs from his novice season he'd struggle against them.
 
Fair enough, and I absolutely agree about the difficulty of TRWs task should any of the front three run to form. It was about his chance relative to Hewick I was really questioning.

It’s as interesting a King George as we’ve had since Vautour, Cue Card and Don Cossack took each other on. May the best horse win.
 
Desert Orchid said:
For good measure I've taken it in an ew double with the French raider at Aintree (1.05). Again the latter's French rating puts it miles clear and 8/1 with four places available strikes me as stupidly generous and will hopefully pay for Christmas and New Year :lol:
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In to 10/3 but never put in the race under exaggerated hold-up tactics off a modest pace. My goose was cooked before the last in the back straight. I wonder if they're prepping the filly for a handicap at the festival.
 
James Revely deserves a lot of prase for that ride.

The only reason the goy within shouting distance of Il Est Francais before the home turn is because he let the to save petrol

Once in the straight he immediately started to pull away again and it was never in any doubt.

We have seen the last of him in the UK.
 
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Well, I don’t know, I’ve seen some terrific horses in my seventy years of watching, but I don’t think I’ve seen one better than Constitution Hill. Time might prove that Il Est Francais is also destined to dine at the very top table. What an afternoon!!!
 
edgt said:
I see Shark Hanlon has entered Hewick for the race.
Ground dependant of course but he would make a proper race of it if back to form.
If he could book Bryony Frost it could bring a Festive Cheer to Boxing Day.
Imagine Shark and co hunting the wren that evening !
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Outstanding stuff, I took 42 on the machine on the back of this :D
 
Great result for the little horse...and I had Allaho in a double with Shishkin for the win.....but it’s still a good result!
 
I honestly thought Gavin was going to pull him up at one stage and then he started motoring....Would he have caught Shiskkin? we'll never know
 
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