King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2011

More questions than answers after that race. I will need to see Nathaniel again before making judgement. I expect Workforce will be very difficult to beat in the Arc if he is ok after being struck into.
 
Chapman reporting on ATR that Workforce was struck into which explained his hanging . Bloody good run in the circumstances.

I wondered what Moore was doing at the time. But apparently Workforce was struck into quite badly and was hanging all the time into the stands rail. Watching the replay you can see that Moore has his whip in his left hand and is trying to correct him, but Workforce was struggling under the circumstances. I hope the effort of getting up for runner-up spot hasn't left its mark.
 
Sickening!

The sight of Rewilding running past the stands on three legs with the broken one flapping uselessly was a sight that will remain with me. I thought for a split second they might try to save him, but that option was never a realistic one.
 
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An utterly depressing race on so many levels. The only thing that made me smile about any of it was Buick hugging Nathaniel after he'd pulled him up. Obviously a huge huge day for him and a shame for him that it will be remembered, in the short-term at least, for what went on behind him.

The pace was slow. Maybe Godolphin thought that Rewilding was the best 10f horse in the race, so they decided to turn it into exactly that - a 10f race. Either way, the final time was poor - Aiken, the winner of the 3yo handicap over course and distance ran a time just over 7 lengths slower than Nathaniel, whilst carrying half a stone more. His new rating will be in the mid-80s.

Given the pace, it shouldn't be surprising that the horse given the most positive ride was able to win it. With Rewilding out of the picture and St Nicholas Abbey (predictably!) outpaced and too far back as they came off the home turn, it turned into a two horse race. And they're easier to win when the second horse hangs all the way across one of the widest courses in the country.
 
I made it very plain that i thought SNA was far too short and would not win and that Midday should have beaten him at Epsom on numerous occasions !
 
He'll beat Worforce in the Arc if they meet. The jockey was spooked by Rewilding's fall and started rowing away too soon.
 
That's a very tired comparison. His pedigree isn't nearly as stamina laden and he was the most inconvenienced by the pace on Saturday. He was also travelling best of all before the incident.
 
Neither will beat Meandre or Pour Moi if they turn up.

They are probably the 3yos with the best chance. There is strength in depth among the older horses though and I think one of those will take it this year. Don't write off Workforce he responded well while clearly suffering in the KG and will improve out of all measure with a fast pace.
 
I wondered what Moore was doing at the time. But apparently Workforce was struck into quite badly and was hanging all the time into the stands rail. Watching the replay you can see that Moore has his whip in his left hand and is trying to correct him, but Workforce was struggling under the circumstances. I hope the effort of getting up for runner-up spot hasn't left its mark.

Nick Mordin isn't too impressed with Nathaniel:

http://www.nickmordin.com/uk.htm

As to Workforce:
"For me, WORKFORCE (38) is the horse to take out of the King George. He looked sure to cruise past Nathaniel but then dived across the track. He ended up about twenty yards or over six lengths further across the track from his rival than when he began his challenge. Seeing that he only lost by two and three quarter lengths it's hard to argue against the idea that he would have been a clear cut winner had he kept straight.

I really liked the way that Workforce sustained his effort despite drifting so badly. But I'm not keen on buying the idea that he hung simply because he got cut into on the home turn. The fact is Workforce has now hung three of the four times he's run in fields of seven or less. What's more he has lost every time he's run in a field that small but won all four times he’s run in fields of eight or more.

I'm now inclined to think that Workforce needs a bit of cover in a race otherwise he tends to pull hard and hang. When he gets it he is quite some horse. As long as the ground doesn't come up too fast for him at Longchamp I have to give him a serious chance of pulling off the Arc double. However I wouldn't bet him ante-post right now. His most likely warm up for the Arc is the Prix Foy, a race that hasn't drawn a field bigger than six in nearly two decades. If my read of Workforce is right then he'll lose that race and likely drift to a very attractive price in the Arc betting soon after."
 
" He ended up about twenty yards or over six lengths further across the track from his rival than when he began his challenge. Seeing that he only lost by two and three quarter lengths it's hard to argue against the idea that he would have been a clear cut winner had he kept straight."
This unbelievable bollocks is exactly why I can't abide Mordin - laughable logic.
 
Well, the horse isn't getting the cover he seems to think he needs in order to win, so that it's hardly a valid point to keep arguing that he would be a shoo-in if only other horses were bustling around him. If the trainer and the rider know the horse is a habitual hanger, then why aren't they correcting this trait better? He may be hanging because he's tired himself out (see "he tends to pull hard") and therefore his speed is dwindling anyway, which still means he wouldn't have caught the one in front and passed him. You aren't likely to be getting much cover in the final stages of any race, so once he's in the clear, if there isn't something else battling away either side of him, he will hang.

Seems the horse has created two habits for himself, uncorrected or uncorrectable: pulls too hard against himself and expends energy doing so; tires in the latter stages and drifts away. You might as well say run him against the rail, which will keep his eye in on a line, and forget about cover which may or may not oblige. If he really does need some sort of object against which to rely for concentration, at least the inside rail is always there.
 
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