That's right. I mentioned this to CL at the time.
King George
- Thread starter davidjohnson
- Start date
That's right. I mentioned this to CL at the time.
Well it's all we've got so it has to do. But with 17 three-year-olds winning the race since 1990 you'd have to question whether that's good enough, considering that 3yos are below their peak physically.
No I'm not. It's the rating that has be published and I've questioned this much myself to CL. The number it is still higher than the market leaders which has to look odd considering SNA has an 8lb pull.
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Bar the Bull
At the Start
Timeform rate Danedream 141.
We understand it suny. We also have the right to question it.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
Of the last 11 champion European 12f 3yo's, only four have been kept in training as 4yo's.
It is little wonder that older horses don't have a good Arc record. Most of the good ones are having fun in the breeding shed.
It is little wonder that older horses don't have a good Arc record. Most of the good ones are having fun in the breeding shed.
This may be so. It doesn't also mean that revision isn't needed. Their is limited incentive for a good 3yo to stay in training if it has give away so much to the next generation of 3yos in top races.
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Bar the Bull
At the Start
I think if you are throwing about figures (and ignoring mine about average finishing positions of 4yo horses being lower than 3yo horses) it is important to understand why your statistic doesn't tell the full story.
Are you talking about revision of the wfa scale for the Arc? Or abolition of it? You seem to be suggesting both in different posts.
Are you talking about revision of the wfa scale for the Arc? Or abolition of it? You seem to be suggesting both in different posts.
I’m not ignoring your figures I just don’t believe they tell us very much. If you take a selection such as this divided by age group of the best of those in training the likelihood is that the averages will be similar. They will conform to the mean. This still doesn’t get away from the fact that the 3yos are handed a concession that is too great at this time of year.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
And your evidence to back that up is simply the # of winners since 1990 (assume you are picking that year because Carroll House won it as an older horse the prvious year)????
Even though your data is skewed by the fact that better horses are usually not kept in training past three.
You ignore my data, by saying it "conforms to the mean". But even if it did, it wouldn't explain why 3yo's perform worse on average.
I want to be clear, are you suggesting a revision of the wfa scale for the Arc? Or abolition of it? As I said above, you seem to be suggesting both depending on which post I read.
Yes. I don't think those averages you put up tell us much. We'll see though if she beats SNA by 5½ lengths again you may be right.
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Bar the Bull
At the Start
I don't think she will win. I think her performance was a freak that is unlikely to be repeated.
All I want to see is at least one true championship race. I'm not against leaving the Arc alone or indeed any race in which you want to give the 3yos a concession. My intention here was not to get into a full WFA discussion, but simply to oppose Danedream.
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That's pretty much my view.
Harbinger
At the Start
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2004
- Messages
- 11,282
Because the comparative performance of a specific 4yo and a specific 5yo in a single race at Ascot will prove whether the WFA scale favours 3yos in the Arc.
Well no it's not a reliable sample is it. But the scale takes away her 8lbs because she should have improved about the same in the interim. We'll get an idea as to whether that is so on Saturday.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
SNA was sacrificed for SYT in the Arc.
As I may have pointed out in the past, 3yos being prepared better for the race is as big a factor as wfa in their Arc dominance
As I may have pointed out in the past, 3yos being prepared better for the race is as big a factor as wfa in their Arc dominance
Harbinger
At the Start
- Joined
- Mar 22, 2004
- Messages
- 11,282
We won't get an idea at all. Even if she beats him the same down to the pound, it'll likely be mostly a coincidence.
As for reliable samples, a sample of winners is inherently biased, as is picking and choosing when to start and stop counting.
As for reliable samples, a sample of winners is inherently biased, as is picking and choosing when to start and stop counting.
Yes, an improving 3yo that is aimed at the race will hold a big advantage. Which is why I fancy Valyra (mentioned earlier) more than Danedream this time.
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It may be coincidence. It may also prove something.
On The Bridle
At the Start
I would much more easliy forgive Danedream her most recent run that consider the Arc a freak result...10/1 completely underrates her chances on Saturday
If they all line up at best I'd say 10/1 perhaps reflects her chance, but like I've said represents no value whatsoever for me. There is a good deal of strength in depth here as well as being high class.
You can get Reliable Man or Deep Brillante at twice her odds and I expect those two to finish upsides her without being good enough to win.
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Bar the Bull
At the Start
There are two other circa 12f Group races run in October. In both the St. Simon Stakes and the Cumberland Lodge Stakes, 3yo horse receive 7lb from older horses.
2 out of the last 10 Cumberland Lodge Stakes have been won by 3yo horses.
4 out of the last 10 St. Simon Stakes have been won by 3yo horses.
As I say, 7lb weight differential in these races.
2 out of the last 10 Cumberland Lodge Stakes have been won by 3yo horses.
4 out of the last 10 St. Simon Stakes have been won by 3yo horses.
As I say, 7lb weight differential in these races.