Kingman

We should have a thread on horses that should be followed on the basis of sectionals (possibly this one?).

I tend to use sectionals on a relative rather than absolute basis. That is, I'd rather use them to identify horses that have run well against a pace bias than assign each horse a revised speedfigure adjusted for sectionals. I just don't have enough time to create sectional pars for each track and class (which I'm convinced you need).*

*Question for EC: I haven't done anything in-depth, but do you really think the sectional % pars for sprints at say Wolverhampton and Lingfield should be the same? From my experience last winter (blame the long nights...) timing both, they are surprisingly far apart. 100% at Lingfield was a soundly-run race, whereas at Wolves it was fairly steadily-run affair I found.
 
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trackside528 said:
We should have a thread on horses that should be followed on the basis of sectionals (possibly this one?).

I tend to use sectionals on a relative rather than absolute basis. That is, I'd rather use them to identify horses that have run well against a pace bias than assign each horse a revised speedfigure adjusted for sectionals. I just don't have enough time to create sectional pars for each track and class (which I'm convinced you need).*

*Question for EC: I haven't done anything in-depth, but do you really think the sectional % pars for sprints at say Wolverhampton and Lingfield should be the same? From my experience last winter (blame the long nights...) timing both, they are surprisingly far apart. 100% at Lingfield was a soundly-run race, whereas at Wolves it was fairly steadily-run affair I found.
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the median of all sprint races at Lingfield = 101.4%
the median of all sprint races at Wolves = 99.4%

wolves from a smaller sample
 
For what it's worth, Adhwaa - second to Kingman at Newmarket - went in at Donny last night. Only scrambled in, mind.
 
Kingman is now Guineas favourite as a result of War Command's defeat in Ireland yesterday.

Both the second and third in Kingman's maiden have won since without looking anything out of the ordinary. If you've backed him for the Guineas - and I have - you'd be neither encouraged nor discouraged, I'd say.

One horse whose form has been boosted is Berkshire. Bunker and Ihtimal both won good races at the weekend and the Chesham form generally looks very sound indeed. He's available at 20/1 for the Guineas in only a couple of places now and that's likely to go in the near future.
 
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Just one major concern. I find it hard to back Paul Cole horse, never mind one that he has got to keep sound all winter!
 
I suppose - though you never know, Appleby might go one better than Cole, Bin Suroor and Al Zarooni and get one to a classic ;)
 
Time aside, which isn't the most trustworthy ways of finding top class horse, the form of the race Kingman won was very ordinary.

Everything in that race bar the winner was goosed 2 1/2 furlongs out having seemingly gone a fair clip.

Nice horse though but he'd have to be doing the same thing against much better animals before I'd be in his camp for the Guineas.

As Gus mentions Berkshires form looks rock solid he won easily from Bunker and Ihtimal. Considering Adhwaa who fished 2nd to Kingman was kicked well into touch by Ihitmal Kingman would have to improve a fair bit to be bothering Berkshire.

I think it's fair to be saying if Berkshire was trained by AOB, Gosden or som in fashoion trainer he would be clear fav for the Guineas.

The fact he's trained by Paul Cole may put many off but he's enjoying the best strike rate he's had in 12 years. The man trained generous and trainers like Paul Cole are as good as any when they get the right horse and this horse might just be the one that puts him back on the map.

I thought he was really impressive at Ascot and unlike Kingman he was beating some very talented horses
 
I calculate Sudirman's time at the Curragh on Sunday at 123, the best by any juvenile so far. On pedigree, he looks about 50-50 to stay a mile. War Command didn't look the same horse as at Royal Ascot but it might be 6f is on the sharp side for him now so he wouldn't be one to write off just yet.
 
Tanlic said:
Time aside, which isn't the most trustworthy ways of finding top class horse,
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in a true run race..yes it is actually
Tanlic said:
Everything in that race bar the winner was goosed 2 1/2 furlongs out having seemingly gone a fair clip.
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they didn't go a fair clip though, the finishing % tells you that not one race on the whole card was run too fast or even pace..this was already discussed on page 1
 
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Looks like a very ordinary Group 3 with no other entry in the Guineas. Not a bad thing to be having another easy race as a learning curve but won't be telling us much even if he hacks up
 
Tanlic said:
Looks like a very ordinary Group 3 with no other entry in the Guineas. Not a bad thing to be having another easy race as a learning curve but won't be telling us much even if he hacks up
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I disagree. If the Godolphin pair give their running on Saturday and Kingman "hacks up" or even beats them decisively, he'll prove himself a high-class colt.
 
I disagree both Godolphin horses wud struggle to win carrying 10st in a 0-80 nursery
 
Indeed. Difficult to draw any firm conclusions given the way it panned out, but the way he made ground on the bridle as the gallop quickened was visually impressive.

He has an aura about him that only very classy horses have.
 
gus said:
Impressive enough, to my eyes.
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Indeed. Although the expectation of him set against his ante-post prices means plenty will be underwhelmed. Quickened nicely off slowish pace and value for an extra couple of lengths.

Glad to see Gosden now thinking sticking to 7f rather than RP Trophy chat like after debut. Looked very speedy yesterday and would have concerns about him staying beyond 1m next year.
 
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