Ladbrokes Trophy Chase. Newbury. December 2nd.

M

Marb

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This used to be known as The Hennessey, and should be as competitive event as ever this year. There are plenty of Irish entries. I can't pretend I know the winner, but VYTA DU ROC looks a value price, at this early stage. This is what I have read into his career so far. He was a fair fifth in at Scottish National, and good second in the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown, (this was the last time we saw him, at back end of last season).

He was sixth in the very race last season on a rating of 143, when quite well fancied in the betting at 8/1. He certainly needs to improve a notch or two to get anywhere near to winning a showcase handicap in 2017/2018, but at least he's been thereabouts at the business end in these type of events. If Nicky Henderson could get more improvement, Vyta Du Roc could get his head in front in one these, still only eights year of age. He's on a mark of 140 now, which looks workable, based on his overall profile.

He beat Minella Rocco, now on 166, off level weights eighteen months ago. He must possess a bit of class. Whilst he's not nailed on at this early stage, Vyta Due Roc looks excellent value at prices of 33/1. Perhaps some proper soft ground may do the trick, (he seems better with cut in the ground). I just hope he makes it on the day, and the heavens open!
 
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I printed off a list of the field (in order or OR) last night with a view to spending some time on it this week - distraction therapy in an attempt to combat depression without resorting to medication! - and VDR was one of the ones that immediately caught my eye.

However, I expect he'll be regarded generally as exposed and lacking the steep-curve profile associated with modern winners of the race therefore I also expect he'll still be 33/1 or more in the week leading up to the race so I'm happy to hold off for the time being.

I also expect Smad Place (159) to be up about 6lbs when his new OR is published during the week, otherwise I could have fancied him given how impressive he was in winning it off 155 a couple of years ago and how that form subsequently worked out. I think I read somewhere, though, that he won't go for the race.

Singlefarmpayment, though, remains my idea of the winner but I've still to back him. Must fix that.
 
50% of bookies still quoting prices about Coneygree for this. That sort of shi*t really gets on my nerves. :mad:

With so many un-rated Irish entries, it's hard to get any kind of handle on the race at this stage, though would agree with DO's assessment that VDR doesn't look progressive enough. I'd further agree with his assessment that SFP commands plenty of respect.
 
The Hennessy has so much history attached to it it's sad to see the name go and replaced with THAT!!!!!

Others like the Kempton Park Handicap Hurdle which was renamed to the Christmas Hurdle was an improvement

BUT How on earth did we end up with Jane Seymour Mares' Novices' Hurdle a Grade 2 run at Sandown?





The Massey Ferguson
 
Fair enough, archie.

There's seemingly no limits to how much shi*te the Bradstock's can trot out. He is a million to make the Hennessy, imo.
 
I've already backed Singlefarmpayment at 16/1 and American at 14/1 both each way antepost early doors for this. I really can't see too far past the pair of them. Although I'll certainly look at the final decs and play around with my position.
 
Desert Orchid said:
However, I expect he'll be regarded generally as exposed and lacking the steep-curve profile associated with modern winners of the race therefore I also expect he'll still be 33/1 or more in the week leading up to the race so I'm happy to hold off for the time being..
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Points taken, DO.

He might be exposed and won't find anything this season, (which I think is what you're saying), I accept that, but he can't be badly handicapped off 140 on what he's done. Being exposed and badly handicapped may be two different things I guess. He's looking at being weighted between 10 stone and 10:6. I plan to chip away at the price the next few weeks, hope for everything to go right, including the ground being soft.
 
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I suppose I'm really saying I think he could run as well as we could hope and still find some future superstar laughing at him.
 
The weights

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Total Recall and SFP look to be on handy weights. No surprise they’re at the head of the market.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I also expect Smad Place (159) to be up about 6lbs when his new OR is published during the week, otherwise I could have fancied him given how impressive he was in winning it off 155 a couple of years ago and how that form subsequently worked out. .
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Smad Place is a good horse but he's had his day. I was arguing he was better than he turned out to be a couple years back. If he wins this again, off 11:11 this time around, I'll commit harry carry, so that I never watch horse racing again.

As punters trying to get edges or decent angles... we need weights and measurements to really matter in showcase handicaps.

For example, on the flat, I'm tired of seeing the same old... badly handicapped. older exposed horses, bolting up every Saturday in the big handicaps.

The Roger Charlton / Tony Bloom horse that hacked up off bottom weight in The Ceserewitch a few weeks ago is the best thing that's happened in flat racing in a long time.

I just want to see the lower weighted horses serve it up to the higher rated horses for a change.

I'd have nothing against a in-form Coneygree winning this race off 11:12,, as he is different class to Smad Place.

Anyways, I'm happy with Vyta Du Rocs weight of 10:1.

IF carrying lower weights still actually matters, he's a nice each way chance.
 
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Maruco said:
I've already backed Singlefarmpayment at 16/1 and American at 14/1 both each way antepost early doors for this. I really can't see too far past the pair of them. Although I'll certainly look at the final decs and play around with my position.
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I’ve done similar at similar prices.

Drop of rain would suit American.
 
Yes agree Ivan. Although good to soft is fine, anything softer would be perfect.

Now the weights are out I'm going for a bit of cover on Total Recall too. I also had a sneaky look at Vyta du Roc just like Marble but didn't press the button as I suspect he may not get a run.
 
Unless Gigginstown treat this like a run of the mill handicap chase in Ireland, declaring all fifteen of their entries!
 
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Vyta Du Roc will be very unlucky not to make the cut. He's off 140 while 138 and 139 have made the cut in recent years.

I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't a cut, in fact. I'm not sure there will be a maximum field.
 
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Number 47 on the list Martin. I'm not sure typically where the cut off has been. Anyone have the stats.

I take your point with the Gigi entries, but he's a long way down and needs a lot of defections. I'm not saying he won't get in, just that from my own perspective it leaves me preferring to wait.
 
Yes Mo but it looks very compressed this time round don't you think?

Have you got your long lists for the last couple of years reasonably easy to hang for comparison where the cut was at this stage? I reckon VdR might be pretty close to it.
 
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