King George

Zenyatta said:
Had to take a bit of the 3/1 on Nathaniel. I can't understand why he isn't favourite.
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he is on betfair now. sea moon & sna drifted.

bookies not quite caught up yet. i think they will and i think nathaniel will go off fave.
 
Euronymous said:
Sea Moon has the better form over the course and distance and there is only two weeks between the Eclipse and King George this year.
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This is a total red herring for me, horses can easily run off 2 week gaps to their best, especially one trained by Gosden. This line of thinking is keeping his price artificially high for me and I suspect by Saturday, the market will have corrected itself and he'll be favourite.

Deep Brillante is no worse than say a Main Sequence and what price would he be for this? 7/1? 20/1 is massive for a progressive three year old.

I'd be backing these two at this stage but Danedream is interesting at around 10/1. Steve, not nitpicking but if you think 10s is the right price, how can she then also be "no value whatsoever"? If 10s is the right price then 12s would be value?
 
I'm really not getting the fuss about Nathaniel. It was a nice run in the Eclipse but talk of him being the obvious favourite are hugely wide of the mark. The fact remains that he didn't have a whole lot to beat at Sandown and last year's KG was one of the worst ever.
 
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Sea Moon was better than the bare result last time out and has a similar profile to Harbinger. I make him a 7/4 shot for this.

Nathaniel won a poor renewal last year but is still the main danger. May have been overrated in the Eclipse. A 3L beating of Twice Over aint all that.

St Nic. On all known form going right handed he should be about 6/1. Price he is because of Ballydoyle.

Dunaden. Each way chance with a decent jockey. 5s is skinny.

Danedream. Priced about right at 10s. Couldn't back her.

Reliable Man would be my other bet each way if I wasn't all in on Stoute's horse. Ran well but was too conservatively ridden in the POW. His run there doesn't give him a lot to find with Nathaniel but he is five times the price.
 
I wouldn't be hanging my hat on the similar profile to Harbinger - couldn't back a Stoute horse at the moment even though I do think Sea Moon should be favourite.
 
Euronymous said:
The fact remains that he didn't have a whole lot to beat at Sandown and last year's KG was one of the worst ever.
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I really disagree about both states Euro.

I think Stoute is doing very well with his older horses ( no surprise there as that's his biggest attribute as a trainer ) considering he only has 7 in training.

I think Nathaniel is the best horse but wouldn't surprise me if Sea Moon runs the race of his life on Saturday. Cracking race.
 
Euronymous said:
And that's the main thing. I was scathing about the Eclipse because Camelot and Frankel were absent but this is a cracking renewal.
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I don't disagree, but it's interesting that there is no meaningful 3-y-o challenge from the Europeans. Have we accepted that the King George is no longer a race to see the generations take each other on, and that we are happy to wait until later in the season.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Steve, not nitpicking but if you think 10s is the right price, how can she then also be "no value whatsoever"? If 10s is the right price then 12s would be value?
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I'm giving her the benefit of the doubt. I said 10s was perhaps her price (i.e. allowing for being too harsh on her), but it's not a price that I would be interested in and for me represents no value.
 
davidjohnson said:
I don't disagree, but it's interesting that there is no meaningful 3-y-o challenge from the Europeans. Have we accepted that the King George is no longer a race to see the generations take each other on, and that we are happy to wait until later in the season.
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There’s no European 3yo challenge full stop. Although the Japanese 3yo Deep Brillante could go well.

Like we've said the good 3yos are probably better off waiting for end of season Group 1s when the 3yos close the gap on the older horses and still have a good concession in terms of weight received.
 
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Steve, do you have any convincing evidence to support your weight for age theory? You seem very confident that you're right so assume that you have some data to support that conclusion. I'd be interested to see it because I think it's an interesting area.
 
And while you are at it, Steve, do you mind telling me whether you think WFA should be:

- changed for all races
- abolished for all races
- kept the same but abolished for one or two Group 1 races
- changed for all races, but abolished for one or two Group 1 races.
 
Steve has in his mind that a championship race is only that if all horses carry the same weight..if they don't then its not a championship race...and yet we have managed for how long without such a race?

The problem with using just a few years of the Arc is that it isn't enough of a sample size imo

since 1945 ...41 3yo's have won the Arc from 67 runnings...61%

is this too many?...i doubt it seeing as the Arc is a MAJOR target for the BEST of that classic generation...whereas that can't be said of 4yo+..who will not be the best of their generation

so you have two groups of horses..3yo's..the best one or two of them..and older horses..usually stripped of the best

is it surprising that 3yo's win it 61% of the time?
 
I think SNA goes better left handed and market not a positive
NAthaniel, only 2 weeks after a hard race,needs softer and the fact Eclipse was his first run in the season suggest he has had problems
SEa Moon won well the HArdwicke but lacked the speed for the St Leger and the BC Turf, too short

so the 2 to concentrate on are japanese horse and Danedream
Deep Impact son is an unknown and could be anything
but the one at the prices is GErman fillie
owner has Orfevre for the Arc and I dont think they will be travelling to England if she is not fit enough, she has the best form in the race and is the one at the prices
 
EC1 said:
forgot to add...steve..why don't 3yo's win the Melbourne Cup with the big wfa advantage they have?..last 3yo winner was 1941
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In Aus july 1st is the age holiday as is jan 1 Northern hemisphere so like asking why the last 3yo Ascot Gold Cup winning 3yo was ? St Simon? 1885 despite big wfa advantage. I know I m not Steve by the way.
 
back to the Arc and Steves wfa affair
what he is saying is
his beloved Montjeu, Lammtarra, Dalakhani, Sea The Stars,Zarkava,Hurricane Run and Dancing Brave were not true champions, all of them would have been beaten without it by ECP,FC,Mubtaker, YOumi, Westerner and Tryptich,

all of them would not have won with that supposed bad wfa
 
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