King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2011

Didn't Phil Bull demonstrate mathematically that the amount of ground lost by a horse hanging or just switching from one side to the other was often hugely overstated?
 
Pythagoras did.

If he drifted evenly by 20m over a period of 200m he would have lost 1m. Square root of (20 squared + 200 squared).
 
Last edited:
However, it's not just the geometry, is it?
Going full tilt in a straight line is one thing; pushing off to the side is another.
The energy put into forward momentum is lessened when a horse drifts.
 
Soary Stars said:
However, it's not just the geometry, is it?
Going full tilt in a straight line is one thing; pushing off to the side is another.
The energy put into forward momentum is lessened when a horse drifts.
Click to expand...
Depends on whether extra momentum is being lost - horses drifting across the track often have more momentum than they would if that movement was corrected from the saddle. Either way, Mordins "maths" is cringeworthy.
 
Soary Stars said:
Nick Mordin isn't too impressed with Nathaniel:

http://www.nickmordin.com/uk.htm

As to Workforce:
"For me, WORKFORCE (38) is the horse to take out of the King George. He looked sure to cruise past Nathaniel but then dived across the track. He ended up about twenty yards or over six lengths further across the track from his rival than when he began his challenge. Seeing that he only lost by two and three quarter lengths it's hard to argue against the idea that he would have been a clear cut winner had he kept straight.

I really liked the way that Workforce sustained his effort despite drifting so badly. But I'm not keen on buying the idea that he hung simply because he got cut into on the home turn. The fact is Workforce has now hung three of the four times he's run in fields of seven or less. What's more he has lost every time he's run in a field that small but won all four times he’s run in fields of eight or more.

I'm now inclined to think that Workforce needs a bit of cover in a race otherwise he tends to pull hard and hang. When he gets it he is quite some horse. As long as the ground doesn't come up too fast for him at Longchamp I have to give him a serious chance of pulling off the Arc double. However I wouldn't bet him ante-post right now. His most likely warm up for the Arc is the Prix Foy, a race that hasn't drawn a field bigger than six in nearly two decades. If my read of Workforce is right then he'll lose that race and likely drift to a very attractive price in the Arc betting soon after."
Click to expand...

[FONT=&quot]I don’t think we should be too critical of Nathaniel. After landing his maiden by nine lengths at the beginning of the season he was narrowly beaten by subsequent Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach in the Chester Vase before scoring convincingly in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot and following up in the King George beating Workforce and St Nicholas Abbey. The Galileo colt has not been out of the first two in six races, which includes half a length runner-up to Frankel on his debut.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]However, it is also clear that Workforce has run below his best (6lb below according to RPRs).[/FONT]
 
From the Guardian's daily racing blog (called Talking Horses!)

Who says that journalists aren't worth listening to? Although I didn't have space to insert it into my report of Sunday's victory for Dancing Rain in the German Oaks, trainer William Haggas wanted to make it clear that substantial credit for the success ought to go to systems and stats expert Nick Mordin.
After Dancing Rain's Epsom victory, Mordin wrote on his website: "If she were mine I'd be thinking long and hard about supplementing Dancing Rain for the Preis der Diana [German Oaks] at Dusseldorf on 7 August. The race is a Group One Classic worth a total of €400,000 (€230,000 to the winner) and there isn't a single entry from outside Germany.
"Dancing Rain would have a far easier time winning the German race than she would trying to beat Galikova and the older fillies and mares in the Prix Vermeille – or in the Yorkshire Oaks. Watch the Youtube video of Night Magic winning the Preis Der Diana and you'll see that it's a race that can very well be won from the front just like Dancing Rain won the Oaks."
 
Was certainly excellent placement from Haggas. Something we've come to expect from him over the years. She was 9lb clear of the field on Tf ratings and probably didn't have to improve at all.
 
Amazing, can't wait for Hamm to see this. Top Newmarket yard reading Mordin's blog and planning Oaks winner's campaigns around it!!
 
Top UK yard plundering easy foreign Group 1. Hardly the first time we've seen this in recent years. Another example of Mordin's 'originality'. If he could just form a line behind Godolphin, Jarvis, Botti, Johnston, .....

A real genius.
 
Back
Top