King George

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At the Start
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May 2, 2003
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Ireland
Cutting up badlly…only 8 left in it.

Kauto Star
Exotic Dancer
Taranis
Hi Cloy
Our Vic
Racing Demon
Lord Jay Jay
My Way De Solzen
 
FWIW I've taken some of the (just shy of) 8/1 available on Betfair for Exotic Dancer. It feels big to me, although on working out the percentages, it works out as a 17% chance that ED can beat Kauto, which probably isn't too far off the mark, especially given KS tendency to clatter the odd one.

Of course, such a calculation removes the possibility entirely that something else might win! :D Step up Taranis.
 
Originally posted by clivex@Dec 21 2007, 11:35 AM
...but the stable form is awful
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In races at this level, my belief is that stable form has feck all to do with it. Admittedly I haven't pursued a serious investigation on it, but my perception is that there are as many cases of horses performing to their normal level in Grade 1's when the stable is out of form as don't. Often resulting in juicy prices due to punters fears about stable form.
 
Quite remarkable that this is Our Vic's first run in a King George. A fast three miles is exactly what I thought he needs.
 
I took 20/1 on Our vic
stable going very well and this horse must be caught fresh, not so far on ratings behind the Haydock form and with ED stable out of form and better at Cheltenham and with Kauto not being a so sure jumper, 20/1 looks well worth the risk.
 
Thats the way I am looking at it as well. On his day he looks capable of throwing in a mid 170s type performance and it any of the others run below form etc.
 
I'll definately be doing an e/w on Our Vic, always been one of my favourite horses and can be fustrating sometimes...but not first time out, I'm almost tempted to make it a large place bet, only if it's 8 runners though...
 
Looks like there will be only 7 runners which is a real b*gger as there are several nice e/w chances, esp Taranis and Our Vic.

Hen seems to have got Racing Demon a bit more sorted and it will be interesting to see how he runs, the he was still jumping right over the last few at Huntingdon
 
I must be missing something here. So far, the closest that Our Vic has got to Exotic Dancer is 18l. Admittedly that was giving him 4lbs but on the next occasion they met he could only get to within 25l of him, at levels. How on earth can the beast find 25l+ improvement on Exotic Dancer, nevermind trouble Kauto Star or even My Way De Solzen?

So the yard is in good form. A selling plater is still a selling plater, just because its trainer is firing in winners doesn't make it capable of winning a Guineas. Same goes here - the best Our Vic can hope for is 4th, and I can see him getting run out of that as well.
 
So far, the closest that Our Vic has got to Exotic Dancer is 18l.
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No one suggests Our Vic is a consistent performer...are you seriously suggesting that was the same Our Vic that would the race at Weatherby last year? On his day he is a very good horse...not as good as KS or ED but if one of them has a slip up or under perform he is bang in there. King George looks a race made for him and I am surprised he has not ran in it before...also he often likes to race handy and not get bullied...in a small field he should be able to sit in behind Ollie Magern.
 
I'm not saying OV is a consistent performer - surely that point of your own makes him even less of a punting prospect? Not least when there's a high possibility of there being only two places up for grabs.

Kauto Star, Exotic Dancer, My Way De Solzen and Racing Demon should all finish in front of him IMO - Taranis has a good chance of beating him too.

I'm lost with the Ollie Magern reference - unless it's a p*ss take which has flown over my head! - as the horse is no longer amongst the entries!
 
Our Vic at those odds (hell, any odds!) looks far from excellent. Hi Cloy at least is a far from definite runner so there is a good possibility of there being only 7 runners.

Unless of course all bar one of Kauto Star, Exotic Dancer, My Way De Solzen and Racing Demon fall that is (in short, that only half the field complete and Our Vic does)
 
It is possibly worth reminding you all that ante-post bets are settled on the e/w terms available when the bet is struck, regardless of the number of actual runners - so it is a good idea to get your cheeky each way bets on at 1/5 1-2-3 (or 1/4 1-2-3 with the sponsors) before the bookies take down thier ante-post books tommorrow morning prior to the final decs being made (with or without Hi Cloy).

Shads, you are as wrong now about Our Vic as you were when you spouted that guff about him being just a handicapper prior to his Charlie Hall win. He is a class act and if (and I accept that it is quite a big "if") he comes back to his best, he is the 3rd best of these. With the Pipe yard in such great form, it's no surprise that the each way sharks have hoovered-up all the 20s and 25s.

Regarding that 18 length defeat by Exotic Dancer, it was patently obvious that Our Vic didn't stay 3m2f in heavy ground at Cheltenham. While it's difficult to imagine him turning the tables on an in-form Exotic Dancer, the conditions at Kempton will suit him much better.
 
The Ollie Magern reference was a genuine error...thought he was still in there. Even better news for Our Vic...I would imagine he will get a handy lead now.

If Our Vic was 8-9/1 shot I wouldnt look at him but 20/1 is a very fair price e/w first time out at what looks his perfect trip on this type of track.
 
I certainly wouldn't want to be laying Our Vic each way at 20s-on his day he is a good horse and they haven't abused him.
I have a niggling doubt about Kauto this season and if it wasn't for the form of Jonjo's horses I would be having a max e/w bet on Exotic Dancer.I expect Taranis to blow out completely-a place lay in my opinion.My Way de Solzen is interesting but I would like to see the market speak for him.
 
I agree with comments here about Our Vic. On a going day he's got just as much ability as Racing Demon, Taranis & My Way De Solzen and so with that in mind he's a decent price. He also goes well fresh and like others here I'm surprised he's never ran in the King George before as the 3m trip & flat track should suit him very well.
Obviously, Kauto Star & Exotic Dancer are a class apart and should fill the first two places but it wouldn't surprise me to see OV run a big race and take advantage if either ED & KS under perform.
 
Our vic is down to 14/1 on PP, 17.5 on Betfair. But he's 3.35 and going out for a place on BF
 
Personally wouldn't touch Our Vic, on last years Cheltenham evidence there is no known reason why he should beat Taranis.

For me Taranis is the knocking place bet this morning prior to 10 am.
 
Originally posted by chrisbeekracing@Dec 23 2007, 10:14 AM
Personally wouldn't touch Our Vic, on last years Cheltenham evidence there is no known reason why he should beat Taranis.
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The evidence from Cheltenham last year is that Our Vic (hampered in-running and giving 5lbs) was beaten by a diminishing neck by Taranis.
 
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