Remember Danedream received 11lb WFA from the likes of St Nicholas Abbey in the Arc (a ridiculous amount at that time of year), beating SNA by 5½ lengths with everything falling right for her. She receives just 3lb from the same horse in the KG. Also the general level of her form is the best part of a stone below her Arc rating (which looks inflated). I can’t have her at all. She’s beat by a handful of them for me. I’ve more time for the Jap 3yo than her.
King George
- Thread starter davidjohnson
- Start date
Remember Danedream received 11lb WFA from the likes of St Nicholas Abbey in the Arc (a ridiculous amount at that time of year), beating SNA by 5½ lengths with everything falling right for her. She receives just 3lb from the same horse in the KG. Also the general level of her form is the best part of a stone below her Arc rating (which looks inflated). I can’t have her at all. She’s beat by a handful of them for me. I’ve more time for the Jap 3yo than her.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Steve, after the Arc last year, I produced this stat.
How does this fit in with your wfa theory?
It depends how much of a concession you want to give the 3yos. You can give them 20lb if you like (but don't be surprised if even more 3yos win in that circumstance). Just don’t pretend it’s a championship race if you do. She loses the 8lb wfa she had with SNA at the end of last season. Let’s see if she can beat him 5½ lengths again with just her filly allowance.
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Not really a theory is it? Since 1990, 17 three-year-olds have won the Arc. It remains to be seen how she does with just her 3lb allowance rather than 11lb. She won’t be winning 5½ lengths and I’d be disappointed if she’s good enough on what we’ve seen to win at all.
That's debatable. I don't see her as being as good as they say she is when the general level of her form doesn't tell the same story.
But that aside, the question is how well will she compete now against similar horses with a reduced concession? I won't be too surprised to see her unplaced.
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I don't see that. If she runs to the rating they say she did she could be placed I suppose. Then again the general level of her form is the best part of a stone below that level so I won't be betting on it. Her price perhaps reflects her chance, but for me is no value whatsoever.
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Bar the Bull
At the Start
If there was no such thing as WFA, 3yo's wouldn't run in the Arc, the Champion Stakes, the Eclipse, etc.
I think it would be a bad thing.
I think it would be a bad thing.
I'm not against WFA. It's how you managed it throughout the season as the 3yos catch up that is crucial.
However, I would like to see at least one true championship race where the best horse wins regardless of age or sex. At the moment we haven't got that.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
If we got that, there wouldn't be any 3yo horses entered.
Maybe not (unless they were truly exceptional). But the point of a championship race race is not to necessarily include 3yos it is to show us who the best horse in training is on level terms, regardless of age or sex.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
No it's not.
The point of championship races is to show us who is the best horse in training, with allowances for age and sex.
That's not a true championship race though, it's simply another form of handicapping and does not occur in other sports. We don't give teenagers a concession when running against Bolt for the gold medal.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
It is in horse racing.
davidjohnson
At the Start
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Top work Steve, another Group 1 race thread turned into a boring rant about WFA.
To complete the groundhog day, why don't I tell you Timeform will rate the winner slightly higher than the BHA and RP.
To complete the groundhog day, why don't I tell you Timeform will rate the winner slightly higher than the BHA and RP.
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Not by me David. Simply answering suny and BTB.
All I am saying here is that I'm opposing Danedream. So many on here fancy her, but I don't. So forgive me for saying just that.
If Timeform want to rate her the highest I'm not surprised but would take issue with it. Her general level of form is the best part of a stone below her Arc rating (which I believe to be inflated anyway).
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But I would like to see at least one race that was a true championship.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Let's just be clear on this. 141 is (I assume) their rating adjusted to 10st.
On that basis, I would expect them to have Sea Moon and Nathaniel in the high 130s.
You're trying to make them look ridiculous.
On that basis, I would expect them to have Sea Moon and Nathaniel in the high 130s.
You're trying to make them look ridiculous.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I think the current Arc does a pretty good job, with its current conditions of being that race.
Harbinger
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That's her weight-adjusted rating (to 10st). She's rated 131.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Snap, Gareth.
uncle goober
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This would be eyebrow raising in itself regardless of what followed. Usually disappointment.