King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2011

Harbinger

Harbinger

At the Start
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Mar 22, 2004
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Looks like it's turning into a fight between Rewilding, St Nicholas Abbey, and unbeaten Prix du Jockey Club winner Reliable Man. Workforce is still a possibility also.

7/4 St Nicholas Abbey
5/2 Rewilding
7/2 Workforce
10/1 Reliable Man

Rewilding looks the clear value if you're confident that he'll have recovered from the PoW. The narrative about him since his Leger flop is that he needs breaks between his races. That race came off a 25-day break; he'll go into the King George off a 38-day break.
 
Timeform Ratings of those quoted

St Nicholas Abbey 128
Rewilding 132
Workforce 133
Reliable Man 121p

Can only echo was has been said by Gareth and Melendez, Rewilding remains the clear value choice. Not sure it's as cut and dry that he needs to be fresh. His win ant Goodwood and third in the Derby were both career-best efforts at the time and came on the back of similar or shorter breaks than the tme between PoW and KG. I had a bet on Rewilding earlier in the week.
 
Should point out that Workforce is way bigger on Betfair - 7.6 - which must suggest he won't turn up. Even if he does, at that kind of price you can have a saver on him and still get effectively 2/1 on Rewilding.
 
Treasure Beach and Seville are entered but expected to go for the GP de Paris next week. Marksmanship (and Jan Vermeer) are presumably in there as potential pacemakers.
 
Not just that Colin, but Godolphin have Debussy in there to reprise his Prince of Wales role :)
 
It makes more sense for Godolphin to employ a pacemaker in this Ballydoyle. I'd fancy St Nicholas Abbey over Rewilding in a sprint, but Rewilding might have the edge in a true run race.
 
Is Reliable Man definitely going for this or is he going for the GP De Paris?

I know they said they wanted to go to the King George but until I see him out of the entries list for Longchamp, I wouldn't be certain.

Well done to David for putting Rewilding up at 7/2, was staggering in hindsight.
 
Reliable Man has been left in the GP de Paris on Thursday. Of course, nothing to stop any of the appropriately entered GP de Paris runners turning up at Ascot too.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Rewilding looks the clear value if you're confident that he'll have recovered from the PoW. The narrative about him since his Leger flop is that he needs breaks between his races.
Click to expand...

I think this theory is being over factored in his price. I'd be inclined to think a more mature 4yo is able to cope better than the growing animal he was last year. I remember Singspiel starting a ludicrous price for the Juddmonte in 97 because there was a general feeling that all his globe trotting as a 4yo, his visit to Dubai earlier in the year and his disappointing run in the King George (not really because he was 4th in an immense renewal) had taken it's toll. You've gotta go on the form - and that says Rewilding is a terrific price. I'm a fan of SNA and have backed him for the Arc, but Ascot is a track that might not suit him. I think he needs a long straight to get into top gear.
 
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Agree with what you say about Rewilding, Euro, but, unlike you, I think Ascot might suit St. Nic. He's drifted right in both his last two races on left handed tracks, and as well as being right handed, Ascot has an uphill finish. Just how short is the straight - close to 3f isn't it?

I like both horses, think they both have more to give, should be a good race. I'll go with St. Nic.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
Reliable Man has been left in the GP de Paris on Thursday.
Click to expand...

He has a very good chance, for me. With the possible exception of Pour Moi - and I'm not totally convinced about him - the three-year-olds to have run at Epsom and The Curragh look pretty ordinary to my eyes. Reliable Man is priced up third in the market behind Seville and Treasure Beach in the betting for Thursday's event. I'd have made him favourite.
 
25/1 currently according to the RP. Given the relative price to St Nic and what happened in the Coronation that could be worth a trade. I think Workforce will show up at Ascot though so i'd get in and get out quick.
 
I don't really see why he shouldn't, but have a feeling that he won't. They are probably laying the ground about the Midday prep for a reason.
 
"Rewilding is in great form and he goes for the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group One, Ascot, 12 furlongs, £1 million in prize money, July 23)."

According to Simon Crisford.
 
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