Kingman

He was a big talking horse this morning. His sire does bode well for a 3yo career.
 
Very impressive , looks a very serious prospect,
Very unusual to see in june 2 such a good prospects like this one and coventry winner
 
dis horse has everyting, the speed boys are ravin about him, pedigree boys and the conformation lads, the visual performans was epic too.

backed him for 2000 guineas for £15/
 
EC1 said:
solid Group class speed figure

30lb better than an average Newmarket maiden race winner..with wfa added something like a 117 horse...first time out...monster
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I agree. My figure, also including wfa, is 116 and that's making some fairly conservative assumptions. It wouldn't be ridiculous to go as high as 120.
 
Gus/EC

How high do you go on the winner of the 2-y-o listed sprint? Slight concern how many of the other races were run at a true gallop.

Whatever the overall speed fig, his closing 2f sectional suggests scope for rating him 5/6 lb better than bare form.

No doubt in my mind he's a pattern horse. Surprised by Gosden's suggestion of RP rather than Dewhurst type. Wouldn't be confident he'll get much further than 1m at 3.
 
Fig Roll 101 on my figures. The other two races on the straight course were clearly steadily-run.
 
Cheers Gus.

Given the bunched finish, personally I'd have reservations about going quite as high as that on the fillies race, but it does explain the discrepancy between our thinking.
 
I'd often be some way apart from the Timeform figures, DJ, and I speak as someone who has Computer Timefigure annuals going back to the mid-seventies. I've had a lot of success over the years - although considerably less so recently - backing horses ante-post for the classics where they've put up smart time performances first time out (or, at a push, second time) and I've no doubt Kingman's figure was very good indeed. Time was you'd have got 25s or even 33s for next year but I don't think he was ever bigger than 16s after the race on Saturday, was he? I didn't even get that as I recorded the racing on Saturday and caught up with it in the evening by which time he was 14/1. Had to have a bit on, though.

Agree about the Dewhurst. He's a miler in the making and I'd rather see him stay at 7f at two.
 
davidjohnson said:
Cheers Gus.

Given the bunched finish, personally I'd have reservations about going quite as high as that on the fillies race, but it does explain the discrepancy between our thinking.
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i got 101 for Fig Role as well. I agree it was a bunched finish but a 101 isn't a high figure for a listed class female..its also possible that a lot of this years 2yo's are pretty much of a muchness up to press...nothing that outstanding on the clock since beginning of season...it was same with that 2yo race at Ascot...looked a good figure but again a bunch finish
 
Thanks Gus

Certainly wasn't seeing it as a right/wrong way. I don't actually complie speed figures myself, but do like to use others' to form part of the assessment.

Form wise, I've gone more conservatively than either you or EC for the fillies race in the low 90s. Happier putting it up rather than pulling it down if needs be. Would expect a Queen Mary winner in the 105-110 bracket so disagree slightly with you EC that 100+ for fillies listed isn't pretty punchy.

Regarding Kingsman, have him a sectional upgrade on top of bare form and time of 101 so he's rated 106P at present.
 
John Gosden has yet to train a winner of a Newmarket Guineas despite having the best horse on two or three occasions.
 
Tweet by James Willoughby

Kingman gets Timeform rating of 106P on debut. Time equally superb. 2L quicker over last 2f than G3 Criterion for elders.
 
I've managed to do some rough timings for the two 2yo races from 2 out...after doing this i think its fair to say that traditional speed figures will over rate both horses as there wasn't a true run race on the whole card...it happens

the finishing %'s were 105% for Kingman & 107% for Fig Roll..the ideal figure for even pace would be in the 98-100 region

neither horse can have recorded a truly fast figure after looking at those %'s
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Tweet by James Willoughby

Kingman gets Timeform rating of 106P on debut. Time equally superb. 2L quicker over last 2f than G3 Criterion for elders.
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i didn't realise that there were official sectionals for that meeting..i can't record the last 2f for Producers race as you don't see the width of the course as you do with the two 2yo races
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Tweet by James Willoughby

2L quicker over last 2f than G3 Criterion for elders.
Click to expand...

I think this could be a little misleading..i've managed to time the first 3f of both 7f races and they went 1.2 seconds quicker in Producers race which means they would naturally be slowing more later..yes they are older horses but they went 8 lengths faster in the first 3f than in Kingman's race...and even Producers race wasn't evenly run

from a speed figure point of view its very difficult to rate these races accurately as you have no race on the card that was evenly run to benchmark from
 
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sunybay said:
You dont need speed figures to see this is a group 1 horse.
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i didn't say you did...what i said was that relying on one of the other races being truly run isn't possible on this occasion so my own figures and probably many others aren't truly representing his ability just on the clock...they will be over rating him on that particular run due to every race being slowly run

they went slow early..which has exaggerated his superiority visually as well.

i hope he is a G1 horse..but visually it may...may... be misleading due the early crawl
 
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No sectionals EC. I had the finishing speed as slightly slower than that, recording 23.3 sec for Kingman last 2f, but wasn't completely happy with the camerawork, and admit it is an estimation.
 
EC1 said:
i didn't say you did...what i said was that relying on one of the other races being truly run isn't possible on this occasion so my own figures and probably many others aren't truly representing his ability just on the clock...they will be over rating him on that particular run due to every race being slowly run

they went slow early..which has exaggerated his superiority visually as well.

i hope he is a G1 horse..but visually it may...may... be misleading due the early crawl
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Hoy do You count the undulations of the course to use those %?
 
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