Kingman

EC
I have great respect for your speed figures.

What I say is seeing the normal level of this course races,
The pedigree, first time out, trainer,owner and phisical scope,
I think is a proper horse.
 
Suny

My initial speed figures were way out..and i'll bet those of many other people would show a very fast time...its only knowing what the finishing speed is that shows that no race on the cardwas truly run.

Kingman's race just visually looks slow earlyand was ...even the other 7f race visually looks slow early...and that was a fair bit faster early than Kingmans race

they are only rough timings but they tell me that my initial speed figure is way out...looking at my AW figs...a 107% finishing effort would mean that Fig Rolls race alone would be about 20lb shy of what you would expect for that level of race...which would make Kingman something like a 96 incl wfa...based on overall time

I've read on other forums that many have given Kingman a large speed figure..but imo its false due to the assumption that at least one other race was evenly run..none were.

Sometimes you do get meetings with no evenly run races..when it happens then all the races on that card will be over rated.

It may be he is a worldbeater...but on the clock on this run...he does not have a large figure as it first looks.
 
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2:20 Fig Roll 6f 1m 11.62s
11.94s +1.42s
+0.24s 0.08s/f 80
94 Good Good

2:55 Lost In The Moment 1m4f 2m 28.93s
12.41s +2.43s
+0.2s 0.08s/f 69
112 Good Good

3:30 Producer 7f 1m 23.09s
11.87s +0.09s
+0.01s 0.08s/f 93
114 Good Good

4:05 Nabucco 1m2f 2m 3.89s
12.39s +2.39s
+0.24s 0.08s/f 70
101 Good Good

4:35 Kingman 7f 1m 24.30s
12.04s +1.30s
+0.19s 0.08s/f 96
95 Good Good

5:05 Alta Lilea 1m4f 2m 29.96s
12.5s +3.46s
+0.29s 0.08s/f 60
95 Good Good

5:35 Great Timing 1m 1m 38.50s
12.31s +2.50s
+0.31s 0.08s/f 67
100 Good Good
 
Having watched the replays, I'd agree 100% with EC - that none of the races were truly run.
The fastest, Producer's in particular, had virtually the whole field in a line abreast at the 2 pole, and any conclusions drawn on speed figures or finishing speed on the day are questionable, at best.
 
reet hard said:
4:35 Kingman 7f 1m 24.30s
12.04s +1.30s
+0.19s 0.08s/f 96
95 Good Good
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So they've keyed the whole card off Kingman's Topspeed (96) matching his RPR (95). Everything else on the card is at least a stone slow. Tenuous to say the least!

Besides Kingman, Timeform have Fig Roll (1st race) and Alta Lilea (6th race) running to a time in line with their ratings.
 
cheers Reet...i've got the weekender this morning ..just had a look

re Gareth's point- it does look odd..but every race was run slowly so being 20lb light on speed figure wouldn't be unusual.

like i said...a 107% finish for Fig Role for instance would point to about 20lb light from the data i've got from the AW..in fact at Newmarket it could be more as even pace is probably 98/99 rather than the 100 for AW tracks
 
But Topspeed doesn't use sectionals, does it? The method that Topspeed uses basically needs one or more easily-rated (in RPR terms, i.e. collateral form) races like a handicap to be truly run so that they can peg the race time as roughly equal to the RPR and then hang less-easily rated races (like maidens, small field conditions races) off of them. Here, they're using their RPR rating of a 2yo maiden - the least likely race for them to be able to rate accurately - to hang the whole set of Topspeed figures from.

It might be remarkable that Topspeed found Kingman's race to be the fastest of the day (when adjusted for age etc.). But.. its probably just circumstantial.
 
With 5 of the contestants having never run, and the remaining 4 having RPR swings of +23, +13, -13 and -32 from their sole previous outings, it's rather imaginative to suggest the race was used as a base for any handicap rating, is it not?
 
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I'm assuming they used some kind of standardisation / par rating adjusted for beaten distances to come up with the RPR.

Put it this way: if every race on a card is slowly run, how does Topspeed rate the races? They have no way of knowing how slow each race is since they don't use sectionals. So they always have to assume that at least one race - the fastest (after adjustments) - is truly run. That race gets a Topspeed rating around the RPR and all the others are calculated based on that.

But if that fastest race wasn't truly run, the whole card has been rated incorrectly. And, again, without using sectionals, their assumption is based on nothing but convenience.
 
EC

What sectional are you taking for Fig Roll? Again, camera angles mean estimation is required, but I got 23.8 for leader/wnr from 2f out which is 100.3%, Certainly closer to optimum than Kingman and also that it was truly run.

Can see where you/Reet come from with the visual interpretation though, with a number if fillies keen early.
 
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davidjohnson said:
EC

What sectional are you taking for Fig Roll? Again, camera angles mean estimation is required, but I got 23.8 for leader/wnr from 2f out which is 100.3%, Certainly closer to optimum than Kingman and also that it was truly run.

Can see where you/Reet come from with the visual interpretation though, with a number if fillies keen early.
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i'll have another look David but i got 22.4...its not easy trying to judge it i know..but we differ a lot there..i'll have another go

I might time the early sectionals of fig rolls race as well...you do get a side on with the first 2 furlongs which helps a lot
 
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davidjohnson said:
EC

What sectional are you taking for Fig Roll? Again, camera angles mean estimation is required, but I got 23.8 for leader/wnr from 2f out which is 100.3%, Certainly closer to optimum than Kingman and also that it was truly run.

Can see where you/Reet come from with the visual interpretation though, with a number if fillies keen early.
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just had another go at the last 2 furlongs..timed from "away"when commentator says "Barzelona nudging away"...got 23.0 seconds flat

parallax view pretty hard to judge when they away from rails isn't it?

the first two furlongs..which may tell us bugger all as standing start involved...25.3..roughly

23 seconds last two still makes it a 104%

lets say it was truly run..which i'm not convinced of...what rating can you accurately put on Fig Roll though?

I am surprised that Topspeed have actually marked all the races as slow...i don't recall seeing that before...as Gareth says they usually pin one as being par

this is one of the hardest cards to rate..in fact without accurate sectionals none of us can be sure of a figure for any of the races.
 
Yes. Never ideal taking a time when the furlong pole isn't in shot. Don't have huge experience taking them on July course either so harder to estimate to.

On form and time Timeform have Fig Roll in the low 90s, as I said earlier on thread, bunched finish makes me uncomfortable going higher.

Tell Gosden's to get a shift on and get him out again so we can find out!
 
Was it me or did James Willoughby allude to the name having been saved for quite a few years waiting for the right horse?

I only caught then end of what he was saying but that's what it seemed like. Anyone else throw some light on this?
 
I think there may be a way of putting a going allowance on Saturdays meeting using the last race on Friday....which was easily the fastest race on that card

Tax Free a fast ground horse won that race in 58.18...on my reckoning that race made the ground just riding Good to firm ...going allowance = 22lb fast per mile on my figures.

If I then use that same allowance for Saturdays meeting I get

Fig Roll = 95
Kingman = 103
Producer = 99

at least that is using a true run race for comparison anyway...best i can come up with
 
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The races on Friday night were displaying a huge bias towards those at the front. Nothing was coming from behind due to rain on top of the good to firm ground. Tax Free and Gladiatrix sat just off the pace, kicked on 2 out and nothing got to them.

Not sure how that would affect the analysis though.
 
simmo said:
The races on Friday night were displaying a huge bias towards those at the front. Nothing was coming from behind due to rain on top of the good to firm ground. Tax Free and Gladiatrix sat just off the pace, kicked on 2 out and nothing got to them.

Not sure how that would affect the analysis though.
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It may well have dried up a bit Saturday Simmo as well but that race Friday looks to fit well with Saturdays ..if anything can...like i said..its nearest we can get to find a marker race
 
davidjohnson said:
No sectionals EC. I had the finishing speed as slightly slower than that, recording 23.3 sec for Kingman last 2f, but wasn't completely happy with the camerawork, and admit it is an estimation.
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I took a stab at it and had him coming home in a similar time (between 23.3-23.5).

Incidentally, taking his "finishing %" using the above would give something like 103.4% which, in my experience (of doing sectional times for Irish racing) would be only marginally above 'par' for a 2yo maiden - presuming the 'par' for the track is 100% - which it almost certainly isn't at Newmarket given the topography of the course.

On a broader point, what we really need is a list of 'sectional pars' for each track and distance where sectionals are feasible (which may not be enough in the UK to make it worthwhile actually); it's doable manually provided you have markers that are stationary (and plenty of time on your hands). Expecting a horse to run the last 2f at Ascot or Pontefract in the same % as at Lingfield just isn't feasible at all. Without that information to hand I would be fairly wary of extrapolating provisional figures based on sectionals.

Interesting thread.
 
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Indeed Trackside. Simon Rowlands has plenty of data for the AW tracks as well as Ascot, Newmarket Rowley and some for Newmarket July. Optimum for last 2f calculated as under 99%, so not a huge mark up for the winner by any means, hence why I had him 106 rather than just the bare time figure.

I do like using sectionals to further inform in maidens and 3-y-o handicaps. I find them most useful in these kinds of races where public info regarding the horses true ability is incomplete.
 
I have Kingman's unadjusted time rating on 96. Very good for a debutant but below one or two royal Ascot performances, though 10lbs better than Berkshire.
 
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