Ladbrokes Trophy Chase. Newbury. December 2nd.

Reverting the Victor Chandler Chase (or whatever it's called now) over 2 mile in January at Ascot to a handicap would be a great start.
 
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I've just watched the race again.

First of all, it was a terrific race.

However, I do think both Total Recall and Whisper had very, very hard races. It remains to be seen how they recover. I think I'd be reluctant to get involved with either before Cheltenham or Aintree.

I still think SFP got a woeful ride. If anything it looks worse second time around. The Pilgrim beastie is usually subjected to exaggerated waiting tactics but even he had quietly got on to the heels of the main group by the cross fence and SFP was behind him, at one point by some way, until making ground stylishly after the cross fence. I think SFP must have used up a lot of energy to get on to the heels of Total Recall three out so his fall might have been due to running out of puff. He had been ridden away from four out whereas even Pilgrim's had still to be asked anything serious.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've just watched the race again.

First of all, it was a terrific race.

However, I do think both Total Recall and Whisper had very, very hard races. It remains to be seen how they recover. I think I'd be reluctant to get involved with either before Cheltenham or Aintree.

I still think SFP got a woeful ride. If anything it looks worse second time around. The Pilgrim beastie is usually subjected to exaggerated waiting tactics but even he had quietly got on to the heels of the main group by the cross fence and SFP was behind him, at one point by some way, until making ground stylishly after the cross fence. I think SFP must have used up a lot of energy to get on to the heels of Total Recall three out so his fall might have been due to running out of puff. He had been ridden away from four out whereas even Pilgrim's had still to be asked anything serious.
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That’s the way I saw it too. Shocking ride from Heskin


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Singlefarmpayment, while undoubtedly talented, is becoming an expensive horse to follow - for whatever reasons - and despite being 1/7 over fences has been creeping up the weights. Though you wouldn't expect a change in his mark after Saturday.
 
Whisper has been upped 12lb to 169 so Total Recall should expect to get a BHA mark in the mid 150s next time he comes over, assuming he doesn't do anything in the meantime. I reckon that'd leave him with about 11st 6lb at Aintree, which wouldn't necessarily be insurmountable.

I'd be just as interested in Beware The Bear though off his new mark of 150 if Hendo doesn't fcuk that up before April.
 
wilsonl said:
Whisper has been upped 12lb to 169 so Total Recall should expect to get a BHA mark in the mid 150s next time he comes over, assuming he doesn't do anything in the meantime. I reckon that'd leave him with about 11st 6lb at Aintree, which wouldn't necessarily be insurmountable.
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Cheers, wilsonl.

If Whisper is up to 169 and Total Recall has beaten him in receipt of 14lbs (off 147) there is no way TR will go up less than 12lbs, more likely 13lbs. So he'll almost certainly be off 160 if entered in future handicaps. Bearing in mind the handicapper will drop any entry rated in the mid 160s a pound or three to entice them to run, I'd imagine 11-6 would be the very least he's likely to humph. At this stage, I'm not convinced I could fancy him to be placed off that kind of mark.

There also has to be a chance that Mullins used TR as a marker for something else he fancies for the National.


Edit - just checked and the 12lbs doesn't include the 4lb penalty so effectively he's only gone up 8lbs, so you're right about a mid-150s mark for TR, probably 156, maybe 157. He'd still need to be a Gold Cup contender to win the National off that mark and he'll be a short price.
 
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Just checked the Irish Turf Club site.

TR has indeed been raised to 156. This would have been arrived at in consultation with the UK handicapper.
 
While WPM said Total Recall might be a National rather than a Gold Cup horse, he didn't specify which National he had in mind.

It might easily turn out to be the Irish version, which went up significantly in value last year.
 
This 'memory' appeared on my FB page this morning, from two years ago. I'd titled it, "If Carlsberg did Hennessys"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0iV8dg1qnBQ

I added:
In the days when the ORs were on the 0-100 (at 12-7) scale Galway Blaze ran off 61 (10-0). He got a bit of a hike (to something like 73) for that but never ran again that season due to injury. They broke the track record that day on good ground but were strung out at the end. Notice how often Mark Dwyer looks around from the end of the back straight. He beat Run And Skip (won another three or four races including the Welsh National and was only 15/2 in the Gold Cup won by Dawn Run. Third was Door Latch (hacked up next time out from West Tip and Burrough Hill Lad in the SGB). Third was Glyde Court who went on to win the Kim Muir. Next was Rhyme 'n' Reason, then Elmboy, second (lame) to Run And Skip on his only subsequent run, then Maori Venture who won two of his next three races. Further back were the likes of Charter Party and By The Way. It was a phenomenal race. Every time something came out and won the handicapper went back and raised Galway Blaze's mark until he eventually finished the season rated 100. This was a horse that carried 10-0 in that Hennessy.
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It's still my favourite renewal.
 
My take on the race:
I think the first thing to say about the Hennessy (Ladbrokes) is that it looks ridiculously hot, just as it did beforehand. However, there’s one columnist in the Weekender hell-bent on dissing it. The guy has form, always dissing the National – before AND after, regardless of how good a race it is – and he’s clueless in general at the best of times. I’ve never quite understood how he gets the gig in the paper.

On going officially described as good to soft and with going stick readings that would indicate heavy at some tracks, three of the four chases were run faster than the old standard times despite race distance increases of 42-64 yards. The Hennessy itself was faster than the current RP Standard Time. Overtown Express went up to a modest (for the form, going by my figures) 150 but Total Recall was 15lbs faster and 17lbs faster than Elegant Escape in the big novices’ chase. That might not seem outlandish but bear in mind that Whisper gave Total Recall a stone. That would make Whisper a 185 horse, putting him up alongside the likes of Denman and Burrough Hill Lad in the pantheon of Hennessy gods.

The other implication, though, is that those figures make Regal Encore, Braqueur D’Or and Pilgrims Bay very uncomfortably high. Too high for my liking. ‘Way too high.

I’ve taken a middle-ground approach, rating Regal Encore as a winner of a decent Class 2 Saturday handicap. This allows him and Pilgrims Bay a few pounds’ improvement with Braqueur D’Or just a pound off his best. I won’t regard these figures as accurate for the time being; rather, an indication of the form and we’ll see how it goes. It suggests Singlefarmpayment, on [my figure for] his Ultima run, would have been right up there disputing it at the line. I don’t believe he would on the day as the more I watch the replay the more shocked I am at the dreadful ride Heskin gave him. Having said that, the Weekender paddock/race analyst said, “The unlucky horse of the race was Singlefarmpayment, who was creeping into contention and flew the fourth-last only to fall at the next.”

Clearly some of the fancied runners haven’t run their race. American didn’t jump well and came back with a loose shoe and an injury. SFP tipped up. Coneygree, backed from 18/1 into 8/1, engaged reverse gear in the back straight for the final time. A Genie In Abottle and Vyta Du Roc never got into it from the rear. Present man probably left his chance at Wincanton and Cogry’s jumping let him down. Those things happen in Grand Nationals but it still usually takes an awesome performance to win it.

Whisper has put up the kind of performance that would entitle him to serious consideration for the Gold Cup. Whether Total Recall can improve another stone to close the gap I’m not sure.
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Whisper has put up the kind of performance that would entitle him to serious consideration for the Gold Cup. Whether Total Recall can improve another stone to close the gap I’m not sure.
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WPM presumably agrees with you. He spole the next day about Total Recall getting a Gold Cup entry but maybe not running in it if he was only good enough to finish 4th or 5th. The clear implication from that is that Whisper is good enough to be in the frame.
 
Marble said:
This used to be known as The Hennessey, and should be as competitive event as ever this year. There are plenty of Irish entries. I can't pretend I know the winner, but VYTA DU ROC looks a value price, at this early stage. This is what I have read into his career so far. He was a fair fifth in at Scottish National, and good second in the Bet 365 Gold Cup at Sandown, (this was the last time we saw him, at back end of last season).

He was sixth in the very race last season on a rating of 143, when quite well fancied in the betting at 8/1. He certainly needs to improve a notch or two to get anywhere near to winning a showcase handicap in 2017/2018, but at least he's been thereabouts at the business end in these type of events. If Nicky Henderson could get more improvement, Vyta Du Roc could get his head in front in one these, still only eights year of age. He's on a mark of 140 now, which looks workable, based on his overall profile.

He beat Minella Rocco, now on 166, off level weights eighteen months ago. He must possess a bit of class. Whilst he's not nailed on at this early stage, Vyta Due Roc looks excellent value at prices of 33/1. Perhaps some proper soft ground may do the trick, (he seems better with cut in the ground). I just hope he makes it on the day, and the heavens open!
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The back-it next time system nailed this today!

The Grand National a potential target. Euro said this earlier in the season.
 
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Not so sure now, he ran in the race he won today last year and was pulled up. He could be a small field horse - his best run before today was in the Reynoldstown. Yes he ran well in the Whitbread but that had only 13 runners. Any more than that and I'd be concerned. Cheek pieces may help though.
 
I see one of the guys in the Weekender is dissing the Newbury form.

These guys just don't get it.

We're talking the most important handicap outside of the National, contested only by horses whose connections believe them to be very well handicapped and which is invariably ultra-competitive.

People think nothing of National horses not winning again. They see it as part and parcel of winning the race yet for some reason the Hennessy is supposed to be different?
 
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